Canadian agrichemical company Nutrien Ltd. NTR-T +1.50%increase said on Monday it will indefinitely shut its Trinidad nitrogen operations at the Point Lisas facility after a review of strategic alternatives, citing continuing natural gas supply constraints and uncertainty in the country.
The decision comes nearly a year after Nutrien began a controlled shutdown of the facility on Oct. 23, 2025, citing port access restrictions imposed by Trinidad and Tobago’s National Energy Corporation and a lack of reliable and economic natural gas supply.
Nutrien said those challenges had reduced the free cash flow contribution from its Trinidad operations over an extended period, leading it to determine that an indefinite shutdown was the best course of action.
The world’s largest potash producer said the move was expected to improve its free cash flow and the return on invested capital.
Nutrien said the shutdown would not affect its 2026 nitrogen sales outlook, with its North American operations expected to meet customer demand.
The company produced about 85,000 metric tons of ammonia and 55,000 metric tons of urea per month at its Trinidad operations.
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has issued U.S. steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs CLF-N +1.31%increase an ultimatum to comply with its employment guarantees under The Investment Canada Act.
Last week, Cliffs said it intends to lay off up to 500 people in Canada as it shuts down its galvanized steel business in the country, blaming the decision on its inability to sell into the U.S. market owing to 50-per-cent tariffs imposed by the U.S.
In 2024, the Cleveland-based company acquired Stelco Holdings Inc. for $3.4-billion.
When the federal government approved the acquisition, it imposed a series of legally binding conditions, including maintaining for five years at least the same number of unionized employees in Canada, and the vast majority of non-unionized workers.
On Monday, Ms. Joly sent a letter to Paul Simon, president and general counsel with Stelco reminding the company of its legal obligations and again floated the possibility of Ottawa taking legal action against Cliffs if the company doesn’t comply.
“Where an investor fails to comply with an undertaking, the Act provides remedies for breaches, including an application to the superior court for orders that may include directing compliance, divestiture, or monetary penalties,” she said.
“I trust that such steps will not be necessary. Accordingly, I ask that Cleveland-Cliffs provide my officials with its plan for complying with all undertakings provided under the Act, within 5 business days of the date of this letter.”
Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled that legal action against Cliffs might be coming.
Halifax-based Emera Inc. EMA-T -2.52%decrease is bidding to build a national champion in the utility sector by merging with Calgary natural gas and electricity infrastructure owner Canadian Utilities Ltd. CU-T -0.61%decrease and parent ATCO Ltd. ACO-X-T +9.72%increase in a $35-billion union.
Emera, formerly a Nova Scotia Crown corporation, announced a friendly all-stock offer for theAlberta peers controlled by the Southern family on Tuesday that would create one of the 20 largest utilities in North America. The combined companies would have an enterprise value – their debt plus equity – of $72-billion, which their executives said would rank as the largest merger in Canadian history.
“Our goal is to create a Canadian champion,” said Scott Balfour, Emera’s chief executive, in an interview. He said the merger will create a company with the scale and financial strength needed to build networks that support projects such as data centres, new natural gas pipelines and integrated provincial electrical grids.
“Natural gas and electrical infrastructure define our industrial policy, and will power our future,” said Nancy Southern, chair and CEO at ATCO. She said the combined companies will be better positioned to serve power-hungry markets such as Alberta and expand into underserved regions such as Northern Canada.
The transaction unites Emera utilities in Nova Scotia, Florida and the Caribbean with Canadian Utilities operations in Alberta and Australia.
The three companies have been in talks for 15 months and Mr. Balfour said Prime Minister Mark Carney’s campaign to attract up to $1-trillion in infrastructure investment encouraged all parties to strike a deal that created a domestic powerhouse. Emera’s CEO, a native of Oakville, Ont., said: “This is a moment for Canada.”
If shareholders and regulators approve the merger, current Emera shareholders would own 60 per cent of the combined company and Canadian Utilities and ATCO shareholders would own 40 per cent. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2027.
If the deal is approved, Emera plans to spin out ATCO’s existing housing, defence and ports businesses into a new, publicly listed company, led by Ms. Southern and controlled by her family holding company, Sentgraf Enterprises Ltd. Ms. Southern said the value of these holdings is not reflected in ATCO’s current share price, which is one of the reasons she supports the Emera transaction.
Sentgraf would own approximately 7 per cent of Emera if the transaction is approved, making the Southern family’s company one of the largest institutional investors in the utility.
