Author: Consultant

Monday September 8

China trade surplus, aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans

Japan GDP and bank lending

Germany industrial production and trade surplus

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for July.

Earnings include: Major Drilling International Inc.; North West Co. Inc.

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Tuesday September 9

China foreign reserves

Japan machine tool orders

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for August.

Earnings include: GameStop Corp.; Synopsys Inc.

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Wednesday September 10

China CPI and PPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI for August. The Street expects a month-over-month gain of 0.3 per cent and a rise of 3.4 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for July.

Earnings include: Adobe Systems Inc.; Evertz Technologies Inc.; Groupe Dynamite Inc.

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Thursday September 11

ECB monetary policy meeting

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s National Balance Sheet and Financial Flow Accounts for Q2

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Sept. 6. Estimate is 235,000, down 2,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for August. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.3 per cent from July and up 2.9 per cent year-over-year.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. federal budget balance for August.

Earnings include: Empire Co. Ltd.; Kroger Co.

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Friday September 12

Japan industrial production

Germany CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for July. Estimate is a month-over-month increase of 5 per cent (versus a decline of 9 per cent in June).

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s capacity utilization for Q2.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for September.

Earnings include: Asante Gold Corp.

Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to fast-track the group’s next oil production increase, moving up a supply hike originally scheduled for late 2026. Friday, September 5, 2025 OPEC+ Flirts with Unwinding Ahead of Sunday Meeting. According to media reports, OPEC+ will consider unwinding the second layer of its voluntary cuts – totalling 1.65 million b/d – more than a year ahead of schedule at its upcoming meeting on Sunday, citing the need to regain market share.  US Biofuels Imports Tanks as Import Credits Vanish. US imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel collapsed in the first half of 2025 after the scrapping of tax credits for imported biofuels eliminated any business case for it, with only 7,000 b/d flowing in (equivalent to one-tenth of last year’s volumes).  Dangote’s Leaking Gasoline Engine Stalls. A catalyst leak at the residue fluid catalytic cracking unit of Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery might halt gasoline production for 2-3 months, depriving the country of 200,000 b/d output and sending European gasoline cracks to their highest since May 2024 Denmark’s Wind Giant Picks a Fight with Trump. Danish offshore wind developer Orsted (COP:ORSTED), teaming up with the states of Rhode Island and Connecticut, sued the Trump administration for the forced halt of its nearly finished Revolution Wind project, deeming it illegal.  Conoco Trims Headcount as Strategy Shifts Gear. US oil major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) will lay off 20–25% of its global workforce by the end of this year, affecting up to 3,250 employees as part of a broad restructuring, citing a rise in controllable costs to $13/barrel now from $11/barrel in 2021. Iraq Eyes Storage Beyond the Hormuz. Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO has signed a storage deal with Oman’s OQ to build a crude storage tank farm at the latter’s port of Ras Markaz with an initial capacity of 10 million barrels, seeking to de-risk some of its oil exports from tensions in the Arab Gulf.   Trump Takes a Move Against Shipping Fuels. The US State Department has been reaching out to other countries to reject the United Nations’ IMO ‘Net Zero Framework’, imposing a fee on ships that breach global emissions standards, or otherwise face tariffs, visa restrictions and additional port levies.  Exxon Sees No Future for Europe’s Chemicals. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is reportedly seeking to divest its European chemical plants in the UK and Belgium for up to $1 billion, whilst simultaneously assessing the possibility of shutting them down for good in case buying interest is weak. Italy Seeks Supply Guarantees from Azerbaijan. The Italian government has been in talks with Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR, reportedly closing in on a deal to buy privately owned local refiner IP for approximately $3 billion, demanding guarantees for security of supply and jobs.  Guyana to Launch New Auction in 2026. The government of Guyana is planning to launch its next offshore licensing round in early 2026, postponing it to after the country’s general elections wrap up this month, as winners of the previous 2022 auction are still to be awarded their respective blocks.  Korea Delays Key Exploration Well. South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced that its 2026 budget does not contain any provisions for the Blue Whale deepwater project in the Ulleung Basin, derailing the country’s biggest hope for a first-ever commercial oil discovery.  Russia Boosts China Oil Export Options. Russia’s state oil company Rosneft (MOEX:ROSN) agreed to supply an additional 2.5 million tonnes per year (50,000 b/d) of crude to China through Kazakhstan, over and above the 200,000 b/d it already does under a 10-year term contract re-signed in 2022. Japan’s Top Copper Smelter to Cut Capacity. Japan’s leading copper smelter JX Advanced Metals (TYO:5016) mulls curbing production by tends of thousands of metric tonnes this year and will unveil a roadmap to reduce smelting capacity by March 2026, as tumbling treatment fees have eroded margins.

The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, while hiring by private employers slowed in August, offering further evidence that labour market conditions were softening.

The reports on Thursday came on the heels of government data on Wednesday showing there were more unemployed people than positions available in July for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Job growth has shifted into stall speed, with economists blaming President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that is hampering hiring at construction sites and restaurants.

