Category: Uncategorized

Monday March 23

Euro area consumer confidence

10 am ET: U.S. construction spending for January

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Tuesday March 24

Japan CPI and PMIs

Euro area manufacturing PMIs

815 am ET: U.S. ADP employment report

830 am ET: Canada manufacturing sales for February

830 am ET: U.S. productivity and unit labour costs for the fourth quarter

945 am ET: U.S. S&P global PMIs for March

Manitoba budget

Earnings include: Dollarama, Ag Growth International, Aimia, GameStop, KB Home

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Wednesday March 25

Germany business confidence. UK CPI

830 am ET: U.S. current account deficit for the fourth quarter

830 am ET: U.S. import prices for February

Earnings include: Chewy, goeasy, Pizza Pizza

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Thursday March 26

Consumer confidence readings released across Europe

830 am ET: Canada payroll survey for January

830 am ET: U.S. initial jobless claims

12 pm ET: BoC senior deputy governor Rogers speaks in Brandon, Manitoba

G7 foreign ministers meeting near Paris, through Friday

Earnings include: BRP

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Friday March 27

ECB 3-year CPI expectations

830 am ET: Canada wholesale trade for February

10 am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March

Ottawa’s budget balance for January

Earnings include: Carnival

Executive Summary

• Gold is ~flat to slightly up (~+1% to +2%) over the past 10 days, not down
• Range: roughly US$2,150 → US$2,200–2,220/oz (tight band)
• Primary driver: consolidation after a strong prior rally
• Offsetting forces: rate pressure (negative) vs safe-haven + central bank demand (positive)
• Net result: sideways, low-volatility digestion phase

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Key Drivers (last 10 days)

1) Consolidation after prior rally (dominant)

• Gold had a strong run into early March
• Last 10 days:
  • No follow-through buying
  • No aggressive selling

Interpretation:

• Market is absorbing gains, not reversing trend

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2) Interest rates (headwind, but not dominant)

• US yields remain elevated
• Normally bearish for gold

Observed impact:

• Prevents breakout above ~US$2,220
• But not strong enough to trigger selloff

---

3) USD strength (moderate pressure)

• USD firm over the period
• Caps upside

Effect:

• Gold stalls rather than declines

---

4) Safe-haven + central bank demand (support)

• Ongoing geopolitical tension
• Structural central bank buying

Impact:

• Creates strong floor around ~US$2,150–2,170

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5) Positioning equilibrium

• No forced liquidation
• No aggressive inflows

Result:

• Balanced market → range-bound behavior

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Data & Evidence (approximate 10-day range)

Metric	Observation
Start	~US$2,150
Low	~US$2,140–2,150
High	~US$2,220
Current	~US$2,200
Net move	~+1% to +2%
Volatility	Low (~1% daily)

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Valuation / Macro Logic

Current driver hierarchy:

1. Real yields (cap upside)
2. USD strength (cap upside)
3. Safe-haven demand (support)
4. Central bank buying (structural floor)

→ Net effect: equilibrium → sideways price action

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Risks (short-term)

• Upside risk:
  • Yield decline
  • USD weakening
• Downside risk:
  • Further rate repricing
  • ETF outflows

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Scenarios (next 2–4 weeks)

Bull

• Break > US$2,220
• Target: US$2,300

Base

• Range: US$2,150–2,220 (most likely)

Bear

• Break < US$2,150
• Target: US$2,050–2,100

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Actionable Takeaways

• No trend over last 10 days — pure consolidation
• Gold is:
  • Holding gains
  • Not reacting strongly to rates
• Key signal:
  • Tight range → next move likely directional breakout
• Watch:
  • US 10Y real yields
  • USD index (DXY)

Executive Summary

• KXS.TO is down ~-4% to -5% over the last 10 trading days (≈C$143 → C$137)
• Peak spike (+6.2% on Mar 9) followed by steady decline
• Trend: sharp rally → systematic de-risking → stabilization
• No major company-specific news in this window → move is positioning + macro
• Now consolidating ~C$135–138 support zone

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Key Drivers (last 10 days)

1) Failed breakout after spike (primary driver)

• Mar 9: +6.22% surge (C$135 → C$144)
• Immediately followed by:
  • Mar 11: -2.87%
  • Mar 12: -2.24%

