Author: Consultant

  • Linamar Corp (LNR.TO) 10D 30M

    Summary

    • Linamar (LNR.TO) fell from C$109.00 on August 21 to C$99.06 on August 28, a five-session price decline of C$9.94, or 9.1%.
    • The main catalyst was the proposed 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian vehicles and automotive parts, potentially starting January 1, 2027.
    • Approximately C$9.38 of the C$9.94 decline occurred on August 24, immediately following the tariff announcement.
    • Linamar went ex-dividend for C$0.32 per share on August 24. Including that dividend, the five-day shareholder return was approximately −8.8%.
    • The decline reflected a reassessment of future tariff exposure—not weak second-quarter operating results.

    Five-day performance

    DateClose (C$)Daily changeExplanation
    Aug. 21109.00+4.21%Strong pre-announcement rally; stock reached a C$110.58 high
    Aug. 2499.62−8.61%Proposed 50% tariffs on Canadian automotive parts
    Aug. 2598.28−1.35%Continued tariff-related selling
    Aug. 2696.89−1.41%Stock reached its five-day closing low
    Aug. 2798.38+1.54%Bargain buying and stabilization
    Aug. 2899.06+0.69%Modest recovery continued
    Five-session price change−9.12%

    Price data: WSJ historical prices.

    Why Linamar fell

    1. A critical tariff exemption was put at risk

    Before the announcement, most USMCA-compliant Canadian automotive parts could enter the United States tariff-free. This protection was important to Linamar: the company had indicated that products responsible for more than 60% of earnings were being sold tariff-free under existing arrangements.

    On August 24, President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on all Canadian cars, trucks and automotive parts, beginning January 1, 2027. The expanded reference to parts directly threatened the exemption supporting Linamar’s outlook. Reuters.

    Potential consequences include:

    • Higher costs on parts shipped from Canada to U.S. customers.
    • Lower production volumes if automakers reduce Canadian output.
    • Pressure to relocate additional production to the United States.
    • Higher capital expenditures and restructuring costs.
    • Margin pressure if Linamar cannot pass tariffs to customers.

    The actual financial effect remains unknown because detailed tariff regulations, exemptions and country-of-origin rules have not been published.

    2. The stock was vulnerable after reaching a 52-week high

    Linamar closed at C$109.00 on August 21 after reaching C$110.58, its 52-week high. The stock had risen 4.2% that day.

    Consequently, the tariff announcement triggered both:

    • A fundamental reassessment of future earnings; and
    • Profit-taking after the recent rally.

    Trading volume rose to approximately 291,000 shares on August 24, almost twice its recent average volume, confirming unusually heavy selling.

    3. Ex-dividend adjustment

    Linamar began trading without entitlement to its C$0.32 quarterly dividend on August 24. The ex-dividend adjustment accounted for approximately 0.3 percentage points of Monday’s decline.

    Therefore:

    • Price return: approximately −9.1%
    • Return including dividend: approximately −8.8%

    The dividend was a minor factor; tariffs caused most of the decline.

    Fundamental position

    Linamar’s latest results were comparatively strong:

    Q2 2026 measureResultYoY change
    RevenueC$3.14 billion+18.8%
    Net incomeC$183.1 million+44%
    EPSC$3.09Up from C$2.12
    Net margin5.8%Up from 4.8%

    Management maintained its expectation for record 2026 sales and earnings, stating that most Mobility and Industrial products were USMCA-compliant and tariff-free under the rules then in force. Linamar Q2 report.

    The August 24 proposal challenged that assumption, explaining why the market repriced the stock despite solid recent results.

    Short-term scenarios

    ScenarioDevelopmentPossible market response
    BullUSMCA-compliant parts remain exempt or tariffs are reducedRecovery toward C$104–C$109
    BaseThreat remains unresolved without formal implementation detailsTrading range around C$96–C$102
    Bear50% tariff is formally applied to Canadian-made componentsBreak below C$96, potentially toward C$90–C$93

    These are scenario ranges, not price targets.

