Category: Uncategorized
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LIES & TRUTH. Media Deception. Did Canada’s 2Q GDP grow by 3.3% or 0.8% ????
DO NOT TRUST CANADA’S LIBERAL MEDIA!
It is not about POLITICS…Its about PROTECTING your hard EARNED savings!
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Key focus next week (Aug 31 – Sept 4, 2026)
Summary
- The Bank of Canada rate decision on September 2 is the week’s most important domestic event, particularly for banks, REITs, utilities and the Canadian dollar.
- Canadian and U.S. employment reports arrive September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, creating significant rate, currency and equity-market risk.
- U.S. ISM manufacturing and services data will test whether economic growth remains strong enough to support further Federal Reserve tightening.
- The Strait of Hormuz/Iran situation is the largest geopolitical risk for WTI, Canadian energy shares, transportation and inflation expectations.
- Markets will also position for Canada’s September 8 retaliatory tariffs and the September 6 OPEC+ meeting.
Scheduled Economic Events
Date Event Why it matters for the TSX Sept. 1 U.S. ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS job openings Tests industrial activity, inflation pressure and labour demand Sept. 2 U.S. ADP employment Early—but imperfect—signal for Friday’s payroll report Sept. 2 Bank of Canada rate decision, 9:45 a.m. ET Direct impact on CAD, banks, REITs, utilities and indebted consumers Sept. 3 U.S. ISM Services Important for inflation because services prices and wages remain persistent Sept. 4 Canada Labour Force Survey, 8:30 a.m. ET Changes expectations for the next BoC decision Sept. 4 U.S. nonfarm payrolls, 8:30 a.m. ET Key driver of U.S. yields, the dollar, gold and technology valuations Official schedules: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
1. Bank of Canada Decision—September 2
This is the week’s most important Canadian event.
If the BoC is dovish or cuts
Likely initial effects:
- Canadian dollar weakens.
- Bond yields decline.
- REITs, utilities and telecoms strengthen.
- Banks receive mixed effects: lower credit risk but pressure on lending margins.
- Gold’s Canadian-dollar price receives currency support.
If the BoC holds with a hawkish statement
Likely initial effects:
- Canadian dollar strengthens.
- Bond yields rise.
- REITs and utilities weaken.
- Rate-sensitive consumer shares face pressure.
- Banks could benefit from margins but face higher future credit risk.
Most exposed TSX groups
Sector Representative names Banks RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM, NA REITs CAR.UN, BEI.UN, REI.UN, CHP.UN Utilities FTS, EMA, CU Telecom BCE, T, RCI.B Rate-sensitive consumer CTC.A, ATZ, DOO 2. Canada and U.S. Employment—September 4
Both employment reports are released simultaneously, increasing the probability of a sharp CAD/USD move.
Strong U.S. employment
- Raises the probability of a September Fed increase.
- Pushes Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher.
- Negative for gold and high-valuation technology.
- Potentially positive for companies with substantial U.S. revenue.
- Could pressure SHOP, CSU and other long-duration growth shares.
Weak U.S. employment
- Reduces expectations for additional tightening.
- Supports bonds, gold, REITs and technology.
- May raise recession concerns if job weakness is severe.
Canadian employment
A weak Canadian report combined with strong U.S. payrolls would be the most negative combination for the Canadian dollar. A strong Canadian report could reduce expectations of further BoC easing.
3. U.S. ISM Surveys
Manufacturing—September 1
Key components:
- New orders.
- Employment.
- Production.
- Prices paid.
A strong headline accompanied by high prices would be inflationary and potentially negative for bonds, gold and technology valuations.
A strong report with easing prices would be more constructive for industrial and technology shares.
Services—September 3
Services prices are especially important because they are heavily influenced by wages. Persistent services inflation would reinforce Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message.
Geopolitical Focus
1. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—highest geopolitical priority
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards stated that Iran has “full control” over the Strait and that current restrictions will remain until U.S. military actions end. Reuters
Watch for:
- Vessel seizures or harassment.
- Shipping delays or rerouting.
- Iranian demands for transit payments.
- New U.S. sanctions.
- Insurance and tanker-rate increases.
- U.S. naval escorts or military action.
TSX implications
Development Likely sector effect Shipping disruption Positive for WTI and Canadian energy De-escalation Negative for oil’s geopolitical premium Higher tanker costs Negative for transportation and refiners Oil-driven inflation Negative for REITs, utilities and consumer shares Most sensitive names: CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE, MEG, TOU and ARX. Pipelines such as ENB and TRP would likely be less sensitive than oil producers.
