Author: Consultant

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a seven-month low last week, pointing to still-low layoffs, though the labour market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work amid economic uncertainty.

The absence of labour market deterioration in the weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Wednesday argued against the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again next month, with inflation still elevated, economists said. U.S. central bank officials are divided over whether to lower borrowing costs further, though recent comments from top policy-makers have shifted market expectations strongly in favour of another quarter-point reduction at the Dec. 9-10 meeting.

“No one can construe any story about a surge in layoffs from this report,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “The message to the Fed from this data point is that there is no reason to rush to cut rates in December.”

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Nov. 22, the lowest level since April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week.

U.S. consumer confidence falls in November as view of jobs market, inflation worsens

The report was released a day early because of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Unadjusted claims jumped 25,712 to 243,992 last week. The increase, however, was less than the 32,642 rise that had been expected by the seasonal factors, the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data.

Unadjusted claims soared in California and there were notable increases in Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania.

Economists say President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and immigration policies had created an environment where businesses are reluctant to lay off or hire more workers, leading to what they and policy-makers call a “no hire, no fire” labour market. But some companies, including Amazon, are stepping up job cuts as they integrate artificial intelligence into some roles. Economists expect these job cuts could show up in the claims data next year, though filings have not always in the past increased in tandem with announced layoffs.

Despite the low level of layoffs, labour market slack is steadily rising. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.960 million during the week ending Nov. 15, the claims report showed. The so-called continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for November’s unemployment rate.

The government has extended the data collection period for November’s employment report, including for nonfarm payrolls, following the recently ended 43-day shutdown.

November’s employment report will be released on Dec. 16, and will include October nonfarm payrolls. There will be no unemployment rate for October as the longest shutdown in history prevented the collection of the household survey data.

U.S. stocks opened higher. The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

Continuing claims increased between the October and November survey period. A survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed its labour market measure, which correlates with the Labor Department’s unemployment rate, worsening in November.

“The latest claims data indicate hiring remains too weak to absorb the low numbers of people losing their jobs,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“Unemployment likely is rising faster than the claims data would usually imply, given that recent graduates who are struggling to find their first job and former federal workers who volunteered for buyout offers earlier this year are ineligible to claim.” The government reported last week that the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.

Though businesses are reluctant to boost hiring, they are spending more on equipment, underpinning the economy. A separate report from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau showed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, jumped 0.9 per cent in September after an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in August.

Economists had forecast these so-called core capital goods orders rising 0.2 per cent after a previously reported 0.4 per cent increase in August. The report was delayed by the recently ended 43-day shutdown of the government.

Delayed report shows U.S. retail sales up slightly in September

There were strong increases in orders for computers and electronic products, electrical equipment, appliances and components as well as transportation equipment and primary metals. But orders for machinery barely rose.

There have been wild swings in core capital goods orders this year as businesses responded to Trump’s sweeping import duties. Business surveys showed the tariffs have undercut manufacturing, which accounts for 10.2 per cent of the economy. But a surge in AI investment has boosted some segments of manufacturing.

Shipments of core capital goods soared 0.9 per cent after dipping 0.1 per cent in August. Business spending on equipment increased at a robust pace in the first half of the year. Economists expect investment in equipment was solid in the third quarter.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting gross domestic product increased at a 4.0-per-cent annualized rate in the July-September quarter. The delayed third-quarter GDP report will be released on Dec. 23. The economy grew at a 3.8-per-cent pace in the second quarter.

Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, rose 0.5 per cent in September after advancing 3.0 per cent in August.

“One thing is certain and that is this is going to be a gigantic quarter for real GDP growth, although admittedly it is only a rear-view mirror look back at the third quarter, which was before the government shutdown,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“Whichever side of the fence you are on, Fed officials are unlikely to press hard for a Fed rate cut in December.”

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. says its net earnings attributable to shareholders came in at US$740.6 million during the second quarter, compared with US$708.8 million for the same period a year earlier.  This amounted to 79 cents US per share in net earnings attributable to shareholders, rising from 75 cents US during the prior year quarter.   The Laval, Que.-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says its revenue amounted to US$17.9 billion during the period ended Oct. 12, up 2.6 per cent year-over-year from US$17.4 billion.  Total merchandise and service revenues came in at US$4.7 billion during the second quarter, rising 6.6 per cent from the same period a year earlier.  Couche-Tard CEO Alex Miller says the company reported same-store sales growth across all of its geographies for the second straight quarter.  Filipe Da Silva, Couche-Tard’s chief financial officer, says in a press release that the company bought back nearly US$900 million of its shares during the quarter. 