    What would disprove the negative thesis?

    • Confirmation that USMCA-compliant parts remain tariff-free.
    • A renewed U.S.–Canada agreement before January 2027.
    • Linamar quantifying the exposure and maintaining its earnings outlook.
    • Evidence that U.S. and Mexican production can offset Canadian exposure without material additional costs.
    • A sustained recovery above approximately C$104, followed by a move through C$109–C$111.

    Actionable Takeaways

    Linamar’s decline was principally a tariff-risk shock. The recovery on Thursday and Friday suggests that panic selling eased, but the stock remains roughly 9% below its August 21 close. Near-term direction will likely depend more on U.S.–Canada trade announcements than on current earnings.

    Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.

  • Magna International  Inc (MG.TO): 10D 30M

    Summary

    • Magna International (MG.TO) fell from C$100.44 on August 21 to C$91.48 on August 28, a five-session decline of C$8.96, or 8.9%.
    • The principal catalyst was the renewed threat of a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian vehicles and automotive parts, potentially beginning January 1, 2027.
    • Most of the damage occurred Monday and Tuesday: the shares dropped 6.6% and 2.7%, respectively.
    • The stock then stabilized around C$91–C$92, indicating that immediate panic selling eased but tariff uncertainty remained.
    • The decline was primarily policy-driven, not caused by a new deterioration in Magna’s reported operating results.

    Five-day performance

    DateClose (C$)Daily moveMain interpretation
    Aug. 21100.44+3.53%Starting point; strong pre-tariff-threat close
    Aug. 2493.85−6.56%Trade talks collapsed; 50% auto-tariff threat
    Aug. 2591.31−2.71%Continued reassessment of earnings and production risk
    Aug. 2691.50+0.21%Selling pressure temporarily stabilized
    Aug. 2791.04−0.50%Uncertainty remained
    Aug. 2891.48+0.48%Limited bargain buying
    Five-session change−8.92%

    Price data: MG.TO historical prices.

    Key drivers

    1. U.S.–Canada auto-tariff escalation

    On August 24, President Trump threatened to raise U.S. tariffs on Canadian-made cars, trucks and automotive parts to 50% starting January 1, 2027. The proposed trade agreement would instead have reduced the tariff on Canadian cars and light trucks from 25% to 15%. Reuters.

    This matters to Magna because it is deeply integrated into North American vehicle production. Potential consequences include:

    • Lower Canadian vehicle production.
    • Higher costs for parts crossing the border.
    • Production transfers to U.S. facilities.
    • Delayed vehicle programs and capital spending.
    • Margin pressure if Magna absorbs part of the tariff cost.

    The exact financial impact cannot yet be calculated because the final tariff rules, exemptions and treatment of USMCA-compliant parts have not been published.

    2. Broad auto-sector selling

    The decline was not unique to Magna. Ford, General Motors, Stellantis, Toyota and Honda also fell following the announcement. Canadian suppliers Linamar and Martinrea experienced even larger declines. This supports the conclusion that MG.TO’s fall was primarily an industry and trade-policy reaction, rather than company-specific news.

    3. Profit-taking amplified the decline

    Magna had closed at C$100.44 on August 21, following a 3.5% daily gain. Investors therefore entered the tariff announcement with the stock near a recent high, making it vulnerable to rapid profit-taking.

    Trading volume reached approximately 2.06 million shares on August 24, versus roughly one million shares on several later sessions. The elevated volume confirms that the initial decline involved substantial institutional selling.

    Company fundamentals

    The sell-off contrasts with Magna’s most recent operating report. In July, the company reported:

    • Q2 sales: US$10.98 billion
    • Adjusted EPS: US$1.86
    • Free cash flow: US$617 million
    • 2026 adjusted EPS outlook: US$6.70–US$7.30
    • 2026 free-cash-flow outlook: US$1.75–US$1.85 billion

    Magna raised its earnings and cash-flow outlook despite trimming its sales outlook. Magna investor filings.