Emera is offering 0.755 of its share for each of Canadian Utilities non-voting class A shares and 0.819 of its shares for each Canadian Utilities class B shares. ATCO shareholders will receive 0.86 of a share in Emera for each of their shares.
Emera has a $21-billion market capitalization and said the deal values ATCO and Canadian Utilities’ shares at $14.3-billion, giving the merger an equity value of $35.3-billion.
The terms of the deal would mean Canadian Utilities shareholders receive a 20 per cent increase in dividends if the merger is approved.
The deal will see Ms. Southern join the Emera board as co-chair alongside Karen Sheriff, the current chair. Mr. Balfour will be CEO and the head office will remain in Halifax, while Canadian Utilities CEO Bob Myles will join the Emera executive team and continue to run operations in Alberta.
Mr. Balfour first pitched Ms. Southern on a merger over a lunch at the Calgary Stampede in 2025. The two met at the Ranchmen’s Club, a well-known business watering hole, and Ms. Southern said: “Scott asked me to lunch, yet I ended up paying.”
The two CEOs met at a time when large U.S. utilities were consolidating, in part to meet demands for investment in the electrical grids from data centre clients. In May, NextEra Energy Inc. and Dominion Energy Inc. announced a US$66.8-billion merger. In January, Constellation Energy Corp. closed a US$16.4-billion takeover of Calpine Corp.
Ms. Southern said after Mr. Balfour’s initial approach 15 months ago, ATCO, Canadian Utilities and their advisers looked at other potential partners before deciding a merger with Emera was the best way forward. She said inside ATCO, the merger was code named “Project Maple” because “we felt it was important to Canada.”
Emera used mountains as code names for the three companies in internal documents to successfully avoid leaks, with Canadian Utilities known as Cascades, ATCO nicknamed Alpine and Emera called Everest.
Emera hired investment bank Lazard and Bank of Nova Scotia as its financial advisers, along with law firm Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP.
ATCO and Canadian Utilities used New York-based Gordon Dyal & Co. as their financial adviser and law firm Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP.
BMO Capital Markets and Stikeman Elliott LLP worked for Canadian Utilities board’s special committee. CIBC Capital Markets and Norton Rose Fulbright Canada LLP advised ATCO’s special committee, and Felesky Flynn LLP provided Canadian tax counsel to the company.
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in August amid an influx of goods related to the artificial intelligence build-out and the vagaries of import tariffs, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
Imports swelled 4.3% for the month, pushing the total imbalance to $105.6 billion. That marked a 13.7% jump from July and was ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for $102 billion.
It also was the steepest deficit since the all-time gap in March 2025, recorded just before President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs against U.S. trading partners.
Though the monthly total was up, the year-to-date deficit of $138.2 billion was off nearly 20% from the same period a year ago.
“Rising prices overstate the moves, but nonetheless net trade is set to drag on Q3 GDP growth,” said Oren Klachkin, financial economist at Nationwide. “We see this as a sign of strong domestic demand, not economic weakness.”
Imports as a rule generally subtract from gross domestic product calculations. However, if the imports reflect stronger demand and consumption, they can be offset elsewhere.
Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs cut its tracking estimate for third-quarter economic growth to 3.1%, down 0.3 percentage point from its prior estimate. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker lowered its estimate to 3.7% following the trade report, down 0.1 percentage point from the last update.
WTI closed Friday, Oct. 2 at US$91.11/bbl, down 1.9% on the day and 1.6% for the week. Reuters
My 2-week base case is US$88–96, with an approximate centre near US$92–93. This is a scenario estimate, not a market quote.
The main upside risk remains Iran/Hormuz and broader Middle East supply disruption; the main downside forces are recovering Gulf exports, emergency reserve releases and record U.S. production.
Within your five stocks, CNQ, SU and IMO should have the strongest short-term sensitivity to WTI. ENB and PPL are predominantly infrastructure businesses and should react less directly.
Near US$90+ WTI, the earnings/cash-flow backdrop for Canadian producers remains favourable; the bigger short-term risk is geopolitical de-escalation causing the oil-risk premium to unwind.
WTI: my next-two-week range
Scenario
WTI Oct. 3–16
Probability*
Key trigger
Bull
US$98–108
~25%
Iran escalation, Hormuz disruption, strikes on energy infrastructure
Base
US$88–96
~55%
Supply risks persist but Gulf exports continue recovering
*My analytical scenario weights, not market-implied probabilities.
