Category: Uncategorized

Monday October 19

China releases third quarter GDP plus September retail sales and industrial production

830 am ET: Canada consumer price index for September. Consensus is for a monthly rise of 0.2%, or 3.2% year over year, accelerating from August’s 3.0%

10 am ET: U.S. NAHB housing market index

1130 am ET: Bank of Canada business outlook survey and survey of consumer expectations

Alberta referendum vote

Earnings include: BHP Group Ltd.; Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.; Fifth Third Bancorp; Steel Dynamics Inc.; W.R. Berkley Corp.

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Tuesday October 20

Germany business sentiment survey and UK employment data

815 am ET: U.S. ADP employment data

830 am ET: Canadian household and mortgage credit data

830 am ET: U.S. housing starts and building permits

10 am ET: U.S. pending home sales for September

Earnings include: Capital One Financial Corp.; Chubb Ltd.; GE Aerospace; General Motors Co.; Halliburton Co.; Netflix Inc.; Philip Morris International Inc.; Rtx Corp.; United Airlines Holdings Inc.; 3M Corp.

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Wednesday October 21

Japan trade balance for September

UK inflation for September

830 am ET: Canadian construction investment data for August

Earnings include: AT&T Inc.; CSX Corp.; IBM; Kinder Morgan Inc.; Meta Platforms Inc.; Nextera Energy Inc.; Tesla Inc.; Texas Instruments Inc.; Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.; Waste Connections Inc.

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Thursday October 22

Euro area consumer conference and France business confidence

8 am ET: Canada’s CFIB business barometer

830 am ET: Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for September. BMO economists estimate a rise of 1% and 5% respectively.

830 am ET: Canada new housing price index for September. BMO forecasts a monthly decline of 0.1%, or a drop of 2% from a year earlier.

830 am ET: U.S. initial jobless claims

10 am ET: U.S. leading indicators

Earnings include: Blackstone Inc.; Comcast Corp.; FirstService Corp.; Gilead Sciences Inc.; Honeywell International Inc.; Lockheed Martin Corp.; Mullen Group Ltd.; Nasdaq Inc.; Newmont Corp.; Procter & Gamble Co.; Roche Holdings AG; Spotify Technology SA; Union Pacific Corp.; Western Digital Corp.; Winpak Ltd.

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Friday October 23

Japan consumer prices for September and October purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)

Euro area manufacturing PMIs; ECB three-year CPI expectations; UK consumer confidence, retail sales and PMIs

830 am ET: Canada retail sales for August. Consensus is for a rise of 1.1%, reversing from a 0.7% drop in July

830 am ET: Canada manufacturing sales for September

945 am ET: S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs for the U.S.

10 am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Earnings include: American Express Co.; ExxonMobil Holdings Corp.; Rogers Communications Inc.

Barrick declined approximately 4.4%, from C$60.40 to C$57.74, after reaching a high near C$62 in late September.

Price movements

1. September 11–22: Fluctuated between C$58.50 and C$62, with buying interest lifting shares to their period high.
2. September 23–October 2: Declined toward C$57 as selling pressure increased.
3. October 3–9: Continued weakening, reaching approximately C$55.50–56.
4. October 12–14: Rebounded toward C$58.50 before falling sharply to approximately C$54.70.
5. October 15–16: Recovered to C$57.74, approximately 5.6% above the recent low.

Main reasons for the decline

1. Gold-price weakness: Lower gold prices likely pressured earnings expectations for gold producers.
2. Rising bond yields: Higher yields increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, contributing to pressure on precious-metal investments.
3. Profit-taking: Selling followed the September rally toward C$62.
4. Market volatility: Broader weakness in mining shares and uncertainty surrounding inflation and interest rates may have amplified the decline.

These are plausible contributing factors rather than verified explanations for individual trading sessions.

Technical outlook

Indicator	Assessment
October 16 close	C$57.74
RSI(14), hourly	56.77 — moderately positive
Immediate support	C$56–57
Stronger support	C$54.50–55
Resistance	C$58.50–59
Stronger resistance	C$60–62

Conclusion: Barrick experienced a moderate correction followed by an encouraging rebound. The RSI above 50 indicates improving short-term momentum, but the share price remains below its September high.