The fight between Nvidia and one of its loudest naysayers, investor Michael Burry, is escalating.

Following the “Big Short” investor’s series of social media posts arguing that the artificial intelligence investment boom is replaying the dotcom bubble from the 1990s, with Nvidia at the center of it, the chipmaker quietly circulated a private memo to analysts that explicitly name-checked Burry to push back on many of his claims.

“Nvidia emailed a memo to Wall Street sell side analysts to push back on my arguments on SBC and Depreciation. I stand by my analysis,” Burry said in a post on Substack, referring to stock-based compensation. “I am not claiming Nvidia is Enron. It is clearly Cisco.”

Burry has repeatedly warned that today’s AI infrastructure frenzy mirrors the late-1990s telecom buildout far more than the dot-com wipeouts investors remember. He pointed to massive capex plans, extended depreciation schedules and soaring valuations as evidence that markets are again mistaking a supply boom for durable demand.

The Nvidia memo, first reported by Barron’s, responded to Burry’s criticism towards Nvidia’s stock-based compensation dilution and stock buybacks.

“NVIDIA repurchased $91B shares since 2018, not $112.5B; Mr. Burry appears to have incorrectly included RSU taxes,” the memo said. “Employee equity grants should not be conflated with the performance of the repurchase program. NVIDIA’s employee compensation is consistent with that of peers. Employees benefitting from a rising share price does not indicate the original equity grants were excessive at the time of issuance.“

The memo also disputed Burry’s claims around depreciation life. To Burry’s charge that customers are overstating the useful lives of Nvidia’s graphics processing units in order to justify runaway capital expenditures, Nvidia counters that its customers depreciate GPUs over four to six years based on real-world longevity and utilization patterns.

Nvidia added that older GPUs such as A100s, released in 2020, continue to run at high utilization rates and retain meaningful economic value well beyond the two to three years claimed by critics.

The memo also rejects Burry’s suggestion of “circular financing,” saying Nvidia’s strategic investments represent a small fraction of revenue and that AI startups raise capital predominantly from outside investors.

Today’s Cisco

Burry said he believes Nvidia now occupies the same position that Cisco — the key hardware supplier that powered a massive capital investment cycle — held in 1999-2000.

Just as telecommunication companies spent tens of billions of dollars laying fiber optic cable and buying Cisco gear based on forecasts that “internet traffic doubles every 100 days,” today’s hyperscalers are promising nearly $3 trillion in AI infrastructure spending over the next three years, Burry said in a Substack newsletter.

The heart of his Cisco analogy is overbuilt supply meeting far less demand than expected. In the early 2000s, less than 5% of U.S. fiber capacity was operational, Burry said. Today, he believes the industry’s belief in boundless AI demand rests on similarly optimistic assumptions about data center power and GPU longevity, he said.

“And once again there is a Cisco at the center of it all, with the picks and shovels for all and the expansive vision to go with it. Its name is Nvidia,” Burry wrote.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

• The producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for September, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
• However, excluding food and energy, the index rose just 0.1%, below the 0.2% estimate.
• Retail sales increased 0.2% in September, a bit softer than the 0.3% forecast. However, sales excluding autos rose 0.3%, in line with the estimate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/core-wholesale-prices-rose-less-than-expected-in-september-retail-sales-gain.html

Oil prices fell on Monday, extending last week’s decline of about 3%, as investors weighed the chances for a U.S. rate cut against the prospect of a Ukraine peace deal that could lead to an easing of sanctions on major producer Russia.

The United States and Ukraine were set to resume work on a revised peace plan ahead of a Thursday deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, after agreeing to adjust an earlier version that critics said was too favourable to Moscow.

Brent crude futures fell 58 cents, or 0.9%, to $61.98 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was down 60 cents, or 1%, at $57.46 a barrel.

“The market is overwhelmingly focused on the macro view, which is this Ukraine peace treaty and the U.S. economy,” said Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital Group.

U.S. sanctions on state-owned Rosneft and private firm Lukoil, which took effect on Friday, have caused friction that would normally send prices up, but the market is preoccupied by the peace deal making it bearish for oil, he added.