WTI was US$90.42 on Sept. 30, surged to US$92.87 on Oct. 1 after reports of additional U.S. military deployment to the Middle East and Chinese fuel-export restrictions, then fell to US$91.11 on Oct. 2 as emergency reserve actions eased some supply fears. That sequence illustrates how heavily the current price is being driven by geopolitical headlines rather than normal supply/demand changes alone. Reuters
Key Drivers
1. Iran / Strait of Hormuz — strongest upside risk
The market is still pricing a substantial geopolitical premium. Gulf export disruption has been severe enough that analysts recently raised their 2026 WTI average forecast to US$83.90, with disruption around Hormuz cited as the primary reason. Reuters
If military action expands again, WTI could move through US$100 quickly because the market would price the risk of another interruption to crude and refined-product traffic.
WTI impact: strongly bullish.
2. Gulf exports are recovering — major bearish counterweight
Middle East exports have improved. Reuters reported September regional crude exports of about 16.33 million bpd, the highest since the conflict began, supported by Saudi use of the East-West pipeline and renewed Yanbu loadings. Reuters
This is why I do not use US$100+ as my base case.
WTI impact: bearish below US$95.
3. OPEC+ meeting — Oct. 4
OPEC+ is expected to keep November production targets unchanged. Output among key producers remains significantly below pre-war levels, however, meaning actual available supply matters more than nominal quotas at present. Reuters
A surprise increase in supply would pressure WTI; maintaining current targets would be roughly neutral to mildly supportive.
4. U.S. inventories
U.S. commercial crude inventories were 427.3 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 25, up 0.92 million barrels week over week and about 10.8 million barrels above the year-earlier level. U.S. Energy Information Administration
ENB / PPL = pipelines/infrastructure → mainly volume, toll and contract sensitivity rather than direct WTI sensitivity
Two-week scenario sensitivity
Stock
WTI US$82–88
WTI US$88–96
WTI US$98–108
Oil sensitivity
CNQ
-8% to -14%
-3% to +6%
+6% to +12%
Very high
SU
-6% to -11%
-2% to +5%
+5% to +10%
High
IMO
-5% to -9%
-2% to +4%
+4% to +8%
High
PPL
-3% to -6%
-1% to +3%
+2% to +5%
Moderate-low
ENB
-2% to -4%
-1% to +2%
+1% to +3%
Low
These are scenario ranges I estimate, not analyst price targets or back-tested statistical forecasts. Equity markets, CAD/USD, interest rates, company announcements and broader TSX movements can overwhelm WTI sensitivity over a two-week period.
Company-by-company
CNQ — Canadian Natural Resources
Strongest pure producer exposure in this group.
Canadian Natural’s updated 2026 guidance calls for approximately 1.615–1.665 million boe/day, including roughly 1.188–1.229 million bbl/day of liquids. Canadian Natural Resources
At WTI above US$90, CNQ’s enormous liquids production produces substantial incremental cash flow.
Two-week view: most attractive sensitivity to an oil breakout, but also likely the biggest downside reaction if WTI suddenly falls toward US$85.
Suncor combines approximately 860,000 bbl/day of upstream production with a major refining network; refinery capacity reached roughly 511,000 bpd in 2026. Suncor
That integration matters.
High crude prices increase upstream earnings, while refining can provide diversification when refined-product margins are strong. Suncor also targets a corporate WTI breakeven of approximately US$38/bbl by 2028, illustrating the company’s considerable operating margin at current oil prices. Suncor
Two-week view: strong positive WTI exposure with somewhat more downside protection than a pure producer.
IMO — Imperial Oil
Imperial is also integrated.
Its 2026 guidance calls for approximately 441,000–460,000 boe/day upstream production and 395,000–405,000 bpd refinery throughput. ImperialOil
That means:
Higher WTI → stronger Kearl/Cold Lake upstream realizations.
Two-week view: positive, but IMO may move somewhat less dramatically than CNQ because refining moderates direct crude-price sensitivity.
PPL — Pembina Pipeline
Pembina should not be treated as a normal oil producer.
Its economics depend much more on pipeline volumes, processing, fractionation, contracts and marketing.
There is nevertheless some commodity exposure. Pembina recently raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to C$4.35–4.55 billion, partly because of stronger crude marketing and frac-spread contributions; approximately 65% of its 2026 frac-spread exposure was hedged. Pembina
Therefore:
WTI US$100 → positive sentiment and marketing effects.
