Key focus next week (Aug 10–16, 2026)

US July inflation data (CPI Wednesday), followed by PPI, retail sales, and ongoing Middle East/Hormuz developments.

Major Economic Indicators

United States (highest market impact)

• Tuesday, Aug 11: Existing Home Sales (July) — expected slight decline.
• Wednesday, Aug 12: CPI (July) — consensus around +0.1% MoM / ~3.4% YoY; Core CPI ~+0.2% MoM / ~2.5% YoY. This is the week’s main event after recent soft labor data; it will heavily influence Fed rate-path pricing.
• Thursday, Aug 13: PPI (July) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
• Friday, Aug 14: Retail Sales (July, expected modest), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August preliminary), and Business Inventories.

Canada

• Wednesday, Aug 12: Building Permits (June).
• Friday, Aug 14: Manufacturing Shipments and Wholesale Trade (June).

Canadian CPI is due the following Monday (Aug 17).

Other notable releases

• Tuesday, Aug 11: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision (hold at 4.35% widely expected) + press conference.
• Thursday, Aug 13: UK Q2 GDP (preliminary).
• Eurozone industrial production (June) and second estimate of Q2 GDP.
• Various Chinese data (loans, current account) and Japanese figures earlier in the week.

Geopolitical Events to Watch

Negotiations involving the US, Iran, and GCC states over access to/reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain the primary market driver for energy prices and broader risk sentiment. Recent reports include a vessel attack in the strait and Iranian statements conditioning reopening on sanctions relief and other concessions. Any concrete progress (or breakdown) on shipping flows or the related US-Iran framework could move oil, inflation expectations, and equities.

Broader Middle East developments and residual effects from earlier conflict continue to influence energy markets and global growth views. Other regional issues (Ukraine, South China Sea, etc.) are secondary for immediate market moves this week.

Bottom line

Markets will primarily trade off the US CPI print and any Hormuz-related headlines. Soft inflation would reinforce the post-weak-payrolls narrative of reduced near-term Fed tightening pressure; a hotter reading or escalation in the strait would reverse that. Canadian data is secondary but relevant for domestic growth signals ahead of next week’s CPI.