What would falsify the risk?
- Verified normal vessel traffic.
- No seizures or material shipping delays.
- A credible U.S.–Iran agreement.
- Stable tanker-insurance costs.
- WTI failing to rise despite confirmed disruption.
2. Russia–Ukraine energy infrastructure
Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian refineries. Russia extended its diesel-export ban through September 30 after refinery outages and domestic shortages. Reuters
Potential effects:
- Higher global diesel and refining margins.
- Support for North American refiners.
- Greater European fuel-price inflation.
- Higher transportation and agricultural costs.
The effect on crude oil is mixed: refinery outages can reduce Russian demand for crude while export restrictions tighten refined-product supply.
3. U.S.–Canada Tariffs
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs take effect September 8, immediately after the Labour Day weekend. Markets will position during the week ending September 4.
The tariffs cover approximately 700 U.S. products, with rates of 15%, 25% and 50%. Categories include steel, aluminum, clothing, prepared foods, appliances, tools, electronics and furniture. Reuters
Companies and sectors to monitor
- Auto suppliers: MG, LNR, MRE
- Consumer retail: CTC.A
- Food retail: L, WN, MRU, EMP.A
- Industrials and transportation: CNR, CP, TFII
- Banks: indirect exposure through business credit and employment
- Materials: steel, aluminum, lumber and packaging exposure
The key market question is whether exemptions, remission procedures or renewed negotiations emerge before September 8.
4. OPEC+ Positioning
The core OPEC+ producers meet on September 6, just outside the requested week. Traders will begin positioning before Friday’s close.
OPEC+ previously approved an approximately 188,000-barrel-per-day increase for September. The market will focus on whether the group:
- Pauses additional increases.
- Signals further production growth.
- Addresses weak compliance.
- Responds to Iran and Russian supply disruptions.
Bull, Base and Bear Scenarios
Scenario Main developments Likely TSX impact Bull Dovish BoC; balanced jobs data; Hormuz remains operational; tariff exemptions emerge Broader participation led by financials, REITs, utilities and technology Base BoC holds; mixed employment; tariff uncertainty continues; oil remains volatile Range-bound TSX with rapid sector rotation Bear Hawkish BoC/Fed signals; weak Canadian jobs; Hormuz disruption; tariff escalation Consumer, auto and rate-sensitive sectors weaken; energy may outperform Actionable Takeaways
The priority order for the week is:
- Bank of Canada decision—September 2
- U.S. and Canadian jobs—September 4
- Iran/Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions
- U.S.–Canada tariff exemptions or escalation
- U.S. ISM prices and employment components
- OPEC+ positioning ahead of September 6
The main cross-market signals are CAD/USD, Canadian and U.S. two-year yields, WTI, gold and tariff-sensitive auto suppliers.
Educational analysis only. Scheduled events can change, and geopolitical developments are inherently unpredictable.
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Economic Calendar: Aug 31 – Sept 4
Monday August 31
China’s PMI
Japan’s retail sales and industrial production
Germany CPI and retail sales
U.K. markets closed
Tuesday September 1
Japan’s capital spending and manufacturing PMI
Euro zone CPI, manufacturing PMI and jobless rate
(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August.
(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for July.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing for August.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey for July.
Also: Canadian and U.S. auto sales for August.
Earnings include: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.; Dell Technologies Inc.; Medtronic PLC; Palo Alto Networks Inc.
Wednesday September 2
Japan’s consumer confidence
(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for August.
(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s rate decision with Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference to follow.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for July.
(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Beige Book is released.
Earnings include: Broadcom Inc.; Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.; Major Drilling Group International Inc.; Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc.; Snowflake Inc.
Thursday September 3
Japan’s and Euro zone’s services and composite PMI
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international merchandise trade for July.
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian labour productivity for Q2.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Aug. 29.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity for Q2. The Street is expecting an annualized rate rise of 1.4 per cent.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for July.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Revelio Public Labor Statistics for August.
(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for August.
(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services and Compsoite PMI for August.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for August.
Earnings include: BRP Inc.; Ciena Corp.; Enghouse Systems Ltd.; Lululemon Athletica Inc.; VersaBank; Zscaler Inc.
