Executive Summary

• Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. volatility recently has been driven by:
  • valuation compression
  • global acquisition uncertainty
  • fuel margin swings
  • defensive-sector rotation
• The stock has shown unusually large daily moves for a traditionally defensive consumer staples company
• Investors are reassessing growth expectations after years of premium performance
• Volatility increased despite relatively stable underlying operations
• Market sensitivity to macro headlines and M&A speculation has risen materially

---

Main Causes of ATD.TO Share Price Volatility

1) Seven & i / 7-Eleven Acquisition Speculation (largest driver)

The biggest volatility driver has been ongoing market speculation regarding:

• potential acquisition activity involving Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd.
• strategic implications for Couche-Tard

Markets have repeatedly repriced:

• probability of a transaction
• financing requirements
• regulatory complexity
• integration risks

This creates large swings because investors debate:

“Would a transformational acquisition create value or dilute returns?”

Key concerns:

• debt financing size
• antitrust scrutiny
• execution risk
• return on invested capital

---

2) Valuation Compression

ATD had traded at a premium multiple due to:

• strong execution history
• global growth
• fuel + convenience resilience
• stable cash flow

Recently investors began compressing the valuation multiple as:

• interest rates stayed elevated
• growth expectations normalized
• defensive stocks rotated unevenly

This caused:

• larger swings than fundamentals alone justify

---

3) Fuel Margin Volatility

ATD earnings are highly sensitive to:

• fuel margins
• gasoline demand
• crude oil price swings

Recent oil volatility from Middle East tensions created uncertainty around:

• retail fuel profitability
• consumer driving patterns
• convenience-store traffic

Importantly:

• higher oil prices are not always positive for ATD
• margin spread matters more than headline crude prices

---

4) Defensive Rotation Became Inconsistent

Consumer staples initially benefited from:

• defensive positioning
• economic uncertainty

But recently markets rotated aggressively between:

• energy
• tech
• defensives
• cyclicals

ATD became caught between:

• “defensive staple”
  and
• “growth acquisition story”

That increases volatility.

---

5) Investor Expectations Were Extremely High

This is critical.

ATD has been one of the TSX’s best long-term compounders:

• strong ROIC
• strong acquisitions
• disciplined management
• resilient earnings

When expectations become extremely high:

• even good results can trigger selling
• investors quickly lock in profits

This creates:

“high-quality stock volatility”

rather than:

“business distress volatility.”

---

Important Context (Why volatility does NOT equal deterioration)

Operationally, ATD still retains:

• strong cash generation
• defensive convenience demand
• global diversification
• disciplined cost management

Core business fundamentals remain relatively stable compared with:

• discretionary retail
• industrial cyclicals
• highly leveraged companies

So current volatility appears more related to:

• market positioning
• valuation debate
• acquisition uncertainty

than:

• operational collapse

---

Data & Evidence

Driver	Impact on Volatility
Seven & i speculation	Very High
Fuel margin uncertainty	High
Oil price swings	Moderate/High
Valuation compression	High
Defensive sector rotation	Moderate
Core operations	Still stable

---

Valuation Logic

Recent ATD volatility is mainly:

• expectations repricing
• M&A uncertainty
• multiple compression

Not mainly:

• collapsing earnings
• liquidity stress
• consumer demand collapse

---

Risks Going Forward

Risk	Potential Impact
Large acquisition execution risk	Major volatility
Fuel margin compression	Earnings pressure
Consumer slowdown	Traffic softness
Rising rates	Lower valuation multiple
Regulatory challenges	M&A uncertainty

---

Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios

Bull

• Acquisition uncertainty clears positively
• Fuel margins remain healthy
• Stock rerates higher

Base

• Sideways volatile trading
• Stable operational execution

Bear

• Large acquisition viewed negatively
• Fuel margins weaken
• Multiple compresses further

---

What Would Reduce Volatility

• Clear strategic guidance
• Resolution of acquisition speculation
• Stable fuel margins
• Consistent earnings growth without surprises

---

Actionable Takeaways

• Current volatility in Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. is primarily:
  • valuation-driven
  • acquisition-driven
  • sentiment-driven
• The market is debating: whether ATD remains a premium compounder
  or
  becomes a slower-growth defensive retailer
• Core business fundamentals still appear comparatively resilient relative to most TSX retailers.

