Author: Consultant

Wall Street stocks ended higher on Monday following a market sell-off in previous sessions as investors eyed a busy week for quarterly results from key companies that would provide a glimpse of the U.S. economy’s health. The TSX also rose, but underperformed due to a pullback in the materials sector.

The benchmark S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rebounded from a decline over the past six sessions which had been caused by investors re-evaluating their expectations on interest rate cuts in the wake of strong economic data, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation and commentary from Federal Reserve officials.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher, with technology and financial stocks leading gains. The advance in the Canadian benchmark index was helped by gains for technology and financial shares, as investor sentiment showed signs of recovering after a rough period for the market since the start of April.

“We were oversold for sure. The sentiment in April has been really nasty,” said Barry Schwartz, a portfolio manager at Baskin Financial Services. “April showers hopefully will bring some May flowers,” added Schwartz, referring to the saying about better conditions around the corner.

“I think it’s just standard buy-on-the-dip after a 5% pullback that kind of wakes people up to put money to work,” added Lamar Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co in New Orleans.

Markets were gearing up for quarterly results from megacap companies this week, including some of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks such as Tesla, Meta Platforms, Alphabet and Microsoft.

In addition to top corporate earnings, markets are also awaiting the release later this week of the March personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – to further ascertain the monetary policy trajectory.

Fed policymakers are in a media blackout period ahead of their policy meeting on May 1.

Money markets are pricing in only about 41 basis points (bps) of rate cuts this year, down from about 150 bps seen at the beginning of the year, according to LSEG data.

The S&P 500 gained 43.37 points, or 0.87%, to end at 5,010.60 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.11%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.67%.

The S&P/TSX composite index ended up 64.59 points, or 0.3%, at 21,871.96, its fourth straight day of gains after it hit a near six-week low last Tuesday. The Canadian index has declined 1.3% since the beginning of April.

The Toronto market’s technology sector rallied 1.2% on Monday, led by a gain of 5.2% for the shares of Celestica Inc after analysts at RBC and BMO raised their target prices on the stock.

Heavily weighted financials added 0.6% and industrials were up 0.9%.

The materials group, which includes metal miners and fertilizer companies, was the biggest drag. It ended 2.8% lower as gold gave back some of its recent record-setting rally.

Shares of Energy Fuels fell 10.1% after the uranium miner announced a deal to buy Australia’s Base Resources.

On Wall Street, megacap growth stocks ended higher, with gains in Alphabet, Amazon.com and Apple between 0.5% and 1.5%. Nvidia gained 4.4% to rebound from a 10% drop in the previous session.

“This is predicated on positive technical expectations on tech earnings and traders not wanting to be short in front of it, and the PCE numbers later this week that people are somewhat sanguine about as well,” said Thomas Hayes, chairman of hedge fund Great Hill Capital in New York.

Tesla shares dropped 3.4% as the electric vehicle maker cut prices in a number of its major markets, including China and Germany, following price reductions in the United States.

Cardinal Health fell 5% after the drug distributor said its contracts with UnitedHealth Group’s OptumRx, one of its largest customers, will not be renewed when they expire at the end of June.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.87-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 49 new highs and 76 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 2,682 stocks rose and 1,499 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.79-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and 4 new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 40 new highs and 184 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.33 billion shares, compared with the 11.03 billion average for the last 20 days.

Reuters, Globe staff

Monday April 22

Euro zone consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for March. Estimates are month-over-month increases of 1.0 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for March. Estimate is flat month-over-month and down 0.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March.

(10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s market participants survey for Q1.

Earnings include: Nucor Corp.; PrairieSky Royalty Ltd.; Verizon Communications Inc.; Winpak Ltd.

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Tuesday April 23

Japan and Euro zone PMI

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(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for March. The Street is projecting an annualized rate rise of 1.2 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April.

Earnings include: Alphabet Inc.; Canadian National Railway Co.; First Quantum Minerals Ltd.; General Electric Co.; Lockheed Martin Corp.; PepsiCo Inc.; Tesla Inc.; Texas Instruments Inc.; United Parcel Service Inc.; Visa Inc.; West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.

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Wednesday April 24

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for February. The Street is projecting an increase of 0.1 per cent from January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian manufacturing sales for March.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable and core orders for March. Consensus is month-over-month increases of 2.9 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively.

