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Shopify Inc. SHOP-T -3.65%decrease reported higher revenue, income and profit for its third quarter, and projected fourth-quarter earnings that exceed analyst expectations for the busy holiday season.

In earnings Tuesday, the Canadian e-commerce giant posted revenue of US$2.8-billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, a 32-per-cent increase from the year before and above analyst consensus; gross profit of US$1.3-billion, up 24 per cent; and operating income of US$343-million, up 21 per cent.

Gross merchandise value (GMV) – the value of the products sold over its platforms – was up 32 per cent, higher than consensus, though analysts had reduced their expectations on concerns about effects from tariffs.

International GMV was up 41 per cent in the quarter, as the company continues to focus on growing market share outside of North America.

Monthly recurring revenue from subscriptions was up 10 per cent.

For the current quarter, which includes Black Friday and the typically busy December shopping period, Shopify’s executives expect growth in the mid to high twenties, higher than analyst consensus of 23.4 per cent, and gross profit growth in the low to mid twenties, also above expectations.

The company is continuing to focus on scaling its artificial intelligence offerings for merchants, growing its payment processing businesses and expanding its large business segment.

Citi analyst Tyler Radke called the results and revenue growth “impressive” and said in a note to investors Tuesday morning that while shares were down slightly pre-market on broader risk concerns, he expects the company’s shares will outperform peers “on the back of accelerating growth and continued resilience.”

The company recently launched its checkout integration with OpenAI’s GhatGPT, which the firm says will create new opportunities for merchants to reach customers online.

Shopify chief operating officer is leaving the company to join Opendoor Technologies

Shopify had several leadership changes in the quarter. In early Oct., chief revenue officer Bobby Morrison announced his departure on LinkedIn. That followed chief operating officer Kaz Nejatian’s exit in mid-September. The company appointed general counsel Jess Hertz to fill the COO role.

In a report following the departures, Oppenheimer & Co Inc. analyst Ken Wong said he does not view the executive changes as a signal of internal disarray, but rather as a sign of the organization’s recent success.

“We have seen additional VP-level departures since the Morrison exit that suggests a broader internal repositioning could be taking place,” he said.

Canada and the Philippines, both staunch critics of China’s increasingly coercive actions in the disputed South China Sea, signed a key defence agreement on Sunday to boost combat drills and expand security alliances to deter aggression, officials said.

Canada and other Western nations have been bolstering their military presence in the Indo-Pacific to help promote the rule of law and expand trade and investment in the region. The strategy dovetails with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ’s efforts to build defence ties with other countries to help the Philippines’ underfunded military face a militarily superior China in the disputed waters.

There was no immediate comment from China, which has accused the Philippines of being a “troublemaker” and a “saboteur of regional stability” following joint patrols and combat drills with the United States and other countries in the South China Sea.

Beijing claims the waterway, a major trade route, virtually in its entirety, despite a 2016 arbitration ruling that invalidated those claims based on a 1982 U.N. convention.

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China has dismissed the ruling and has employed powerful water cannons and dangerous blocking maneuvers against Philippine coast guard and other vessels, resulting in collisions and injuries to crew. Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have been involved in the long-simmering territorial disputes.

Philippines says China wants to expand its territory

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. signed the Status of Visiting Forces Agreement with his Canadian counterpart, David McGuinty, after a closed-door meeting in Manila on Sunday.

McGuinty said the agreement will boost joint military training, information-sharing and cooperation in addressing emergencies, including responding to natural disasters.

Teodoro told reporters the agreement will be key to fostering a rules-based international order in a region threatened by China’s aggression. “Who is hegemonic? Who wants to expand their territory in the world? China,” Teodoro said.

The Philippines signed the first such defence pact with the U.S. in 1998, followed by a similar accord with Australia nine years later. The agreement with Canada was the third signed under Marcos, after similar ones with Japan and New Zealand.

Talks are ongoing with France and Singapore for similar agreements. Efforts are also underway to launch negotiations with Britain and possibly with Germany and India, Teodoro and other officials said.

Oil and gas giant Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. CNQ-T +0.09%increase has boosted its production forecast for the year after it gained full ownership of a major oil sands mine through an asset-swap deal with Shell Canada Ltd. SHEL-N -0.44%decrease

The deal announced in January saw Canadian Natural trade 10 per cent of its working interest in the Scotford Upgrader and Quest Carbon Capture project for Shell’s remaining 10 per cent interest in the Albian mine north of Fort McMurray, Alta. 