A sustained move above C$59 would strengthen the recovery case, while a decline below C$56 would indicate renewed selling pressure.

All prices are in Canadian dollars

Royal Bank declined approximately 1.4%, from C$284 to C$280.01, after reaching a high near C$291 in late September.

Price movements

1. September 11–22: Advanced toward C$291, supported by positive banking-sector sentiment.
2. September 23–October 1: Declined toward C$274 as selling pressure increased across Canadian banks.
3. October 2–6: Stabilized around C$278–280.
4. October 7–9: Renewed selling pushed shares toward C$269, the lowest level on the chart.
5. October 12–16: Recovered to C$280.01, approximately 4.1% above the recent low.

Main reasons for the decline

1. Interest-rate uncertainty: Rising bond yields increased concerns about bank valuations and funding costs.
2. Credit-loss concerns: Investors worried about potential increases in loan-loss provisions amid economic and trade uncertainty.
3. Profit-taking: Shares had risen toward C$291 before investors reduced exposure.
4. Bank-sector recovery: Improving sentiment and easing bond-market pressures coincided with the rebound during October 12–16.

These are plausible market explanations, not a verified attribution of each price movement.

Technical outlook

Indicator	Assessment
October 16 close	C$280.01
RSI(14), hourly	60.8 — positive, not currently overbought
Immediate support	C$275–277
Stronger support	C$269–270
Resistance	C$282–285
Stronger resistance	C$289–291

Important RSI clarification: Your chart labels the stock as overbought, but the latest RSI is approximately 60.8, below the conventional overbought threshold of 70. It briefly reached 70 around October 16 before retreating.

Conclusion: Royal Bank experienced a correction followed by a relatively strong recovery. The rebound from C$269 to C$280 suggests improving momentum, but the stock remains below its September high.

A sustained move above C$285 would strengthen the recovery outlook. A decline below C$275 would weaken it, while a break below C$269 would signal renewed downside risk.

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First Quantum Minerals Ltd is a diversified mining company. The company’s principal activities include mineral exploration, mine engineering and construction, and development and mining operations. The firm produces copper in concentrate, copper anode, copper cathode, nickel, gold, zinc, silver, acid, and pyrite. It has operating mines located in Zambia, Panama, Turkey, Spain, Australia, and Mauritania. The company’s reportable operating segments are Cobre Panama, Kansanshi, and Trident.

First Quantum declined approximately 15%, from C$43.50 to C$36.79, mainly because of uncertainty surrounding its Cobre Panamá copper mine.

Price movements

1. September 11–22: Advanced toward C$47.50, reflecting optimism about copper and the possibility of restarting Cobre Panamá.
2. September 23–29: Stabilized around C$44–46.
3. September 30: Shares plunged as much as 38% intraday to approximately C$28, before recovering to close at C$38.23.
4. October 1–10: Stabilized around C$38–41, but remained well below September levels.
5. October 12–16: Renewed selling pushed shares to C$36.79.

Main reasons for the decline

1. Cobre Panamá uncertainty — primary cause: On September 30, a Panamanian government commission recommended negotiations that could permit the mine to restart, but with operations eventually funding its orderly closure. Investors feared a shorter operating life and reduced future cash flows. Reuters+1
2. Regulatory uncertainty: The operating period, ownership arrangements and legal conditions remain unresolved.
3. Profit-taking: The earlier rally left the shares vulnerable to selling following the announcement.
4. Copper-market uncertainty: Concerns about global industrial demand added potential pressure, although the September 30 plunge was primarily company-specific.

Technical outlook

Indicator	Assessment
October 16 close	C$36.79
RSI(14), hourly	Approximately 39.5 — weak
Support	C$36–37
Lower support	C$34–35
Resistance	C$39–40
Stronger resistance	C$44–45

Conclusion: Unlike several other TSX stocks, First Quantum’s decline was driven predominantly by a specific corporate development rather than general market weakness.

The critical factor is whether First Quantum can negotiate a commercially viable, sufficiently long operating agreement for Cobre Panamá.

A favourable agreement could materially improve the valuation outlook. Restrictive operating terms or failure to reach an agreement would undermine the recovery thesis.