Friday September 4
Japan’s household spending
Germany’s factory orders
Euro zone’s retail sales
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for August. The Street is expecting an increase of 17,500 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining 6.4 per cent.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August. Consensus is a gain of 58,000 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining 4.1 per cent and average hourly wages gaining 3.1 per cent year-over-year.
(10 a.m. ET) Canada’s Ivey PMI for August.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for August.
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U.S. enters agreement with Venezuela to take control of 65 billion barrels of oil reserves, Trump says
President Donald Trump on Friday said the U.S. has entered an agreement with Venezuela to take control of 65 billion barrels of the South American country’s oil reserves.
Trump in a social media post announced the agreement he said was negotiated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez.
“The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!” Trump wrote.
The Venezuelan government’s press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The announcement of the deal comes nearly nine months after the U.S. military at Trump’s direction carried out an operation to capture Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro and spirit him to the United States to face federal narcoterrorism and drug trafficking charges.
Trump faces mounting pressure to address high gas prices as the war in Iran on Friday reached a six-month milestone with no conclusion in sight. The U.S. has tapped its strategic petroleum reserves, which in early August fell below 300 million barrels, down by more than 100 million barrels since the start of 2026.
The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has led to a dramatic slowdown of Gulf oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which about 20 per cent of the world petroleum passed through prior to the conflict.
The average price of gas in the U.S. stood at about US$4.09 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA. The average price was US$3.21 at the same time last year.
Trump in his social media post Friday evening alluded to the Venezuela deal being part of a private partnership. The White House did not immediately reply to a request for comment about the private sector partners involved in the deal, and details on how the arrangement would work were not provided.
Persuading big American oil companies to return the region could face headwinds given and decades of badly damaged infrastructure.
Days after the ouster of Maduro, Trump gathered oil executives at the White House and called on them to rush back into Venezuela. Executives expressed interest in the opportunity but there was also a measure of caution given their past experience in the country.
Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, the largest U.S. oil company, said at that moment he saw the country as “un-investable.”
But Trump has insisted that his administration has brought a measure of stability to Venezuela.
He has argued that Venezuela stole U.S. oil when former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s moved decades ago to nationalize hundreds of foreign-owned assets, including those owned by American oil companies.
Rodriguez, in one of her early moves after taking power, signed a law that opens the nation’s oil sector to privatization and reversed a bedrock tenet of the self-proclaimed socialist movement that had ruled the country for more than two decades.
Rubio said on X that the agreement would usher in US$100-billion in private investment into Venezuela and lead to lower gas prices in the United States.
“This deal is a huge win for both the American and Venezuelan people,” Rubio posted.
Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 303 billion barrels of crude oil in the ground. That’s about 17 per cent of the world’s supply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Unlike other parts of the world, where geologists have to search for untapped oil, the reserves under Venezuela’s soil are largely mapped and known, experts say. But because of dilapidated infrastructure, the country only produces about 1 per cent of the world’s oil.
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GOLD
Summary
- Gold declined approximately 3.0%–3.3% over the five trading sessions ended August 28, 2026, depending on the spot-price fixing and closing time used.
- U.S. gold futures fell 3.25% to US$4,478.10 per ounce, their largest weekly decline since June.
- The main catalyst was Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, which increased expectations of a September interest-rate increase.
- Rising short-term Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar reduced gold’s appeal.
- Profit-taking intensified because gold had reached a three-month high of approximately US$4,681 earlier in the week.
Five-day movement
Measure Approximate result Monday spot-gold close US$4,639/oz Monday intraday high US$4,681/oz Friday late spot price Approximately US$4,470/oz September futures settlement US$4,478.10/oz Five-day decline Approximately 3.0%–3.3% Different gold benchmarks—spot, LBMA fixing and COMEX futures—close at different times, explaining the small variation.
Why gold declined
1. Federal Reserve turned more hawkish
Warsh said the Fed still had “more work to do” unless inflation was clearly moving toward its 2% target. Markets increased the probability of a September rate increase to approximately 62%. Reuters
Higher interest rates hurt gold because gold pays no interest. When Treasury yields rise, holding bonds becomes relatively more attractive.
2. U.S. Treasury yields increased
Short-term U.S. yields rose after Warsh’s speech. This increased the opportunity cost of owning gold and triggered selling in precious metals.
3. U.S. dollar strengthened
The U.S. dollar rose as investors anticipated higher U.S. rates. Because gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies and commonly pressures demand.
