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 Prime Minister Mark Carney is heading to Europe on Thursday, visiting Ireland and France for the G7 summit.

The summit is running from June 15 to June 17 in Evian-les-Bains and France says the focus will be on reducing global inequalities.

The summit was delayed by a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the White House would host a UFC fight on June 14, which is Flag Day in the United States and Trump’s 80th birthday.

Fen Osler Hampson, an international affairs professor at Carleton University, told The Canadian Press the leaders will have to focus on “managing Trump” at the summit.

“The real discussions will be among the remaining G6 leaders when Trump isn’t in the room, in terms of how you deal with a president who is irascible, unpredictable and making life difficult for everyone,” he said, noting that the president has personally insulted several European leaders.

The government of France says priorities at the summit will include settling major geopolitical crises, including through G7 support to Ukraine, online protection for children, crime and “the new rules of play of global governance.”

However, Hampson said the official agenda generally doesn’t reflect what the key issues of discussion will be. He said those are likely to include conflict in the Middle East, energy security and U.S. tariffs.

Canada hosted the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Alta., last year. Trump left a day early due to the conflict in the Middle East.

The G7 includes Canada, France, the United States, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and Italy. The European Union also participates in talks, though the bloc isn’t counted in the group’s name.

Before the summit, Carney is making stops in Paris and Dublin, Ireland.

A news release from the Prime Minister’s Office says Carney and Macron will discuss deepening ties in sectors such as defence, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and critical minerals.

Ireland, which has become a major centre for foreign investment and businesses, is set to assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union in July.

The PMO notes Carney’s visit will be the first official trip for a Canadian prime minister to Ireland in nearly a decade. Carney will meet with the Taoiseach of Ireland, Micheál Martin and Irish President Catherine Connolly as part of talks to deepen cultural and trade ties between the nations.

Carney met with 150 Irish business leaders in Ottawa last month. The embassy said on social media that the discussion focused on economic opportunities for the countries, innovation, investment and growth across sectors.

Bilateral merchandise trade between Canada and Ireland reached $6 billion in 2025. Canadian exports of $1.1 billion to Ireland were led by cereals and imports of $4.9 billion were led pharmaceutical products.

Trade between the countries is underpinned by the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, known as CETA, which has been provisionally applied but has not yet been ratified by several states, including Ireland.

Martin met with Carney in Ottawa in September. At the time, he said Ireland would be ratifying the CETA deal. A joint statement from the leaders said they agreed on the importance of Ireland’s full ratification of the agreement by 2026.

The Irish Times reported late last month that the Irish government was set to approve new legislation to accelerate ratification of the trade deal to reduce the country’s reliance on the United States.

There are an estimated 4.5 million Canadians that have Irish ancestry, representing almost 15 per cent of the country’s population.

Carney also has deep ties to Ireland, with his grandparents immigrating from County Mayo in the early 1920s.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 7, 2026.

OTTAWA — There was one word on the lips of many Canadians economists, politicians and journalists this past week: recession.

Recent economic data has painted a mixed picture of Canada’s economy, and some interpretations make the argument for a recession.

Here’s what you need to know about the state of Canada’s economy.

Why are people talking about a recession?

On May 29, Statistics Canada reported real gross domestic product figures for the first three months of the year.

The quarter-over-quarter change was so mild that StatCan considered it statistically flat, or no change in real GDP.

But when economists are gauging the health of the economy in a given quarter, they often annualize quarterly figures, which can magnify small positive or negative changes in the numbers.

The annualized change in real GDP was a 0.1 per cent decline, coming off a one per cent drop in the fourth quarter of last year.

That data triggered the recession talk.

What’s a technical recession?

Two quarters in a row of declining GDP is a bar used by some analysts to define a “technical” recession, though a number of economists consider the term unhelpful.

• Canada is in a technical recession, economists say. Here’s what that means

Appearing before a parliamentary committee on Monday, Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers warned MPs against putting too much stake in that definition.

“Simply the fact that you have to put the term ‘technical’ in front of it sort of tells you that you need to really look past that one indicator,” she said.

