Recent Banks Sell Off & Next Week Forecast (Mar 9-Mar 13)

The Canadian banks (Financials) represent roughly 30% of the TSX. Last week’s sell-off was a “technical breakdown” for several of them, moving them from “Buy” trends into “Neutral/Sell” territory as bond yields spiked.

Here are the specific support levels and “pain points” for the Big Five heading into next week (March 9–13, 2026).

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3 Red Flags to Watch Next Week

1. The $100 Level (CM & BNS): Both CIBC and Scotiabank are dancing around the $100 mark. Psychologically, if they settle decisively below $100 for more than two sessions, retail “stop-loss” orders usually trigger, accelerating the slide.
2. TD’s Relative Weakness: TD is the “canary in the coal mine.” It has the most aggressive sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages. If TD breaks $94.50, it likely drags the entire sector down.
3. Friday’s Jobs Data (March 13): * The Trap: If Canadian jobs come in strong (>25k), the 10-year yield will likely jump toward 3.50%.
   • The Result: This makes bank “funding costs” higher and hurts the valuation of their dividend yields. In this scenario, expect the “2nd Support” levels above to be tested by Friday afternoon.

The “Pain Point” Summary

The “Danger Zone” for the TSX Financials Index is a 2% further drop from here. If the sector aggregate falls another 2%, most of these stocks will hit “Value Support” where institutional buyers (pension funds) typically step in. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower.