Author: Consultant

• Germany has signed long-term LNG offtake agreements with Canada’s Ksi Lisims project, seeking energy security and supply diversification amid heightened geopolitical risks.
• Despite the deals, Canadian LNG may never physically reach Germany due to geography, shipping economics, and the lack of Atlantic Coast export infrastructure.
• Instead, Germany could use LNG cargo swaps, sending Canadian gas to Asian buyers while receiving equivalent volumes from suppliers closer to Europe.

The Iran war has made supplies of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, the most strategic since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Suddenly, countries are scrambling to get their hands on molecules that provide reliable baseload power to industries and homes.

That explains why Germany is buying LNG from Canada. It’s to ensure long-term energy security, reduce reliance on volatile global supplies, and diversify away from Middle Eastern and Russian energy markets.

At the end of May, the Canadian government brokered a deal between the Ksi Lisims LNG facility planned for north of Prince Rupert, on the British Columbia coast, and German company SEFE, which is agreeing to buy 1 million tonnes of LNG per year for up to 20 years

Ksi Lisims LNG is a joint venture owned by the Nisga’a Nation, Texas-based Western LNG, and Rockies LNG, a consortium of Canadian natural gas producers.Related: Kuwait Offers First Crude Cargoes to Asia since Iran War Started

The agreement marked the first long-term LNG supply arrangement between a Canadian project and a European buyer.

On June 8, a second, preliminary deal was announced. Germany’s Uniper signed a letter of intent with Ksi Lisims LNG for a possible offtake agreement of 2 million tonnes of LNG per year.

Construction of the facility, which has an annual capacity of 12 million tonnes, could begin in 2027, although there some significant hurdles to overcome.

First and foremost is a Final Investment Decision. To get an FID across the line, Ksi Lisims must show there is enough demand to start construction. The JV already has binding offtake agreements with Shell (NYSE:SHEL) and TotalEnergies. With SEFE and Uniper, up to 7 million tonnes have been annually committed. Will that be enough, and will the facility be profitable in a future LNG market? Ksi Lisims must decide.

The $10 billion project is also facing political and legal challenges about the environmental impacts increased gas production and shipping will have on the area:

Two B.C. Supreme Court petitions were filed over the provincial government’s decision last year to deem the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline “substantially started,” meaning it wouldn’t need a new environmental assessment.

The liquefied natural gas pipeline’s construction, which was authorized in 2014, and a deadline to start it was extended to 2024, spurring the court challenges from Gitxsan Hereditary Chief Charlie Wright and environmentalist groups opposed to the project.

Construction started in 2024 but the pipeline is not yet finished.

These are all significant obstacles, but the bigger question is how Ksi Lisims would get the LNG from the Canadian West Coast to Germany.

Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre has said the better option would be to ship it from the east coast. But there are currently no operational LNG export plants on that side of Canada; only an import and peaking facility in New Brunswick owned by Repsol.

The only large-scale LNG facility in operation is LNG Canada in Kitimat, close to the proposed Ksi Lisims plant. The first phase of LNG Canada was finished in 2025; a year ago it loaded its first export cargo.

When asked why Ottawa wouldn’t pipe LNG across the country, then ship it directly across the Atlantic to Germany, the energy minister said it’s cheaper to move the product by water — through the Panama Canal — than it is to pay tolls through a pipeline.

In practice, Germany may never receive LNG directly from Ksi Lisims, despite the project signing two separate offtake agreements.

Instead, the German companies could employ a concept that is becoming increasingly common in LNG markets: cargo swaps

Here’s how it works: Instead of purchasing the LNG and physically delivering it to Germany, the companies would purchase the cargo and redirect it to buyers in Japan, South Kora, Taiwan or other Asian markets. In exchange, the companies would receive LNG from suppliers closer to Europe, like the US, Qatar, Algeria or Norway.

The result, says EnergyNow via the Financial Post, is lower shipping costs, shorter transit times, reduced congestion risk, and greater flexibility while maintaining the same overall gas supply balance.