    Therefore, the market is discounting a possible future earnings shock rather than reacting to weak historical results.

    Short-term scenarios

    ScenarioLikely driverPossible share-price response
    BullTariff threat is delayed, reduced or used to restart negotiationsRecovery toward C$96–C$100
    BaseNo clarification; negotiations remain stalledConsolidation around C$89–C$94
    BearFormal 50% tariff rules include Canadian auto parts with limited exemptionsBreak below C$89, with risk toward the mid-C$80s

    These are scenario ranges, not price targets.

    What would disprove the negative thesis?

    • A negotiated tariff reduction or broad USMCA exemption.
    • Evidence that Magna can reroute production through its U.S. plants without material cost.
    • Management maintaining its 2026–2027 earnings outlook after quantifying tariff exposure.
    • MG.TO recovering above approximately C$96–C$100 on strong volume.

    Actionable takeaways

    MG.TO’s five-day decline was mainly a tariff-risk repricing. The stabilization near C$91 suggests the initial shock has been absorbed, but a durable recovery will likely require tariff clarification. The key items to monitor are the formal U.S. tariff notice, treatment of Canadian parts, production decisions by Magna’s major customers and any revision to Magna’s guidance.

    Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.

  • Enbridge lands $2.7-billion investment from KKR, Apollo in B.C. natural gas pipeline expansion

    Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. ENB-T -0.74%decrease haslanded a $2.7-billion investment in the planned expansion of its British Columbia natural gas pipeline from two of the largest U.S. private equity funds, an example of the global commitment to Canadian infrastructure that Prime Minister Mark Carney is targeting at Canada’s investment summit next month.

    New York-based KKR & Co. Inc. KKR-N +0.76%increase and Apollo Global Management Inc. APO-A-N +0.61%increase are buying a 29-per-cent stake in Enbridge’s Westcoast pipeline network, which connects natural gas fields in northern B.C. and Alberta to customers in the south of the provinces and northwestern U.S.

    In April, Enbridge received government approval to extend the Westcoast pipeline by 139 kilometres. The projects, known as the Sunrise and Aspen expansions, are expected to cost $4-billion and be completed by the end of 2028. They will add 300 million cubic feet per day of natural gas transportation capacity to the system, which can move 3.8 billion cubic feet of gas each day.

    “We are pleased to welcome KKR and Apollo as strategic partners,” said Pat Murray, Enbridge’s chief financial officer, in a press release. “This transaction allows us to efficiently recycle capital, strengthen our balance sheet, and maintain financial flexibility.”

    Enbridge to spend $1.4-billion on pipeline networks to boost oil flows to U.S. refiners

    The Westcoast pipeline stretches more than 2,900 kilometres from northeast B.C. and northwest Alberta to the Canada-U.S. border near Chilliwack, B.C.

    “This investment reflects our strategy of investing alongside leading operators in key infrastructure with stable, long-term cash flows and attractive growth opportunities,” said Paul Workman, a managing director at KKR, in a press release.

    KKR and Apollo will begin receiving cash distributions from Westcoast when the Sunrise and Aspen projects are completed.

    Enbridge will receive $700-million from the two fund mangers when the transaction closes. Bank of Nova Scotia analyst Robert Hope said the company will get the remainder of the cash in installments over the three years it takes to build the extensions.

    Tapping KKR and Apollo shows Enbridge can “create additional flexibility to recycle capital from low-risk Canadian regulated assets into higher-return U.S. natural gas infrastructure and liquids pipeline opportunities,” Mr. Hope said.

    On Wednesday, Enbridge announced it would buy crude oil infrastructure in Texas and New Mexico from Houston-based Salt Creek Midstream LLP for US$600-million.

