U.S.-based Exxon and Canada-based Suncor appealed after the Colorado Supreme Court let Boulder’s lawsuit accusing them of state law violations proceed. President Donald Trump’s administration has backed Exxon and Suncor, arguing that the federal government’s authority to regulate air pollution precludes Boulder’s claims.
The top U.S. judicial body opens its new term on the first Monday in October, as is its custom. It also has major cases involving Trump’s hardline immigration policies and state-level bans on assault-style rifles, among others, lined up for the term.
Boulder’s city and county governments have accused Exxon and Suncor of helping drive climate change and misleading the public about the risks of fossil fuels. Boulder aims to hold the companies liable for past and future costs associated with climate change such as infrastructure repairs, environmental damage, emergency management and harms to public health.
The burning of fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, trapping heat and raising average global temperatures over time.
Nearly 60 state and local governments have brought similar suits seeking billions of dollars from fossil fuel companies, with more continuing to be filed, Exxon and Suncor told the justices. A ruling by the Supreme Court siding with the companies could lead to many of those cases being dismissed.
Monday’s arguments mark the latest example of energy-sector companies asking the justices to block climate-related liability or limit federal environmental regulation.
Backers of the oil companies argue that if Boulder’s most far-reaching claims are allowed to proceed, it could give states sweeping power over conduct occurring far outside their borders.
Energy companies and trade groups, along with states allied with them, have built a largely winning record before the justices over the past two decades in cases involving climate liability and the reach of federal environmental regulation.
The current court has a 6-3 conservative majority.
Exxon and Suncor argue, among other things, that Boulder’s claims intrude on an area controlled by the federal government as well as the Clean Air Act.
Justice Samuel Alito has recused himself from participating in the case. Alito owns stock in several oil and gas companies but not Exxon or Suncor, according to his financial disclosure forms.
The Supreme Court’s decision is expected by the end of June.
Canada’s services economy contracted for a fourth straight month in September as tariffs and the war in the Middle East contributed to economic uncertainty, S&P Global’s Canada services PMI data showed on Monday.
The headline Business Activity Index rose to 48.3 last month from 46.8 in August but remained below the 50 mark. A sub-50 reading indicates contraction in the sector.
“September once again proved to be a difficult month for businesses, with net reductions in output and new work both signalled,” Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.
“These declines were again closely associated with tariffs and the war in Iran, which resulted in a high degree of uncertainty, lower levels of export trade and operating expenses being raised to an uncomfortably high degree.”
The United States and Canada have adopted rounds of countertariffs since early 2025, while a U.S. import ban on many Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and dairy products took effect last week.
With a reading of 48.5, the new business index was below the 50 threshold for a fifth consecutive month as new export business declined at a steeper rate than in August.
The input price index rose to 62.2 from 61.7 in August, reflecting the rise in cost pressures.
Still, hopes that uncertainty could ease helped lift sentiment, S&P Global said. The future activity index rose to 61.4 from 56.4 in August, notching a five-month high.
The S&P Global Canada Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index edged up to 48.7 in September from 47.8 in August but was stuck below the 50 no-change mark for a fourth month in a row.
Data on Thursday showed that the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a six-month low of 51.5 last month from 53.0 in August.
Suncor Energy Inc. SU-T -0.33%decrease is selling its interests in three oil fields off Newfoundland to London-based Ithaca Energy PLC IACAF +1.63%increase. The deal, worth up to $1.55-billion, marks a major reduction in the Calgary-based company’s presence in the region, where it has been active for decades.
Suncor said on Sunday the sale of stakes in the Terra Nova, White Rose and West White Rose projects is aimed at honing the company’s focus on its main cash-generating assets in northern Alberta, where it is one of the largest players.
“We are aligning our portfolio around our competitive advantages and the strengths of our unparalleled, physically integrated business, underpinned by large-scale, long-life oil sands resources,” Rich Kruger, Suncor’s chief executive officer, said in a statement.
The company is selling its 48-per-cent interest in Terra Nova, its 40-per-cent interest in White Rose and its 38.6-per-cent interest in West White Rose for $1.2-billion.
Ithaca, one of the largest operators in the British North Sea, could also be on the hook for an additional contingent payment of up to $350-million, based on future oil prices.