The more widely accepted but nebulous definition of a recession refers to a downturn where Canada’s economy is not just shrinking on a technical basis, but where that weakness is widespread through the economy.

Recessions are marked by job losses, households reining in spending and tough operating conditions for businesses across the economy.

“Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, or contracting GDP, is necessary but not sufficient to call a recession in Canada or anywhere else,” said Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist at Desjardins.

What are political leaders saying?

The federal Conservatives have seized on the latest GDP results, blaming Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals for a “full-blown recession.”

In addition to stagnant GDP, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and other MPs have pointed to rising food bank usage, consumer insolvencies and job losses in the first four months of the year to argue Carney’s policies have damaged the Canadian economy.

Liberals have meanwhile largely avoided using the word “recession” at all while defending their economic stewardship.

Carney acknowledged this week that the latest GDP figures show some “weakness,” though he noted positive trends like rising business investment in machinery and equipment are encouraging.

The prime minister argued that cuts to immigration and government spending are weighing on growth. He also said the work to pivot the economy away from reliance on the United States is going to take time to pay off, and economic data will be “uneven” while that unfolds.

Poilievre has accused Carney of ducking accountability over the state of the economy.

Who decides if we’re in a recession?

A recession is not declared by the federal government, the Bank of Canada or any officially designated body.

In Canadian economic circles, the traditional arbiter of a recession is the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council. It performs a similar function to the National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States.

The council weighed in on the recession question Friday morning, arguing it was too soon to use the label to describe the state of Canada’s economy.

Declines in the economy must be pronounced, pervasive and persistent to be considered a recession, the think tank noted. This current downturn doesn’t yet meet that bar, the Business Cycle Council determined.

StatCan’s May 29 GDP report also expects the economy rebounded in April, setting the second quarter up for a return to growth. A week later, the agency reported a surprise gain of 88,000 jobs for May, which many economists said should pour cold water on recession talk.

What even is GDP?

Gross domestic product refers to the total value of finished goods and services produced in a country over a given period. It’s broadly used as a gauge of the economy’s health.

StatCan said rising imports of gold and declining business investment were offset by higher household spending and firms stockpiling inventory, leaving first-quarter GDP flat compared to the previous three months.

Bartlett said recent data is “idiosyncratic” from historical trends as the economy adjusts to U.S. tariffs and shifting geopolitical tides.

He also said GDP is not a perfect measure of the economy and struggles with tracking services. It can be volatile, and StatCan revises it initial reports regularly before landing on final figures months or years down the road.

Bartlett said that’s another reason to use caution around the latest figures.

“To hang your hat on one number that could easily be revised in either direction, either up or down, I think we need to see what these subsequent revisions look like to this data before we’d ever be comfortable making a call on a recession,” he said.

Why does GDP matter?

While GDP might not be a perfect measure, Concordia University economics professor Moshe Lander argues it’s still worth tracking. He compares it to his mother measuring his height by notching a mark on the door frame as he grew up — it’s the trend that matters.

“Even though it’s constantly revised, even though its riddled with flaws, and even though there is noise, what you do tend to find is that a lot of the things that do matter to us are highly correlated with this imperfect measure,” Lander said.

Rising GDP tends to mean businesses are producing more effectively, allowing them to raise wages. A better economy also means more tax dollars are flowing up to federal and provincial governments, which in theory helps Ottawa and the provinces fund better services for Canadians.

Real GDP per capita — measuring output on a per person basis — is sometimes used as a stand-in to measure whether quality of life is improving in a country.

Canada’s growth in real GDP per capita has lagged the United States for years, though the metric was positive in the first quarter of 2026, partly reflecting a shrinking population.

But measures like GDP, inflation and the unemployment rate are broad aggregates for the health of an economy and don’t necessarily reflect an individual’s experiences.

Lander said that makes relying on any one indicator an even more perilous venture for policy-makers and individual households trying to make sense of the economy.

“We’re increasingly living in our microeconomic world, and GDP is fundamentally a macroeconomic variable. Because society is becoming a little more unequal, coming up with one number to try and describe that macro economy is becoming increasingly frustrating,” he said.