The slackening labour market likely positions the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates later this month, though much would depend on August’s employment report that is scheduled to be published on Friday.

“We continue to see softness growing in the labor market as tariff policy uncertainty lingers, immigration changes take effect, and AI adoption grows,” said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management. “The silver lining is the weaker the jobs data, the more cover there is for stimulative interest rate cuts that are on the horizon.”

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000 for the week ended August 30, the Labour Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week. There were significant increases in unadjusted claims in Connecticut and Tennessee.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid slipped 4,000 to 1.940 million during the week ending Aug. 23, the claims report showed.

The still-high so-called continued claims are a reflection of a reluctance by businesses to increase headcount. The Fed’s Beige Book report on Wednesday noted that “firms were hesitant to hire workers because of weaker demand or uncertainty.”

U.S. stocks opened mixed. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.

The claims data have no bearing on the closely watched employment report for August scheduled to be released on Friday as they fall outside the survey period.

Economists are bracing for another month of tepid job growth. Those expectations were reinforced by the ADP National Employment Report showing private employment increased by 54,000 jobs last month after advancing 106,000 in July. Economists had forecast private employment increasing by 65,000 jobs.

A Reuters survey of economists expects the employment report will likely show nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 jobs in August after rising by 73,000 in July.

Employment gains averaged 35,000 jobs per month over the last three months compared to 123,000 during the same period in 2024, the government reported in August. The unemployment rate is forecast to climb to 4.3 per cent from 4.2 per cent in July.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell last month signalled a possible rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s Sept. 16-17 policy meeting, acknowledging the rising labour market risks, but also added that inflation remained a threat.

The Fed has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent range since December.

Canadian exports rose for the third consecutive month in July, narrowing the country’s trade deficit with the world and increasing its trade surplus with the United States.

Statistics Canada reported on Thursday that exports rose 0.9 per cent, while imports fell by 0.7 per cent, reducing Canada’s trade deficit to $4.9-billion from $6-billion.

Exports have been modestly rising over the last three months after taking a major hit in April as tariffs came into effect. As a result, economists expect net trade to boost economic growth in the third quarter, despite the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs on strategic sectors.

“Canadian exports and the goods trade deficit began to stabilize in July, albeit at weaker levels than prevailed before U.S. tariffs and related uncertainty took hold,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham in a client note.

After falling by 11.2 per cent in April, exports have increased by 3 per cent since then, leaving export levels still significantly lower than before the trade war.

Energy exports rose by 4.2 per cent in July, following five consecutive monthly declines. Exports of motor vehicles and parts also saw a sizeable bump, rising 6.6 per cent.

The increase in overall exports was partially offset by a decline in unwrought gold exports, which fell by 12.2 per cent.

Meanwhile, Statscan said a decline in machinery imports was the largest contributor to the overall decrease in imports in July.

Imports from the United States also fell, exports rose, widening Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. to $6.7-billion in July from $3.7-billion in June. This marks the largest trade surplus with the U.S. since March.

Most Canadian goods continue to cross the U.S. border tariff-free, due to a tariff exemption on products that are compliant with the United-States-Mexico-Canada agreement. However, the steel and aluminum sectors continue to face 50 per cent tariffs.

The automotive sector also faces 25-per-cent tariffs on the non-U.S. content in USMCA-compliant vehicles, while vehicles that do not meet the rules of origin under the trade deal face an outright 25-per-cent tariff.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday that he’s expecting to reach agreements with the U.S. on some strategic sectors affected by tariffs, though he tempered expectations on when that might happen.

Mr. Carney dropped many of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. recently in hopes of furthering trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.

 The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX) on Wednesday reported fiscal second-quarter profit of $38 million.

On a per-share basis, the Waterloo, Ontario-based company said it had net income of 43 cents.

The results did not meet Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of three analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 49 cents per share.

The logistics provider posted revenue of $179.8 million in the period, topping Street forecasts. Three analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $177.2 million.

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This story was generated by Automated Insights 

http://automatedinsights.com/ap

Quarterly Highlights

• Net earnings attributable to shareholders of the Corporation were $782.5 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 compared with $790.8 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Adjusted net earnings attributable to shareholders of the Corporation¹ were approximately $737.0 million compared with $790.0 million for the corresponding quarter of last year, representing a decrease of 6.7%.
  
• Net earnings attributable to shareholders of the Corporation were $0.82 per diluted share for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 compared with $0.83 per diluted share for the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Adjusted diluted net earnings per share¹ were $0.78, representing a decrease of 6.0% from $0.83 for the corresponding quarter of last year.
  
• Total merchandise and service revenues of $4.7 billion, an increase of 4.5%. Same-store merchandise revenues² increased by 0.4% in the United States, by 3.8% in Europe and other regions¹, and by 4.1% in Canada.
  
