Oct 1/26: TSX mid-day performance

Down ~240 points (~0.7%) to ~34,996 at midday, extending a three-day slide. Yesterday it closed at 35,236, down 224 points (-0.63%), its third straight losing day and lowest close since late July.

Reasons:

  • Global bond rout. The US 10-year is near 5.3% and the 30-year at ~5.64%, the highest since 2002; Canadian yields are near multi-year highs. Financials (the index’s biggest weight) fell 1.7% on credit-quality and loan-growth concerns.
  • Oil-driven inflation fears. Oil rose 2%+ after China suspended refined-fuel exports; Brent sits near $103 with US-Iran tensions unresolved (Trump denied reports he’d ease sanctions). Higher oil = “rates higher for longer” worries.
  • Weak domestic data. Canada’s September manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.5 from 53, a six-month low; recent GDP data was subdued.
  • Trade war escalation. A new US ban on multiple Canadian imports took effect, following Canada’s retaliatory tariffs earlier in September; the loonie is around 70.2 US cents.

Partial offsets: energy +0.7% on higher crude, tech +2.9% (Micron’s blockbuster earnings lifted the group), and First Quantum +3.1% after Panama recommended talks to reopen the Cobre Panama mine. Softer-than-expected US PCE inflation (3.4% vs 3.7% expected) cooled bets on another Fed hike, which helped gold and miners early, though materials still faded 1.2% by midday.

Note: session is still open, so these are intraday figures, not the final close.

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