Here’s a detailed, date-by-date outline of key economic releases next week (Jan 19–23, 2026) — including expected/consensus forecasts where available — that are most relevant for the TSX and broader market sentiment

📅 Monday, January 19, 2026

🇨🇳 China – Q4 GDP & Activity Data

• China Quarterly GDP (YoY) – Expected ~4.4–4.5% — growth is forecast to slow vs. prior quarter, reflecting weak domestic demand and property sector drag.
• Industrial Production (Dec) – (YoY) consensus not officially published — market watchers expect muted expansion or slight deceleration tied to domestic weak demand.
• Retail Sales (Dec) – (YoY) forecast weaker growth — a key gauge of consumer activity in China.
• Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) – (YTD YoY) data released — often shows investment ebb reflecting slower policy transmission.
  Why it matters for TSX: China is the world’s largest commodity consumer, so weaker activity tends to weigh on metals and energy prices, which can spill over to TSX materials & energy stocks.

🇨🇦 Canada – CPI & BoC Surveys

• Canada Consumer Price Index (Dec)
  • Headline & Core inflation — forecast: Moderation expected but still above 2% (BoC target range). Final consensus isn’t yet published, but the Bank of Canada is widely expected to stay on hold with rates, citing softer consumer demand.
• Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey – qualitative confidence indicator; no numerical consensus but will influence outlook for future policy.

📈 Global Risk Noise: The U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which typically reduces liquidity and can exaggerate moves in commodities and FX.

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📅 Tuesday, January 20, 2026

🇨🇳 China – PBoC Loan Prime Rates (LPR)

• One-year and five-year LPR expected stable — markets aren’t expecting changes in benchmark lending rates even as the economy slows.

🇬🇧 U.K. – Employment Report (Nov)

• Unemployment Rate – Expected ~5.0%
• Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3-Mo/Yr) – Expected softer growth ~4.4%
  These figures impact global sentiment and FX but are less directly impactful on TSX.

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📅 Wednesday, January 21, 2026

🇬🇧 U.K. CPI (Dec)

• Inflation (MoM & YoY) — expected modest deceleration, influences BoE stance.

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📅 Thursday, January 22, 2026

🇺🇸 United States – Key Macro Releases

• GDP Final (Q3) – confirms earlier estimates; no major revisions expected.
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Nov)
  • Core PCE YoY — consensus ~2.6–2.8%
  • Headline PCE YoY — consensus ~2.7%
    These are the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges — markets react strongly if figures deviate notably from expectations.
• Personal Spending & Income (Nov) — spending ahead of holidays is monitored for consumer momentum.

Why PCE matters: A stronger-than-expected PCE is interpreted as stickier inflation, potentially delaying rate cuts — this can tighten financial conditions and pressure equity valuations globally.

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📅 Friday, January 23, 2026

🇨🇦 Canada – Retail Sales (Nov)

• Retail Sales (MoM) — consensus moderately positive but slowing year-over-year — a key Canadian domestic demand gauge.

🇺🇸 United States – Flash PMIs (Jan)

• S&P Global PMI Flash (Manufacturing & Services) — early big-picture data on business activity.

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🧠 Forecast Summaries / Market Expectations

Release	Consensus / Expected	Market Implication
China Q4 GDP YoY	~4.4–4.5%	Slower growth → weaker commodity demand; may pressure TSX materials & energy.
Canada CPI (Dec)	Moderation but above 2%	BoC likely on hold; soft inflation supports equities.
U.S. Core PCE (Nov)	~2.6–2.8%	If above forecast, delays rate cuts → negative risk sentiment.
Canada Retail Sales (Nov)	Slight moderation	Gauge of domestic demand; better data supports consumer stocks.
U.S. Flash PMIs (Jan)	Mixed but modest growth	A key early growth snapshot into early 2026.

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🔎 Market Interpretation — TSX Focus

📉 Negative Risks

• A China GDP miss vs. forecast → lower metals/oil demand forecasts → negative for TSX materials & energy.
• Stronger U.S. PCE inflation than expected → tighter Fed policy expectations → risk off moves hurting equities.

📈 Positive Drivers

• Moderating Canadian inflation + soft retail sales → keeps BoC on hold, boosting yield-sensitive equities.
• Robust U.S. consumption/spending → supports risk assets broadly, potentially lifting TSX cyclicals.