Executive Summary

• The S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index materially outperformed the broader TSX during recent volatility
• Staples benefited from:
  • defensive rotation
  • stable cash-flow expectations
  • consumer trade-down behaviour
• Key leaders included:
  • Loblaw Companies Limited
  • Empire Company Limited
  • Metro Inc.
• The sector acted as a “defensive shelter” while discretionary and industrial names weakened
• Performance has been steady rather than explosive — classic low-volatility leadership

---

TSX Consumer Staples Capped Index (TTCS)

Metric	Approx. Recent Trend
Sector Bias	Defensive / Positive
Volatility	Lower than TSX
Relative Performance	Outperformed broader TSX during risk-off days
Main Drivers	Grocery stability + defensive rotation

S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index

---

Main Components of TTCS

Company	Weighting Influence
Loblaw Companies Limited	Very High
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.	Very High
Metro Inc.	High
Empire Company Limited	Moderate
George Weston Limited	Moderate

---

Why TTCS Has Been Relatively Strong

1) Defensive Rotation (largest driver)

Investors rotated into staples because:

• economic growth uncertainty increased
• oil prices rose sharply
• geopolitical risk increased

Staples historically outperform when markets become defensive because:

• food demand is stable
• revenues are predictable
• margins are less cyclical

---

2) Canadian Consumer Trade-Down

Higher living costs caused consumers to:

• spend less on discretionary goods
• focus more on essentials
• shop discount/value channels

This benefited:

• grocery chains
• discount food retail
• convenience retail

Especially:

• Loblaw Companies Limited
• Metro Inc.

---

3) Stable Earnings Visibility

Compared with cyclical sectors:

• staples earnings are more predictable

Investors rewarded:

• strong free cash flow
• stable dividends
• pricing power

This became important as:

• TSX discretionary stocks weakened
• industrial earnings became less certain

---

4) Oil Prices Helped Convenience Retail

Higher fuel prices can actually help:

• fuel-margin operators
• convenience chains

That supported:

• Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

Although ATD has recently shown volatility tied to valuation and acquisition concerns, the defensive nature of the business remains supportive.

---

Relative Performance vs Other TSX Sectors

Sector	Recent Relative Strength
Energy	Strongest
Consumer Staples (TTCS)	Strong
Materials	Moderate
Financials	Mixed
Industrials	Weak/Mixed
Consumer Discretionary (TTCD)	Weaker
Technology	Volatile

---

Key Characteristics of TTCS

Feature	Interpretation
Lower beta	Less volatile
Dividend support	Defensive yield
Stable demand	Recession-resistant
Slower growth	Lower upside in bull markets
Strong pricing power	Helps offset inflation

---

Valuation Logic

Recent strength in TTCS was driven mainly by:

• defensive positioning
• earnings stability
• cash-flow visibility

Not driven by:

• rapid revenue acceleration
• speculative growth
• AI/technology enthusiasm

---

Risks to TTCS

Risk	Potential Impact
Consumer weakness deepens	Margin pressure
Food inflation slows sharply	Revenue normalization
Interest rates remain high	Valuation pressure
Rotation back into cyclicals	Relative underperformance
Regulatory/grocery pricing scrutiny	Margin concerns

---

Bull / Base / Bear Outlook

Bull

• Economic uncertainty persists
• Staples continue outperforming
• Investors favor defensives

Base

• Sector remains stable but underwhelming
• Modest dividend-driven returns

Bear

• Strong economic rebound
• Capital rotates into cyclicals/tech
• Staples lag materially

---

What Would Disprove the Defensive Thesis

• Staples underperform during market volatility
• Grocery margins compress materially
• Consumers shift back aggressively toward discretionary spending
• Economic growth accelerates sharply

---

Actionable Takeaways

• TTCS is behaving exactly as expected in a:
  • higher-volatility
  • inflation-sensitive
  • uncertain macro environment
• Leadership is being driven by:
  • earnings stability
  • predictable cash flow
  • defensive investor positioning
• Watch:
  • grocery inflation trends
  • consumer spending patterns
  • fuel margins
  • Bank of Canada policy direction

