1. Economic Events To Watch

A. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday, June 5)

Highest impact event of the week.

Why it matters:

• Determines expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
• Influences bond yields.
• Impacts risk appetite globally.
• Often drives TSX direction for several days.

TSX Impact

If Jobs Strong	If Jobs Weak
Banks ↑	Utilities ↑
Industrials ↑	Gold ↑
Technology ↑	REITs ↑
Gold ↓	Bond-sensitive sectors ↑

Stocks most sensitive:

• Royal Bank of Canada
• Toronto-Dominion Bank
• Shopify
• Kinaxis

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B. Canadian Labour Market

The labour market remains a concern.

Recent data showed:

• rising unemployment,
• slowing hiring,
• weaker employment growth.

TSX Impact

Positive:

• Supports lower interest rates.

Negative:

• Signals weaker consumer spending.
• Negative for discretionary retailers.

Watch:

• Canadian Tire Corporation
• Loblaw Companies
• Alimentation Couche-Tard

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C. Bank of Canada Expectations

Markets increasingly expect the Bank of Canada to remain cautious after weak GDP data. The next BoC meeting is June 10, so investors will be positioning ahead of it all week.

Beneficiaries

• Banks
• Utilities
• REITs
• Telecoms

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2. Geopolitical Events To Watch

A. USMCA Trade Negotiations

The U.S. and Mexico have begun discussions on revisions to USMCA, with Canada expected to be drawn into negotiations over the coming weeks. Automotive content rules, steel, aluminum and supply chains are key issues.

TSX Exposure

Most exposed:

• Canadian National Railway
• Canadian Pacific Kansas City
• Magna International

Bullish:

• Constructive negotiations.

Bearish:

• New tariff threats.

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B. Middle East / Oil

Markets continue to monitor:

• Iran developments,
• Strait of Hormuz shipping,
• ceasefire implementation.

Recent progress on a ceasefire reduced oil prices, but risks remain elevated.

TSX Impact

If oil > US$95:

• Energy sector likely leads.

If oil < US$85:

• Energy underperforms.
• Consumer and transportation sectors benefit.

Watch:

• Canadian Natural Resources
• Suncor Energy
• Imperial Oil
• Enbridge

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C. China Economic Data

Manufacturing PMI releases from China are important for commodity demand expectations. Weak data would pressure industrial metals and resource names.

TSX Impact

Affected sectors:

• Copper
• Base metals
• Materials

Watch:

• Teck Resources
• First Quantum Minerals
• Lundin Mining

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TSX Sector Scorecard For The Week

Sector	Outlook
Gold	Bullish
Utilities	Bullish
Telecom	Bullish
Banks	Neutral to Bullish
Energy	Neutral (oil dependent)
Consumer Staples	Neutral
Consumer Discretionary	Neutral to Bearish
Industrials	Trade-headline dependent
Technology	U.S. jobs dependent
Materials	China-data dependent

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Key Levels To Watch

TSX Composite

• Resistance: ~35,000
• Major Resistance: ~35,500
• Support: ~34,250
• Major Support: ~33,750

WTI Crude

• Bullish above: US$90
• Strongly bullish above: US$95

Gold

• Bullish above: US$4,400/oz
• Strong breakout above: US$4,500/oz

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Most Important TSX Catalysts This Week (Ranked)

1. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (June 5)
2. Middle East / Oil developments
3. USMCA / tariff headlines
4. China PMI data
5. Bank of Canada rate expectations ahead of June 10 meeting

Base Case (60% Probability)

• TSX trades sideways to modestly higher.
• Gold remains firm.
• Banks stabilize.
• Energy consolidates.
• Investors position cautiously ahead of the June 10 Bank of Canada decision.