“So when we say then that we entered a recession, I think there’s a big pushback then from people saying, ‘Uh, I feel like I’ve been in a recession for the last decade.’”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 7, 2026.

Summary:

• TSX starts the week under pressure after closing June 5 at 34,413.45, down 2.28% on the day, following a broad risk-off sell-off.
• Wednesday, June 10 is the key day: U.S. CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET and the Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET.
• Rates and inflation are the main TSX drivers this week. Hot U.S. inflation would pressure tech, real estate, utilities and gold.
• Middle East / Strait of Hormuz risk remains critical for oil, energy stocks, gold and inflation expectations. Reuters reported global stocks fell and oil rose as hopes for a quick Iran-war resolution faded.
• Base case: volatile TSX, with energy supported by oil risk, while tech and rate-sensitive sectors stay vulnerable.

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Key Events to Watch

Date	Event	TSX Impact
Mon Jun 8	No major scheduled releases	Market digests Friday sell-off; watch technical rebound or follow-through selling.
Tue Jun 9	Canada merchandise trade balance; U.S. trade balance	CAD, industrials, materials, exporters.
Wed Jun 10	U.S. CPI — May	Biggest global market risk. Hot CPI = higher yields, negative for tech/gold/REITs.
Wed Jun 10	Bank of Canada rate decision	Banks, CAD, utilities, real estate, consumer stocks.
Thu Jun 11	U.S. PPI; Canada building permits; ECB meeting	Inflation + housing + global rate tone.
Fri Jun 12	U.S. Michigan sentiment; Canada capacity utilization	Consumer confidence and industrial demand signals.

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Sector Impact — TSX

Sector	Bias This Week	What to Watch
Energy	Positive / volatile	Oil prices, Hormuz disruption, Iran-war headlines.
Materials / Gold	Mixed	Gold may rebound if fear rises, but hot CPI / higher yields are negative.
Financials	Mixed	BoC tone, yield curve, credit-risk language.
Technology	Negative bias	U.S. Nasdaq weakness, bond yields, AI/semiconductor sell-off.
Utilities / REITs	Vulnerable	Higher yields reduce valuation support.
Consumer discretionary	Vulnerable	Inflation, rates, consumer sentiment.
Staples	Defensive	Could outperform if risk-off continues.

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Base / Bull / Bear Scenarios

Scenario	Trigger	Likely TSX Reaction
Bull	U.S. CPI softer than expected + BoC neutral/dovish + oil stable	TSX rebound; tech, banks, rate-sensitive stocks recover.
Base	CPI near expectations + BoC holds steady + geopolitical risk contained	Choppy, sideways TSX; sector rotation continues.
Bear	Hot CPI + hawkish BoC/Fed repricing + Middle East escalation	TSX sells off further; tech, REITs, gold exposed; energy may outperform but volatility rises.

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Actionable Takeaways

• Watch June 10 first: U.S. CPI and BoC are the week’s main market-moving events.
• For TSX direction, monitor U.S. 10-year yield, WTI oil, gold, CAD/USD and Nasdaq futures.
• Stronger inflation data likely favours energy and defensive sectors over tech and rate-sensitive stocks.
• A cooler inflation print could support a short-term rebound after Friday’s sell-off.
• Keep risk controls tight: this week is driven more by macro headlines than company fundamentals.

Monday June 8

China’s foreign reserves, aggregate yuan financing, new yuan loans and trade surplus

Japan’s real GDP and bank lending

Germany’s factory orders

(11 a.m. ET) U.S. New York Fed one-year inflation expectations

Earnings include: Campbell’s Co.

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Tuesday June 9

Japan’s machine tool orders

Germany’s industrial production and trade surplus

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP Employment (four-week average change).

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for April.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for May. The Street expects an annualized rate rise of 0.7 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for April.

Earnings include: Casey’s General Stores Inc.; JM Smucker Co.; Stingray Group Inc.

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Wednesday June 10

China’s CPI and PPI for May.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for May. The Street is projecting a gain of 0.5 per cent from April and 4.2 per cent year-over-year.