This is already how major LNG portfolio players such as Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, and SEFE manage global supply chains. LNG contracts increasingly represent access to molecules rather than a commitment to move specific molecules from one point to another.

In the end, “the molecule doesn’t matter as much as the contract.”

A Canadian LNG contract provides supply from a stable democracy, reduced exposure to political disruptions, diversification from a single supplier, and long-term contractual security, states EnergyNow.

Reuters previously reported that German buyers are increasingly interested in acquiring Canadian LNG cargoes specifically because they can be swapped within global markets. Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson noted that European buyers see value in holding Canadian LNG positions even if the fuel is ultimately consumed elsewhere.

By Andrew Topf for Oilprice.com

Germany’s Big LNG Deal With Canada May Never Deliver a Single Cargo | OilPrice.com

CALGARY, June 9 (Reuters) – Cenovus Energy CEO Jon ​McKenzie said Tuesday ‌Alberta’s proposed 1 million barrel-per-day pipeline to ​British Columbia’s ​Pacific coast cannot be ⁠financed by the ​private sector under ​Canada’s current regulatory regime.

McKenzie, who heads one of ​Canada’s largest ​oil sands companies, said at ‌the ⁠Global Energy Show in Calgary that the country’s industrial ​carbon ​pricing ⁠system makes Canadian oil uncompetitive ​and inhibits ​the ⁠production growth required to fill the ⁠proposed ​pipeline.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cenovus-ceo-says-proposed-pipeline-canadas-west-coast-currently-unfinanceable-2026-06-09

Rising gas prices pushed inflation to its highest level in three years last month, a headache for the Federal Reserve and a potential political challenge for the Trump administration as midterm elections near.

Consumer prices rose 4.2 per cent in May from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, up from 3.8 per cent in April and the third straight monthly increase. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5 per cent last month, after big gains of 0.6 per cent in April and 0.9 per cent in March.

Prices have now risen faster than wages for several months, pressuring many Americans’ finances and causing consumers to take a decidedly dim view of the economy. Families are dipping into savings to maintain their spending, and more people are falling behind on their credit card bills. Large retailers say they have also noticed changes in customer behaviour, like buying smaller amounts of gas during visits to the pump.

Inflation is now well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target, which it has surpassed for more than five years. New Fed chair Kevin Warsh will preside over his first policy meeting next week, when the central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged. But the Fed is also likely to change the statement it issues after each meeting to remove a suggestion that its next move could be to lower rates. With inflation proving stubborn, financial markets expect the Fed could instead raise rates by the end of the year.

When the Fed lifts rates, over time it can make mortgages, auto loans, and business borrowing more expensive.

Outside energy costs, price increases last month were not as dramatic, a sign that sharply higher inflation hasn’t yet spread throughout the economy. Should the Iran war end and oil and gas prices decline, headline inflation could begin to cool. Gas prices have fallen this month, though they remain elevated.

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose at a more modest pace. On a monthly basis, they climbed just 0.2 per cent, down from a 0.4 per cent gain in April. Compared with a year ago, they have rise 2.9 per cent, up from 2.8 per cent in April.

President Donald Trump praised the inflation report in comments to reporters Wednesday, saying, “the numbers were great” and “I love it.”

He said the inflation data was good because it showed energy prices were a huge driver of rising costs – the government said they accounted for more than 60 per cent of the monthly increase – and he suggested inflation would ease “as soon as this war is over.”

However, the U.S. launched more air strikes against Iran on Wednesday, and Trump said more were coming, as Tehran fired back at countries in the region.

Crude prices shot back above US$90 a barrel on the violent exchange of fire.

Still, many goods and services rose in price last month: Clothing costs increased 0.3 per cent and are 4.8 per cent more expensive than a year ago. Airline fares, pushed higher by pricier jet fuel, jumped 2.7 per cent just in May and are nearly 27 per cent higher than a year ago. Electricity prices rose 0.6 per cent in May and are up 5.9 per cent in the past year.