The deal is expected to close in early 2027. Suncor said it will retain its stakes in the Hibernia and Hebron fields, which are also located off Canada’s East Coast.
Ithaca will become the operator of Terra Nova. Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired 17 years ago, discovered that field in 1984.
Ithaca said the deal marks its first international acquisition. The interests provide long-life reserves in an operating environment that is similar to that on the U.K. Continental Shelf, executive chairman Yaniv Friedman said in a statement.
Suncor also said on Sunday it is increasing the budget it has earmarked for normal-course share repurchases to $750-million per month from $500-million.
Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE-T -2.98%decrease will acquire rival oil sands producer Athabasca Oil ATH-T +13.99%increase for roughly $5.7-billion, the Calgary-based company announced Monday.
The deal represents something of a doubling down in the oil sands for major producers. It made the announcement roughly 12 hours after fellow oil producer Suncor Energy Inc. SU-T -0.33%decrease said it would sell its assets off the coast of Newfoundland and less than one year after the Cenovus acquired MEG Energy.
Acquiring Athabasca adds “a high-quality oil sands resource base with decades of development potential ahead of it” to Cenovus’s portfolio, the company’s chief executive Jon McKenzie said Monday morning on a conference call.
The deal will initially add roughly 45,000 barrels a day of production to Cenovus’ books, but Mr. McKenzie said the company sees an opportunity to increase thermal production to approximately 115,000 barrels a day by 2032.
“That represents one of the most significant organic growth opportunities available in Canadian oil sands today,” he said.
The Athabasca assets are also close to existing undeveloped resources Cenovus already owns, including Thornberry and May River, which together hold an estimated 550 million barrels of oil.
“This transaction creates the possibility, in time, to access those resources without building a new greenfield processing facility,” Mr. McKenzie said.
Cenovus expects to finance the deal by 65 per cent to 75 per cent cash, and 25 per cent to 35 per cent shares. The transaction is expected to close in December.
Kinew said the deficit was cut in half. Spending rose. The $5 billion is equalization only, and it did not produce the smaller deficit. (see below).
What he said. On 21 Sep 2026, releasing the 2025-26 public accounts, Kinew said Manitoba had “cut the deficit in half” since the third-quarter update and was on track to balance next year. The audited deficit was $832 million, versus a December forecast of about $1.66 billion. That is a deficit cut, not a spending cut. His government also said expenses fell $210 million from the spring third-quarter update. That is a revision of an in-year forecast, not a cut versus the prior year.
What the accounts show. Revenue was $25.1 billion. Spending was $25.92 billion. Spending ran about $65 million over budget. Health alone was about $276 million over. Special warrants added about $600 million, including $350 million for wildfires and $250 million for health. The 2026-27 budget then raises total spending to $27.3 billion, up $1.4 billion, or about 5.4%. The first-quarter update has this year tracking about $277 million over budget. Debt interest is about $2.4 billion.
Where the $832 million came from. The improvement versus the December forecast was mostly revenue, not restraint.
Individual, corporate and other taxes came in $558 million above budget.
That offset a $446 million Manitoba Hydro loss (drought; budget had assumed a $220 million profit) and federal transfers that were $250 million below the provincial forecast, largely delayed childcare and infrastructure dollars.
The $5 billion. Equalization for 2026-27 is about $5 billion, up $355 million, or 7.5%, and roughly double the 2020 amount. All federal transfers in 2025-26 were $8.68 billion, 34.6% of provincial revenue, against a 15-year average of 28.6%. Budget 2026 uses that equalization jump to fund higher health spending and a smaller projected deficit ($498 million). It is a revenue substitute, not evidence that expenditures were halved.
Bottom line. Half the forecast deficit disappeared because tax revenue overshot. Expenditures were not reduced 50%. They were over budget, then set to rise again, with a larger share paid by Ottawa.
Without federal transfers, Manitoba’s economy would still exist. The provincial budget would not.
The gap. In 2025-26, revenue was $25.1 billion and spending was $25.92 billion, a deficit of $832 million. Federal transfers were $8.68 billion, 34.6% of revenue. Strip those out and own-source revenue is about $16.4 billion against the same $25.9 billion of spending. The deficit becomes roughly $9.5 billion, about 11 times the audited shortfall, before counting debt interest of about $2.4 billion.