(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s policy announcement with press conference to follow at 10:30 a.m.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for May.

Earnings include: Oracle Corp.; Major Drilling Group International Inc.; North West Co. Inc.

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Thursday June 11

ECB’s monetary policy meeting

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for April. Estimate is a month-over-month decline of 3.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of June 6. Estimate is 219,0000, up 6,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI Final Demand for May. Consensus is a rise of 0.7 per cent from April and up 6.4 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. quarterly services survey for Q1.

Earnings include: Adobe Systems Inc.; Dollarama Inc.; Lennar Corp.

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Friday June 12

Japan’s industrial production

Germany’s CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s national balance sheet and financial flow accounts for Q1.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for April. Estimate is a year-over-year fall of 5.0 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for June (preliminary reading).

Executive Summary — TTTK.TO / S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology

• TTTK weakened over the past 5 trading days, mainly because TSX technology stocks sold off with North American growth/AI names.
• The sharpest pressure came Friday, June 5, when the TSX had its biggest drop in nearly four months and technology was one of the leading losing sectors.
• U.S. tech weakness spilled into Canada: the Nasdaq fell 4.18% Friday, with semiconductors and growth stocks hit by higher-rate concerns.
• Key TTTK constituents were weak on June 5: Shopify -5.42%, BlackBerry -9.17%, Lightspeed -2.43%, OpenText -1.95%, while CGI was flat.
• Cause: rate-hike / bond-yield pressure + risk-off selling after strong U.S. jobs data, which hurts long-duration tech valuations more than defensive sectors.

Brief explanation:
TTTK.TO fell because Canadian tech was caught in a broader North American tech sell-off. Strong U.S. employment data reduced expectations for rate cuts and raised concern that the Fed may stay hawkish or even hike later, pressuring high-valuation growth stocks. The move was amplified by weakness in major Canadian tech names such as Shopify and BlackBerry, while the broader TSX also sold off sharply on Friday.

Bottom line: short-term move was mainly macro-driven multiple compression, not a sector-specific earnings collapse. A rebound would likely require lower bond yields, stabilization in U.S. tech/AI stocks, and recovery in Shopify/Constellation/Kinaxis-type leaders.

The TSX sell-off today appears to be driven mainly by broad risk-off selling, not one isolated Canadian factor.

1. Sharp index move: The S&P/TSX Composite was reported down 840.47 points to 34,412.590.
2. U.S. market weakness spilled into Canada: Yahoo reported that U.S. stocks were also down, which matters because TSX sentiment often follows North American risk appetite. [3]
3. Big Tech pressure: BNN Bloomberg noted that stocks slumped as Big Tech sank. Weakness in technology can pull down broader equity sentiment, including TSX tech and growth names. [2]
4. Stronger U.S. jobs data raised rate concerns: A strong May jobs report increased expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates, pressuring equity valuations. [2]
5. Gold weakness hurt TSX materials: Gold was down sharply, with August gold reported down US$113.90 to US$4,391.10/oz, likely weighing on gold miners and materials. [3]

Bottom line: Today’s TSX decline looks like a macro-driven sell-off: higher rate fears + U.S. equity weakness + falling gold.

Wall Street tumbled on Friday as semiconductors extended their selloff while a robust employment report fueled fears of a hawkish policy pivot from the Federal Reserve. It was a similar case for Bay Street, where the TSX was down about 2% in late trading after a strong domestic jobs report also had traders ramping up bets for rate hikes by the Bank of Canada by the end of this year.

All three major U.S. stock indexes were in negative territory, with an 8.1% ⁠plunge in ​chips, their steepest daily plunge since the “Liberation Day” tariff rout, dragging the tech-laden Nasdaq down 3.1%, its largest one-day percentage drop since October 10.

Over the last three days of selloffs, tech and chips have tumbled more than 7.5% and 9.1%, respectively.

The S&P 500 was poised to snap its nine-week run of Friday-to-Friday gains, its longest weekly winning streak since one that ended in December 2023.

The ​Nasdaq was also on course to log a weekly decline, but the blue-chip Dow ‌was set for a nominal gain on the week.