    Enbridge to buy Salt Creek Midstream assets for $600-million, expanding Permian Basin presence

    The acquisition, which is expected to close by the end of the year, adds about 800 kilometres of pipelines and crude oil terminals to the Canadian company’s existing operations in the region. It will link an additional 20 producers to Enbridge’s Ingleside Energy Center on the Gulf coast, North America’s largest crude export terminal.

    Enbridge’s sale of a minority stake in the Westcoast pipeline is similar in structure to a number of investments fund managers have made in infrastructure, including Rogers Communications Inc.’s $7-billion sale of an interest in its wireless network to a consortium made up of New York-based Blackstone Inc. and four domestic pension funds two years ago.

    Sales of minority stakes in infrastructure allow companies like Enbridge or Rogers to raise cash while retaining operational control of their assets.

    Enbridge has the right to repurchase KKR and Apollo’s interests at any time between the seventh and 14th year from the close of the transactions. Rogers has a similar arrangement with Blackstone.

    KKR and Apollo executives are among the global fund managers expected to attend the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto in mid-September. The Prime Minister announced the summit in April as part of a strategy to attract more global investment in domestic projects. Mr. Carney aims to raise roughly $500-billion in investments from private-sector funds over the next five years.

    The gathering of institutional investors who collectively oversee an estimated $120-trillion will take place as the Canadian and U.S. governments exchange salvos in a trade dispute.

    Investment banks Morgan Stanley Canada Ltd. and TD Securities advised Enbridge on the Westcoast investment, along with law firms Sullivan & Cromwell LLP and McCarthy Tétrault LLP.

    KKR’s bankers were at CIBC Capital Markets, while its legal advisers were Kirkland & Ellis LLP and Bennett Jones LLP. Scotiabank and law firm Milbank LLP advised Apollo.

  • Doesn’t help trade war: CBC tells staff not to call 9/11 a ‘terrorist attack’

    With the 25th anniversary of 9/11 on the horizon, the CBC has circulated a memo to reporters and editors across all its news platforms reminding them not to refer to the attacks that claimed 3,000 lives and changed the modern world as “terrorist attacks.”

    The missive from the broadcaster’s journalistic standards and practices office, a copy of which was obtained by National Post, includes a section of the “longstanding language guidance” on the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks carried out by the Islamic terrorist group al-Qaeda.

    “Do not refer to the Sept. 11 attacks as terrorist attacks,” it reads about halfway through, with the first part bolded and the last two words linking back to the CBC’s internal language guide.

    “The hijackings led to passenger jet crashes in Washington, D.C., Pennsylvania and Manhattan. The World Trade Center (WTC in second reference) was destroyed.”

    The letter was first reported by the Toronto Sun. It is signed BB, who is identified by the Sun as Basem Boshra, senior director of journalistic standards and public trust at CBC News.

    On the morning of the attacks, 19 al-Qaeda terrorists hijacked four commercial airliners in the continental United States.

    Two of the aircraft were flown into the World Trade Center towers in Manhattan — both of which would collapse — another was slammed into the Pentagon and the fourth crashed in Pennsylvania after passengers fought back against the terrorists.

    The attacks spurred the creation of the Department of Homeland Security domestically and led to a protracted war on terror in Afghanistan. Osama Bin Laden, who orchestrated the attacks, was found and killed by U.S. forces in Pakistan in 2011.

    Rachel Thomas, Conservative MP for Lethbridge, Alta., called the leaked memo shameful and accused the broadcaster of redefining “terrorism in a way that downplays the atrocity” of the terrorist attacks.

    “Refusing to call it an act of terrorism dishonours the victims, their families, the survivors, and the first responders who witnessed the horrors of that day,” she wrote on X .

    “Trying to sanitize or rewrite that history is deeply offensive and does a disservice to everyone who was affected by the attacks.”

