Executive Summary

• S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index gained approximately +2.9% for the week ending May 8, 2026
• Sector materially outperformed the broader S&P/TSX Composite Index (+0.6%)
• Performance was driven mainly by:
  • Retail earnings strength
  • Consumer resilience
  • Select apparel and discount retail names
• Major contributors included:
  • Aritzia Inc.
  • Dollarama Inc.
  • Restaurant Brands International Inc.
• Volatility remained elevated due to oil-price pressure on consumers and concerns around economic slowing

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TTCD Performance — Week Ending May 8, 2026

Metric	Result
Weekly Performance	~+2.9%
May 1 Close	~395.96
May 8 Close	~399.05
Weekly Range	387.83 – 401.34
Weekly Trend	Positive / volatile

S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index

Based on historical data:

• May 1 close: ~395.96
• May 8 close: ~399.05
• Intraworkweek rebound from May 4 weakness drove positive weekly performance

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Daily Performance Snapshot

Date	Close	Daily Move
May 8	399.05	+1.10%
May 7	394.70	-0.19%
May 6	395.46	+0.39%
May 5	393.92	+1.57%
May 4	387.83	-2.05%

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Key Drivers

1) Strong Retail Earnings

The biggest catalyst was earnings:

• Aritzia Inc. rose ~4.5% after beating estimates
• Discount and branded retail continued outperforming

This helped offset broader market volatility.

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2) Consumer Spending Resilience

Despite:

• higher oil prices
• elevated borrowing costs
• weaker employment data

Canadian discretionary spending held up better than expected.

Strong areas:

• discount retail
• apparel
• restaurants

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3) Rate Expectations Stabilized

Canadian employment weakness reduced concerns about additional rate hikes:

• Lower yields supported consumer-sensitive equities
• Improved sentiment toward retail and discretionary spending names

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4) Shopify Volatility Limited Gains

The sector could have performed even better, but:

• Shopify Inc. fell sharply (~15.6% on May 5) after soft guidance

That weighed heavily on:

• TSX technology
• broader growth sentiment

Importantly:

• SHOP is not a core TTCD constituent, but sentiment spillover impacted consumer-growth names.

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Major TTCD Constituents (Representative)

Company	Theme
Dollarama Inc.	Defensive consumer
Restaurant Brands International Inc.	QSR resilience
Magna International Inc.	Auto cyclicals
Aritzia Inc.	Apparel momentum
Gildan Activewear Inc.	Consumer apparel

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Valuation Logic

The weekly move was driven mainly by:

• Earnings revisions
• Lower-rate expectations
• Rotation into selective consumer names

Not driven by:

• Broad economic optimism
• Strong wage growth
• Broad consumer acceleration

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Risks

Risk	Impact on TTCD
Higher oil prices	Reduces consumer spending power
Weak employment trend	Retail slowdown risk
Sticky inflation	Margin compression
Consumer credit deterioration	Discretionary demand risk
Weak housing market	Consumer confidence pressure

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Bull / Base / Bear Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)

Bull

• Rates stabilize
• Consumers remain resilient
• TTCD retests highs near 405–410

Base

• Sideways volatile trading
• Defensive retail outperforms cyclical retail

Bear

• Consumer spending weakens materially
• TTCD retraces toward 380–385

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What Would Disprove Current Strength

• Discount retailers begin missing earnings
• Consumer credit losses rise materially
• Oil prices remain elevated while retail margins weaken
• Wage growth slows further

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Actionable Takeaways

• TTCD outperformed the TSX this week largely due to:
  • apparel earnings
  • defensive retail
  • falling rate fears
• Leadership remains selective, not broad
• Watch:
  • Canadian employment data
  • oil prices
  • consumer spending trends
  • retail earnings revisions

Aritzia Inc.’s ATZ-T +2.89%increase
latest quarter brought a 35 per cent jump in profit and a revenue increase that was almost just as high.

The Vancouver-based retailer says its fourth quarter net income reached $134.3-million, up from $99.6-million a year earlier.

That result for the period ended March 1 translated to $1.12 per diluted share, up from 84 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, Aritzia’s net income amounted to $138.2-million, rising from $98-million during the fourth quarter of last year.