Tech shares declined for a third straight session, falling 4.6%. The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, according to the Labor Department, more than double analyst expectations, while the unemployment rate held firm at 4.3%. The robust report was double-edged: it provided reassurance of U.S. economic health, but all but killed any hopes of an interest rate cut from the Fed in the near future.

“It’s a good ‌report, and it ​shows that the labour market has certainly ‌survived its latest slowdown, and it’s another reason to believe that the Fed’s next move will be a hike in interest rates,” ​said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

Financial ⁠markets are pricing in a 42.8% likelihood of a rate hike at the conclusion of the Fed’s December ⁠meeting, up from 38.2% on Thursday and 26.1% one month ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Fading hopes for a near-term resolution to the Middle East war and reopening the ​Strait of Hormuz are stirring fears that energy price pressures could morph into wider, systemic inflation. Iran reaffirmed its support for Hezbollah and demanded that Israel withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon, further complicating efforts to secure a near-term peace deal that would include the resumption of traffic through the crucial strait. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has negotiated three truces, and while fighting has been greatly reduced, the two sides continue to trade airstrikes.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index, ⁠often dubbed the “fear index,” surged to a two-week high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 439.25 points, or 0.85%, to 51,122.68, the S&P 500 lost 138.07 points, or 1.82%, to 7,446.24 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 823.61 points, or 3.07%, to 26,007.35.

Among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, tech was down the most, while consumer staples led the percentage gainers.

Nvidia, the largest company by market value, lost 5.6%, while Intel, Micron, AMD and Broadcom slid between 6.8% and 10.5%. Lululemon Athletica slumped 8% after the athletic apparel maker cut its annual profit ⁠forecast and projected second-quarter earnings well below Wall Street estimates. Cooper Companies rose 7.6% ​after the contact lens maker beat estimates for second-quarter results.

Cryptocurrency firms Coinbase and Strategy dropped 9.5% and 11.2% as bitcoin tumbled 4.8%. S&P Global said ⁠it would not change the eligibility requirements for its major indices, which effectively rules out a swift entry for Elon Musk’s SpaceX to the benchmark S&P 500 after it ‌goes public in what would be the world’s biggest initial public offering.

S&P Dow Jones Indices will announce the results following its rebalancing after markets close. ​Chipmaker Marvell Technology, which boasts over $270 billion in valuation, is among the contenders to be added to the benchmark index.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.8-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 108 new highs and 196 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 1,155 stocks rose and 3,548 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3.07-to-1 ratio.

The S&P 500 posted ​14 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 76 new highs and 143 new lows.

Published Thu, Jun 4 202611:46 PM EDT

Oil prices fell on Friday, after Oman said operations at its Mina al Fahal port ‌were proceeding normally, following a Reuters report of disruption after an explosion.

Petroleum Development Oman said operations at Mina al Fahal port were unaffected, after three sources told Reuters that oil loading had been suspended following an explosion near its mooring berths.

Oman exports 800,000 ​to 900,000 barrels per day of crude from the terminal.

Brent crude futures were down 1.4% at $93.68 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $91.17 a barrel, down 2%.

The contracts rose earlier this week after fighting flared in the Middle East as U.S.-Iran war peace talks dragged on while traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil passes, remained ​limited.

“As hopes for an agreement between the U.S. and Iran were dashed once again, the price ​of Brent crude and European natural gas rose slightly this week,” Commerzbank analysts said on Friday.

However, Brent’s gains have ‌been capped ⁠by oil inventories lasting longer than expected, rerouted exports and falling demand, Commerzbank added.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected on Thursday a U.S.-brokered agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government to halt the fighting. Iran has made a ceasefire in Lebanon a condition for any peace deal with Washington.

U.S. President Donald Trump said ​on Thursday he believed ​progress was being made ⁠between Israel and Lebanon and that Lebanon deserved to have peace.

“Any optimism remains heavily clouded by a tangled web of headlines and counter-headlines,” IG market ​analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

OPEC is sticking to its oil demand growth ​forecast of ⁠1.2 million barrels per day for this year, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Thursday, despite the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian oil exports have fallen to their lowest level ⁠in ​six years mainly due to the U.S. naval blockade, according ​to shipping data, although weak demand in China has depressed prices for the oil.