Trump has set a deadline of Thursday for the deal, but U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that the deadline might not be set in stone.

A peace deal could potentially lead to a rollback of sanctions that have challenged Russian oil exports. Russia was the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world after the United States in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Uncertainty regarding U.S. interest rate cuts is another factor suppressing investors’ appetites.

However, the possibility of a rate cut next month increased after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested a cut in the near term.

“Expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December may also provide a counterbalance to bearish sentiment by improving global risk appetite,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm.

“Crude prices have already declined nearly 17% this year, reflecting persistent negative sentiment … at these lower levels, value buying is expected to gradually emerge.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/24/oil-falls-as-ukraine-peace-talks-edge-toward-a-solution.html

Newly hatched South Bow Corp. SOBO-T -0.78%decrease plans to use takeovers of rival oil pipelines as part of an ambitious plan to more than double the size of the Calgary-based energy infrastructure company.

South Bow, spun out of TC Energy Corp. TRP-T -0.79%decrease 13 months ago, held its first investor day on Nov. 19. And itoutlined plans to profitably build the company from its current $15-billion enterprise value, which includes its equity and debt, to $30-billion-plus over the next five years.

South Bow chief executive Bevin Wirzba said acquisitions are part of the growth strategy and the company is evaluating several potential opportunities. Analysts said South Bow will need to acquire between $3-billion and $8-billion of energy assets to hit its goal.

“We do have faith in the management team to execute, and industry M&A activity levels are high, but this is an ambitious strategy,” analyst Robert Catellier at CIBC Capital Markets said in a report.

South Bow reports $93-million third-quarter profit, up from past year

South Bow owns the Keystone pipeline connecting Alberta oil fields to Texas refineries. The company forecast it will spend roughly $4-billion on organic growth initiatives over the next five years on projects that include expanding its pipeline network in Alberta.

South Bow could acquire Calgary-based Gibson Energy Inc. GEI-T -0.60%decrease, which owns oil terminals in Alberta and Texas and has a $4.2-billion market capitalization. Or it could buy assets from Inter Pipeline Ltd. IPPLF +1.51%increase, which has 3,300 kilometres of pipelines and oil storage operations in the Alberta oil sands, analyst Robert Hope at Scotia Capital Markets said in a report.

South Bow management is also talking to private equity funds that own energy infrastructure and must eventually sell these businesses and pay back their investors, Mr. Hope said. The company will move cautiously, and “potential transactions must align with South Bow’s capital allocation framework, carry a similar risk profile and deliver per-share accretion,”he said.

South Bow’s opportunities to expand come partly from its existing foothold in what Mr. Wirzba calls an “irreplaceable corridor” that connects the strongest supplies of heavy oil in the world – from Alberta’s oil sands to refiners in the U.S.

And he is adamant Western Canadian production is only going to grow, as oil sands and conventional producers boost output, after investing billions of dollars on expanding operations and takeovers of their own.

“We believe that over the next 10 years, we could see again another 1-million barrels [a day] of growth potential out of that basin,” and moving through pipelines to refineries, Mr. Wirzba told the investor conference.

The first half of that expanded production won’t even need much capital to get going, he added; it will come from things like new solvent technology and improved well designs.

That’s great for industry, but producers are going to have to get their commodities to market somehow – and that’s where South Bow sees a shining opportunity, he said.

The company plans to build or acquire feeder pipelines, Mr. Wirzba said.

By creating more revenue streams, South Bow can spread its governance and optimization costs over several assets, “which makes our base business that much more competitive going forward.”

South Bow doesn’t intend to turn down opportunities that make sense,but that doesn’t mean it will start chasing risky deals in order to grow more quickly, he said, adding it will take a “disciplined approach to risk.”

South Bow explores increasing crude exports after Carney raises Keystone XL revival with Trump

Maurice Choy, an RBC Capital Markets analyst, said in a report that companies pursuing an active M&A program often face mixed reactions from the market.“However, management’s presentation at the investor day should offer some reassurance to investors that it will remain disciplined.”

South Bow’s revenues are splitwith roughly 30 per cent in Canada and 70 per cent in the U.S. Despite overtures from other parts of the world, Mr. Wirzba said it intends to remain focused only on those two markets.

“We can just be focused in this corridor, in this kind of industry, and be very successful. So we don’t see any need to deviate from that,” he said.