WTI US$85 → negative sentiment, but far less earnings damage than CNQ/SU/IMO.
Two-week view: modestly oil-sensitive.
ENB — Enbridge
ENB has the lowest direct WTI sensitivity of the five.
Enbridge’s liquids pipelines carried approximately 30% of North American crude production, with expansions supported substantially by long-term arrangements. Enbridge
Its diversified pipeline, gas transmission and utility businesses generated C$4.78 billion of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, including C$2.34 billion from Liquids Pipelines. Enbridge
For 2026 Enbridge guides toward C$20.2–20.8 billion adjusted EBITDA and C$5.70–6.10 DCF/share. Enbridge
Therefore, ENB usually benefits more from high volumes and stable production growth than from a US$5–10 short-term WTI move.
Two-week view: defensive member of this group.
Relative WTI sensitivity
For the next two weeks, I would rank the degree of exposure — not investment merit — approximately:
CNQ → SU → IMO → PPL → ENB
That distinction becomes particularly important if WTI moves sharply.
If WTI breaks US$100
The largest fundamental earnings leverage should be:
CNQ / SU / IMO
PPL benefits more indirectly.
ENB gets the smallest incremental earnings boost.
If WTI falls below US$85
The greatest equity pressure would likely fall on:
CNQ / SU / IMO
ENB should show the greatest earnings insulation of this group because its cash flows are much less directly linked to spot crude.
What to watch Oct. 3–16
The most important trigger arrives immediately: OPEC+ on Sunday, Oct. 4. After that, watch U.S. crude inventory data on Oct. 7 and Oct. 15, daily reports on Iranian/Hormuz shipping, Saudi/Gulf export restoration, emergency reserve releases, U.S. production near 14 million bpd and the CAD/USD exchange rate.
Base-case conclusion
My central expectation is:
WTI: US$88–96
with frequent intraday moves of US$2–4 possible because geopolitical risk is unusually high.
If WTI holds above US$90, the near-term backdrop remains most supportive for CNQ, SU and IMO. ENB and PPL remain more stable infrastructure exposures rather than short-term oil-price trades.
Thesis falsifier: a credible U.S.–Iran de-escalation combined with normalization of Gulf exports and consecutive U.S. inventory builds would materially weaken this forecast and could push WTI toward US$82–88.
China has shut about a quarter of its banks as Beijing accelerates efforts to create fewer, better-capitalized lenders amid the country’s economic slowdown.
Fitch Ratings said smaller, rural banks remain China’s financial system weak spot, citing deteriorating asset quality, thin capital buffers and governance shortcomings.
China is accelerating its consolidation of smaller, mostly rural banks in a bid to shore up its financial system, amid ongoing concerns over an economic slowdown in the country.
Beijing’s policy-led consolidation saw a record 670 lenders closed in 2025 — about one-quarter of banks in the country — as authorities ramped up mergers and dissolutions to create fewer, larger and better-capitalized institutions, according to Fitch Ratings analysis.
Small and rural commercial banks “remain the weakest part of the system” in China, Fitch said in a report, which flagged their “poor asset quality, low capitalization and governance shortcomings,” especially in less developed regions of the country.
The rating agency said the return on assets among rural banks fell to 0.45% in the first half, down from 0.56% in 2021. Meanwhile, nonperforming loans among such lenders rose to 2.8% in the same period, ahead of the sector average of 1.5%, with greater exposure to smaller companies, property developers and local government funding vehicles.
The consolidation push is aimed at boosting oversight, curbing regulatory arbitrage and improving transparency, Fitch said, noting that stress at smaller lenders is unlikely to lead to systemwide contagion, pointing to their largely localized operations and limited interbank exposure.
The measures could “ultimately reshape competitive dynamics among smaller lenders, although their structural weaknesses may persist in the near term,” the rating agency added.
The move comes amid ongoing signs of strain in the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s gross domestic product grew 4.3% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since 2022, while industrial profits came in at 4.2% annually in August, their weakest pace this year.
U.S.-based Exxon and Canada-based Suncor appealed after the Colorado Supreme Court let Boulder’s lawsuit accusing them of state law violations proceed. President Donald Trump’s administration has backed Exxon and Suncor, arguing that the federal government’s authority to regulate air pollution precludes Boulder’s claims.