(1:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s summary of deliberations for April 10 decision

Earnings include: Aecon Group Inc.; Alamos Gold Inc.; AT&T Inc.; Boeing Co.; Celestica Inc.; Choice Properties REIT; FirstService Corp.; IBM; MAG Silver Corp.; Meta Platforms Inc.; Methanex Corp.; Metro Inc.; Rogers Communications Inc.; Waste Connections Inc.; Waste Management Inc.; Whitecap Resources Inc.

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Thursday April 25

Bank of Japan outlook report and monetary policy meeting (through Friday)

ECB economic bulletin release

Germany consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey and job vacancy rate for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of April 20. Estimate is 215,000, up 3,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and GDP price index for Q1. Consensus is annualized rate increases of 2.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for March.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for March.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for March. The Street expects a month-over-month increases of 1.0 per cent.

Earnings include: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.; Amazon; Bombardier Inc.; Caterpillar Inc.; Comcast Corp.; Eldorado Gold Corp.; Intel Corp.; Merck & Co.; Microsoft Corp.; Newmont Goldcorp Corp.; Secure Energy Services Inc.; Teck Resources Ltd.; TFI International Inc.; T-Mobile US Inc.; Vermilion Energy Inc.

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Friday April 26

Japan CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for March.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for March. The consensus projections are increases of 0.6 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, from February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for March. The Street expects a rise of 0.3 per cent from February and 2.7 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment for April.

Also: Ottawa’s budget balance for February.

Earnings include: AbbVie Inc.; Chevron Corp.; Exxon Mobil Corp.; Imperial Oil Ltd.

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Shopify’s management team will host a conference call to discuss the first-quarter results at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. The conference call will be available via webcast on the investor relations section of Shopify’s website at https://investors.shopify.com/news-and-events/.

An archived replay of the webcast will be available following the conclusion of the call.

Housing, affordability and generational fairness are the buzzwords in the 2024 federal budget, unveiled by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Tuesday. But the government’s newly announced spending goes well beyond those areas, and will be paid for partly with significant tax increases on the top income earners in Canada, and corporations.

Ms. Freeland detailed $53-billion in new spending over five years, $21.9-billion of which will be funded primarily through increases to capital gains taxes and excise duties on tobacco and vaping products. Of the new spending, $19-billion is allocated to new housing and affordability measures. The next biggest spend is $10.7-billion for defence, followed by $9.1-billion in new spending for Indigenous communities and businesses. Funding for economic growth measures comes in at $7.6-billion, and $6.4-billion in new funding is allotted for community health and safety.

Those umbrella categories include things such as $2.4-billion to process asylum seekers and refugees and provide them with housing and health care. The long-awaited federal disability benefit will be funded with $6.1-billion over six years. The budget also projects that the national pharmacare plan, a key part of the minority Liberal government’s deal with the NDP for support in the House of Commons, will cost $1.5-billion over five years.

Federal budget breakdown: New taxes, housing affordability and deficits for the foreseeable future – The Globe and Mail

Canada’s annual inflation rate rose slightly last month, accelerated largely by higher gas prices, data showed Tuesday.

Statistics Canada reported that the overall inflation rate in the country was 2.9 per cent year-over-year in March, up from 2.8 per cent the previous

Inflation ticked higher in March. Are Bank of Canada rate cuts still in the cards? (msn.com)

Monday April 15

Japan core machine orders

Euro zone industrial production

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian manufacturing sales and new orders for February. The Street is projecting month-over-month increases of 0.7 per cent and 1.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s wholesale trade for February. Estimate is a rise of 0.8 per cent from January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for February. Estimate is a year-over-year rise of 20.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for March. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.4 per cent from February (or up 0.5 per cent excluding automobiles).

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for February. Consensus is a month-over-month rise of 0.4 per cent

Earnings include: Charles Schwab Corp.; M&T Bank Corp.

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Tuesday April 16

China GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

Euro zone trade surplus

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for March. Estimate is an annualized rate decline of 3.3 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s CPI for March. The Street expects an increase of 0.7 per cent from February and up 3.0 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for March. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 2.7 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for March. Consensus is a decline of 0.3 per cent on an annualized rate basis.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for March. Consensus is a rise of 0.4 per cent from February with capacity utilization gaining 0.2 per cent to 78.5 per cent.

(1:15 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell speak on the economy at the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings.

Also: Canadian federal budget is released.

Earnings include: Bank of America Corp.; Bank of NY Mellon; Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; Morgan Stanley; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; United Airlines Holdings Inc.; UnitedHealth Group Inc.

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Wednesday April 17

Japan trade balance

Euro zone CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian international securities transactions for February.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. beige book is released.

Also: G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Washington through Thursday.