Canadian Natural says the deal, which has now closed, adds about 31,000 barrels per day of bitumen to its portfolio.

That brings its 2025 production guidance to between 1.56 million and 1.58 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. 

The added output represents production growth of about 15 per cent over 2024 production levels. 

Canadian Natural says its operating budget for the year remains unchanged at about $5.9-billion. 

“As a result of our strong execution and capital discipline, we have been able to maintain targeted capital levels in 2025 on a larger asset base following opportunistic acquisitions in the year, excellent results by our teams,” said Canadian Natural president Scott Stauth. 

The company reports its third-quarter results on Thursday. 

Glencore GLNCY -2.31%decrease is planning to close its Horne smelter, Canada’s largest copper metal-producing operation, due to environmental issues and the millions of dollars needed to upgrade the facility, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.

The London-listed miner does not disclose copper metal production figures for its Canadian operation, but industry sources estimate annual output at more than 300,000 metric tons.

The closure of Horne would reinforce forecasts of global shortages partly due to supply disruptions including accidents at mines in Indonesia and Chile.

Expectations of deficits in coming years have buoyed copper prices, which hit a record US$11,200 a ton on Oct. 29.

“Glencore is not currently considering the closure of the Horne smelter or CCR,” a Glencore spokesperson said in response to a Reuters request for comment.

Its Canadian copper operations include Horne and the Canadian Copper Refinery. Both are located in the province of Quebec. The two sites employ more than 1,000 workers, according to industry sources.

“Smelters currently face enormous pressures around the world, including significant financial, regulatory and operational pressure,” Glencore’s spokesperson said.

“Horne and CCR are not exempt from this though both assets play an important role in the supply of critical raw materials for the North American market and abroad.”

G7 pact pledges funds for Quebec, Ontario critical minerals projects

While both plants will be closed, as yet there is no date, according to the two sources, who said the operations require potentially more than US$200-million ($281-million) to modernize.

“We are continuing to implement our emissions reduction plan by advancing studies and other works,” Glencore’s spokesperson said.

“We are also working closely with all stakeholders to map a path forward that preserves Horne’s ongoing smelting operations in Canada. This includes a clear and predictable regulatory framework necessary to secure the appropriate investment.”

The commodity trader is facing a lawsuit in Quebec’s Superior Court from local people for Horne’s arsenic emissions. The court said damages back to 2020 can be claimed.

Long-term exposure to arsenic can cause cancer.

Glencore’s plans to close Horne and CCR are not related to the case, but to the costs of making the operation environmentally safe, according to the two sources.

“Glencore Canada acknowledges the Superior Court’s decision to authorize the class action lawsuit,” Glencore’s spokesperson said in response to a Reuters request for comment on the lawsuit.

“As this is an ongoing legal matter that we are contesting in court, we won’t be commenting publicly on the proceedings at this time. We are confident that the Horne Smelter’s operations are safe for the public,” Glencore said.

Teck seeks to ease investor concerns around copper joint venture with Anglo as shareholder vote looms

Founded in 1927, the Horne smelter pioneered the recycling of electronic scrap in 1980.

Glencore processes around 100,000 metric tons of discarded electronics annually to produce copper, nickel, cobalt, gold and silver, according to its website.

Horne also processes concentrate to make copper anode which is turned into cathode by CCR. Much of Glencore’s copper metal production in Canada goes to the United States, which is a net importer.

Canada exported more than 150,000 tons of copper to the United States last year, accounting for some 17 per cent of U.S. imports and ranking it second behind Chile, which accounted for 70 per cent.

Profits at custom smelters – those that buy copper concentrate on the open market – have dropped this year due to pressure on treatment charges from global shortages of concentrate due to mine disruptions.

Miners pay treatment and refining charges to smelters to process their concentrate into refined metal.

Treatment and refining charges have been negative on the spot market since last year meaning smelters have to pay miners for concentrate instead of being paid to process the feedstock into metal.

Glencore sold its Pasar copper refinery in the Philippines, a custom smelter, earlier this year.