Interpretation:

• Breakout attempt failed → buyers exhausted → reversal

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2) Multi-day distribution (trend shift)

• Sequence:
  • C$143 → 139 → 135 over ~4 sessions
• Pattern:
  • Lower highs + consistent selling

Signal:

• Institutional profit-taking after short-term rally

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3) Stabilization phase (last 4 sessions)

• Mar 17–20:
  • C$135.4 → 137.7
  • Daily moves: +0.0% to +0.8%

Interpretation:

• Selling pressure absorbed
• Transition from downtrend → consolidation

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4) Macro / tech sensitivity

• KXS = mid-cap SaaS → rate-sensitive valuation
• TSX volatility + rate concerns:
  • pressure on high-multiple tech

Effect:

• Amplifies downside after failed breakout

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5) No incremental catalyst

• No earnings / guidance update in this 10-day window
• Prior catalyst (early March):
  • Revenue beat drove initial rally

Conclusion:

• Move = giveback of prior gains

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Data & Evidence

Date	Close (C$)	Change
Mar 9	143.64	+6.22%
Mar 10	143.16	-0.33%
Mar 11	139.05	-2.87%
Mar 12	135.94	-2.24%
Mar 13	135.02	-0.68%
Mar 16	135.43	+0.30%
Mar 17	135.49	+0.04%
Mar 18	136.38	+0.66%
Mar 19	136.55	+0.12%
Mar 20	137.72	+0.86%

Net: ~-4% from peak; -5–6% from high to trough

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Valuation Logic (short-term)

• SaaS multiple sensitive to:
  • growth durability
  • discount rate
• After rally:
  • valuation stretched short-term → mean reversion

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Risks (driving the move)

• High-multiple compression (rates)
• Short-term overbought condition after spike
• Lack of near-term catalyst
• Tech sector volatility

---

Scenarios (next 2–4 weeks)

Bull

• Break > C$140
• Target: C$145

Base

• Range: C$133–140

Bear

• Break < C$133
• Target: C$128–130

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Actionable Takeaways

• This is a classic “spike → fade → stabilize” pattern
• Not a fundamental deterioration
• Key level:
  • C$135 = support (holding so far)
• Stock currently:
  • neutral, waiting for next catalyst

Executive Summary

• SHOP.TO declined ~-9% over the last 10 trading days (≈C$176 → C$160)
• Three consecutive down days (Mar 18–20) drove most of the move (~-8%)
• Largest move: -4.5% (Mar 20)
• Driver mix: macro (rates/TSX selloff) + high-multiple compression
• This is a trend breakdown (lower highs + lower lows), not sideways consolidation

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Key Drivers (last 10 days)

1) Clear downtrend (price structure change)

• Sequence:
  • Mar 9: 181 → Mar 20: 160 (-11%) peak-to-trough
• Pattern:
  • Lower highs: 181 → 176 → 175 → 170
  • Lower lows: 175 → 171 → 168 → 160

Interpretation:
Momentum shifted negative → sellers in control

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2) Late-week acceleration (dominant move)

• Mar 18: -2.9%
• Mar 19: -1.1%
• Mar 20: -4.5%

3-day move: ~-8%

Signal:

• Institutional de-risking, not noise

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3) Macro pressure (critical)

• TSX:
  • Down ~3.8% weekly amid inflation + rate concerns
• Central banks signaling:
  • higher-for-longer rates

Impact on Shopify:

• High-duration growth stock → most sensitive to rates
• Result: multiple compression

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4) High valuation sensitivity

• SHOP trades at very high earnings multiple (triple-digit P/E range)
• Implication:
  • Small macro shifts → large price moves

Observed:

• Daily volatility 2–5% repeatedly (normal for SHOP)

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5) No company-specific catalyst

• No earnings release in this 10-day window
• No major news

Conclusion:

• Move is macro + positioning, not fundamentals

---

Data & Evidence

Date	Close (C$)	Change
Mar 10	175.78	-3.11%
Mar 11	175.97	+0.11%
Mar 12	171.94	-2.29%
Mar 13	168.83	-1.81%
Mar 16	173.21	+2.59%
Mar 17	175.14	+1.11%
Mar 18	170.06	-2.90%
Mar 19	168.26	-1.06%
Mar 20	160.64	-4.53%