Equalization alone is about $5 billion in 2026-27, up $355 million and roughly double 2020. That is the have-not payment. The rest of the $8.68 billion is the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer, and bilateral deals for childcare, health and infrastructure. Those are not optional add-ons. They are how Manitoba funds a large share of health, education and social services.
What would have to give. To balance with no transfers, spending would have to fall by about a third, or taxes would have to rise by about half of own-source revenue, or some mix. Health is already the overrun centre ($276 million over budget last year, plus a $250 million special warrant). A one-third cut cannot be absorbed in administration. It would mean fewer hospital and school services, higher provincial taxes, or both. The rainy-day deposit and the path to balance next year disappear. Debt, already projected above $38 billion, would compound because a $9–10 billion annual gap cannot be financed at today’s yields without a ratings hit.
What would not change. Private GDP, wages and the Hydro drought are not transfer-funded. Manitoba’s 2025 real GDP growth was 1.3%. Trade, tariffs and USMCA still bind the export base. Losing transfers does not shrink the economy by 35%. It removes the federal top-up that lets a below-average fiscal capacity run a near-national level of services. The 15-year average transfer share is 28.6%. At 34.6%, the province is more dependent than its own recent history, which is why a federal health-funding cliff after March 2027 already shows up as a budget risk.
Bottom line. No transfers means Manitoba loses the ability to fund current services without a deficit on the order of $9–10 billion, a spending cut of about one-third, or a large tax increase.
The $832 million deficit is the result after Ottawa has already paid for roughly a third of the budget.
Middle East energy risk has increased again: Reuters reports fire and heavy smoke near a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh today, although Saudi authorities and Aramco had not confirmed the cause at the time of reporting. Reuters
A crude tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile off Oman, adding to recent attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
Ukraine says it will intensify strikes on Russian oil refineries, increasing potential disruption to global refined-product supply. Reuters
U.S. labour data materially weakened Friday: September payroll growth was only 29,000, lowering expectations for an immediate October Fed rate hike and supporting equities and bonds. Reuters
Teck Resources has a new China-related regulatory issue: Beijing is reportedly seeking copper-supply commitments before approving the US$54 billion Anglo American–Teck merger. Reuters
1. Saudi Aramco Facility — New Energy Risk
Breaking today: Reuters reports that a witness saw fire and a large plume of smoke near a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh. No cause had been confirmed and there was no immediate claim of responsibility when Reuters reported the incident.
This follows heightened Saudi–Houthi tensions and recent attempted attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure.
TSX transmission
Development
Possible impact
TSX exposure
Confirmed attack on Saudi energy infrastructure
Oil risk premium ↑
CNQ, SU, CVE, IMO
Production/export disruption
WTI/Brent potentially ↑ materially
Energy sector positive
Escalating regional conflict
Inflation expectations ↑
Banks/rates mixed; REITs/utilities vulnerable
Incident proves contained/non-energy related
Risk premium fades
Oil potentially gives back gains
Current assessment: potentially high impact, but confirmation is still missing.
The key question before Monday’s open is whether Saudi authorities confirm damage to energy infrastructure or production.
2. Another Tanker Hit Near Oman
A crude-oil tanker was struck by an unknown projectile roughly four nautical miles east of Oman. The crew was reported safe and there was initially no reported environmental damage. Reuters
This follows reports that three tankers were struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Reuters
That increases the probability that markets price a larger:
A sustained rise in crude would help TSX Energy earnings but could simultaneously raise inflation and bond yields, creating pressure elsewhere in the index.
3. Ukraine Plans More Russian Refinery Strikes
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said today that Ukraine intends to intensify attacks on Russian oil refineries in response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Reuters
This matters because Russian refining capacity is already constrained.
Reuters previously reported that half of Russia’s six largest diesel-producing refineries had materially reduced or halted production following drone attacks. Reuters
Russia has also restricted diesel exports, while China has suspended October fuel exports to preserve domestic stocks. Reuters
Important distinction
The pressure is particularly acute in refined products such as diesel, rather than simply crude oil.