• Canadian Tire Corporation Limited declined over the past ~10 trading days primarily due to:
  • concerns about weakening Canadian consumer spending
  • margin pressure risk
  • broader retail-sector caution
  • profit-taking after a strong earlier rally
• The decline appears to be more of a valuation reset / sentiment compression than a fundamental collapse
• Rising oil prices and inflation concerns increased fears of weaker discretionary spending
• No major company-specific negative shock was announced during the period
• Investors are now waiting for May 14 Q1 earnings for confirmation of consumer trends

---

Main Reasons for CTC.A.TO Share Price Decline

1) Consumer Spending Concerns (largest driver)

Markets became increasingly concerned that:

• higher gasoline prices
• inflation pressure
• elevated borrowing costs

could weaken discretionary retail spending in Canada.

This concern intensified after weaker retail commentary from North American retailers including Loblaw and Dollarama.

Key issue:

Canadian Tire is heavily exposed to discretionary consumer categories:

• sporting goods
• automotive
• home products
• seasonal spending

When investors fear consumer weakness, retailers like Canadian Tire usually derate quickly.

---

2) Oil Price Spike Hurt Consumer Sentiment

Oil prices surged above US$100 during the Iran-related geopolitical escalation:

• WTI briefly moved above US$106/bbl

Market interpretation:

• higher fuel costs reduce disposable income
• discretionary retail spending weakens
• Canadian consumer becomes more defensive

This particularly pressured:

• consumer discretionary stocks
• retail cyclicals
• apparel/home goods names

---

3) Sector Rotation Out of Consumer Discretionary

During the selloff:

• capital rotated into:
  • energy
  • gold
  • defensive dividend sectors

while consumer discretionary weakened.

Reuters specifically noted:

• TSX Consumer Discretionary sector fell 2.1% on May 4.

That sector weakness affected:

• Canadian Tire Corporation Limited
• Aritzia Inc.
• broader retail names

---

4) Profit-Taking After Earlier Rally

CTC.A had rallied materially earlier in 2026:

• moved toward 52-week highs in April

After strong gains, investors likely:

• locked in profits
• reduced cyclical exposure
• rotated toward energy beneficiaries

This type of decline is common after:

• rapid multiple expansion
• seasonal retail optimism fades

---

5) Earnings Uncertainty Ahead of May 14

Canadian Tire is scheduled to report Q1 earnings on May 14.

Markets are cautious because investors want clarity on:

• same-store sales
• consumer spending trends
• inventory levels
• margin sustainability
• loyalty program performance

Retail stocks often weaken before earnings when:

• macro uncertainty rises
• consumer outlook deteriorates

---

Important Context (Why decline was limited)

Despite weakness:

• no major balance-sheet issue emerged
• no dividend concern surfaced
• no major earnings warning was issued

In fact, Canadian Tire still has:

• strong operating cash flow
• large real estate/assets base
• strong Canadian brand positioning

So the market reaction appears more like:

“consumer caution + valuation compression”
rather than:
“structural business deterioration.”

---

Data & Evidence

Factor	Impact on Stock
Higher oil prices	Negative
Consumer spending fears	Negative
Retail-sector caution	Negative
Profit-taking	Moderate negative
Upcoming earnings uncertainty	Negative
Balance sheet / liquidity	Stable

---

Valuation Logic

The decline was mainly driven by:

• lower forward consumer expectations
• multiple compression
• cyclical de-risking

Not driven by:

• insolvency concerns
• collapsing sales
• dividend risk
• major operational failure

---

Risks Going Forward

Risk	Potential Impact
Weak Q1 earnings	Further downside
Lower same-store sales	Retail derating
Higher oil prices	Consumer spending pressure
Rising credit losses	Weak consumer demand
Inventory buildup	Margin pressure

---

Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios

Bull

• Q1 earnings beat expectations
• Consumer spending stabilizes
• Shares recover toward prior highs

Base

• Mixed retail environment
• Sideways consolidation

Bear

• Consumer slowdown accelerates
• Margins weaken
• Stock continues derating

---

What Would Disprove the Bearish Thesis

• Strong same-store sales growth
• Margin resilience despite inflation
• Strong loyalty/customer traffic trends
• Better-than-feared discretionary spending

---

Actionable Takeaways

• The recent weakness in Canadian Tire Corporation Limited is primarily:
  • macro-driven
  • consumer-sentiment driven
  • valuation-driven
• Markets are currently pricing in:
  • softer Canadian consumer demand
  • earnings caution
• May 14 earnings will likely determine the next major move.

