• Canada–U.S. trade tensions are likely to be the most important Canada-specific risk next week, particularly with new U.S. restrictions on some Canadian imports taking effect Sept. 29. Reuters
• Canada GDP for July is due Sept. 29 and will provide an important read on whether the domestic economy is slowing under tariff and rate pressure. Statistics Canada
• U.S. inflation and growth data on Sept. 30, followed by ISM Manufacturing Oct. 1 and the U.S. employment report Oct. 2, could materially change interest-rate expectations. Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Iran/Strait of Hormuz developments remain a major TSX swing factor because WTI is near US$90+ and negotiations over reopening the strait remain unresolved. Reuters
• Expect the largest sensitivity in energy, materials/gold, banks, industrials, autos and technology.

Key Events and Likely TSX Impact

Date	Factor	What to Watch	Potential TSX Impact
Mon. Sept. 28	Iran/Hormuz & oil	Diplomatic developments, shipping flows, Saudi/Houthi attacks	Energy: CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE most sensitive. Escalation → oil higher; credible reopening agreement → oil lower
Tues. Sept. 29	Canada GDP – July	Growth versus June and advance August estimate	Weak GDP → banks/consumer/industrials pressured; may strengthen expectations for easier BoC policy
Tues. Sept. 29	New U.S. restrictions on Canadian products	Implementation and any Canadian response	Negative for exposed manufacturers/exporters; trade uncertainty also affects CAD and banks
Tues. Sept. 29	U.S. JOLTS	Labour demand and job openings	Weak labour data → lower yields potentially positive for tech/gold; strong data can support higher rates
Wed. Sept. 30	U.S. PCE inflation	Core inflation in particular	Higher inflation → yields/rate expectations up; pressure on tech and rate-sensitive sectors
Wed. Sept. 30	U.S. Q2 GDP final estimate	Growth revisions and corporate profits	Strong growth supports cyclicals but could reinforce higher-for-longer rates
Thurs. Oct. 1	U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI	New orders, prices paid, employment	Important for industrials, materials and broader growth expectations
Fri. Oct. 2	U.S. jobs report	Payrolls, unemployment, wages	Probably the week’s biggest scheduled market catalyst; can move rates, CAD/USD, gold and equities

Canada’s September Labour Force Survey is not due next week; Statistics Canada has scheduled it for Oct. 9. Statistics Canada

1. Canada–U.S. Tariff War — High Priority

The U.S. administration said on Sept. 25 that it was comfortable allowing the current dispute with Canada to continue. New restrictions on certain Canadian products are scheduled to take effect Sept. 29, while threats of significantly higher tariffs on Canadian autos, parts and steel remain in the background. Reuters

TSX sensitivity:

• Negative: autos/parts, industrials, transportation and some consumer manufacturers.
• Banks: slower Canadian growth could raise credit concerns.
• CAD: further trade deterioration could weaken the Canadian dollar.
• Energy/mining: potentially relatively insulated depending on exemptions and commodity prices.

The Bank of Canada has already warned that the latest tariffs could reduce Canadian Q4 growth below its earlier projection. Reuters

Watch: any new negotiations, retaliatory Canadian measures, or expansion of U.S. restrictions.

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2. Canada GDP — Sept. 29

Statistics Canada is scheduled to report July real GDP by industry, together with an advance indication for August. Statistics Canada

This becomes more important because the market is trying to determine whether Canada can maintain growth while absorbing:

• tariffs;
• higher borrowing costs;
• softer business investment;
• weaker trade with the U.S.

TSX implications

Weaker GDP

• Banks: modest negative
• Consumer discretionary: negative
• Industrials: negative
• Utilities/REITs: potentially positive if bond yields fall

Stronger GDP

• Banks/industrials: supportive
• CAD: potentially stronger
• But could reduce expectations for BoC easing.

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3. U.S. Inflation — Sept. 30

The U.S. BEA will release August Personal Income and Outlays, which contains the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measures, on Sept. 30. Bureau of Economic Analysis

This matters to the TSX because U.S. rate expectations affect global bond yields.

