Here’s a rundown of the key things to watch for when forecasting the TSX for the week of March 2–6, 2026:
🇺🇸 U.S. Jobs Report (Friday, March 6) The first major event for global markets comes with February’s U.S. Employment Situation report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 6. These numbers have the power to jolt bond yields — and that usually spills over to impact the mood in TSX banks, tech, and commodity stocks. TS2
📉 Canada’s Economic Momentum Statscan data showed the economy shrank at a 0.6% annualized pace in Q4 2024, with 2025 growth easing back to 1.7% as firms cut inventories instead of stepping up production. The economy was “hardly thriving” given tariff and trade uncertainty. TS2 This soft backdrop heading into the week will weigh on rate-sensitive TSX sectors.
🔁 Tariff Policy Volatility Rapid shifts in U.S. tariff policy — including a proposed 15% across-the-board levy — are adding to business and investor uncertainty. Capital is rotating from high-multiple technology stocks toward tangible assets such as utilities, pipelines, and infrastructure. BNN Bloomberg
🏦 Bank Stocks & Sector Rotation Bay Street doubled down on its old standbys — banks and resources — earlier in the week, and that classic strategy delivered, with TD Bank and CIBC both beating profit expectations. TS2 Watch whether this momentum in bank earnings continues.
🛢️ Energy & Materials Sensitivity The sectors most exposed to tariffs in the near term are energy and materials. For these sectors, however, commodity prices — not tariffs — are likely to be the primary driver of performance. Edward Jones Keep an eye on crude oil prices in particular, as rising oil feeds directly into inflation concerns.
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD) Pressure The Canadian Dollar held well throughout the prior week but after a streak of softer CPI and Retail Sales, has started to see some outflows. MarketPulse A weaker loonie can benefit TSX exporters but also signals broader macro worry.
⚖️ Post-SCOTUS Tariff Landscape For Canada, the more relevant tariffs remain the Section 232 tariffs — including sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber products — which remain intact after the Supreme Court struck down the broader IEEPA-based tariffs. Edward Jones The CUSMA review slated for July 2026 is an important longer-term backdrop to monitor.
📅 Coming Up After the Week There are still two key dates ahead in March: the February labour force survey drops March 13, followed by the Bank of Canada’s policy-rate decision set for March 18. If the jobs numbers show weakness, rate-sensitive names on the TSX could take another hit. TS2
Bottom line for forecasters: The week is dominated by tariff headline risk, the Friday U.S. jobs report, and ongoing macro softness in Canada. Banks and energy remain the key sectoral bellwethers. Expect continued volatility driven by trade policy news out of Washington rather than domestic fundamentals alone.
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