Net: ~-9% over 10 days

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Valuation Logic (short-term)

• Growth intact (no new data change)
• Market adjustment:
  • Discount rate ↑ → valuation ↓

Translation:

• Price decline = multiple compression, not earnings downgrade

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Risks (what drove the move)

• Rate sensitivity (primary)
• High valuation (amplifier)
• Tech sector rotation
• Lack of near-term catalyst

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Scenarios (next 2–4 weeks)

Bull

• Reclaim > C$170
• Trigger: tech rebound / rate easing expectations
• Target: C$175–180

Base

• Range: C$155–170
• Volatility remains elevated

Bear

• Break < C$155
• Trigger: further macro deterioration
• Target: C$145

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Actionable Takeaways

• This is not consolidation — it is a confirmed short-term downtrend
• Primary driver = macro (rates) + valuation compression
• Key level:
  • C$165 now resistance (was support)
• Shopify remains:
  • fundamentally strong, but macro-driven short term

Executive Summary

• L.TO (Loblaw) is ~flat to slightly down (~-1% to -2%) over ~10 days
• Price anchored around C$61–63 range
• Primary driver: post-earnings digestion after late-Feb revenue miss
• No sharp moves → low-volatility defensive behavior
• Stock holding key support (~C$61–62)

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Key Drivers (last 10 days)

1) Post-earnings overhang (dominant)

• Q4 (Feb 25):
  • Revenue miss (C$16.38B vs ~C$16.77B expected)
  • EPS slightly beat
• Interpretation:
  • Growth concerns (consumer slowdown) → caps upside

Effect on last 10 days:

• No collapse, but persistent mild selling pressure

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2) Consumer slowdown narrative

• Evidence:
  • “Consumers are more cautious and price-sensitive”
• Impact:
  • Grocery volume stable, but mix shifts to discount banners
• Market takeaway:
  • Lower-margin growth → valuation ceiling

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3) Minor negative news flow (low impact)

• Data breach (Mar 10):
  • Limited to basic customer info
  • No expected financial impact

Interpretation:

• Not material, but contributes to sentiment softness

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4) Technical range-bound behavior

• Support: ~C$61–62
• Resistance: ~C$63–64
• Recent action:
  • Small daily moves (±1–2%)
  • No trend breakout

Signal:

• Balanced buyers/sellers → consolidation

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5) Defensive sector dynamics

• Loblaw = low beta (~0.4)
• In current macro:
  • Stable but no multiple expansion catalyst

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Data & Evidence

Metric	Observation
Current range	~C$61–63
10-day move	~-1% to -2%
Volatility	Low (1–2% daily)
Trend	Sideways / slight drift lower
Monthly trend	~-8.6%

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Valuation Logic (short-term)

• P/E ~29–30x
• Market view:
  • Premium defensive → justified by stability
  • But:
    • Revenue softness limits upside re-rating

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Risks (driving the move)

• Consumer trading down → margin pressure
• Revenue growth deceleration
• Input cost inflation (food supply chain)
• Fully valued defensive multiple

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Scenarios (next 2–4 weeks)

Bull

• Break > C$63–64
• Trigger: margin resilience / analyst upgrades
• Target: C$65–67

Base

• Range: C$61–64 (most likely)

Bear

• Break < C$61
• Trigger: consumer slowdown narrative intensifies
• Target: C$58–59

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Actionable Takeaways

• No event-driven move → this is consolidation after earnings miss
• Stock behaving as expected:
  • defensive + low volatility + range-bound
• Key signal:
  • Holding support despite negative narrative
• Watch:
  • same-store sales (food vs discount mix)
  • margin trajectory next earnings

Executive Summary

• WN.TO (George Weston) is ~flat to slightly down (~-1% to -2%) over 10 days
• Price moved ~C$97 → ~C$95–96, with mild volatility
• Primary driver: post-earnings digestion after early-March results miss
• No sharp selloff → controlled consolidation, not distribution
• Stock holding above key support (~C$94–95)

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Key Drivers (last 10 days)

1) Post-earnings digestion (dominant)

• Q4 results released Mar 4:
  • Revenue + EPS missed expectations
• Impact:
  • No immediate collapse
  • But caps upside → sideways/down drift