Linamar Corp. says its net earnings reached $221.4 million during the first quarter, up from $177.7 million the previous year.

That amounted to diluted net earnings per share of $3.71, rising from $2.94 during the prior year quarter. 

The Guelph, Ont.-based auto parts manufacturer says its sales totalled $2.94 billion during the three months ended March 31, rising year-over-year from $2.53 billion. 

The company says its products continue to be compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade, meaning most of them are tariff-free into the U.S.

However, Linamar says new tariffs that took effect in April will have more of an effect on its industrial segment but are not affecting its overall business outlook.   

Last month, Linamar announced it was maintaining its full-year guidance for 2026 following recent changes to the U.S. tariff regime that imposed a 25 per cent levy on the full value of products made substantially of steel, aluminum or copper.  

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 6, 2026.    

Executive Summary

• Magna International Inc. rose over the past ~10 trading days primarily due to:
  • stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings
  • margin improvement
  • cash-flow strength
  • optimism around restructuring/divestitures
• The move was fundamentally earnings-driven, not speculative
• Auto supplier sentiment improved broadly as tariff fears stabilized somewhat
• Investors focused more on Magna’s adjusted profitability than the headline GAAP loss
• The stock also benefited from rotation into cyclical/value industrial names

---

Main Reasons for MG.TO Share Price Increase

1) Q1 2026 Earnings Beat (largest driver)

Magna reported:

• Revenue: US$10.4B (+3% YoY)
• Adjusted EPS: US$1.38 vs US$1.01 expected
• Adjusted EBIT margin improved to 5.4% from 3.5%

This was materially better than market expectations.

Key takeaway:

• Investors focused on operational improvement and margin recovery.

---

2) Strong Margin Expansion

The market liked:

• operational efficiencies
• cost controls
• improved profitability despite lower global auto production

Adjusted EBIT rose about 58% YoY.

That matters because Magna had previously been criticized for:

• weak margins
• EV transition costs
• slower vehicle production

---

3) Positive Cash Flow Surprise

Free cash flow improved sharply:

• from approximately negative US$313M
• to positive US$372M

That reduced concerns around:

• balance-sheet pressure
• cyclical auto slowdown risk

---

4) Asset Sales / Restructuring Optimism

Magna announced divestitures of:

• Lighting business
• Rooftop Systems business

Combined sales ≈ US$1.1B businesses.

Investors interpreted this as:

• simplification of business mix
• focus on higher-margin operations
• improved capital allocation

---

5) Auto Sector Sentiment Improved

Broader auto-parts sentiment stabilized due to:

• resilient North American production
• ongoing ADAS demand
• improving Chinese EV contract outlook

Magna specifically highlighted:

• advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS)
• continued parts demand resilience

---

Important Caveat (Why the rally was limited)

The rally was restrained because Magna also:

• lowered full-year sales guidance slightly
• reported a GAAP net loss tied to divestiture charges
• still faces tariff and EV-market uncertainty

So the market reaction was:

“better-than-feared,” not “everything is fixed.”

---

Data & Evidence

Metric	Result	Market Interpretation
Revenue	US$10.4B	Above estimates
Adjusted EPS	US$1.38	Significant beat
EBIT Margin	5.4%	Strong improvement
Free Cash Flow	+US$372M	Major positive
Sales Guidance	Slightly lowered	Mild negative
Asset Sales	US$1.1B businesses	Strategic positive

---

Valuation Logic

The stock increase was driven mainly by:

• earnings revisions upward
• reduced bankruptcy/cash-flow concerns
• operational confidence recovery

Not driven by:

• EV hype
• broad auto-sector euphoria
• speculative momentum

---

Risks Going Forward

Risk	Impact
Global auto slowdown	Revenue pressure
EV demand uncertainty	Program delays
Tariffs	Margin compression
North American production cuts	Lower volumes
China competition	Pricing pressure

