Author: Consultant

  • US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported

    U.S. job growth during much of the past year was significantly weaker than previously reported, according to new data published Wednesday.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down its total tally of jobs created in March by 818,000 as part of its preliminary annual benchmark review of payroll data.

    It marks the largest downward revision since 2009, and suggests the labor market began losing steam earlier than initially thought.

    “The labor market appears weaker than originally reported,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting.”

    The revised data is mostly derived from state unemployment tax records that employers are required to file. The figure may be updated when the government releases the final figure in February 2025.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revised-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html

  • Canada’s inflation rate fell to 2.5% in July, paving way for another BoC rate cut

    Canada’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.5 per cent in July, largely driven by lower prices for travel tours, passenger vehicles and electricity.

    It was the lowest inflation rate since March, 2021, and matched analyst expectations. It also brings consumer price growth even closer to the Bank of Canada’s 2-per-cent target.

    The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is on Sept. 4.

  • Gold Holds Above $2500 Ahead Of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

    Gold prices traded lower on Monday but held about $2.500 per ounce amid optimism that cooling U.S. inflation would kick off a cycle of interest rate cuts.

    A weaker dollar, heightened Middle East tensions and lingering concerns over China’s property market helped limit bullion’s losses to some extent.

    Spot gold dipped 0.3 percent to $2,501.06 per ounce while U.S. gold futures were marginally higher at $2,539.50

    The dollar began the week on a weak note after a couple of Fed officials said its time to adjust borrowing costs.

    In an interview with the Financial Times published on Sunday, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly noted that it is time to consider adjusting borrowing costs.

    Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated in a CBS interview that maintaining high rates for too long might create a problem on the employment side of the Fed’s mandate.

    Investors now look ahead to the release of minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, speech on Friday, for more clarity on the possibility of easing in September.

    On the geopolitical front, the U.S. is pushing for a deal between Israel and Hamas to end the war on Gaza, calling it ‘maybe the last opportunity to get the hostages home’.

  • AUG 19: Oil Extends Losses On China Demand Concerns

    Oil prices fell on Monday to extend losses from the previous session amid concerns about the outlook for oil demand from China and U.S.-led efforts to secure a cease-fire in the 10-month-old Middle East conflict.

    Brent crude futures fell 0.8 percent to $79.08 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were down 1 percent at $74.81.

    China’s economic activity data released last week proved to be a mixed bag. Also, data showed China’s oil refinery output declined for the fourth consecutive month in July, reflecting a slowdown in fuel demand.

    Investors also kept a close eye on the developments in the Middle East as the U.S. pushed for a deal between Israel and Hamas to end the war on Gaza, calling it ‘maybe the last opportunity to get the hostages home’.

    Israel has expanded its ground invasion of Gaza as U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken warned against attempts to derail the Gaza ceasefire process.

    Blinken met with officials in Israel today at what he called “a decisive moment” for diplomatic negotiations aimed at reaching a cease-fire in Gaza and securing the release of hostages.

  • Why Canada is on the verge of an unprecedented rail labor stoppage

    For the first time, Canada’s two main railway companies – Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City – are on the verge of a simultaneous labour stoppage that could inflict billions of dollars’ worth of economic damage.

    Why are both companies poised to stop?

    Contract talks between the Teamsters union and the companies usually take place a year apart, but in 2022, after the federal government introduced new rules on fatigue, CN requested a year-long extension to its existing deal rather than negotiate a new one.

    This meant both companies’ labour agreements expired at the end of 2023 and talks have been ongoing since. As a result, for the first time, the failure of negotiations would halt the vast majority of the Canadian freight rail system.

    The Teamsters represent around 10,000 members who work as locomotive engineers, conductors, train and yard workers and rail traffic controllers at the two companies in Canada.

    What is likely to happen next?

    The companies say they will start locking out workers in the early hours of Thursday if they cannot reach a deal, while the union says it is ready to call a strike for that day. CPKC has already given formal notice of a lockout.

    CPKC, created in 2023 through a merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, has a U.S. and Mexican network which it says will operate normally. CN also says trains on its U.S. network will run.

    That said, a strike will still lead to shipment disruptions south of the border. Both rail operators and some of their U.S. competitors have begun to refuse certain cross-border cargoes that would rely on the CN and CPKC networks.

    CPKC has said it would halt new rail shipments originating in Canada, and new U.S. shipments destined for Canada starting Aug. 20, if talks with the Teamsters union in Canada fail to progress.

    The railways move grain, autos, coal and potash, among other shipments.

    What are the sides arguing about?

    The union says CPKC wants “to gut the collective agreement of all safety-critical fatigue provisions,” meaning crews will be forced to stay awake longer, boosting the risk of accidents.

    CPKC says its offer maintains the status quo for all work rules, “fully complies with new regulatory requirements for rest and does not in any way compromise safety.”

    The Teamsters say CN wants to implement a forced relocation provision, which would see workers ordered to move across Canada for months at a time to fill labour shortages.

    CN says it has made four offers this year on wages, rest, and labour availability while remaining fully compliant with government-mandated rules overseeing duty and rest periods.

    What can the federal government do?

    Under article 107 of the federal labour code, Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon has broad powers and can order the sides to enter binding arbitration. In 2023, his predecessor, Seamus O’Regan, issued such an order to end a dockworkers strike in British Columbia. In that case, unlike the current rail dispute, the sides had largely agreed on the outlines of a deal.

    MacKinnon rejected a request last week by CN for binding arbitration, urging the sides instead to put in more effort at the negotiating table.

    What happens if the union strikes?

    If the Teamsters call a strike, the government can introduce back-to-work legislation forcing them to resume work. The previous federal Conservative government did that in 2012 to end a walkout by Canadian Pacific workers.