Interpretation:
Market repricing modestly lower after disappointment, but confidence intact

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2) Mild downward drift (no catalyst)

• Typical daily moves:
  • ~-1.0% (Mar 18)
• Pattern:
  • Small red days, no capitulation

Signal:

• Sellers present, but not aggressive

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3) Technical pullback from pivot high

• Pivot high: ~Mar 16
• Since then:
  • ~-2.3% pullback

Interpretation:

• Short-term trend rolled over after rally
• Normal mean reversion

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4) Defensive sector rotation dynamics

• WN = grocery + REIT exposure (Loblaw + Choice Properties)
• In current macro:
  • Rates stable/high → limits multiple expansion
• Outcome:
  • Defensive, but no re-rating catalyst

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5) Range-bound structure

• Support: ~C$94–95
• Resistance: ~C$97–99

Stock oscillating within band → consolidation phase

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Data & Evidence (recent moves)

Metric	Observation
10-day move	~-1% to -2%
Recent price	~C$95–97
1-month trend	~-3.6%
Volatility	Low (~1–2% daily)
Pattern	Drift lower → stabilize

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Valuation Logic (short-term)

• P/E: ~35x → premium defensive multiple
• After earnings miss:
  • Market not expanding multiple further
• Result:
  • Price stalls despite stable fundamentals

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Risks (driving the move)

• Earnings credibility (miss vs expectations)
• High valuation vs growth (~9% forecast EPS growth)
• Rate sensitivity (REIT exposure via Choice Properties)
• Lack of near-term catalysts

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Scenarios (next 2–4 weeks)

Bull

• Break > C$97–98
• Target: C$100+

Base

• Range: C$94–98 (most likely)

Bear

• Break < C$94
• Target: C$90–92

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Actionable Takeaways

• No event-driven selloff — this is controlled post-earnings consolidation
• Market reaction = mild de-rating, not structural concern
• Key signal:
  • Holding support despite earnings miss
• Watch:
  • Loblaw same-store sales
  • real estate (Choice Properties) sensitivity to rates

Executive Summary

• SAP.TO (Saputo) is ~flat over 10 days (~-1% to 0%), but trend is mildly down then stabilizing
• Range: C$43.16 → C$41.98 → C$42.55 (dip then partial recovery)
• No single event-driven move; drift + minor selling pressure
• Weakness concentrated mid-period (Mar 11–19)
• Low volatility, no capitulation → typical defensive consolidation

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Key Drivers (last 10 days)

1) Gradual drift lower (no catalyst)

• Stock declined from ~C$43.1 → ~C$42.0 (-2.7%) over several sessions
• No earnings release or major news

Interpretation:

• Passive selling / lack of buyers, not fundamental change

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2) Mid-period weakness (Mar 11–19)

• Mar 11: -2.03%
• Mar 18: -1.57%
• Mar 19: -1.50%

Pattern:

• Multiple small down days → institutional distribution, not panic

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3) Late stabilization / bounce

• Mar 20: +1.36% recovery
• Price rebounded off ~C$41.5–42 support

Signal:

• Buyers active at lower band

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4) Sector-level pressure (staples)

• Consumer staples:
  • Facing input cost pressure (dairy, logistics)
  • Limited pricing upside

Impact:

• Keeps upside capped → sideways price action

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5) Technical range-bound behavior

• Resistance: ~C$43.2–43.5
• Support: ~C$41.5–42.0

Stock oscillating inside this band → no trend breakout

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Data & Evidence

Date	Close (C$)	Change
Mar 10	42.95	-0.49%
Mar 11	42.08	-2.03%
Mar 12	41.90	-0.43%
Mar 13	42.48	+1.38%
Mar 16	43.10	+1.46%
Mar 17	43.30	+0.46%
Mar 18	42.62	-1.57%
Mar 19	41.98	-1.50%
Mar 20	42.55	+1.36%

Net: Slight decline, then recovery → range-bound

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Valuation Logic (short-term)

• Staples trade on:
  • stability + dividend + margin visibility
• Current issue:
  • no earnings catalyst → no multiple expansion

Result:

• Price anchored in tight band

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Risks (driving the move)