---

Bull / Base /Bear Scenarios

Bull

• Margins continue improving
• ADAS demand accelerates
• Stock rerates toward prior highs

Base

• Sideways recovery
• Investors wait for consistent execution

Bear

• Auto production weakens
• Tariffs increase costs
• Recent gains reverse

---

What Would Disprove Current Bullish Thesis

• Margin expansion reverses
• Free cash flow weakens materially
• Auto OEM production cuts accelerate
• Divestitures fail to improve returns

---

Actionable Takeaways

• The recent move in Magna International Inc. was primarily an earnings-quality rally
• Investors rewarded:
  • higher margins
  • stronger cash flow
  • operational discipline
• The stock remains cyclical and highly tied to:
  • North American auto production
  • EV adoption trends
  • tariff policy

Executive Summary

• S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index gained approximately +2.9% for the week ending May 8, 2026
• Sector materially outperformed the broader S&P/TSX Composite Index (+0.6%)
• Performance was driven mainly by:
  • Retail earnings strength
  • Consumer resilience
  • Select apparel and discount retail names
• Major contributors included:
  • Aritzia Inc.
  • Dollarama Inc.
  • Restaurant Brands International Inc.
• Volatility remained elevated due to oil-price pressure on consumers and concerns around economic slowing

---

TTCD Performance — Week Ending May 8, 2026

Metric	Result
Weekly Performance	~+2.9%
May 1 Close	~395.96
May 8 Close	~399.05
Weekly Range	387.83 – 401.34
Weekly Trend	Positive / volatile

S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index

Based on historical data:

• May 1 close: ~395.96
• May 8 close: ~399.05
• Intraworkweek rebound from May 4 weakness drove positive weekly performance

---

Daily Performance Snapshot

Date	Close	Daily Move
May 8	399.05	+1.10%
May 7	394.70	-0.19%
May 6	395.46	+0.39%
May 5	393.92	+1.57%
May 4	387.83	-2.05%

---

Key Drivers

1) Strong Retail Earnings

The biggest catalyst was earnings:

• Aritzia Inc. rose ~4.5% after beating estimates
• Discount and branded retail continued outperforming

This helped offset broader market volatility.

---

2) Consumer Spending Resilience

Despite:

• higher oil prices
• elevated borrowing costs
• weaker employment data

Canadian discretionary spending held up better than expected.

Strong areas:

• discount retail
• apparel
• restaurants

---

3) Rate Expectations Stabilized

Canadian employment weakness reduced concerns about additional rate hikes:

• Lower yields supported consumer-sensitive equities
• Improved sentiment toward retail and discretionary spending names

---

4) Shopify Volatility Limited Gains

The sector could have performed even better, but:

• Shopify Inc. fell sharply (~15.6% on May 5) after soft guidance

That weighed heavily on:

• TSX technology
• broader growth sentiment

Importantly:

• SHOP is not a core TTCD constituent, but sentiment spillover impacted consumer-growth names.

---

Major TTCD Constituents (Representative)

Company	Theme
Dollarama Inc.	Defensive consumer
Restaurant Brands International Inc.	QSR resilience
Magna International Inc.	Auto cyclicals
Aritzia Inc.	Apparel momentum
Gildan Activewear Inc.	Consumer apparel

---

Valuation Logic

The weekly move was driven mainly by:

• Earnings revisions
• Lower-rate expectations
• Rotation into selective consumer names

Not driven by:

• Broad economic optimism
• Strong wage growth
• Broad consumer acceleration

---

Risks

Risk	Impact on TTCD
Higher oil prices	Reduces consumer spending power
Weak employment trend	Retail slowdown risk
Sticky inflation	Margin compression
Consumer credit deterioration	Discretionary demand risk
Weak housing market	Consumer confidence pressure

---

Bull / Base / Bear Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)

Bull

• Rates stabilize
• Consumers remain resilient
• TTCD retests highs near 405–410

Base

• Sideways volatile trading
• Defensive retail outperforms cyclical retail

Bear

• Consumer spending weakens materially
• TTCD retraces toward 380–385

---

What Would Disprove Current Strength

• Discount retailers begin missing earnings
• Consumer credit losses rise materially
• Oil prices remain elevated while retail margins weaken
• Wage growth slows further

---

Actionable Takeaways

• TTCD outperformed the TSX this week largely due to:
  • apparel earnings
  • defensive retail
  • falling rate fears
• Leadership remains selective, not broad
• Watch:
  • Canadian employment data
  • oil prices
  • consumer spending trends
  • retail earnings revisions

Aritzia Inc.’s ATZ-T +2.89%increase
latest quarter brought a 35 per cent jump in profit and a revenue increase that was almost just as high.