    Kerry Kelly, a public affairs spokesperson for CBC, told National Post in an email that “it is wholly inaccurate to state our journalists have been urged to declare that this was not a terrorist act.”

    Rather, she said the memo was a regular reminder about adhering to the CBC’s language guide for “the terms ‘terrorist’ and ‘terrorism.’

    “CBC preferences use of these words with attribution to credible sources, a practice shared by many of the world’s top journalistic organizations,” Kelly wrote, pointing to an October 2023 blog by Brodie Fenlon, CBC News editor in chief and general manager.

    He was writing in response to a similarly leaked memo to staff regarding the use of the same words in reporting about Hamas’s terrorist attacks on Israel that had occurred a week earlier.

    Staff will use the terms, he said, but they will always be “attributed to government officials, authorities, experts and politicians.”

    “But CBC News does not itself designate specific groups as terrorists, or specific acts as terrorism, regardless of the region or the events, because these words are so loaded with meaning, politics and emotion that they can end up being impediments to our journalism,” Fenlon said, noting the policy has existed for decades and many news outlets employ their own.

    The post included a portion of the language guide, which urges employees to “exercise extreme caution before using the words terrorist or terrorism” because they can be “highly contested” in some instances and potentially raise questions about the CBC’s “consistency and impartiality” in covering other attacks.

    “Terrorism generally implies attacks against unarmed civilians for political, religious or some other ideological reason,” the guidance reads. “But it’s a highly controversial term that can leave journalists taking sides in a conflict.”

    Fielding a complaint about coverage of Israel’s war against Hamas, CBC Ombudsman Maxime Bertrand called the policy a “necessary safeguard” but added that “it doesn’t guarantee ethical clarity or eliminate the potential for unconscious bias.”

    “In practice, sensitivity to language and power relations demands constant vigilance and nuanced reflection. Essentially, journalists cannot be too careful,” he wrote in March.

    Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.

  • Aug 27/26: Current status of US Canada Tariff situation

    Summary :

    • The United States’ new 50% tariffs took effect August 22 on approximately C$27.6 billion (about US$20 billion) of Canadian goods.
    • The measures affect roughly 5% of Canadian exports to the United States—material for exposed industries, but not a blanket tariff on all Canadian exports.
    • Canada will impose matching tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods beginning September 8.
    • Formal trade negotiations remain suspended, although a recent U.S. clarification concerning French-language policies has modestly improved the possibility of talks restarting.
    • The most important risk is escalation into autos, steel, aluminum, lumber or other major trade flows—not the direct size of the latest tariff package.

    Current Position

    IssueCurrent status
    New U.S. tariffs50% effective August 22
    Canadian exports coveredC$27.6 billion, approximately US$20 billion
    Share of Canadian exports to U.S.Slightly above 5%
    CUSMA exemptionThe products on the new tariff lists do not receive preferential CUSMA treatment
    Canadian retaliation15%, 25% and 50%, effective September 8
    U.S. imports covered by CanadaC$27.6 billion
    NegotiationsSuspended; no confirmed new negotiating round
    Government supportCanada announced C$7.5 billion of additional worker and business support

    Products and Sectors

    The new U.S. measures reportedly cover selected goods including:

    • Furniture and apparel
    • Wine and other alcohol
    • Dairy and food products
    • Cement
    • Hockey and fishing equipment
    • Other specifically listed manufactured goods

    Canada’s retaliation focuses on:

    • Steel and aluminum products
    • Dairy
    • Appliances and electronics
    • Agricultural equipment
    • Furniture and apparel
    • Pulp and paper

    Canada removed U.S. seafood and fish products from its retaliation list following industry feedback, demonstrating that the list may still be adjusted before September 8. Department of Finance Canada, Reuters

    Negotiating Status

    Talks collapsed after Canada said the United States introduced unacceptable last-minute conditions. The United States said Canada declined terms that had previously been discussed.

