Oil prices fall after U.S. and China reach trade deal framework

Oil prices fell on Monday, pressured by skepticism that a U.S. and Chinese trade deal framework would immediately boost oil demand and after Iraq’s oil minister confirmed an oilfield fire had not affected the OPEC member’s oil exports.

Brent crude futures were down 32 cents, or nearly 0.5%, to $65.62 a barrel at 1015 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 30 cents, also about 0.5%, to $61.20.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday U.S. and Chinese officials had hashed out a “substantial framework” for a trade deal that could avoid 100% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and achieve a deferral of China’s rare-earth export controls in trade talks this week.

This boosted global stock markets on Monday, while safe-haven gold and bonds retreated, along with oil.

Demand concerns

“Oil market participants are much more skeptical of trade deals than their equity counterparts. A bright negotiating atmosphere does not immediately mean demand,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans.

Concerns over lackluster demand have weighed on the market, with Brent falling to its lowest since May earlier this month, but renewed sanctions on Russia from the U.S. along with stronger-than-expected U.S. demand have helped buoy prices.

“The hope for bulls is that U.S. consumption continues to recover, otherwise it seems the drift lower seen so far today is likely to intensify,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Bank.

Meanwhile Iraq, OPEC’s biggest overproducer, was in negotiations over the size of its quota within its available capacity of 5.5 million barrels per day, oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said at an oil conference on Monday.

OPEC and its allies have changed course this year by reversing previous production cuts to regain market share, helping to keep a lid on oil prices.

The fire at Iraq’s Zubair oilfield on Sunday did not affect exports from the country, the country’s oil minister added.

Last week, Brent and WTI rose 8.9% and 7.7%, respectively, on stepped-up U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia.

“There are likely some continued challenges for Russian oil to enter the market, but it depends on how sanctions will be enforced,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.