The Vancouver-based retailer says its fourth quarter net income reached $134.3-million, up from $99.6-million a year earlier.

That result for the period ended March 1 translated to $1.12 per diluted share, up from 84 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, Aritzia’s net income amounted to $138.2-million, rising from $98-million during the fourth quarter of last year.

The company’s net revenue increased by about 33 per cent to $1.19-billion over the same period.

The result comes as Aritzia continues to open more boutiques and push an app it recently launched.

Enbridge Inc. ENB-T +0.22%increase reported first-quarter adjusted profit on Friday that surpassed analysts’ expectations as robust performance in its gas transmission and utility businesses offset softer results in its liquids pipelines segment.

The pipeline operator is benefiting from rising demand for natural gas, utility infrastructure and power supply for data centers, allowing it to generate steady growth despite geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility.

The company said it added projects worth about $2-billion to its secured growth backlog during the quarter, including the Cone onshore wind project in Texas and expansions at the Tres Palacios and Dawn Hub storage facilities, as well as its Vector Pipeline system.

Its secured growth backlog now stands at about $40-billion and is expected to be funded through its annual growth capital investment capacity of $10-billion to $11-billion.

Enbridge acquired three utilities from U.S.-based Dominion Energy last year, expanding its gas distribution business.

Adjusted core profit from gas distribution and storage business rose 6.8 per cent to $1.71-billion in the reported quarter, while gas transmission earnings increased 6.6 per cent to $1.57-billion.

In its gas transmission segment, earnings benefited from stronger contracting across U.S. pipeline assets and higher revenues from the Aitken Creek and BC Pipeline systems.

The gas distribution business was supported by higher regulated rates in Ontario, Utah and North Carolina, which partly helped cushion weaker liquids pipeline results, reflecting lower Mainline contributions.

Enbridge’s Mainline system, which moves nearly half of the crude in the United States, saw quarterly adjusted core profit fall 13.2 per cent to $1.45-billion.

The Calgary, Alberta-based company posted adjusted profit of 98 cents per share for the three months ended March 31, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 94 Canadian cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.

U.S. employment increased more than expected in ⁠April while ​the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 per cent, pointing to labor market resilience and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged for some time.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 185,000 ​advance in March, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor ‌Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 62,000 jobs after a previously reported 178,000 rebound in March.

Estimates ranged from a loss of 15,000 jobs to a gain of 150,000 positions. Economists said it was ‌too early ​for the effects of the ‌U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to show. The conflict has raised gasoline and diesel ​prices as well as the cost of other commodities ⁠that are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

Payrolls have been ⁠choppy since mid-2025, alternating between gains and losses. Economists have attributed the swings to an adjustment to ​the birth-and-death model, which the government uses to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month. Some said a large turnover in firms created was making it hard for the BLS to estimate job creation associated with new ⁠companies.

Weather, strikes and government job cuts as well as big changes to the labor force as President Donald Trump’s administration cracks down on illegal immigration have also added to volatility, they said. Economists recommended looking at the three-month moving average of payrolls.

The labour market has been stuck in what economists and policymakers have called ⁠a “slow hire, slow fire” zone, a paralysis blamed on ​trade and immigration policies. Lower immigration and an aging population meant the economy needed ⁠to create between zero and 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, economists ‌estimated.

With the so-called breakeven level of job growth much lower than in prior years, ​they did not expect a surge in the unemployment rate, even if employment gains slowed considerably.

The report bolstered financial market views that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged into 2027. The U.S. central bank last week ​left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50-per-cent-3.75-per-cent range, citing inflation worries.