    One obstacle may now be narrowing: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canadian French-language and cultural-content policies were not a U.S. “red line.” Canada welcomed that clarification and requested similar movement on other disputed positions.

    However, Greer also said there was currently no open channel of communication between the two governments. Therefore, this is an easing of rhetoric—not evidence that negotiations have formally resumed. Reuters

    Economic and TSX Impact

    Short term

    • Negative: Canadian manufacturers, furniture, apparel, alcohol, dairy, cement and other directly covered exporters.
    • Mixed to negative: Banks, railways and consumer companies if weaker business confidence, investment and employment spread beyond targeted sectors.
    • Relatively insulated: Energy and potash remain outside the latest Section 338 package.
    • Inflation risk: Canadian counter-tariffs could increase the cost of selected appliances, machinery, electronics and food products after September 8.
    • CAD risk: Prolonged uncertainty could weaken the Canadian dollar, although oil prices and interest-rate expectations remain important competing drivers.

    Longer term

    The main damage could come from postponed capital spending, supply-chain restructuring and reduced confidence in dependable tariff-free access to the U.S. market. These effects may be larger than the immediate customs cost.

    Scenarios

    ScenarioProbability assessmentLikely outcome
    Bull: negotiations restartModerate-lowSeptember 8 tariffs are delayed, reduced or used as bargaining leverage; exposed TSX companies rebound
    Base: targeted conflict continuesModerate-highExisting measures remain, but energy and most CUSMA trade continue; concentrated industrial damage rather than a broad recessionary shock
    Bear: broader escalationModerateAdditional action against autos, steel, aluminum, lumber or energy; weaker CAD, business investment and Canadian growth

    What Would Disprove the Base Case?

    • A confirmed date for renewed ministerial negotiations.
    • Canada suspending or delaying the September 8 counter-tariffs.
    • The United States offering enforceable relief on autos, steel, aluminum or lumber.
    • Conversely, new U.S. tariffs covering substantially more than the present C$27.6 billion would invalidate the assumption that the conflict remains contained.

    Actionable Takeaways

    The tariff dispute has escalated, but the latest package is still targeted rather than economy-wide. Near-term TSX exposure is concentrated in selected manufacturers and consumer exporters. The critical dates and signals are September 8, any resumption of official talks, changes to Canada’s product list, and possible U.S. expansion into larger strategic sectors.

    Educational analysis only; tariff rules and product classifications should be confirmed against the relevant customs schedules.

  • Macro outlook: Growth hinges on Iran war, AI rollout

    Capital Group (July 23, 2026) argues that AI-driven market concentration has reached levels not seen in decades, creating unintended risks in cap-weighted index funds. The piece uses four charts and commentary from CIO Martin Romo and portfolio managers Brady Enright, Steve Watson, Damien McCann, and Jody Jonsson.

    Key takeaways

    • Markets are among the most concentrated in recent history.
    • AI concentration is a global phenomenon.
    • U.S. GDP relies heavily on AI spending.
    • AI-related issuance is straining parts of the bond market.

    1. Extreme U.S. concentration, but a single theme

    Top 10 stocks are approaching 40% of the S&P 500—similar to 1964’s Nifty Fifty peak (39%) and Japan’s 1980s boom. Then the leaders spanned sectors (AT&T, GM, Exxon, IBM). Today NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Micron and peers are tightly linked to one theme: AI capex. That raises correlated-downside risk (already visible in early-July pullbacks in SK hynix and Sandisk). Past concentration episodes eventually unwound; the authors treat this as a reminder, not a crash forecast. Quality names left behind (Royal Caribbean, P&G, Citigroup) trade at 20%+ discounts to history.

    2. Same pattern globally

    MSCI Emerging Markets top 10 = 41% of the index; SK hynix + Samsung + TSMC alone = 29%. Developed non-U.S. and Europe are less extreme. Watson sees value in non-U.S. leaders (AstraZeneca, Tencent) and “AI wreckage” names he views as enablers rather than victims (SAP, Trip.com, Amadeus).