Grocery prices were tamer in May compared with previous months, rising just 0.1 per cent from April. Still, they are up 2.7 per cent from a year ago and have risen sharply since the pandemic.

“I don’t think we’re anywhere near out of the woods yet,” Omair Sharif, chief economist at Inflation Insights, said. Price increases “were stronger under the hood.”

Sharif and other economists point out that the cost of services, including child care, home health care, and dental services are still rising much more quickly than is consistent with the Fed’s 2 per cent inflation target.

Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, attributed some of the gain to a crackdown on immigration, which has likely forced many employers in those industries to raise wages.

Inflation had been cooling before Trump imposed sweeping tariffs in April 2025, which lifted the costs of many goods. Prices have since surged after the Iran war made oil and gas more expensive, making affordability a key political issue.

Small businesses are struggling with higher costs, some of which they are passing on in the form of higher prices. Others have slowed hiring or even cut jobs.

Beth Benike, the founder of Oronoco, Minnesota-based Busy Baby, said her small company was hit hard by tariffs last year and is now struggling with higher shipping costs stemming from more expensive fuel. The company sells silicon placemats and toys that attach to high chairs and strollers.

Sales have declined as inflation has worsened, and Benike recently reduced one full-time employee to part-time hours. She said that more of her customers are now grandparents of newborns, rather than the parents.

“Grandparents have a little more disposable income than the generation that’s having babies,” she said.

Gas prices rose in May because of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has choked off about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Prices at the pump rose, on average, from about US$4.04 in mid-April to US$4.49 in mid-May, according to the Energy Information Administration.

They have since fallen back to US$4.16 on average nationwide, according to AAA, which could lead to a cooler inflation reading in June. That doesn’t mean gas prices are not prominent in the minds of most Americans. A gallon of gas has hovered above US$4 a gallon since March.

Major retail chains have discounted prices to accommodate customers who are watching their spending more closely.

Dollar General is expanding the number of items that cost US$1 or less, including frozen food. The shift has come with shoppers swapping out favoured retailers for dollar stores.

“When that (gas) price hits that US$4 mark and then crosses it and then sustains for a while, you start to see that trade-in come in and you start to see that our core customer needs us most,” Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos said this month.

Amber Greenwell, executive director of the America First Credit Union’s charitable foundation, based in Ogden, Utah, says the cost of gas, housing and groceries have risen sharply in her state and much of the west in the past year. Her organization organizes food and diaper drives in the six states where the credit union operates.

“There is substantial growth in families who need more food resources as well as diaper resources,” she said.

Stubbornly high inflation has shifted the debate among Fed policymakers, who had signalled at the start of the year that they were inclined to cut their key rate twice more this year. Now, more officials are saying they expect the Fed’s next move will likely be a hike rather than a cut.

Despite higher inflation, the job market appears to be improving, with hiring increasing to a healthy level in May, and the economy is still growing. These positive signs suggest the Fed doesn’t need to cut rates to stimulate growth and hiring. They also signal that the Fed’s rate isn’t so high that it is weighing on the economy. Yet some officials want rates to cool growth a bit, because that can bring down inflation.

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday and said the path forward for monetary policy remains uncertain amid a challenging mix of weak economic growth and high energy prices.

As widely expected, the central bank’s governing council kept the policy rate at 2.25 per cent for the fifth consecutive time.

The war in the Middle East has pushed up global oil prices and lifted inflation in Canada to the upper end of the bank’s target range. At the same time, the Canadian economy is struggling to grow in the face of U.S. protectionism – a dynamic that’s putting downward pressure on inflation.

“For now, holding the policy rate unchanged balances those risks,” Governor Tiff Macklem said in a press conference following the rate announcement.

Live blog: Get the latest commentary and analysis on the BoC rate decision

But the central bank may need to be nimble if the situation changes, he said, reiterating a message he delivered at the last rate announcement in April.

“If the United States imposes significant new trade restrictions on Canada, we may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth,” he said.