• Input cost inflation (milk, energy)
• Margin compression risk
• Lack of growth catalysts
• Defensive rotation fatigue (investors shifting elsewhere short-term)

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Scenarios (next 2–4 weeks)

Bull

• Break > C$43.5
• Target: C$44–45

Base

• Range: C$41.5–43.5 (most likely)

Bear

• Break < C$41.5
• Target: C$40

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Actionable Takeaways

• No event-driven move — this is passive consolidation
• Stock behaving like a low-beta defensive
• Key signal:
  • Holding support despite selling pressure
• Watch:
  • margin commentary (next earnings)
  • input cost trends

Executive Summary

• ATD.TO fell ~-8% to -9% over the last 10 trading days (C$84 → ~C$76)
• Single largest move: -5.1% on Mar 18 following earnings/revenue miss
• Downtrend accelerated post-earnings + macro selloff (rates/inflation concerns)
• Price broke short-term support (~C$80) → technical weakness
• Move is event-driven (earnings) + macro overlay, not structural change

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Key Drivers (last 10 days)

1) Earnings-driven selloff (primary)

• Mar 18: -5.15% daily drop
• Trigger:
  • Revenue miss vs expectations

Interpretation:
Top-line disappointment → multiple compression despite stable business model

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2) Post-earnings follow-through selling

• Mar 19: -2.7%
• Mar 20: additional decline
• Total 3-day move: ~-8%

Signal:

• Institutional de-risking, not one-day reaction

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3) Macro pressure (TSX-wide)

• TSX dropped ~-1.9% same day on rate/inflation concerns
• Drivers:
  • Higher-for-longer rates narrative
  • Energy-driven inflation risk

Impact on ATD:

• Defensive multiple compresses when rates stay higher

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4) Breakdown of technical support

• Pre-event range: ~C$82–84
• Post-event:
  • Broke C$80 support
  • New range: C$75–78

Implication:

• Momentum shifted negative
• Sellers in control short-term

---

5) No offsetting positive catalyst

• No:
  • Guidance upgrade
  • Margin surprise
  • Capital return news

→ No reason to step in after miss

---

Data & Evidence

Date	Close (C$)	Change
Mar 16	84.25	+1.97%
Mar 17	82.96	-1.53%
Mar 18	78.69	-5.15%
Mar 19	76.53	-2.74%
Mar 20	76.17	-0.47%

Net move: ~-9% in 5 sessions

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Valuation Logic (short-term)

• Pre-drop: priced for stable growth + execution premium
• Post-drop:
  • Market repricing to reflect:
    • weaker revenue visibility
    • macro uncertainty

Result:

• Lower multiple, not earnings collapse

---

Risks (driving the move)

• Revenue growth sensitivity (fuel + traffic)
• Margin variability (fuel spreads)
• Higher rates → lower defensive multiples
• Earnings credibility (near-term)

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Scenarios (next 2–4 weeks)

Bull

• Reclaim > C$80
• Driven by:
  • earnings reassessment
• Target: C$82–84

Base

• Range: C$75–80
• Consolidation after sharp move

Bear

• Break < C$75
• Driven by:
  • continued macro pressure
• Target: C$72–73

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Actionable Takeaways

• This is an earnings + macro-driven reset, not a structural breakdown
• The critical shift:
  • from “stable premium compounder” → “needs confirmation”
• Key level:
  • C$80 now resistance
• Next catalyst:
  • margin + same-store sales trajectory next quarter

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. says its net earnings attributable to shareholders came in at US$757.2 million for the third quarter, up from US$641.4 million in the same period last year. 

On a per diluted share basis, the company reported net earnings attributable to shareholders of 82 cents US for the quarter, compared with 68 cents US during the prior year quarter. 

The Laval, Que.-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says its revenue amounted to US$21.8 billion during the period ended Feb. 1, up year over year from US$20.9 billion.

Couche-Tard says its total merchandise and service revenues reached US$5.8 billion during the quarter, rising 8.7 per cent from US$5.3 billion.   

Chief financial officer Filipe Da Silva says the company delivered one of its best quarterly results in over two years, validating its new approach.   

In February, Couche-Tard unveiled a new corporate strategy focused on strengthening its core platforms and pursuing targeted investment opportunities. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 17, 2026.