    3. Economy-level dependence

    St. Louis Fed estimates: AI-related investment added nearly 1% to U.S. real GDP in the first nine months of 2025—39% of total growth. Roughly half of data-center costs are semiconductors, but HVAC, power, water and transformers also benefit. Enright’s next focus is companies using AI for durable advantage (financials, healthcare) rather than just selling the build-out.

    4. Bond-market strain

    Hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, SpaceX) now represent ~4.8% of the Bloomberg U.S. IG Corporate Index—up 78% year-over-year. Heavy issuance has pressured some of those credits. McCann stays constructive on broader credit (earnings, consumer, labor) but stresses issuer-by-issuer selection and diversification across IG, HY, securitized and EM.Bottom line

    Index funds are cheaper, not safer. Passive portfolios now embed a large bet that one AI outcome dominates. Authors recommend checking how much of a portfolio sits in a handful of AI-linked names, adding old-economy and non-U.S. exposure, and being willing to differ from the benchmark. “Bold enough to own great companies when fundamenta

  • Nvidia jumps 7% after blockbuster earnings boost AI confidence

    • Nvidia shares climbed on Thursday after earnings sailed past estimates.
    • Huang said AI “reached its inflection point,” noting that the number of companies that need large clusters of GPUs has expanded dramatically.
    • Supply chain constraints and rival chips being built by customers are potential headwinds for the tech giant.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/nvidia-nvda-q2-earnings.html

  • CIBC beats profit forecast on growth in domestic banking, continuing sector’s streak

    Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T -4.72%decrease
    picked up more business from domestic clients and kept loan losses in check to continue the sector’s streak of third quarter profits that beat analysts’ expectations.

    On Thursday, CIBC reported it earned $2.41-billion in the third quarter, or $2.47 per share, up 15 per cent from the same period in 2025.

    The Toronto-based bank’s adjusted earnings were $2.65-billion or $2.73 per share. Analysts had forecast the bank would post adjusted earnings of $2.50-per share, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

    “We continue to accelerate the execution of our strategy, driving another quarter of strong financial results including double-digit growth in net income and a higher return on equity compared to a year ago,” said Harry Culham, CIBC’s chief executive officer, in a press release.

    “CIBC continued the trend of better-than-expected results, with each of its operating segments contributing to the beat,” said analyst John Aiken at Jefferies Financial Group in a report.

    “While loan growth and efficiency gains were positive, the market’s reaction may be tempered by the reserve release and margin contraction in the U.S. segment,” said Mr. Aiken.

    CIBC’s return on equity, a key measure of the bank’s financial performance, rose to 16.8 per cent, up from 14.2 per cent in the same period a year ago.

    CIBC agrees to pay $10-million to settle class action over non-sufficient funds fees

    CIBC highlighted the integration of artificial intelligence into its operations, rolling out a workspace system called CAI 2.0 that allows employees to delegate work to AI-driven agents.

    “We’re investing in key enablers including artificial intelligence to empower our team, as we continue to modernize our bank, drive efficiency and sharpen our focus on our clients,” said Mr. Culham. In a conference call with analysts, Mr. Culham said the bank expects to continue expanding its workforce as it increases the use of AI, rather than replacing staff with technology, while making its employees more productive.

    CIBC’s domestic growth strategy includes bulking up a wealth management platform that targets the mass affluent segment of the population. Rob Sedran, CIBC’s chief financial officer, said in a conference call the bank’s target is to double the size of this business, which has $360-billion of assets under management, over the next five years. This year, Mr. Sedran said the business is growing at a 10-per-cent clip.

    Earlier this week, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada reported financial results that exceeded expectations. Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank also release their quarterly performance on Thursday.

    CIBC posted revenue growth in all of its lines of business units, including a 9 per cent increase in revenue at its Canadian personal and business division, the bank’s largest business. The division had adjusted earnings of $1.7-billion, up 18 per cent compared to last year.