“Alternatively, if the conflict in the Middle East continues and higher energy prices start leading to ongoing generalized inflation, monetary policy will have more work to do – there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate.”

Financial markets expect the central bank to remain on hold through most of this year, with one quarter-point hike priced in for December, according to Bloomberg data. Market pricing was largely unchanged after Wednesday’s announcement.

Since the start of the Iran war and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz in February, the bank has flagged the risk that high global oil prices could morph into broad-based inflation in Canada. The longer the war continues, the bigger that risk becomes.

So far, however, the bank is seeing few signs of this happening in Canada.

Headline inflation hit 2.8 per cent in April, up from 2.4 per cent the month before, due to rising gasoline prices. At the same time, the core inflation measures the bank pays the most attention to declined to around 2 per cent.

“So far, there has been limited evidence of broad-based pass-through of higher energy prices to other consumer prices,” Mr. Macklem said, pointing to the core inflation measures and the fact that the share of CPI components running above 3 per cent is close to a historical average.

“We expect CPI inflation to hover close to 3 per cent in coming months before easing gradually toward 2 per cent,” he added.

While recent inflation data has remained subdued, economic growth data has been worse than expected.

The Canadian economy contracted 0.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the first quarter of this year, following a 1-per-cent decline the previous quarter. That was much weaker than the central bank expected, and the back-to-back decline in GDP has sparked a debate about whether Canada is in a recession.

“Recession is not the word I would use. I would describe the economy as weak. It hasn’t grown really in the last year,” Mr. Macklem said at the press conference, weighing in on a debate that has become heavily politicized in recent weeks. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has used the idea of a “technical recession” to hammer the government.

“Economists typically define a recession as a significant broad-based decline in economic activity that lasts for more than one quarter,” Mr. Macklem said. “Based on the data we’ve got, based on that definition, the economy is weak, but it’s not clearly in recession.”

He noted that the first-quarter contraction was small, and the GDP decline was driven by a drop in government spending, while consumer spending remained relatively robust. The bank expects GDP to start growing again slowly in the second quarter.

When it comes to the labour market, Mr. Macklem played down the strength of May job numbers Statistics Canada published last week. Canada added almost 88,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate fell to 6.6 per cent from 6.9 per cent the month before.

“When you look through the bumpiness, employment in Canada is little changed since the start of the year, and the unemployment rate has been fluctuating in the 6.5 to 7 per cent range,” Mr. Macklem said.

Looking beyond the immediate data, Mr. Macklem warned that structural shifts, tied changing trade relationships, artificial intelligence and a population decline, are making it difficult to get a read on the state of the economy.

“We will be watching all these developments closely and assessing their implications for growth and inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed,” he said.

Andrew Grantham, senior economist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said that Mr. Macklem’s reference to possible “consecutive” rate hikes if oil prices stay high plays into market perceptions that the bank is more worried about upside risks to inflation.

“Overall, however, we view today’s communication as highlighting a very patient central bank that has plenty of time to wait and see how risks to the economy play out,” Mr. Grantham said in a note to clients.

“We continue to see no change in interest rates this year, and that rates at their current level should support a recovery in the economy later this year and into 2027 assuming some of the uncertainties regarding oil prices and trade lessen during that time period.”

• Oil prices shot higher Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Iran will “pay the price” for being too slow to negotiate a peace deal.
• The price movements came after Trump issued a social media post that countered previous claims that the hostilities with Iran were near an end.

Oil prices shot higher Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Iran will “pay the price” for being too slow to negotiate a peace deal.

U.S. crude oil futures for July delivery jumped nearly 2% to $89.72 per barrel as of 7:15 a.m. ET, Brent futures, the international benchmark, for August delivery, rose 1.3% to $92.74 per barrel.

The price movements came after Trump issued a social media post that countered previous claims that the hostilities with Iran were near an end.

“Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore – They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action,” Trump said on Truth Social. “The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!”

Earlier, the U.S. military said it had completed strikes against Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz. 