Earnings include: Abbott Laboratories; CSX Corp.; Discover Financial Services; Kinder Morgan Inc.; Prologis Inc.; Progressive Corp.; U.S. Bancorp

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Thursday April 18

Japan machine tool orders

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of April 13. Estimate is 215,000, up 4,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for March. Consensus is an annualized rate drop of 6.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for March. The Street expects a decline of 0.1 per cent from the previous month.

Earnings include: American Airlines Group Inc.; Blackstone Inc.; Netflix Inc.; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.

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Friday April 19

Japan CPI

Germany PPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for February.

Earnings include: American Express Co.; Procter & Gamble Co.; Schlumberger NV

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spent much of the past year shooting down speculation about when interest rates will start coming down. On Wednesday, he let his guard slip.

At a news conference following the latest stand-pat rate decision, Mr. Macklem was asked whether a June rate cut was within the realm of possibilities. After a long pause, he responded: “Yes, it’s within the realm of possibilities.”

To the uninitiated, that might seem like a small admission. But in the carefully choreographed language of central bankers – who can move multi-billion dollar markets with the change of an adjective – it was a major signal.

Whether interest rates start coming down in June, July or later depends on the next few inflation reports. And this week’s higher-than-expected inflation data from the United States puts the Bank of Canada in a tricky spot.

But the bank’s governing council has clearly begun debating when to start easing monetary policy. And for the first time since the early months of the pandemic, rate cuts are on the table.

The Globe and Mail sat down with Mr. Macklem several hours after the news conference to ask about rate cuts, a possible divergence between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, government spending and why central bank officials are sounding the alarm about Canadian productivity.

The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

I have to start with your comment about a June rate cut being “within the realm of possibilities.” Is that a more or less likely possibility right now?

Tiff Macklem: Those weren’t my words, those were [Canadian Press reporter Nojoud Al Mallees’ words]. I was asked the question. Look, the answer is yes. It’s not the only possibility. And we’re going to take our decisions one at a time.

I’m not going to put it on a calendar. But we’ve been pretty clear, we’re encouraged by the progress we’ve seen. Since January – you look at all our inflation indicators – some are making more progress than others, but they’re all moving in the right direction. And what we’re looking for is for that to be sustained. We want to be confident that that’s durable. And when we are confident that it’s durable, it will be appropriate.

So we’ll see what decision date that actually happens on. But the message is we’re moving in the right direction. We are getting closer. We’re seeing what we need to see. We just need to see it for longer.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-were-seeing-what-we-need-to-see-we-just-need-to-see-it-for-longer-tiff

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Friday after an inflation-fueled selloff in the previous session, with investor assessing economic data from Singapore and South Korea.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led losses in the region, tumbling about 2%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 0.81% to close at 3,475.84.

The losses come as China’s exports for March fell more than expected, declining 7.5% compared to the 2.3% fall expected by economists polled by Reuters. This follows a weaker-than-expected rise in the country’s inflation on Thursday.

Singapore’s first-quarter gross domestic product climbed 2.7% year on year, advance estimates showed, faster than the 2.2% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023.

The city-state’s central bank held its monetary policy steady, leaving the width and level of its policy band unchanged. In contrast to other countries, Singapore uses exchange rate settings for its monetary policy, instead of a benchmark interest rate.

South Korea’s March unemployment rate rose to 2.8%. The country’s benchmark Kospi index slid 0.93% and ended at 2,681.82, but the small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.28% and closed at 860.47 after South Korea’s central bank kept policy rates unchanged at 3.5%, a 15-year high.

Get more from CNBC. Breaking news and updates on WhatsApp.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.21% to 39,523.55, while the broad-based Topix rose 0.46% and ended at 2,759,64. The yen continued to weaken against the dollar, hitting as low as 153.29.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.33% to extend losses from Thursday and end at 7,788.1.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/asia-markets-live-updates.html

National Bank of Canada (NA-T -0.80%decrease, Wednesday’s close $112.92) remained in a wide horizontal trading range mostly between $85 and $105 for about two years (dashed lines). Earlier this year, the stock rallied above the top of this range to signal a breakout and the start of a new uptrend toward higher targets (A).

Behaviour indicators, including the rising 40-week Moving Average (40wMA), confirm the bullish status. National Bank is becoming overbought as it rallies far above the 40wMA, which increases the possibility of a minor correction, either in price (toward the average) or in time (horizontal trading range). There is good support near ±$105; only a sustained decline below $100-105 would be negative.

Point & Figure measurements provide an initial target of $124. The large trading range (dashed lines) supports higher targets.