    The bank’s U.S. commercial and wealth management division earned US$277-million on an adjusted basis, up 10 per cent from the same period in 2025.

    CIBC’s capital markets business had a strong quarter, continuing a trend seen at other domestic banks. Adjusted earnings were $977-million, up 24 per cent from the third quarter of 2025.

    CIBC set aside $564-million for problem loans, in line with the $559-million provision for credit losses in the same period last year and down 7 per cent from the previous quarter.

    CIBC is the latest domestic bank to report better-than-expected results against a backdrop of economic uncertainty due to Canada’s trade dispute with the U.S. On Tuesday, executives at Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia said consumers and businesses are adjusting well to a challenging global trade environment.

  • TD beats analysts’ estimates, unveils plan to open 100 new U.S. branches

    Toronto-Dominion Bank TD-T -0.51%decrease reported higher third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as the lender reins in expenses and plans to open new retail branches in the United States, where it is fixing gaps in its anti-money laundering processes.

    Canada’s second-largest lender posted stronger than expected results across its businesses. TD’s net income rose 38 per cent to $4.62-billion, or $2.74 per share, in the three months that ended July 31.

    Adjusted to exclude certain items, the bank said it earned $2.77 per share, edging out the $2.47 per share analysts expected, according to data by S&P Capital IQ.

    “With a focus on disciplined execution, [return on equity] was up significantly and we generated positive operating leverage while continuing to invest in front-line talent, AI and innovation to deepen client relationships and grow the bank,” TD chief executive officer Raymond Chun said in a statement.

    Investor alleges $4.5-million in losses owing to fraudulent trades in TD investing accounts

    The bank said it intends to open 100 new branches in the U.S. by the end of 2028, pending regulatory approval.

    TD’s chief financial officer Kelvin Tran said the new sites will be located in the bank’s existing footprint along the country’s east coast.

    “Our focus is driving organic growth, and building new branches to acquire new customers is part of that strategy,” Mr. Tran said in an interview.

    U.S. regulators and law enforcement levied a cap on assets of US$434-billion that limits TD’s ability to grow its retail operations in the country. To continue growing the business and create space under the asset cap, the lender shrunk its U.S. balance sheet by exiting less profitable portfolios.

    TD has previously said it expects expense growth to land in the mid-single-digit range this year.

    TD tells some employees it will use software to monitor their work in an effort to increase productivity

    “It speaks volume about the effectiveness of our structural cost reduction program, so as those savings come through, and on top of that, moderation of some governance and control costs, that gives us room to reinvest in the business,” Mr. Tran said.

    “Whether that is reinvesting in new branches or reinvesting in frontline talent, or in our technology, those are very important for us as we look to grow the U.S. business over time.”

    TD is the final major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal third quarter. Earlier in the week, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada released results that beat analysts’ estimates. On Thursday, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Royal Bank of Canada also post earnings that topped analysts’ expectations.

    In the quarter, TD set aside $917-million in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks set aside to cover loans that may default. That was lower than analysts anticipated, and included $865-million against loans that the bank believes may not be repaid, based on models that use economic forecasting to predict future losses.

    Total revenue rose 10 per cent in the quarter to $16.89-billion, while expenses fell slightly by 1 per cent to $8.48-billion.

    The bank is betting on its Canadian division and streamlining its businesses to drive its growth strategy

    Canadian personal and commercial banking profit was $2.1-billion, up 7 per cent from a year earlier, as revenue was driven by deposit and loan volume growth

    Profit from the bank’s U.S. arm was up 41 per cent at $1.07-billion, as loans grew in middle market commercial lending and credit cards.

    Capital markets profit climbed 87 per cent to $743-million on higher revenue and lower provisions. The wealth management and insurance division generated $841-million in profit, up 20 per cent.