U.S. forces carried out strikes on Iran on Tuesday night after an American Army Apache helicopter was shot down a day earlier, according to U.S. Central Command. Centcom described the operation as a defensive and measured response to what it called Iranian aggression.

Trump said Tuesday that Iran had brought down a U.S. helicopter conducting patrols near the Strait of Hormuz and indicated that the U.S. would retaliate.

“The two pilots involved in the attack are safe and uninjured,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack.”

Rystad Energy said the shutdown of 11.8 million barrels a day of production across six Gulf producers has created the most severe oil supply disruption in modern history. The consultancy estimates cumulative production losses have reached 1 billion barrels and warned that each additional month of conflict could erase another 350 million barrels of output.

Gold edged higher on Tuesday, supported by lower oil prices, ​as tensions eased in ​the Middle East but concerns ​about U.S. interest rate hikes ahead of key inflation data this week capped gains.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,340.31 per ounce. The metal fell to ⁠its lowest ‌level since March 23 in the previous session.

U.S. gold futures for August delivery were unchanged at $4,364.90.

“Gold stabilized after a two-day slump that saw prices break below key technical support … However, rising expectations of further U.S. rate hikes continue to create a challenging backdrop for ‌bullion,” Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. Oil prices fell after Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an appeal ​from President Trump.

Elevated crude oil prices stoke inflation risks, increasing the chances of higher interest rates.

Although gold is typically viewed as a hedge against inflation, it tends to lose its appeal as a non-yielding asset in ⁠a high-interest-rate environment.

Investors now await May U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data on Wednesday and producer price ‌index (PPI) data on Thursday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s ‌next moves after a robust jobs report last week ramped up bets for a rate hike this year.

“Tomorrow’s U.S. CPI, which is expected to exceed 4% for the first time in ⁠almost three years, and most certainly the June 17 FOMC meeting remains key ⁠as the market is looking for the comments and intentions from the ⁠new Fed chair,” Hansen said, referring to the central bank’s new chief Kevin Warsh.

Traders are now pricing in a 68% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Spot gold closed below ‌its 200-day moving average on Friday for the first time since October 2023 and has since traded below that level amid rate-hike fears.

“The breakout below the 200-DMA is widely considered a negative technical signal, which points to further downside potential in the near term,” analysts at Citigroup said ​in a note on Monday.

Spot silver rose ‌0.6% to $68.56 per ounce, platinum gained 0.9% at $1,769.83, while palladium rose 2.9% to $1,238.66.

• U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is “rising very meaningfully.”
• Wright did not provide specific data on how much oil flows through Hormuz have increased.
• President Donald Trump sought to convince the market that a deal with Tehran to reopen Hormuz was “two or three days away.”

Oil prices fell Tuesday after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is “rising very meaningfully.”

U.S. crude oil futures fell about 3.7% to $87.89 per barrel by 10:42 a.m. ET. Brent futures, the international benchmark, lost 3.19% to $91.24.

Wright did not provide a specific data on how much oil flows through Hormuz have increased. He made the remarks in an interview with CNBC’s Brian Sullivan at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum.

Wright said oil exports through Hormuz are rising and “will continue to rise.”

The U.S. Navy has quietly coordinated with some ships that are trying to exit the Persian Gulf. More oil may be going through Hormuz than is publicly visible, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a June 4 note.

Some 2 million barrels per day might be getting out on tankers that have switched off their transponders, according to the bank’s estimates.

“Despite the ongoing naval blockade and the steep decline in commercial traffic, surprising volumes of crude and petroleum products still appear to be transiting the Strait,” the JPMorgan analysts said.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump sought to convince the market Monday that a deal with Tehran to reopen Hormuz was “two or three days away,” despite the outbreak of violence between Israel and Iran this week.

Trump has repeatedly said a deal with Tehran to reopen Hormuz is close, but such an agreement still has not materialized. The fragile ceasefire implemented in April nearly unraveled this week after Iran launched missiles at Israel in retaliation for its strikes in Lebanon.