The top U.S. judicial body opens its new term on the first Monday in October, as is its custom. It also has major cases involving Trump’s hardline immigration policies and state-level bans on assault-style rifles, among others, lined up for the term.
Boulder’s city and county governments have accused Exxon and Suncor of helping drive climate change and misleading the public about the risks of fossil fuels. Boulder aims to hold the companies liable for past and future costs associated with climate change such as infrastructure repairs, environmental damage, emergency management and harms to public health.
The burning of fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, trapping heat and raising average global temperatures over time.
Nearly 60 state and local governments have brought similar suits seeking billions of dollars from fossil fuel companies, with more continuing to be filed, Exxon and Suncor told the justices. A ruling by the Supreme Court siding with the companies could lead to many of those cases being dismissed.
Monday’s arguments mark the latest example of energy-sector companies asking the justices to block climate-related liability or limit federal environmental regulation.
Backers of the oil companies argue that if Boulder’s most far-reaching claims are allowed to proceed, it could give states sweeping power over conduct occurring far outside their borders.
Energy companies and trade groups, along with states allied with them, have built a largely winning record before the justices over the past two decades in cases involving climate liability and the reach of federal environmental regulation.
The current court has a 6-3 conservative majority.
Exxon and Suncor argue, among other things, that Boulder’s claims intrude on an area controlled by the federal government as well as the Clean Air Act.
Justice Samuel Alito has recused himself from participating in the case. Alito owns stock in several oil and gas companies but not Exxon or Suncor, according to his financial disclosure forms.
The Supreme Court’s decision is expected by the end of June.
Canada’s services economy contracted for a fourth straight month in September as tariffs and the war in the Middle East contributed to economic uncertainty, S&P Global’s Canada services PMI data showed on Monday.
The headline Business Activity Index rose to 48.3 last month from 46.8 in August but remained below the 50 mark. A sub-50 reading indicates contraction in the sector.
“September once again proved to be a difficult month for businesses, with net reductions in output and new work both signalled,” Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.
“These declines were again closely associated with tariffs and the war in Iran, which resulted in a high degree of uncertainty, lower levels of export trade and operating expenses being raised to an uncomfortably high degree.”
The United States and Canada have adopted rounds of countertariffs since early 2025, while a U.S. import ban on many Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and dairy products took effect last week.
With a reading of 48.5, the new business index was below the 50 threshold for a fifth consecutive month as new export business declined at a steeper rate than in August.
The input price index rose to 62.2 from 61.7 in August, reflecting the rise in cost pressures.
Still, hopes that uncertainty could ease helped lift sentiment, S&P Global said. The future activity index rose to 61.4 from 56.4 in August, notching a five-month high.
The S&P Global Canada Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index edged up to 48.7 in September from 47.8 in August but was stuck below the 50 no-change mark for a fourth month in a row.
Data on Thursday showed that the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a six-month low of 51.5 last month from 53.0 in August.
Suncor Energy Inc. SU-T -0.33%decrease is selling its interests in three oil fields off Newfoundland to London-based Ithaca Energy PLC IACAF +1.63%increase. The deal, worth up to $1.55-billion, marks a major reduction in the Calgary-based company’s presence in the region, where it has been active for decades.
Suncor said on Sunday the sale of stakes in the Terra Nova, White Rose and West White Rose projects is aimed at honing the company’s focus on its main cash-generating assets in northern Alberta, where it is one of the largest players.
“We are aligning our portfolio around our competitive advantages and the strengths of our unparalleled, physically integrated business, underpinned by large-scale, long-life oil sands resources,” Rich Kruger, Suncor’s chief executive officer, said in a statement.
The company is selling its 48-per-cent interest in Terra Nova, its 40-per-cent interest in White Rose and its 38.6-per-cent interest in West White Rose for $1.2-billion.
Ithaca, one of the largest operators in the British North Sea, could also be on the hook for an additional contingent payment of up to $350-million, based on future oil prices.
The deal is expected to close in early 2027. Suncor said it will retain its stakes in the Hibernia and Hebron fields, which are also located off Canada’s East Coast.
Ithaca will become the operator of Terra Nova. Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired 17 years ago, discovered that field in 1984.
Ithaca said the deal marks its first international acquisition. The interests provide long-life reserves in an operating environment that is similar to that on the U.K. Continental Shelf, executive chairman Yaniv Friedman said in a statement.
Suncor also said on Sunday it is increasing the budget it has earmarked for normal-course share repurchases to $750-million per month from $500-million.