4. Profit-taking after a strong rally
Gold reached its highest level since May on Monday. The rally had been supported by:
- A weaker U.S. dollar.
- Iran-related geopolitical concerns.
- U.S.–Canada trade tensions.
- Treasury bond-buyback proposals.
- Safe-haven buying.
Once the Fed outlook changed, traders locked in gains after three consecutive positive weeks.
5. Safe-haven demand was insufficient
Trade tensions and geopolitical risks continued to support gold fundamentally. However, during this five-day period, the interest-rate and dollar effects outweighed safe-haven demand.
Canadian-dollar impact
The Canadian dollar weakened to approximately C$1.39 per US$1. A weaker Canadian dollar cushioned the decline for Canadian gold holders because:
Therefore, gold’s percentage decline in Canadian dollars was likely smaller than its roughly 3.2% U.S.-dollar decline. The exact result depends on the exchange-rate fixing used.
Short-term scenarios
Scenario Key development Possible gold response Bull Softer inflation or renewed geopolitical escalation Recovery toward US$4,600–US$4,680 Base Rate uncertainty persists Consolidation around US$4,400–US$4,550 Bear September rate increase becomes highly probable; dollar strengthens further Decline toward US$4,250–US$4,400 These are analytical ranges, not forecasts or price targets.
What would disprove the negative thesis?
- U.S. inflation weakens materially.
- Treasury yields reverse lower.
- The U.S. dollar declines.
- The Fed reduces the probability of a September increase.
- Gold recovers above approximately US$4,600, followed by a break above US$4,681.
Actionable Takeaways
The gold decline was primarily a monetary-policy correction, not the disappearance of geopolitical or fiscal risks. Near-term direction will depend on U.S. inflation, Treasury yields, the dollar and the probability of a September Fed rate increase.
Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.
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Information Tech Capped Index ($TTTK) & XIT
Summary
- The S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index (TTTK) gained approximately 2.8%, using XIT as the investable tracking proxy.
- Shopify rose 3.3% and was an important positive contributor because it represented approximately 26% of XIT.
- CGI gained 0.7%, recovering late in the week after temporary weakness.
- Kinaxis declined 0.6% despite a major customer announcement and positive RBC coverage; a strong Thursday–Friday recovery erased most of its earlier loss.
- Technology stocks remained volatile ahead of major U.S. technology earnings and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary.
Five-day comparison
Security Aug. 21 close Aug. 28 close C$ change Five-day move XIT—TTTK proxy C$76.18 C$78.34 +C$2.16 +2.84% Shopify C$205.63 C$212.42 +C$6.79 +3.30% Kinaxis C$179.75 C$178.68 −C$1.07 −0.60% CGI C$103.14 C$103.85 +C$0.71 +0.69% Price data: XIT, SHOP, KXS and GIB.A.
Data gap: Complete daily TTTK index data were not consistently available through the public feed. XIT seeks to replicate the index and is used as the closest investable proxy.
Daily performance
Date XIT SHOP KXS GIB.A Aug. 24 +0.47% +0.97% +0.24% +0.34% Aug. 25 +1.23% +2.51% −2.60% −0.56% Aug. 26 −0.59% −2.04% −2.06% −1.32% Aug. 27 +2.67% +2.48% +3.17% +1.65% Aug. 28 −0.94% −0.59% +0.76% +0.60% TTTK/XIT: why the index rose 2.8%
XIT’s approximate August 26 weights were:
Company Approximate weight Shopify 26.1% Constellation Software 25.3% Celestica 23.0% CGI 9.4% Kinaxis 2.4% Three companies—Shopify, Constellation Software and Celestica—represented roughly three-quarters of the index. Therefore, TTTK’s gain cannot be explained solely by the four companies requested.
Key index drivers were:
- Shopify’s 3.3% advance.
- Continued enthusiasm for software and AI-related companies.
- Thursday’s broad technology rebound.
- Strength in other large constituents, particularly Celestica and Constellation Software.
- Partial profit-taking Friday after Thursday’s 2.7% index-proxy gain.
Shopify: +3.3%
Main drivers
1. Strong Q2 momentum remained supportive
Shopify’s Q2 revenue rose 34% YoY to US$3.58 billion, while gross merchandise volume reached approximately US$115.6 billion. The company also provided an upbeat third-quarter outlook. These results continued to support investor expectations for strong e-commerce and merchant-services growth.
2. Positive analyst sentiment
Positive analyst commentary on Shopify’s sales momentum, AI-commerce capabilities and operating leverage supported the shares early in the week.
3. High volatility after the earnings rally
Shopify had already risen sharply after its August 5 results. Consequently, daily movements were large:
- August 25: +2.51%
- August 26: −2.04%
- August 27: +2.48%
The pattern indicates changing risk appetite and profit-taking rather than a fundamental reversal.
4. Currency effect
SHOP.TO reflects both Shopify’s U.S.-listed share price and the CAD/USD exchange rate. A weaker Canadian dollar can raise the Toronto-listed price even when the U.S. share price is unchanged.
What would weaken the positive interpretation?
- A break below approximately C$203–C$205.
- Slower merchant or payment-volume growth.
- Weaker operating margins.
- Evidence that AI-based commerce platforms are reducing Shopify’s competitive position.
Kinaxis: −0.6%
Main drivers
1. Early-week profit-taking
Kinaxis fell 2.6% Tuesday and 2.1% Wednesday after reaching approximately C$180. The magnitude of the decline was greater than the broader technology sector’s movement, indicating company-specific profit-taking or valuation sensitivity.
2. New customer announcement was not financially quantified
On August 25, Kinaxis announced that Ansaldo Energia selected its platform for global supply-chain planning. The contract supports demand for Kinaxis’s software, but no contract value or revenue contribution was disclosed. Kinaxis announcement list
Without financial details, the announcement was insufficient to prevent the initial decline.
3. RBC support drove a recovery
RBC maintained an Outperform rating and a C$210 target on August 26. The shares subsequently recovered:
- August 27: +3.17%
- August 28: +0.76%
The rebound reduced the weekly decline from approximately 4.4% at Wednesday’s close to only 0.6% by Friday.
What would weaken the recovery thesis?
- A decline below approximately C$171–C$172.
- Slowing SaaS revenue growth.
- Lower renewal rates or bookings.
- AI competition reducing the value of Kinaxis’s planning platform.
CGI: +0.7%
Main drivers
1. Stable operating model
CGI’s government and large-enterprise contracts provide recurring revenue and relatively stable cash flow. This helped limit its five-day volatility compared with Shopify and Kinaxis.
2. AI debate remains unresolved
Investors continue to hold two opposing views:
- Positive: CGI can benefit from helping customers implement AI and modernize IT systems.
- Negative: Generative AI could reduce demand for labour-intensive consulting and application-management services.
The resulting uncertainty explains why CGI has traded at a lower valuation than higher-growth software companies.
3. Late-week recovery
CGI fell 1.3% Wednesday but recovered 1.7% Thursday and 0.6% Friday. No material company announcement fully explains the reversal; it appears primarily related to broader technology-sector buying and valuation support.
What would weaken the positive interpretation?
- A break below approximately C$100–C$101.
- Slower bookings or backlog conversion.
- Margin pressure from wage costs.
- Evidence that AI is reducing consulting revenue faster than CGI can replace it with new services.
Scenarios
Scenario TTTK/XIT SHOP KXS GIB.A Bull C$80–C$82 C$218–C$225 C$185–C$192 C$107–C$111 Base C$76–C$80 C$203–C$218 C$171–C$185 C$100–C$107 Bear Below C$76 Below C$203 Below C$171 Below C$100 These are analytical ranges, not price targets.
Actionable Takeaways
TTTK’s five-day gain was concentrated in its largest holdings. Shopify strengthened the index, Kinaxis finished slightly lower despite a late rebound, and CGI was broadly stable. The major risk is concentration: Shopify, Constellation Software and Celestica collectively determine most of the index’s direction.
XIT explained
XIT is the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index ETF. It trades on the TSX in Canadian dollars and seeks to track the S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index (TTTK).
Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.
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George Weston Limited (WN.TO):
Summary
- George Weston (WN.TO) rose from C$97.28 on August 21 to C$98.20 on August 28, a five-session gain of C$0.92, or 0.95%.
- Most of the gain occurred Monday, when investors moved toward defensive grocery, pharmacy and real-estate exposure after U.S.–Canada trade tensions escalated.
- The shares then consolidated as tariff-related food-cost concerns offset the defensive appeal.
- WN outperformed Loblaw, which declined 0.18%, but there was no material company-specific announcement explaining the difference.