Consolidated Results

• Revenue decreased $23.1 million or 2% in the third quarter compared to the similar period last year, on lower revenue in the Equipment Group down 4%, partially offset by higher revenue at CIMCO up 22%. The Equipment Group continued to deliver against the healthy order backlog, in addition to revenues from the acquired business. Higher rental and product support revenue were offset by lower equipment sales in mining. CIMCO’s growth reflects good package revenue and higher product support revenue in Canada and the US.
• Revenue increased $66.7 million (up 2%) to $3.8 billion for the year–to–date period. Equipment Group revenues were relatively unchanged as revenue from the acquired business along with higher rental and product support activity was largely offset by lower equipment sales in mining, versus a comparatively strong quarter last year for mining equipment deliveries. CIMCO revenue increased 15% compared to 2024, on good package and product support activity.
• In the quarter, a property was sold resulting in a pre-tax gain of $13.7 million. In addition, the acquisition of AVL resulted in pre-tax earnings of $6.3 million in the third quarter ($2.2 million YTD) net of non-cash expenses related to purchase price accounting of $27 million ($57 million YTD). Both of these items are reported in the Equipment Group and impact comparability of results in both the quarter and year-to-date.
• Operating income⁽¹⁾ increased 8% in the quarter. Excluding the gain on property disposition, operating income increased $0.9 million or 1% compared to Q3 2024, as higher gross margins were partially offset by the lower revenue and higher expenses.
• Operating income was relatively unchanged at $458.8 million for the year–to–date period. Excluding the gain on property disposition, operating income decreased $13.9 million or 3% compared to the similar period last year, reflecting higher expenses, partially offset by improved gross margins. Operating income was 12.1% of revenue compared to 12.4% in the similar period last year.
• Net interest expense increased by $3.9 million in the quarter and $17.6 million in the first nine months of the year reflecting interest expense on higher borrowings with the new senior debentures issued in March 2025, as well as lower interest income earned on cash on hand due to lower interest rates.
• Net earnings increased $9.7 million or 7% in the quarter versus a year ago to $140.6 million. EPS was $1.73 (basic) and $1.72 (fully diluted), 8% higher compared to the same period last year.
• For the year–to–date period, net earnings decreased $10.8 million or 3% to $339.4 million compared to the similar period last year. EPS was $4.18 (basic) and $4.15 (fully diluted), 2% lower compared to last year.
• Bookings⁽¹⁾ for the third quarter increased 47% compared to last year with higher bookings at both CIMCO and the Equipment Group, including a significant contribution from the acquired business. On a year–to–date basis, bookings increased 13% with both groups reporting higher bookings: Equipment Group up 13% and CIMCO up 13%.
• Backlog⁽¹⁾ of $1.3 billion as at September 30, 2025, was up from $1.1 billion as at September 30, 2024. Backlog remains healthy, reflecting deliveries and progress on construction schedules, good new booking activity and backlog related to the acquired business.

https://money.tmx.com/quote/TIH/news/7143833258791914/TOROMONT_ANNOUNCES_RESULTS_FOR_THE_THIRD_QUARTER_OF_2025_AND_QUARTERLY_DIVIDEND?utm_source=chatgpt.com

* Note: Several additional U.S. data reports could be be released if the government shutdown is resolved. Earnings dates are subject to change

Monday November 3

Manufacturing PMIs released in China and Europe

930 am ET: S&P global manufacturing PMI

10 am ET: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI

130 pm ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem holds a fireside chat in Toronto

Auto sales for October

Earnings include: Berkshire Hathaway Inc.; CT REIT; Franco-Nevada Corp.; Gibson Energy Inc.; Palantir Technologies Inc.; Topaz Energy Corp.

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Tuesday November 4

Japan releases manufacturing PMI

Canadian federal budget

Earnings include: Advanced Micro Devices Inc.; Amgen Inc.; Artemis Gold Inc.; Boardwalk REIT; Colliers International Group Inc.; Dream Industrial REIT; Energy Fuels Inc.; Ero Copper Corp.; First Capital Realty Inc.; Fortis Inc.; Hut 8 Corp.; IA Financial Corp. Inc.; Iamgold Corp.; Intact Financial Corp.; Kinross Gold Corp.; Marriott International Inc.; Meg Energy Corp.; Ovintiv Inc.; Pfizer Inc.; Shopify Inc.; Spotify Technology SA; SSR Mining Inc.; Uber Technologies Inc.; Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.