Higher-than-expected inflation

Likely direction:

U.S. yields ↑ → USD ↑ → growth/technology valuations pressured

Potential TSX effects:

• SHOP / technology: negative
• Gold: potentially negative from higher real yields
• Banks: mixed
• CAD: potentially weaker

Softer inflation

Could produce the opposite reaction:

yields ↓ → technology/gold potentially stronger.

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4. U.S. Employment Report — Oct. 2

The September U.S. employment report is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET Friday Oct. 2. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Watch three numbers:

Payroll growth + unemployment rate + wage growth.

August wage growth was 3.1% YoY, so the September report will be important for judging whether labour-related inflation pressures continue. Bureau of Labor Statistics

A strong jobs/wages report could push yields higher and pressure technology and gold.

A weaker jobs report could increase expectations for easier Fed policy, generally supportive of gold and rate-sensitive equities—but a very weak report could instead raise recession concerns.

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5. Oil, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz — Very High TSX Importance

This remains one of the largest short-term variables for the TSX.

WTI settled around US$92.41/bbl on Sept. 25, after falling roughly 2.3% that day as markets reacted to possible U.S.–Iran diplomacy. Reuters

However, negotiations remain unresolved. Iran has said reopening Hormuz depends on its conditions being met, while the U.S. rejected Iran’s latest proposal. Reuters

TSX transmission

Escalation / Hormuz disruption

WTI ↑
→ CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE potentially stronger
→ TSX Energy ↑
→ Canadian inflation risk ↑
→ transportation/consumer margins pressured

Diplomatic breakthrough / increased oil flows

WTI ↓
→ Energy stocks pressured
→ inflation expectations ↓
→ consumer/industrials potentially benefit.

Oil has been extremely sensitive to headlines: it moved almost +4% on Sept. 23, then about −2% Sept. 25 as diplomatic expectations changed. Reuters

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6. Gold

Gold will primarily respond next week to:

Fed expectations + U.S. yields + USD + Iran/Hormuz geopolitical risk.

The strongest combination for gold would generally be:

falling yields + weaker USD + increased geopolitical stress.

Potential TSX names:

AEM, WPM, FNV, ABX

Conversely, stronger U.S. economic data combined with higher yields could create short-term pressure on gold and gold equities.

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Sector Watch for Sept. 28–Oct. 2

TSX Sector	Main Driver	Next-Week Bias Driver
Energy	WTI / Iran / Hormuz	Highest geopolitical sensitivity
Materials/Gold	Gold, USD, yields	Fed/data + safe-haven demand
Technology	U.S. yields	PCE + payrolls
Financials	Canada growth/rates	GDP + tariff effects
Industrials	Trade + economic growth	Canada–U.S. tariffs + ISM
Consumer Discretionary	Rates/trade	Weak GDP or tariffs negative
Utilities/REITs	Bond yields	Lower yields generally supportive

Three Scenarios

Bull case for TSX: Iran tensions ease without collapsing oil, U.S. inflation moderates, employment remains stable, Canadian GDP holds up and tariff escalation pauses.

Base case: continued tariff uncertainty, WTI remains volatile around current elevated levels, U.S. economic data remains firm and the TSX trades with substantial sector rotation rather than a broad directional move.

Bear case: Canada–U.S. trade tensions escalate while U.S. inflation/jobs remain strong enough to push yields higher, or Middle East conflict intensifies sharply enough to produce another oil/inflation shock.

What Would Disprove These Views

A credible U.S.–Iran agreement reopening Hormuz would sharply reduce the current energy-risk thesis. A Canada–U.S. trade settlement would materially improve the outlook for Canadian industrials and exporters. Conversely, unexpectedly weak U.S. employment combined with rapidly falling economic indicators would shift the dominant concern from inflation toward recession.

Most important items to monitor next week: 1) Canada–U.S. tariffs, 2) Hormuz/WTI, 3) U.S. PCE inflation, 4) U.S. jobs report, 5) Canada GDP.