Integrated Canadian producers/refiners such as Suncor and Imperial Oil therefore potentially have greater sensitivity than pure crude producers because refining margins also matter.
4. Counterweight: G7 Releases Energy Reserves
There is an important offset.
European governments have agreed to participate in a release of diesel reserves, and Reuters reports a broader agreement involving 100 million barrels of diesel reserves aimed at easing supply pressure. Reuters
The U.S. has also said it will not impose a diesel export ban. Reuters
Therefore the oil thesis is not one-directional.
Energy scenario
Scenario
Oil implication
TSX Energy
Saudi infrastructure damaged + Hormuz attacks increase
Strong upside pressure
Positive
Shipping disruption but production intact
Moderate risk premium
Positive/moderate
Reserve releases offset disruptions
Oil stabilizes
Neutral
Iran diplomacy improves + Saudi incident contained
Risk premium ↓
Negative relative
5. Major U.S. Jobs Miss Changes Rate Outlook
Friday’s U.S. payroll report was materially weaker than expected.
September payrolls increased only 29,000, while unemployment rose to 4.2%, and previous months were revised lower. Reuters
Reuters reports that the weak report reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would hike rates at its October 27–28 meeting. Reuters
U.S. equities subsequently advanced as rate-hike expectations declined. Reuters
→ Canadian exports potentially ↓ → industrial activity ↓ → bank credit growth potentially ↓ → commodity demand potentially ↓
For the TSX, the distinction between “soft landing” and “growth slowdown” is increasingly important.
6. Teck Resources — China Adds Merger Condition
This is one of the more important company-specific developments for the TSX.
Reuters reports that China’s antitrust regulator is seeking commitments that the proposed Anglo American–Teck Resources combination continue supplying copper concentrate to China before approving the approximately US$54 billion transaction. Reuters
China reportedly processes about 60% of global copper cathode and is concerned about concentrate shortages. Reuters
TECK implications
Potential positive interpretation
demonstrates strategic value of Teck’s copper assets;
reinforces structural scarcity of copper concentrate.
Potential negative interpretation
regulatory approval becomes more complicated;
conditions could constrain commercial flexibility;
transaction timetable could face uncertainty.
This becomes a specific TECK watch item Monday morning.
7. Canada–U.S. Trade Risk Remains Elevated
There does not appear to be a major new Canada-specific tariff announcement today, but the existing dispute remains important.
Reuters reports that the U.S. administration has indicated little urgency to resolve the trade dispute, while Canada has implemented retaliatory tariffs. Reuters
The Bank of Canada recently estimated that new U.S. tariffs could push Canada’s Q4 growth rate below 1% annualized. Reuters
The real-economy impact is already visible: Cleveland-Cliffs plans to idle some operations at Stelco’s Hamilton facility beginning October 9, with potentially hundreds of employees affected. Reuters
Week of 5–9 Oct 2026. The tape is still the Iran/Hormuz oil risk and the bond-yield shock. The calendar itself is light. Two prints matter for the TSX: FOMC minutes and Canadian jobs.
Geopolitics
US–Iran / Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire is already broken. IRGC attacks on commercial shipping, US strikes, and revoked oil-export waivers. Brent is still elevated after the spike toward $120. A fresh closure threat hits energy up and everything else down. A credible reopen does the reverse.
OPEC / G7 energy talks. OPEC and non-OPEC ministers meet this week. G7 energy ministers are also in contact on fuel releases. Direct read-through to Canadian producers and the TSX energy weight.
China Golden Week. Mainland markets shut through 7 Oct. No southbound bid for Hong Kong, thinner commodity demand signals. Shanghai does not reopen until mid-week at the earliest.
USMCA review. No dated event. Still the background risk for autos, steel and aluminum after Washington declined the automatic renewal.
Economic
Day
Event
TSX read
Mon 5
US ISM services, Sep, 10:00 ET. Consensus about 55.1 vs 55.4
Growth vs inflation. A hot print keeps the 10-year bid and pressures banks.
Tue 6
Canada merchandise trade, Aug, 8:30 ET. US trade, same time. Ivey PMI 10:00 ET
Export tape after five surplus months. Energy and auto exports are the swing.