- Strong Q2 adjusted earnings, ongoing share repurchases and Choice Properties exposure provided underlying support.
Five-day movement
Date Close Daily move Main interpretation Aug. 21 C$97.28 Starting price — Aug. 24 C$98.83 +1.59% Defensive buying following trade escalation Aug. 25 C$98.34 −0.50% Partial profit-taking and tariff uncertainty Aug. 26 C$98.54 +0.20% Stable grocery and real-estate exposure Aug. 27 C$97.70 −0.85% Consumer-staples selling and sector rotation Aug. 28 C$98.20 +0.51% Recovery as broader markets weakened Five-session change +C$0.92 +0.95% Key Drivers
1. Defensive business mix
George Weston is principally a holding company with exposure to:
- Loblaw: groceries, pharmacies, healthcare and discount retail.
- Choice Properties REIT: grocery-anchored retail, industrial and residential real estate.
Both businesses are relatively defensive. Consumers continue buying food and prescriptions during economic uncertainty, while Choice Properties receives contractual rental income from a tenant base heavily anchored by Loblaw.
That defensive profile supported WN when trade tensions increased on August 24.
2. Loblaw provided stability
Loblaw finished the five-day period almost unchanged at −0.18%. Its stable performance limited downside for George Weston.
Loblaw’s underlying support came from:
- Essential grocery and pharmacy demand.
- Discount banners such as No Frills and Maxi.
- Private-label products.
- Q2 revenue growth of 4.1%.
- Adjusted EPS growth of 11.9%.
However, Canadian retaliatory tariffs could raise the cost of selected foods, toiletries and household goods. This prevented a stronger rally.
3. Choice Properties diversified the exposure
Choice Properties gives WN a second earnings stream outside grocery retail. Its properties are generally supported by long-term leases and necessity-based tenants.
This diversification likely helped WN outperform Loblaw slightly. However, the exact five-day contribution cannot be isolated from public closing-price data because WN’s daily movement also reflects its holding-company discount and internal share transactions.
4. Strong Q2 adjusted earnings
George Weston’s most recent results showed:
Q2 2026 measure Result YoY change Revenue C$15.20 billion +4.1% Adjusted EBITDA C$1.94 billion +6.1% Adjusted net earnings C$436 million +9.8% Adjusted diluted EPS C$1.14 +12.9% Reported net earnings C$133 million −48.4% The reported earnings decline was mainly caused by non-cash fair-value adjustments related to Choice Properties, not weaker underlying operations. The market appears to have focused more heavily on adjusted earnings.
5. Share repurchases supported per-share value
George Weston repurchased and cancelled 3.1 million shares for C$300 million during Q2. Fewer outstanding shares contributed approximately C$0.03 to adjusted EPS growth.
Buybacks do not guarantee a rising share price, but they can support per-share earnings and reduce available share supply.
Valuation Logic
WN’s value is largely determined by:
The shares may trade below the estimated value of these holdings because investors apply a holding-company discount for structural complexity, taxes and corporate expenses.
WN’s five-day outperformance suggests investors valued its combination of grocery, pharmacy and real-estate exposure during heightened uncertainty.
Risks
- Higher food and merchandise costs from retaliatory tariffs.
- Political or regulatory pressure concerning grocery prices.
- Weaker Choice Properties valuations if bond yields rise.
- A decline in Loblaw’s share price.
- Changes in the holding-company discount.
- Fair-value adjustments creating volatility in reported earnings.
Scenarios
Scenario Development Indicative range Bull Loblaw margins remain stable and bond yields ease C$100–C$104 Base Stable grocery earnings with continued tariff uncertainty C$96–C$101 Bear Food-cost pressure combines with higher property yields C$91–C$96 These are analytical ranges, not price targets.
What would disprove the positive thesis?
- Loblaw experiences weaker comparable sales or declining margins.
- Choice Properties’ occupancy or rental growth deteriorates.
- Higher bond yields reduce REIT valuations.
- WN breaks below approximately C$96–C$97 on heavy volume.
- The holding-company discount widens despite stable underlying assets.
Actionable Takeaways
WN.TO’s five-day gain reflected its defensive combination of grocery, pharmacy and real estate, rather than a new company announcement. The principal items to track are Loblaw’s retail margins, tariff-related food costs, Choice Properties’ operating results and Canadian bond yields.
Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.