The company’s net revenue increased by about 33 per cent to $1.19-billion over the same period.

The result comes as Aritzia continues to open more boutiques and push an app it recently launched.

Enbridge Inc. ENB-T +0.22%increase reported first-quarter adjusted profit on Friday that surpassed analysts’ expectations as robust performance in its gas transmission and utility businesses offset softer results in its liquids pipelines segment.

The pipeline operator is benefiting from rising demand for natural gas, utility infrastructure and power supply for data centers, allowing it to generate steady growth despite geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility.

The company said it added projects worth about $2-billion to its secured growth backlog during the quarter, including the Cone onshore wind project in Texas and expansions at the Tres Palacios and Dawn Hub storage facilities, as well as its Vector Pipeline system.

Its secured growth backlog now stands at about $40-billion and is expected to be funded through its annual growth capital investment capacity of $10-billion to $11-billion.

Enbridge acquired three utilities from U.S.-based Dominion Energy last year, expanding its gas distribution business.

Adjusted core profit from gas distribution and storage business rose 6.8 per cent to $1.71-billion in the reported quarter, while gas transmission earnings increased 6.6 per cent to $1.57-billion.

In its gas transmission segment, earnings benefited from stronger contracting across U.S. pipeline assets and higher revenues from the Aitken Creek and BC Pipeline systems.

The gas distribution business was supported by higher regulated rates in Ontario, Utah and North Carolina, which partly helped cushion weaker liquids pipeline results, reflecting lower Mainline contributions.

Enbridge’s Mainline system, which moves nearly half of the crude in the United States, saw quarterly adjusted core profit fall 13.2 per cent to $1.45-billion.

The Calgary, Alberta-based company posted adjusted profit of 98 cents per share for the three months ended March 31, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 94 Canadian cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.

U.S. employment increased more than expected in ⁠April while ​the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 per cent, pointing to labor market resilience and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged for some time.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 185,000 ​advance in March, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor ‌Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 62,000 jobs after a previously reported 178,000 rebound in March.

Estimates ranged from a loss of 15,000 jobs to a gain of 150,000 positions. Economists said it was ‌too early ​for the effects of the ‌U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to show. The conflict has raised gasoline and diesel ​prices as well as the cost of other commodities ⁠that are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

Payrolls have been ⁠choppy since mid-2025, alternating between gains and losses. Economists have attributed the swings to an adjustment to ​the birth-and-death model, which the government uses to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month. Some said a large turnover in firms created was making it hard for the BLS to estimate job creation associated with new ⁠companies.

Weather, strikes and government job cuts as well as big changes to the labor force as President Donald Trump’s administration cracks down on illegal immigration have also added to volatility, they said. Economists recommended looking at the three-month moving average of payrolls.

The labour market has been stuck in what economists and policymakers have called ⁠a “slow hire, slow fire” zone, a paralysis blamed on ​trade and immigration policies. Lower immigration and an aging population meant the economy needed ⁠to create between zero and 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, economists ‌estimated.

With the so-called breakeven level of job growth much lower than in prior years, ​they did not expect a surge in the unemployment rate, even if employment gains slowed considerably.

The report bolstered financial market views that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged into 2027. The U.S. central bank last week ​left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50-per-cent-3.75-per-cent range, citing inflation worries.

Canada’s unemployment rate rose to a six-month high in April to 6.9 per cent as the economy lost a net of 17,700 jobs in March, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday, indicating a continued weakness in the labour market which has struggled in the face of U.S tariffs and trade uncertainty.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted net job gains of 15,0000 and the unemployment rate of 6.7 per cent, almost mirroring the month of March when employment rose by 14,100 and jobless rate was the same.

The Bank of Canada said in its Monetary Policy Report last month that indicators such as the employment rate, hours worked and job vacancies suggest slack, or underutilized capacity, in the labour market, although layoffs remain modest.

The looming uncertainty around the future of the North American free trade deal and the knock-on impacts of the higher prices from the Iran war has continued to layer over the impact of U.S. tariff on the economy for over a year.

The job losses were completely concentrated in full-time jobs which lost a net of 46,700 people, offset only by a gain of 29,000 jobs in the part-time sector.