National Bank declined approximately 3.2%, from C$211 to C$204.20, after reaching a high near C$216 on September 22.

Price movements

1. September 11–22: Advanced toward C$216, reflecting positive banking-sector momentum.
2. September 23–30: Declined toward C$201 as selling pressure increased across Canadian financial stocks.
3. October 1–6: Stabilized between approximately C$201 and C$205.
4. October 7–9: Renewed selling pushed the stock toward C$194, its lowest level on the chart.
5. October 12–16: Recovered to C$204.20, approximately 5.3% above its recent low.

Main reasons for the decline

1. Interest-rate uncertainty: Rising bond yields increased concerns about borrowing costs and bank valuations.
2. Credit-loss concerns: Investors became more cautious about potential loan defaults and provisions for credit losses, particularly in commercial lending.
3. Economic uncertainty: Canadian economic weakness and trade-related risks contributed to a more cautious outlook for bank earnings.
4. Sector-wide selling: National Bank’s decline coincided with broader weakness in Canadian financial shares.

These are plausible contributing factors, not verified explanations for each trading session.

Technical outlook

Indicator	Assessment
October 16 close	C$204.20
RSI(14), hourly	Approximately 58–59 — positive momentum
Support	C$200–201
Stronger support	C$194–195
Resistance	C$205–206
Stronger resistance	C$210–212

Conclusion: National Bank’s decline was consistent with broader concerns about Canadian bank valuations, interest rates and credit quality.

The recovery from C$194 to C$204.20 indicates improving short-term momentum. However, a sustained move above C$206 would provide stronger evidence of a recovery, while a decline below C$200 would weaken the outlook.

The RSI remains above 50, suggesting that buying momentum has improved without reaching significantly overbought conditions.

WSP Global Inc provides a professional services consulting firm offering technical expertise and advice to clients in the Transportation & Infrastructure, Earth & Environment, Property & Buildings, and Power & Energy sectors. The company also offers specialized services in project and program delivery and advisory services. The firm operates through four reportable segments namely, Canada, Americas ( United States and Latin America), EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India and Africa), and APAC (Asia Pacific, comprising Australia, New Zealand and Asia).

WSP declined approximately 8.2%, from C$181 to C$166.22, despite a modest recovery during the final trading sessions.

Price movements

1. September 11–22: Traded mainly between C$178 and C$185, briefly spiking toward C$192.
2. September 23–29: Selling intensified, pushing the share price below C$175.
3. September 30–October 8: Continued declining toward C$160, establishing a clear downward trend.
4. October 9–14: Consolidated around C$160–164.
5. October 15–16: Recovered to C$166.22, suggesting improving buying interest.

Main reasons for the decline

1. Rising bond yields: Higher interest rates pressured valuations and increased concerns about financing costs for infrastructure projects. The Wall Street Journal
2. Acquisition and integration costs: WSP raised its 2026 forecast for acquisition, integration and reorganization expenses to C$285–305 million, although its underlying business continued growing. WSP
3. Profit-taking and market volatility: Selling following the September price spike likely contributed to the decline. This is a technical interpretation, not a confirmed cause.
4. Uncertainty ahead of earnings: Investors are awaiting WSP’s third-quarter results on November 4. WSP

Technical outlook

Indicator	Assessment
October 16 close	C$166.22
RSI(14), hourly	Approximately 56–58; improving
Support	C$160–162
Resistance	C$170–173
Stronger resistance	C$175–180

Conclusion: WSP experienced a sustained decline followed by a modest recovery. The chart indicates improving short-term momentum, but not yet a confirmed trend reversal.

Importantly, WSP reported 22.9% year-over-year net revenue growth and a C$20.1 billion backlog in Q2, suggesting that the share-price decline does not, by itself, establish deteriorating business fundamentals.

WSP

A sustained move above C$173 would strengthen the recovery case; a break below C$160 would renew downside concerns.

September 11–October 16, 2026

Nutrien declined approximately 8%, from C$109.50 to C$100.81, despite a recovery during the final trading sessions.