    The current Liberal government though, has shown little interest in such a move in past disputes, preferring the sides to focus on negotiations. A complicating factor is that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is being kept in power by the left-leaning New Democrats, who have traditionally enjoyed strong union support.

  • Aug 16: TSX Ends Higher Again

    The Canadian market ended slightly up on Friday, moving up for a seventh straight session, with gains in the materials sector contributing to the positive close.

    Easing concerns about U.S. economic growth and continued optimism about interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve helped underpin sentiment.

    The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index ended up by 21.89 points or 0.1% at 23,054.61. The index moved in a tight band between 22,984.44 and 23,070.60. The index gained about 3.3% in the week.

    Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM.TO), Sprott Inc (SII.TO), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO), Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV.TO), Morguard Corporation (MRC.TO) and Canadian Tire Corporation gained 1 to 2.2%.

    Celestica Inc (CLS.TO), Cogeco Communications (CCA.TO), West Fraser Timber (WFG.TO), Toromont Industries (TIH.TO), Precision Drilling Corporation (PD.TO), Stella-Jones (SJ.TO), TerraVest Industries (TVK.TO), EQB Inc (EQB.TO), FFI International (TIF.TO), Cargojet Inc (CJT.TO) and Waste Connections (WCN.TO) ended weak by 1 – 2.6%.

    On the economic front, data from Canada Mortgage And Housing Corporation said housing starts in Canada surged by 16% over a month to 279,500 units in July, the highest since June 2023.

    A report from Statistics Canada showed manufacturing sales declined 2.1% month-over-month in June 2024, compared to the preliminary estimate of a 2.6% fall, following a downwardly revised 0.2% rise in the previous month.

  • Aug 16: Gold Futures Settle Higher On Weak Dollar, Rising Rate Cut Hopes

    Gold prices moved higher on Friday thanks to a weak dollar and rising hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. Escalating tensions in the Middle East contributed as well to the yellow metal’s gains.

    The dollar index dropped to 102.55, down nearly 0.5% from the previous close.

    Gold futures for August ended up by $45.50 or about 1.85% at $2,498.60 an ounce. Gold futures gained 2.73% in the week, recording their 3rd successive weekly gain.

    Silver futures for August ended up $0.436 or about 1.54% at $28.778 an ounce. Silver futures gained about 4.7% in the week.

    Copper futures for August dropped to $4.1140 per pound, down $0.0250 from the previous close.

    Markets are now pricing in just a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point cut by the Federal Reserve next month, down from 55% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    In economic news today, preliminary data released by the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment in the U.S. has improved by more than expected in the month of August.

    The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index rose to 67.8 in August after falling to 66.4 in July. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 66.9.

    On the inflation front, the report said year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations were both unchanged from the previous month at 2.9% and 3%, respectively.

    Meanwhile, a report from the Commerce Department said housing starts plunged by 6.8% to an annual rate of 1.238 million in July after jumping by 1.1% to a revised rate of 1.329 million in June.

    Economists had expected housing starts to slump by 1.7% to an annual rate of 1.330 million from the 1.353 million originally reported for the previous month.

  • Calendar: Aug 19 – Aug 23

    Monday August 19

    Japan core machine orders

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for June.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for June.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for July. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.3 per cent.

    (10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q2.

    Earnings include: Estee Lauder Companies Inc.; Palo Alto Networks Inc.

    Tuesday August 20

    Euro zone CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s CPI for July. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.4 per cent from June and up 2.5 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for July. Estimate is a decline of 0.2 per cent month-over-month and down 0.4 per cent year-over-year.

    Earnings include: Lowe’s Companies Inc.

    Wednesday August 21

    Japan trade deficit

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for July. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent, respectively.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. preliminary release of annual payrolls benchmark revision.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed minutes released from July 30-31 calendar

    Earnings include: Analog Devices Inc.; Macy’s Inc.; Target Corp.; TJX Companies Inc.

    Thursday August 22

    Japan machine tool orders and PMI

    Euro zone PMI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Aug. 17. Estimate is 235,000, up 8,000 from the previous week.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for August.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for July. Consensus is a rise of 0.3 per cent on an annualized rate basis.

    Also: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (through Saturday)

    Earnings include: Canoe EIT Income Fund; Dollar Tree Inc.; Intuit Inc.; Toronto-Dominion Bank

    Friday August 23

    Japan CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for June. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.3 per cent (or 0.4 per cent excluding automobiles).

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for July. Consensus is an annualized rate increase of 2.3 per cent.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY

    Earnings include: Canadian Net REIT

  • RBC, TD to pay millions to settle U.S. SEC charges over recordkeeping violations

    RBC and TD Bank Group have agreed to pay tens of millions of dollars in penalties after being charged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over recordkeeping violations.

    RBC Capital Markets has agreed to pay US$45 million. Various TD divisions, including its recently acquired Cowen and Co., have agreed to pay a US$46.5 million penalty to the SEC plus a total of US$82 million to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

    The two banks are among 26 financial institutions that the SEC announced Wednesday had together agreed to pay about US$393 million along with implementing improvements to compliance policies.

    The enforcement action is related to the use of electronic communications through text messages and other alternative channels that weren’t being preserved as required.

    The regulator says it found “pervasive” levels of off-channel communications at the two banks, both between employees and with clients.

    RBC said in a statement it was pleased to have resolved the matter and remains focused on upholding all regulatory requirements. TD said it co-operated fully with regulators and that it’s enhancing its electronic communications policies and procedures.

    The penalties are part of a wider enforcement effort by U.S. regulators over communications methods that has led to over US$1.2 billion in penalties, including past payments made by Scotiabank and the Bank of Montreal.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 15, 2024.