The net overall decline in employment over the first four months of 2026 was concentrated in full-time work, which fell by 111,000 between January and April, Statscan said.

The goods-producing sector, which is the most exposed to U.S. tariffs, saw employment drop by 26,800 jobs in April, while the services sector, where four out of every five people are employed in Canada, reported a 9,100 job gain.

Data indicate more people looking for work

Average hourly wages of permanent employees, a metric closely tracked by the BoC to gauge rise in inflation expectations, grew 4.8 per cent from a year earlier, versus 5.1 per cent in March.

The participation rate – the portion of the population over the age of 15 that is economically active – edged up to 65 per cent in April from 64.9 per cent in the prior month, Statscan said.

A higher participation rate along with a higher unemployment rate indicates more people were searching for work in the economy.

The unemployment rate among the core-aged work force of 25-54 year-olds as well as among the youth increased to 6 per cent and 14.3 per cent respectively.

“For the Bank of Canada, evidence that slack within the labour market is, if anything, increasing rather than reducing, should limit the ability for the oil price shock to spread into wider inflationary pressure,” Andrew Grantham, a senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note.

CIBC expects Canada’s central bank to leave interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, he said. Money markets are pricing in one 25-basis-point rate hike in October, which would bring the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate to 2.5 per cent.

The Canadian dollar was trading down at 73.14 U.S. cents. Yields on the two-year government bonds were down 8.4 basis points to 2.501 per cent.

 Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) on Tuesday reported first-quarter earnings of $459 million.

On a per-share basis, the Toronto-based company said it had net income of $1.03. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs and to account for discontinued operations, came to $1.23 per share.

The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of three analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.21 per share.

The news and financial information company posted revenue of $2.09 billion in the period, also surpassing Street forecasts. Three analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $2.06 billion.

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This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research.

Access a Zacks stock report on TRI at https://www.zacks.com/ap/TRI

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo

Crude Oil Prices Forecast next month

Base case for next month: crude oil likely trades sideways to moderately higher, with WTI roughly US$58–65/bbl and Brent roughly US$62–70/bbl, assuming no major supply shock. EIA STEO and OPEC MOMR are the most useful baseline sources for near-term supply/demand balance [1] [4].

Bull case: geopolitical disruption, OPEC+ restraint, or stronger demand could push prices above the range [4].

Bear case: weaker global growth, higher inventories, or extra supply could pull prices lower [1].

Takeaway: next month’s oil price risk is more event-driven than trend-driven; watch inventories, OPEC+ messaging, USD strength, and Middle East supply headlines.

Oil and gas producer Cenovus Energy CVE-T -4.23%decrease posted a rise in first-quarter profit on Wednesday, helped by higher benchmark crude oil prices and as the acquisition of MEG Energy boosted its upstream production to record levels.

Cenovus’ acquisition of MEG last year added the Christina Lake oil sands assets to its portfolio, boosting production and strengthening its position as one of Canada’s largest heavy oil producers.

The Calgary-based company said total upstream production rose to a record 972,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the quarter, from 818,900 boepd a year earlier.

Total downstream crude throughput was 458,500 barrels per day (bpd), compared with 665,400 bpd a year ago, though Cenovus achieved an overall crude unit utilization rate of 97 per cent.

Cenovus’ board also approved a 10-per-cent increase in its quarterly base dividend to 22 cents per share, beginning in the second quarter.

The company’s net earnings rose to $1.57-billion, or 83 cents per diluted share, in the three months ended March 31, from $859-million, or 47 cents per share, a year earlier.

Tim Hortons parent company Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR-T -4.74%decrease reported a first-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of US$338-million, up from US$159-million a year earlier.

The company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says the profit amounted to 97 cents US per diluted share for the quarter ended March 31, up from 49 cents US per diluted share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the company, which includes Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs, totalled US$2.26-billion, up from US$2.11-billion.

Overall comparable sales were up 3.2 per cent.

On an adjusted basis, Restaurant Brands says it earned 86 cents US per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 75 cents US per diluted share in the first quarter of 2025.

Analysts on average had expected an adjusted profit of 82 cents US per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.