Israel hit back with strikes on the Islamic Republic. Trump pressured Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from further attacks.

The violence spiked oil prices briefly Monday, but the volley of strikes appears to have ended without further escalation for now. Iran and Israel said they have ceased fire.

Oil prices have surged about 30% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Tehran retaliated by attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and mining the sea lane. Traffic through Hormuz has plunged as a consequence, triggering the biggest oil supply disruption in history.

Trump has sought to pressure Iran into a deal by imposing a naval blockade on its ports and vessels.

Oil industry executives and analysts say crude prices have remained moderate in comparison to the scale of the disruption due to the buffer provided by global stockpiles. But prices will likely spike later this year as those inventories rapidly decline at the same time summer demand hits its peak, they say.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/chris-wright-hormuz-oil-iran-trump.html

Some cloud software companies are weathering the so-called “SaaS-pocalypse” better than others. Kinaxis Inc. KXS-T -0.99%decrease chief executive Razat Gaurav believes his is one of them.

The supply chain management software vendor, one of Canada’s 10 most valuable publicly traded tech companies, has seen its valuation tumble along with other SaaS (software-as-a-service) subscription software vendors. All face questions about their viability as generative artificial intelligence tools have enabled anyone to “vibe code” new programs using AI prompts to do the work of developers.

SaaS stock valuations are at the lowest in the 13-year history of the BVP Cloud Index. Even after a partial recovery since February, Kinaxis shares are down 15 per cent in the past year. Other SaaS names, including Salesforce and Constellation Software, have fared worse.

“Everyone is in the same penalty box,” the Indian-born CEO, who joined Kinaxis in January, said in an interview. “Investors haven’t yet deciphered” which SaaS companies are at risk of AI disruption and which will benefit.

“We have a strong belief that for Kinaxis, AI is a tailwind,” Mr. Gaurav said.

Wednesday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

During its annual customer conference in Las Vegas last week, Kinaxis gave an in-depth look at how the company is deploying AI to transform its business.

Kinaxis has used predictive AI tools in its platform, called Maestro, for years. Now, it is creating an army of digital agents to help the company’s 410 customers – including many of the world’s largest companies – automate tasks. It’s also giving customers the capability to build bespoke agents themselves, and lending its own people to help them do so, in order to encourage adoption.

It has expanded Maestro’s capabilities to ingest supply chain-relevant data from a range of sources, including other enterprise software programs, weather feeds and even social media channels, to help agents make sharper decisions. “Agentic AI will be a significant expansion of our total addressable market,” Mr. Gaurav said.

His company is partnering with several global tech leaders to make this happen: Kinaxis is using large language models from giants including OpenAI. Nvidia is supplying technology enabling it to run faster optimization planning scenarios than rival options. Databricks is providing the data intelligence platform.

It’s part of an effort by the 42-year-old company to position itself as more than a supply chain planning tool provider, but rather the source of a more fulsome and flexible platform that’s suited to help companies respond to dynamic supply chain pressures that have included a pandemic, tariffs, wars and climate change-related disasters.

It’s “about connecting the dots between designing, planning, executing and delivering – and learning,” guided by an agent-driven system that “functions like an orchestra,” Mr. Gaurav said in his keynote address.

Customers in Las Vegas were “universally happy with the software and reaffirmed what we knew, that Kinaxis has continued to gain competitive momentum” against competitors SAP, Blue Yonder and o9 Solutions, said BMO Capital Markets analyst Thanos Moschopoulos, who attended.

There are reasons to share Mr. Gaurav’s optimism. Maestro is mission-critical software for giants including Ford, Lockheed Martin, Unilever, Shell and Eli Lilly, and the top-rated vendor in the field by market research firm Gartner. The sales cycle and product implementation times are lengthy.

Helping to manage a supply chain is a complex and difficult tax that can’t be replicated using generative AI tools alone, Mr. Gaurav said. For example, changing an expiry date on a single ingredient in one product for an unnamed pharmaceutical customer required 18,000 recalculations on Maestro, according to the CEO.