• Merchandise and service gross margin¹ increased by 0.9% in the United States to 34.6%, while it decreased by 0.9% in Europe and other regions to 38.9%, and by 0.9% in Canada to 33.9%.
  
• Same-store road transportation fuel volumes decreased by 0.9% in the United States, and by 1.3% in Europe and other regions, while it increased by 2.2% in Canada.
  
• Road transportation fuel gross margin¹ of 44.00¢ per gallon in the United States, a decrease of 4.13¢ per gallon, US 11.41¢ per liter in Europe and other regions, an increase of US 2.73¢ per liter, and CA 14.21¢ per liter in Canada, an increase of CA 1.10¢ per liter.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/alimentation-couche-tard-announces-its-results-for-its-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year-2026-851340241.html

Monday September 1

Canadian and U.S. markets closed (Labour Day)

China manufacturing, non-manufacturing and composite PMI

Japan capital spending and manufacturing PMI

Euro zone jobless rate and manufacturing PMI

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Tuesday September 2

Euro zone CPI

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for July. The Street is projecting a month-over-month decline of 0.2 per cent.

Also: U.S. and Canadian vehicle sales for August.

Earnings include: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.; Zscaler Inc.

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Wednesday September 3

Japan and Euro zone services and composite PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian labour productivity for Q2.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey for July.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for July. Consensus is a month-over-month decline of 1.4 per cent.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Beige Book is released.

Earnings include: Descartes Systems Group Inc.; Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.; Northwest Co. Inc.; Salesforce Inc.

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Thursday September 4

Euro zone retail sales

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment for August.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for July.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of August 30. Estimate is 233,000, up 4,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity for Q2. The Street is estimating an annualized rate rise of 2.9 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for July.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for August.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services/Composite PMI for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for August.

Earnings include: Broadcom Inc.; Enghouse Systems Group Ltd.; Lululemon Athletica Inc.; Transcontinental Inc.

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Friday September 5

Japan real cash earnings and household spending.

Germany factory orders

Euro zone real GDP

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for August. The Street is expecting a relatively flat reading (a gain of 10,000 jobs) with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 per cent to 7.0 per cent and average hourly wages rising 3.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August. Consensus is a rise of 75,000 jobs month-over-month with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent and average hourly earnings up 0.3 per cent (or 3.7 per cent year-over-year).

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for August.

• The personal consumption expenditures price index showed that core inflation ran at a 2.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate in July, meeting estimates but higher than June.
• Consumer spending increased 0.5% on the month, in line with forecasts and indicative of strength despite the higher prices. Personal income accelerated 0.4%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/pce-inflation-report-july-2025.html

Canada’s economy contracted in the second quarter by a much larger degree than anticipated on an annualized basis as U.S. tariffs squeezed exports, but higher household and government spending cushioned some of the impact, data showed on Friday.

The GDP for the quarter that ended June 30 decelerated by 1.6 per cent on an annualized basis from a downwardly revised growth of 2.0 per cent posted in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said, taking the total annualized growth in the first six months of the year to 0.4 per cent.

This was the first quarterly contraction in seven quarters.

How today’s surprisingly weak GDP report has shifted market and economist views for future BoC rate cuts

Canada’s annual job growth barely above zero in June, payroll survey shows

U.S. trade tensions drag down already weak business creation in Canada

A larger-than-expected deceleration in growth could boost chances of rate cut by the Bank of Canada in September. The central bank has kept rates steady at 2.75 per cent at its last three meetings.

Money markets increased their bets of a rate cut on September 17 to 48 per cent after the GDP data was released from 40 per cent before.

Statscan said the economy contracted by 0.1 per cent in June, mainly led by a decline in output from goods-producing industries, which accounts for a quarter of the country’s GDP.

The quarterly GDP is calculated based on income and expenditure while the monthly GDP is derived from industrial output.

This is the third month in a row that the GDP, based on industry output declined and was the first time in three years that the economy contracted for three consecutive months.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast second quarter GDP to contract by 0.6 per cent and the June monthly GDP to expand by 0.1 per cent.

An advance estimate for July showed the economy could likely grow by 0.1 per cent on a month-on-month basis, signalling that the third quarter might not be as bad as the previous one.

The Canadian dollar traded down 0.17 per cent to 1.3771 to the U.S. dollar, or 72.62 U.S. cents. Yields on the two-year government bonds dropped further after the data fell by 2.8 basis points to 2.664 per cent.

Exports, mainly responsible for sinking the economy in the second quarter, declined 7.5 per cent in the second quarter, the statistics agency said, adding this was the biggest drop in five years.

Business investment in machinery and equipment also contracted for the first time since the pandemic, with investments falling 0.6 per cent in Q2.

However, some silver lining in the second quarter came from a 3.5 per cent growth in the final domestic demand, an indicator of the health of the domestic economy.

This was mainly boosted by household final consumption expenditure which jumped by 4.5 per cent on an annualized basis, residential investments which rose 6.3 per cent and government final consumption expenditure which surged by 5.1 per cent, Statscan noted.