Price movements

1. September 11–18: Fluctuated between C$107 and C$111, reaching a peak near C$111.
2. September 19–26: Fell sharply toward C$101 as selling pressure intensified.
3. September 28–October 9: Continued weakening, fluctuating between C$98 and C$102.
4. October 12–13: Declined toward C$95.50, the lowest level shown.
5. October 14–16: Recovered to C$100.81, gaining approximately 5.6% from the recent low.

Main reasons for the decline

1. Potash price uncertainty: Concerns about fertilizer supply, pricing and export competition likely weighed on Nutrien’s earnings outlook.
2. Agricultural demand concerns: A difficult Canadian harvest raised uncertainty around farmers’ purchasing power and future fertilizer spending. Reuters
3. Broader market weakness: Rising bond yields and reduced investor appetite for cyclical stocks may have intensified selling.
4. Technical selling: Repeated lower highs and lower lows indicated persistent downward momentum.

These are potential contributing factors, not independently verified explanations for each day’s decline.

Technical outlook

Indicator	Assessment
October 16 close	C$100.81
RSI(14), hourly	63.57 — improving momentum
Support	C$98–99
Stronger support	C$95–96
Resistance	C$102–104
Stronger resistance	C$106

Conclusion: Nutrien experienced a sustained decline followed by a recovery in the final sessions. The RSI above 60 suggests improving short-term momentum, but the stock remains below its September highs.

A sustained move above C$104 would strengthen the recovery case; a decline below C$98 would weaken it.

September 11–October 16, 2026

Cameco declined approximately 14.6%, from around C$135 to C$115.30, despite a brief recovery in early October.

Price movements

1. September 11–16: Declined from approximately C$135 to C$127, indicating early selling pressure.
2. September 17–22: Rebounded toward C$134 as buying interest returned.
3. September 23–October 2: Fell toward C$121, establishing a short-term downward trend.
4. October 5–6: Recovered sharply toward C$134, but the rally failed to hold.
5. October 7–16: Renewed selling pushed the stock toward C$112 before closing at C$115.30.

Main reasons for the decline

1. Production and earnings concerns: Reports of operational difficulties and lower production expectations increased concerns about Cameco’s future profitability. Trefis
2. Uranium shares lagged uranium prices: Despite historically strong long-term uranium contract prices, uranium equities weakened, suggesting investors were concerned about earnings execution and valuations. FairsOnline
3. Profit-taking and risk aversion: Global equity-market volatility likely amplified selling in Cameco following its earlier gains. Reuters

Technical outlook

Indicator	Assessment
October 16 close	C$115.30
RSI(14), hourly	Approximately 35–40, weak momentum
Support	C$112–114
Resistance	C$120–123
Stronger resistance	C$125–130

Conclusion: Cameco’s decline reflects both company-specific profitability concerns and weakening investor sentiment toward uranium equities. The stock remains technically weak. A sustained recovery above C$123 would be an initial indication of improving momentum, while a break below C$112 would increase downside risk.

Bank of Montreal | September 11–October 16, 2026

BMO declined approximately 2.5%, from around C$242.50 to C$236.40, after reaching a high near C$250 on September 22.

Main reasons for the movement

1. September 11–22 — Initial strength: BMO climbed toward C$250, reflecting relatively positive sentiment toward Canadian banks.
2. September 23–October 1 — Selling pressure: The stock declined toward C$233 as rising bond yields, bank valuation concerns and uncertainty about future credit losses weighed on the banking sector.
3. October 2–9 — Further decline: Renewed selling pushed BMO toward C$227, its lowest level on the chart. Concerns about inflation, interest rates and economic growth contributed to broader bank-sector weakness.
4. October 12–16 — Partial recovery: BMO rebounded toward C$236 as buying interest returned and bond-market pressures eased.

These are plausible market drivers; the chart alone cannot establish the precise cause of each movement.

Technical outlook

Indicator	Interpretation
October 16 close	C$236.40
RSI(14)	56.8 — moderately positive
Support	C$228–230
Resistance	C$238–240
Stronger resistance	C$245

Conclusion: BMO’s decline was consistent with broader banking-sector concerns about elevated interest rates, bond-market volatility and credit risk.

The rebound from its October 8 close of C$228.42 to C$236.40 on October 16 (+3.49%) indicates improving short-term momentum, but a sustained move above C$240 would provide stronger evidence of a trend reversal.