Things To Look Out For Week Ending July 10, 2026

Summary

• Main TSX driver for week ending Friday, July 10, 2026: Canada’s June employment report on July 10 at 8:30 ET; a strong print could lift banks/consumer cyclicals but raise rate-risk, while a weak print could support gold/defensives but hurt growth sentiment.
• U.S. Fed minutes on July 8 are the key external macro event; markets are looking for confirmation that the weaker U.S. labour data reduced near-term Fed hike risk.
• Materials led the TSX last week as gold and copper rallied; if metals hold, miners remain the highest-beta support for the index.
• Energy is the main swing risk: WTI was around US$68.78 and Brent US$71.94 on July 3, with prices pressured by easing Hormuz supply concerns and possible OPEC+ supply increases.
• TSX setup: near-record levels after closing 35,274.84 on July 3, so upside needs confirmation from metals, Canadian jobs, and Fed-rate expectations; disappointment could trigger profit-taking.

Key Drivers

1. Canada jobs report — July 10

This is the most important domestic event for the TSX this week.

Result	Likely TSX impact	Sector impact
Strong jobs, lower unemployment	Mixed to positive	Banks, insurers, consumer discretionary positive; rate-sensitive REITs/utilities may lag
Weak jobs, higher unemployment	Mixed to negative	Gold miners and defensives may outperform; banks and cyclicals may weaken
In-line jobs	Neutral	TSX likely follows commodities and U.S. Fed signals

May employment was strong: Canada added 87,800 jobs and unemployment fell to 6.6%, beating expectations. That makes the June report important because markets will test whether May was a rebound or a one-off.

2. U.S. Fed minutes — July 8

The Fed minutes matter because TSX valuation is sensitive to U.S. bond yields, the Canadian dollar, gold, and global risk appetite.

Recent U.S. payrolls were weak: June nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000, below expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. Markets interpreted this as reducing the probability of a near-term Fed hike.

TSX read-through:

Fed tone	TSX effect
Less hawkish	Positive for gold, tech, utilities, REITs; supportive for TSX multiple
Still hawkish	Negative for gold and rate-sensitive stocks; banks may hold up better
Unclear	More volatility; TSX follows commodities

3. Gold and copper momentum

The TSX rally into July 3 was heavily supported by gold and copper. Reuters reported that the TSX closed at a two-week high on July 3, with mining shares leading as gold and copper gained on lower Fed-hike expectations.

Watch:

• Gold above recent support keeps AEM, WPM, FNV, ABX-type names supported.
• Copper strength supports base metals and industrial cyclicals.
• A stronger U.S. dollar or hawkish Fed minutes would pressure both.

4. Oil, Hormuz, and OPEC+

Energy is the risk to the upside and downside. Oil has eased as U.S.-Iran peace efforts and partial reopening of Hormuz reduced supply fear. Reuters reported Brent at US$71.94 and WTI at US$68.78 on July 3, with prices nearly unchanged for the week.

OPEC+ is also expected to consider another output-target increase for August, reportedly around 188,000 barrels/day, which could cap crude prices if demand remains soft.

Oil move	TSX impact
WTI rebounds above US$72	Positive for CNQ, SU, IMO, energy weighting
WTI stays US$67–70	Neutral to mild negative for energy
WTI breaks below US$65	Negative for TSX energy; could offset materials strength

5. Early U.S. earnings season

The U.S. Q2 earnings season begins with companies such as Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo. This matters indirectly for the TSX because it affects North American risk appetite and consumer-demand assumptions. Reuters noted investors are watching early earnings for signs of consumer resilience and whether the rally can broaden beyond tech.

Data & Evidence

Date	Event / Data	Why it matters for TSX
Mon, July 6	U.S. final services PMI; ISM services	Affects U.S. growth expectations, yields, CAD/USD, cyclicals
Wed, July 8	U.S. wholesale inventories; FOMC minutes; consumer credit	Fed-rate expectations and credit conditions
Thu, July 9	U.S. existing home sales	Read-through to rates, consumer balance sheet, banks
Fri, July 10	Canada employment report; building permits	Direct impact on BoC expectations, banks, housing-linked equities
All week	Oil, gold, copper	Direct impact on TSX energy/materials weighting

Sources: Scotiabank economic calendar and Reuters market reports.

Valuation Logic

The TSX is close to record territory, so the market needs earnings or rate support to justify further upside. The short-term valuation logic is simple:

Driver	Valuation effect
Lower Fed/BoC rate expectations	Higher acceptable P/E multiples; supports gold, tech, defensives
Strong commodities	Higher earnings expectations for materials/energy
Weak oil but strong gold/copper	Mixed TSX effect; materials offset energy
Strong Canada jobs + sticky inflation concern	Could cap multiple expansion
Weak jobs + falling yields	Supports duration-sensitive sectors but hurts banks/cyclicals

Risks

• Hawkish Fed minutes: could reverse last week’s gold/mining-led TSX gain.
• Oil downside: easing Hormuz risk plus OPEC+ supply increases could pressure TSX energy.
• Canada jobs disappointment: would challenge domestic growth assumptions and pressure banks/consumer names.
• Profit-taking: TSX is near record levels after a strong July 3 close.
• U.S. earnings miss: early signs of weak consumer demand could hurt cyclicals and sentiment.

Scenarios for Week Ending July 10

Scenario	Probability view	TSX direction	Conditions
Bull	Moderate	+0.5% to +1.5%	Canada jobs stable, Fed minutes not hawkish, gold/copper firm, WTI holds near US$70
Base	Highest	-0.5% to +0.5%	Mixed macro, metals consolidate, oil range-bound, no major geopolitical shock
Bear	Moderate	-1.0% to -2.0%	Fed minutes hawkish, Canada jobs weak or inflationary, oil breaks lower, miners reverse

What Would Disprove the Base Case

• Gold and copper sell off despite stable Fed expectations.
• WTI drops below roughly US$65, dragging energy lower.
• Canada jobs report shows renewed labour-market weakness after May’s rebound.
• Fed minutes revive July/September hike fears.
• TSX fails to hold the July 3 breakout level and broad market breadth weakens.

Actionable Takeaways

• Watch Friday July 10, 8:30 ET first: Canada jobs will likely set the domestic tone.
• For sector rotation: materials > financials > energy if gold/copper stay firm and oil remains capped.
• A hawkish Fed-minutes surprise would likely pressure gold miners, tech, REITs, and utilities first.
• Energy needs oil stability; easing Hormuz risk is no longer clearly bullish for TSX energy.
• Near-record TSX levels make the index more sensitive to negative surprises than it was during the June pullback.