Clients “are not looking to vibe code their way through” making a homegrown replacement and Kinaxis has a 95 per cent customer retention rate, he said.

Mr. Gaurav, 52, arrived just over a year after predecessor John Sicard retired and after period a tepid sales growth. The new CEO, who lives in Austin but spends half his time in Ottawa, worked for most of his career in supply chain software (Kinaxis tried to hire him in 2010) before running a pair of enterprise software companies in other areas for eight years.

Mr. Gaurav said he was drawn to the opportunity to become CEO of a top company in a field he knows well as the sector is undergoing big changes. He’s worked with 70 to 80 current Kinaxis employees at other supply chain software companies, including Mark Morgan, president of commercial operations. “We brought in a leader who understands our industry, has a strong product and innovation orientation, and has a track record for scaling global businesses,” said chairman Bob Courteau, who led Kinaxis after Mr. Sicard left.

Mr. Gaurav has arrived at a time of growing momentum for Kinaxis. After expanding SaaS revenues in 2025 by 17 per cent over the previous year, to US$362.4-million (total revenue was US$548-million), Kinaxis has forecast 17 per cent to 19 per cent growth this year. SaaS revenues grew by 19 per cent in the fourth quarter and 21 per cent in the first quarter, surpassing expectations.

Kinaxis reported a better-than-expected adjusted operating earnings margin of 32 per cent of revenue in the first quarter and expects that to be in themid-20s for the year. Its average new deal size in the first quarter was twice as large as the same period a year ago, thanks in part to a recent overhaul of its sales team. Kinaxis has also changed its pricing to meter the usage of its tools, since charging by the human user alone won’t be as effective if AI agents do more of the work.

But investors still want Kinaxis to increase its SaaS revenue growth rate, said David Barr, lead manager of the Pender Small Cap Opportunities Fund.

“Look, the reason I’m here is to scale this business by three to five times” while maintaining current profit margins, Mr. Gaurav said. He thinks Kinaxis could market itself better and wants to cross-list the Toronto Stock Exchange-traded stock on a U.S. exchange once it hires a new chief financial officer (a search is underway). Acquisitions could follow, he said.

“I’m definitely here to make things exciting,” he said. If Kinaxis can keep up its performance and meet the AI moment with continued innovation, “I see no reason why we can’t be trading at a lot higher price.”

Crude oil prices pushed up by the Iran war helped propel Canada’s goods trade surplus in April up by 55 per cent to a 15-month high of $2.72-billion, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a surplus of $2.57-billion. Statscan revised March’s surplus down to $1.75 billion from an initial $1.78-billion.

Total exports increased 1.6 per cent in April to reach a record high of $75.16-billion. Exports of energy products rose 9.7 per cent in April, following an increase of 23.4 per cent in March

“Both monthly increases were driven by higher prices, which continued to rise in April amid the uncertainty caused by the conflict in Iran,” Statscan said in a commentary. Crude oil exports, which rose by 7.0 per cent, contributed the most to the gain.

The overall increase in total exports was offset by a 17.5-per-cent decrease in exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products, which had boomed in February and March. Lower shipments of gold to Britain were largely responsible for the decline.

Imports edged up 0.3 per cent to hit a record $72.44-billion, largely due to a 16.9 per cent increase in imports of basic and industrial chemical, plastic Although Ottawa is trying to diversify exports away from the United States amid a trade war between the two countries, the market still dominates Canadian trade.

Exports to the United States grew by 4.8 per cent to $51.98-billion, representing 69.2 per cent of all trade, the largest share since September 2025.

Imports grew 1.6 per cent to $42.50-billion. As a result, the Canadian surplus with the United States rose to $9.48-billion, the largest since February 2025.

After reaching a record high in March, exports to countries other than the United States fell 4.8 per cent in April. This was partially offset by higher exports to China, which reached a record $3.84-billion.