Author: Consultant

  • Tech AI spending may approach $700 billion this year, but the blow to cash raises red flags

    Key Points

    • Tech’s megacaps announced major increases in capex for 2026, with the four hyperscalers now expecting combined spending of close to $700 billion.
    • Reaching those numbers is going to mean a big drop in free cash flow, with Amazon projected to turn negative this year.
    • “If you’re going to pour all this money into AI, it’s going to reduce your free cash flow,” said Longbow Asset Management CEO Jake Dollarhide

    AlphabetMicrosoftMeta and Amazon are expected to spend nearly $700 billion combined this year to fuel their AI build-outs.

    For investors who love cash above all else, some warning signs may be flashing.

    With the heart of tech earnings season wrapping up this week, Wall Street has a clearer picture of how the artificial intelligence race is poised to accelerate in 2026. The four hyperscalers are now projected to increase capital expenditures by more than 60% from the historic levels reached in 2025, as they load up on high-priced chips, build new mammoth facilities and buy the networking technology to connect it all.

    Getting to those kinds of numbers is going to require sacrifice in the form of free cash flow. Last year, the four biggest U.S. internet companies generated a combined $200 billion in free cash flow, down from $237 billion in 2024.

    The more dramatic drop appears to be ahead, as companies invest heavily up front, promising future returns on investment. That means margin pressures, less cash generation in the near term and the potential need to further tap the equity and debt markets. Alphabet held a $25 billion bond sale in November, and its long-term debt quadrupled in 2025 to $46.5 billion.

    Amazon, which on Thursday said it expects to spend $200 billion this year, is now looking at negative free cash flow of almost $17 billion in 2026, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, while Bank of America analysts see a deficit of $28 billion. In a filing with the SEC on Friday, Amazon let investors know that it may seek to raise equity and debt as its build-out continues.

    Despite beating on revenue for the quarter, Amazon saw its stock sink almost 6% on Friday, bringing its drop for the year to 9%. Microsoft is down 17%, the most in the group, while Alphabet and Meta are up slightly.

    While Amazon laid out the most aggressive spending plan among the megacaps, Alphabet wasn’t far behind. The company, which is investing in its cloud infrastructure business as well as its Gemini models, sees up to $185 billion in capex this year. Morgan Stanley managing director Brian Nowak told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” that he’s projecting even more spend in coming years, with Alphabet shelling out up to $250 billion in 2027.

    Pivotal Research projects Alphabet’s free cash flow to plummet almost 90% this year to $8.2 billion from $73.3 billion in 2025. Analysts at Mizuho wrote in a report that bearish investors may look at the potential doubling of capex this year as “leaving limited FCF in 2026 with uncertain” return on investment.

    Still, the analysts remain bullish and all kept their buy recommendations on the respective stocks. Longbow Asset Management CEO Jake Dollarhide is right there with them. He counts Amazon as the biggest holding in his portfolio, followed by Alphabet at fourth and Microsoft ninth.

    “If you’re going to pour all this money into AI, it’s going to reduce your free cash flow,” Dollarhide said. “Do they have to go to the debt markets or short-term financing to find the optimal mix of equity and debt? Yeah. That’s why CEOs and CFOs are paid what they’re paid.”

    ‘Somewhat shocking’

    Analysts at Barclays now see a drop of almost 90% in Meta’s free cash flow, after the social media company said last week that capex this year will reach as high as $135 billion. They kept their overweight rating even as they forecast an even tougher cash position the next two years.

    “We are now modeling negative FCF for ’27 and ’28, which is somewhat shocking to us but likely what we eventually see for all companies in the AI infrastructure arms race,” the analysts wrote in a note after earnings.

    When Meta CFO Susan Li was asked on the earnings call about capital allocation and the company’s plans for future buybacks, she responded that the “highest order priority is investing our resources to position ourselves as a leader in AI.”

    At Microsoft, where capex is going up but at a slower rate than at its tech peers, Barclays estimates that free cash flow will slide by 28% this year before popping back up in 2027.