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Wednesday November 5

China and euro area services PMIs

Germany releases factory orders and France industrial production

815 am ET: U.S. ADP national employment report for October

930 am ET: S&P global services PMI

10 am ET: U.S. S&P global services/composite PMI

430 pm ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and senior deputy Rogers testify before the House Standing Committee on finance

Earnings include: Applovin Corp.; Arm Holdings ADR; Brookfield Renewable Partners LP; B2Gold Corp.; Cameco Corp.; CGI Inc.; Choice Properties REIT; Doordash Inc.; First Majestic Silver Corp.; GFL Environmental Holdings Inc.; Great-West Lifeco Inc.; Keyera Corp.; Kinaxis Inc.; Linamar Corp.; Maple Leaf Foods Inc.; McDonald’s Corp.; Novo Nordisk ADR; Nutrien Ltd.; Open Text Corp.; Robinhood Markets Inc.; Stella-Jones Inc.; Suncor Energy Inc.; Sun Life Financial Inc.; Torex Gold Resources Inc.; WSP Global Inc.

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Thursday November 6

China trade surplus

Euro area retail sales and Germany industrial production

7 am ET: Bank of England monetary policy announcement

10 am ET: Canada Ivey PMI

10 am ET: U.S. global supply chain pressure index

1030 am ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and senior deputy Governor Rogers testify before the Senate Banking Committee

Ontario fall fiscal update

Earnings include: Arc Resources Ltd.; AstraZeneca PLC; BCE Inc.; Bombardier Inc.; Brookfield Business Partners LP; Canadian Apartment Properties REIT; Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.; Chartwell Retirement Residences; ConocoPhillips; Definity Financial Corp.; DPM Metals Inc.; Exchange Income Corp. Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.; IGM Financial Inc.; Lundin Gold Inc.; Pembina Pipeline Corp.; Premium Brands Holdings Corp.; Quebecor Corp.; RioCan REIT; Saputo Inc.; TC Energy Corp.; TransAlta Corp.; Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

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Friday November 7

830 am ET: Canada employment for October. Consensus is for 20,000 net job losses, with the unemployment rate rising one notch to 7.2%. Average hourly wages are expected to be up 3.2% from a year ago.

10 am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Earnings include: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.; Atco Ltd.; Boralex Inc.; Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.; Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP; Canadian Utilities Ltd.; Constellation Software Inc.; Emera Inc.; Enbridge Inc.; Endeavour Silver Corp.; Onex Corp.; Telus Corp.

Here’s a tight, sourced outlook for winter 2025/26 U.S. natural gas (Henry Hub) with what’s priced in now and the main swing risks.

What’s priced in today (futures strip)

As of today’s quotes, the CME winter strip implies a modest run-up into Jan and easing by March:

• Dec ’25: ~$3.84
• Jan ’26: ~$4.12
• Feb ’26: ~$3.90
• Mar ’26: ~$3.57. CME Group

Base-case takeaway: the market is discounting a $3.6–$4.2/MMBtu winter, peaking in January.

Fundamentals setting the tone

• High starting storage: EIA shows 3,882 Bcf for the week ending Oct 24 and projects near-record start-of-winter inventories and an end-of-withdrawal level around 1,990 Bcf (≈8% above 5-yr avg) if weather is normal—this dampens spike risk. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1
• STEO price path: EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook has Henry Hub near $4.10 in Jan ’26, up from sub-$3 in Sep ’25 thanks to seasonal demand, but softer than prior forecasts due to stronger production/storage. U.S. Energy Information Administration
• Weather setup: NOAA’s Winter Outlook (issued Oct 16) leans La Niña with EC/“equal chances” of below/near/above-normal temps for much of the Lower-48 and wetter PNW/Northern Plains—i.e., not a strongly bullish cold signal nationally. Climate Prediction Center+1
• LNG exports: U.S. LNG capacity is ramping through 2025-26 (Plaquemines P1/P2, Corpus Christi Stage 3; Golden Pass commissioning starting Q4 ’25). Adds winter demand pull but timing is staggered. Riviera Maritime Media+3U.S. Energy Information Administration+3U.S. Energy Information Administration+3
• Global backdrop: IEA’s Gas 2025 notes comfortable near-term balances with big LNG additions coming, curbing extreme upside unless winter is harsh. iea.blob.core.windows.net+1

My forecast (Henry Hub, Dec–Mar average)

• Base case (most likely): $3.60–$4.20/MMBtu average, peak days in late Dec–Jan if cold shots line up. Supported by high storage + only moderately cold NOAA outlook; aligns with the strip and EIA STEO. CME Group+2U.S. Energy Information Administration+2
• Bull case (colder-than-normal or LNG ramp faster): brief spikes into $5–$6 possible on Arctic outbreaks or LNG outages flipping to heavy draws—but persistence would require multi-week cold across major load centers. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1
• Bear case (warm winter / production surprises): $3.00–$3.50 if DJF temps skew warm and storage stays well above average. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1

What would change the call quickly

1. Weather: Early-season cold in the Midwest/Northeast (watch NOAA weekly updates) → shifts toward bull case. Climate Prediction Center
2. LNG timing: Faster commissioning at Golden Pass and steady Plaquemines/Corpus ramp → stronger winter baseload demand. Delays do the opposite. argusmedia.com+1
3. Storage trajectory: EIA weekly prints materially below 5-yr → tightens balances; persistent above-avg → caps rallies. U.S. Energy Information Administration

Practical read-across (Canada)

If you hedge off Henry Hub, expect AECO basis to move with pipeline/maintenance dynamics; directional winter view still anchors to HH.