The American job market continues to show surprising strength, shrugging off the high costs of the Iran war.

Employers added 172,000 jobs in May – roughly double what forecasters had expected – and the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.3 per cent.

The Labor Department reported Friday that job growth was down slightly last month from a revised 179,000 in April. The unemployment rate stayed at a low 4.3 per cent.

Hiring has bounced back this year from a miserable 2025, showing resilience in the face of economic uncertainty and painfully high energy prices caused by the Iran war.

The job gains last month were broad-based. Local governments added 55,000 workers, restaurants and bars 48,000, health care companies 35,000.

In another sign of job market strength, Labor Department revisions added a combined 93,000 jobs in March and April. Job growth averaged 188,000 a month from March through May, marking the best three months of hiring since early 2024.

“The hiring recession is over. American firms are hiring again,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The job rebound is happening in almost every industry … This is encouraging news for job seekers and for the U.S. economy. The labour market has stabilized and is showing early signs of a genuine rebound.’’

Despite the pickup in hiring, wage gains were modest, which could reassure the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve. Average hourly wages rose 0.3 per cent from April and 3.4 per cent from May, 2025, consistent with the Fed’s 2-per-cent inflation target.

Financial markets retreated after the report came in, likely reflecting expectations that the Fed won’t see a need to cut interest rates this year because hiring is so healthy.

Workers, jobseekers and employers have been stuck in an awkward “no-hire, no-fire’’ labour market. “Those who have jobs are clinging to them, while those without are left wanting,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm KPMG, wrote in a commentary ahead of the jobs report. “The result is a sense of being frozen or left in a sort of labour market purgatory.’’

Many young people are finding it tough to break into a stagnant job market. And workers who have been laid off struggle to get back to work. Nearly 28% of the unemployed in April had been jobless for more than six months, biggest share since December, 2021.

Seeing their prospects diminished, Americans are reluctant to leave their jobs and seek something better elsewhere. In April, the number of people who quit dropped to the lowest level since the frightening days of August, 2020, when the COVID-19 was running rampant.

Last year, employers added 9,700 jobs a month, fewest outside a recession since 2002.

This year, hiring has rebounded, averaging 114,000 new jobs a month from January through May. Big tax refunds – the product of President Donald Trump’s 2025 tax cuts – have given the economy a lift, offsetting the impact of higher energy prices since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February. But the refunds have mostly been pocketed, and gasoline prices remain above US$4 per gallon.

Healthcare companies have been driving much of hiring over the past year.

Martha Gimbel and Ryan Nunn of Yale University’s Budget Lab note that strong healthcare hiring isn’t surprising as Americans age and need more prescriptions and trips to the doctor. In fact, the industry’s job growth is in line with Labor Department predictions from a decade ago. “The question is not why healthcare has kept hiring–it is why other industries have not,’’ they wrote in a report published Tuesday, suggesting that one explanation might be an immigration crackdown that has reduced the supply of foreign-born workers.

At least the United States doesn’t need as many new jobs as it used to. The drop in immigrants and rising Baby Boomer retirements mean that fewer people are competing for work. As a result, the so-called break-even point – the number of new jobs required to keep the unemployment rate stable – has likely dropped to near zero, from the 155,000 new jobs per month that was typical two or three years ago, according to a Federal Reserve report.

Some analysts fear that artificial intelligence will wipe out entry-level jobs. But economists Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour of the tax and consulting firm EY-Parthenon wrote in a commentary Tuesday that AI “adoption is proving more gradual and costly than many anticipated. Firms are increasingly using AI to enhance productivity and control labour costs.’’ But AI, they wrote, has reduced hiring rather than “triggering broad-based layoffs.″

And a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York identified a different culprit for young people’s struggle to land jobs after college: the rise of remote work. Businesses, it seems, are reluctant to hire new grads for work-at-home jobs because it is harder to train and mentor them when they aren’t coming into the office.