TSX ended the week down ~3.7% to ~33,084, the worst week in over a month, largely due to geopolitical risk and inflation concerns

Here is the commentary on what to watch next week,

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1. The “War Premium” in Energy

• The Situation: WTI Crude spiked to $90.90/bbl on Friday due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Next Week’s Risk: We are in “headline trading” mode. If tensions show any sign of de-escalation, expect a rapid $5–$8 “air pocket” drop in oil. Conversely, if infrastructure damage is confirmed, $95+ is the next target.
• TSX Impact: Energy makes up ~16% of the index. Without the oil spike, the TSX would have likely dropped closer to 5% last week rather than 3.7%. If oil retreats, the TSX loses its only “green” shield.

2. Rate-Sensitive “Bleed” (Financials & REITs)

• The Problem: Higher oil = stickier inflation. This has crushed hopes for an aggressive Bank of Canada (BoC) cutting cycle.
• Watch the Yields: The Canadian 10-year bond yield is hovering around 3.38%. If this climbs toward 3.5% next week, the Financials (the TSX’s largest weight at ~30%) will face continued selling pressure.
• Key Date: Watch the Friday (March 13) Canadian Employment Report. A “too strong” jobs report will solidify a “higher-for-longer” stance for the BoC’s March 18 meeting.

3. The Safe-Haven Pivot (Materials)

• The Opportunity: Materials (~20% of TSX) are currently a split story. Gold is surging on “flight to safety,” while industrial metals (Copper) are struggling with global growth fears.
• The Play: Look for outperformance in gold miners (ABX, AEM) to act as a hedge if the broader index continues to slide.

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Executive Watchlist: March 9–13

Catalyst	Metric to Watch	Impact Threshold
Crude Oil (WTI)	$85.00	A break below this levels energy support; TSX likely tests 32,500.
US Core PCE	Friday Release	Any surprise above 3.1% kills the “soft landing” narrative globally.
CAD Employment	Friday (8:30 AM)	>25k jobs added = hawkish BoC = Banks/REITs underperform.
Gold	$2,200+ (Spot)	Sustained levels here will keep the Materials sector from collapsing.

The Bottom Line

The TSX is technically oversold, but there is no “buy the dip” catalyst yet. Expect a “risk-off” start to the week. The index is looking for a floor; unless oil holds $90, that floor is likely lower than current levels.