Carney says he advised Ford not to run anti-tariff ad

Prime Minister Mark Carney said he advised Ontario Premier Doug Ford not to run a TV ad critical of Donald Trump’s tariffs that resulted in the U.S. President cancelling trade talks and threatening higher levies.

Speaking to reporters at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Mr. Carney also confirmed he had apologized to Mr. Trump for the advertisement.

“The President was offended by the ad and it’s not something I would have done, which is to put in place that advertisement, and so I apologized to him.”

He said the apology was conveyed to the U.S. President Wednesday evening when the pair and other leaders attended a dinner hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. The meal was in Mr. Trump’s honour.

Mr. Carney, who had viewed the ad before it went to air, said he had advised the Ontario premier not to broadcast it. “You saw what came of it,” he said of the fallout from the advertisement.

Mr. Ford has defended the TV spot but Mr. Carney noted Saturday “there are other premiers who have different view in terms of the utility of those ads.”

Mr. Ford’s office declined to comment on Saturday, and pointed to the Premier’s previous comments defending the ad. Mr. Ford has not directly said whether Mr. Carney told him not to run the ad.

When asked last week if the Prime Minister approved the ad, Mr. Ford said, “They know what I was doing, and I said I was going to stop it on Monday. It was very successful.”

Canada has been negotiating with the Trump administration for more than six months in hopes of getting the U.S. President to reduce a slew of tariffs he’s imposed on Canadian goods.

Mr. Carney said the two sides had been making progress before talks were suspended last week.

On Friday, Mr. Trump told reporters he did not plan to restart trade talks with Canada despite the fact he is fond of Mr. Carney and regardless of the fact the Canadian Prime Minister apologized for the TV ad. “I have a very good relationship. I like him a lot. But you know, what they did was wrong,” the U.S President said.

Asked what his next move was, Mr. Carney said it’s the federal budget on Nov. 4 in which he will introduce measures to help refashion the Canadian economy for an era of U.S. protections where businesses in Canada need to find alternative markets.

“We can spend our time watching Truth Social,” Mr. Carney said. Or, Canada can restructure its economy, he said.

“We’re focusing on what we can control, which first and foremost is how we build at home.”

The U.S. President broke off trade talks with Canada last week, citing the Ontario government TV ad. After it aired during Game 1 of the World Series, he announced that he would boost tariffs on Canadian imports by another 10 per cent.

The 60-second TV spot used footage from nearly 40 years ago of former U.S. president Ronald Reagan decrying American protectionism, saying such trade barriers hurt every American worker and consumer.

Mr. Trump has not yet issued any executive order to enforce the threatened 10-per-cent hike. It’s not clear if this new levy would apply to all Canadian imports or a selection of them. And he has announced no date for this increase.

In addition to U.S. tariffs on goods not compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, Mr. Trump has imposed a number of sectoral tariffs that affect Canadian industry disproportionately, including a 50-per-cent levy on steel and aluminum and a 25-per-cent levy on automobiles. Softwood producers are facing levies totalling more than 45 per cent.

Magna International Inc. reported US$305 million in net income attributable to the company, down from US$484 million in the same quarter last year. The auto parts company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says the profit amounted to US$1.08 per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with US$1.68 per diluted share a year earlier. Sales for the quarter totalled US$10.46 billion, up from US$10.28 billion in the same quarter last year. On an adjusted basis, Magna says it earned US$1.33 per diluted share in its most recent quarter, up from an adjusted profit of US$1.28 per diluted share a year earlier. In its outlook, Magna says it now expects company sales for 2025 to total between US$41.1 billion and US$42.1 billion compared with earlier guidance for between US$40.4 billion and US$42.0 billion. Adjusted net income attributable to the company is expected to be between US$1.45 billion and US$1.55 billion compared with earlier guidance for between US$1.35 billion and US$1.55 billion.