Wed 7
FOMC minutes (15–16 Sep meeting), 14:00 ET. US 10-year auction. DOE oil inventories 10:30 ET
Main event. Minutes that lean toward another hike extend the yield shock. A soft auction does the same. Inventories move oil.
Thu 8
US jobless claims 8:30 ET. ECB accounts. Aritzia Q2 (scheduled)
Claims are the first labour check after Friday’s 29k payroll miss. ATZ is a single-name event, not an index event.
Fri 9
Canada labour force, Sep, 8:30 ET. Consensus about +9,500 jobs, unemployment 6.5% vs 6.4%. Michigan sentiment 10:00 ET
August was −42,000 jobs, unemployment stuck at 6.4%. A weak print hits the banks and the Canadian dollar. A firm print revives BoC-hike talk into the 28 Oct decision.
What actually moves the index. Oil headlines first, then Wednesday’s minutes and the 10-year auction, then Friday’s Canadian jobs. China being shut keeps the materials bid thinner until mid-week.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is back in Ottawa and apparently ready to resume his government’s Parliamentary responsibilities and get on with the business of looking after some of Canada’s internal political and economic issues. The short list includes growing deficits and debt, health-care bottlenecks, rising consumer costs, taxation, climate commitments, trade war impacts, Indigenous relations, pipelines to the coasts, and major mining projects.
Canadians can only hope that attempts to deal with these issues are a little more obviously effective than the long trail of uncertainty the prime minister has left behind following his numerous excursions abroad. The larger uncertainties include the Canada-U.S. trade relationship, the new plan to become an associate member of the EU, and the foreign investment booster summit that has yet to produce results.
Beyond those big national economic questions are many uncertainties, confusions and contradictions surrounding such topics as Arctic defence, China, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, Belarus and Mexico.
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On Sunday, Carney met Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in Ottawa to promote greater economic ties and announce plans to deepen collaboration in the Arctic and across defence, critical minerals, energy, science and emerging technologies. The joint Canada/Norway Arctic defence strategy, an objective proposed in previous years, was given new publicity just after U.S. President Donald Trump announced last Friday that the U.S. had reached an Arctic defence agreement with Denmark and its subsidiary territory, Greenland.
Greenland, of course, had been declared a takeover target by Trump, just as he has verbally threatened to annex Canada. Now that he has succeeded in acquiring rights for military operations in Greenland, does this change the outlook for Canada’s role in the Arctic?
Canada has a new Arctic deal with Norway, and the U.S. has a deal with Denmark/Greenland. At the same time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said that Arctic defence would be a “flagship joint project” if Canada were to become an associate member of the EU.
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But will Canada become an associate EU member?
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Denmark has said that under the United States-Greenland deal, Arctic security would fall under NATO oversight, where Denmark is also believed to be among European nations that lack enthusiasm for making Canada an “associate member” of the EU. Others, including Germany, do not support the associate member label.
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Germany is also taking a stand against Chinese EVs and hybrid models. The EU already imposes 10 per cent tariffs on Chinese EVs and wants China to now restrict exports of hybrids prior to new trade deal negotiations. An EU official told the Financial Times “if they will not limit their exports to our market, then we will.” Ottawa, meanwhile, is prepared to allow 49,000 Chinese-made EVs into Canada on a quota system at a most-favoured nation tariff rate of 6.1 per cent. The government says the objective is to “catalyze considerable new Chinese joint-venture investment in Canada with trusted partners to protect and create new auto manufacturing jobs for Canadian workers, and ensure a robust build-out of Canada’s EV supply chain.”
Auto sales in September in Canada were up from a year ago, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains, according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.
The firm estimates 168,000 vehicles were sold in the month, up 3.4 per cent from September 2025.
Andrew King, managing partner at DesRosiers, says the market has shown stability in recent months despite conflict in the Middle East and a tariff dispute with the United States.
But DesRosiers says sales could be weaker in the fourth quarter, compared with stronger sales seen in 2025.
On a year-to-date basis, auto sales are still 0.7 per cent lower than 2025 levels.
Despite the winning streak, auto sales have slowed this year as gas prices remain elevated and Canadian households pull back on spending amid geopolitical uncertainties.