South Bow sends Canadian heavy oil to U.S. refineries that also import the fossil fuel from Venezuela. The South American country is the fourth-largest U.S. supplier, behind Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, shipping 228,000 barrels a day last year.

Given the political uncertainty in Venezuela, RBC’s Mr. Choy said South Bow has an opportunity to supply far more oil to Texas refineries.

“Roughly 700,000 barrels per day of crude oil imports from other countries in the U.S. Gulf Coast region may be displaced by Canadian products,” Mr. Choy said in a recent report.

In 2024, Canadian energy companies shipped 4.1 million barrels of oil each day to U.S. refiners.

Monday November 24

Japanese markets closed

Germany business sentiment

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales for October.

(12 p.m. ET) U.S. annual revision to industrial production

Earnings include: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.; Zoom Video Communications Inc.

–

Tuesday November 25

Germany GDP

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for September. Estimate is a rise of 0.4 per cent from August.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI final demand for September. Estimate is a gain of 0.3 per cent from August and up 2.8 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 city) for September.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for September.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for August. The Street expects a month-over-month drop of 0.1 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for October.

Also: Quebec and Saskatchewan fall fiscal update

Earnings include: Alibaba ADR; Analog Devices Inc.; Autodesk Inc.; Dell Technologies Inc.; Dollar Tree Inc.; HP Inc.; Workday Inc.; Zscaler Inc.

–

Wednesday November 26

Japan machine tool orders

U.K. autumn budget

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable and core orders for September.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Nov. 22.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for October.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for October.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Beige Book is released.

Earnings include: BRP Inc.

–

Thursday November 27

U.S. markets closed (Thanksgiving)

China industrial profits

Euro zone adjusted private sector credit and economic confidence

ECB minutes from Oct. 30 meeting are released

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s current account balance for Q3.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey: job vacancy rate for September.

–

Friday November 28

Japan jobless rate, retail sales and industrial production

Germany unemployment, retail sales and CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s real GDP and chain prices for Q3. Estimates are annualized rate rises of 0.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly real GDP for October.

Also: Ottawa’s budget balance

GUANGZHOU, China and AURORA, Ontario, Nov. 20, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Today, GAC and Magna announced a vehicle assembly program to accelerate electric mobility and expand localized EV production in Europe. The collaboration underscores GAC’s regional commitment, extending assembly, supply and sales, while highlighting Magna’s leadership in vehicle manufacturing. Serial production of GAC’s electric SUV AION V is now underway at Magna’s Graz facility.

“Europe is a vital market in GAC’s global development,” said Wei Haigang, President of GAC INTERNATIONAL. “Partnering with Magna enables us to bring locally assembled electric vehicles to European customers that reflect GAC’s values of smart technology, sustainability and craftsmanship.”

Roland Prettner, President of Magna Complete Vehicles, added: “This collaboration reflects the trust automakers place in Magna’s expertise. Our Graz facility provides flexibility and capacity, allowing OEMs like GAC to localize production efficiently and confidently.”

The AION V, which earned a five-star Euro NCAP rating, debuted in Finland, Poland and Portugal. GAC plans to expand into additional European markets through new partnerships, service and sales networks.

Magna’s Graz operation, known for operational excellence, is capable of producing internal combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles on shared lines. With 125 years of manufacturing experience, Magna has developed 40+ vehicle models and produced over 4 million vehicles worldwide.

Together, GAC and Magna are shaping the future of mobility by combining electrification, design and manufacturing expertise. It underscores both companies’ commitment to quality, reliability and sustainable mobility across Europe and beyond.

Linamar Corp. reported $169.2 million in net earnings during the third quarter, up from $138 million during the same period a year earlier.  The company says its earnings amounted to $2.82 per diluted share, up from $2.24 a year earlier.    The Guelph, Ont.-based auto parts manufacturer says its sales totalled $2.5 billion during the third quarter, down from $2.6 billion during the prior-year quarter.  Linamar says that since it continues to comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement, the majority of its products going into the U.S. are tariff-free.  Linda Hasenfratz, Linamar’s executive chair, says in a press release that in a low-growth environment, the company is being opportunistic to chase acquisitions. In October, Linamar announced it was expanding its U.S. manufacturing footprint through a US$300 million deal to buy select North American assets of Aludyne Inc.  This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2025. Companies in this story: (TSX:LNR)