    Representatives from Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta declined to comment.

    A big advantage the tech industry’s most-valuable companies have over high-flying AI upstarts like OpenAI and Anthropic is that they’ve accumulated a massive cash pile in recent years. As of the end of the latest quarter, the four leaders had a total of over $420 billion in cash and equivalents.

    Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a report on Thursday about Alphabet that the company’s infrastructure build-out is creating a “meaningful moat.” It’s a sentiment shared broadly by industry executives and experts who view AI as a generational opportunity with revenue reaching will into the trillions.

    Businesses today are testing and building new AI agents to handle all sorts of tasks, including developing applications with just a few text prompts. All of that advancement requires hefty amounts of compute, which the cloud providers say is creating insatiable demand for their technology.

    “Between what’s happening in business and enterprise — they are all building on these AI companies Google, Meta, Amazon,” Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman told CNBC in an interview “These are core technologies.”  

    Morgan Stanley’s Nowak said Alphabet is “seeing a lot of signal on return when it comes to Google Cloud, return on Google search and YouTube.” And Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on his company’s earnings call that growth at Amazon Web Services was “the fastest we’ve seen in 13 quarters.”

    But plenty of unknowns remain, and some skeptics worry that a slipup at OpenAI, which has announced over $1.4 trillion in AI deals, could lead to a market contagion because so much of the AI industry’s growth prospects are tied to the ChatGPT creator.

    “The truth is, we’re at the dawn of a new technology shift and it’s really hard to know the sustainability of top line,” Michael Nathanson, co-founder of equity research firm MoffettNathanson, told CNBC. “We’re entering new times and predicting the top line has gotten a lot harder. There’s a ton of surprising going on.”

    — CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa, Jordan Novet, Annie Palmer and Jonathan Vanian contributed to this report.

  • ARC RESOURCES LTD. REPORTS YEAR-END 2025 RESULTS AND RESERVES

    Fourth Quarter Results

    • Fourth quarter production averaged a record 408,382 boe (1) per day (58 per cent natural gas and 42 per cent crude oil and liquids (2) ), which included 118,898 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate production, the highest in ARC’s 30-year history. Production per share (3) increased 10 per cent compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
    • ARC generated funds from operations of $874 million (4) ($1.52 per share (4) ) and cash flow from operating activities of $668 million ($1.16 per share (4) ).
      • ARC realized an average natural gas price of $3.77 per Mcf (4) , which is $1.43 greater than the average AECO 7A Monthly Index price.
    • Free funds flow was $415 million (4) ($0.72 per share (4) ), and net income was $260 million or $0.45 per share. ARC distributed $257 million ($0.45 per share) to shareholders through the base dividend and share repurchases, and allocated the remainder to debt reduction.
      • ARC declared dividends of $120 million ($0.21 per share (4) ) and repurchased 5.1 million common shares for $137 million under its normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”).
    • ARC invested $459 million in capital expenditures (4) during the fourth quarter, which contributed to total capital expenditures of $1.9 billion in 2025, which was within Company guidance.
    • Subsequent to December 31, 2025, ARC executed an agreement to purchase assets in the Kakwa area of Alberta for approximately $160 million. The transaction is expected to close in February 2026.
    • Net debt (4) decreased by $191 million compared to the third quarter of 2025. As at December 31, 2025, net debt was $2.9 billion or 0.9 times funds from operations (4) .

    Year-end 2025 Highlight

    • ARC generated record annual average production of 374,336 boe per day (59 per cent natural gas and 41 per cent crude oil and liquids), an increase of 10 per cent per share compared to 2024.
    • ARC recognized funds from operations of $3.2 billion ($5.48 per share), and generated free funds flow of $1.3 billion ($2.20 per share) in 2025.
      • ARC distributed 75 per cent of free funds flow to shareholders through its base dividend and share repurchases. The remainder was allocated to debt reduction, allowing ARC to further strengthen its balance sheet.
      • ARC increased its base dividend for the fifth consecutive year. ARC’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) approved an 11 per cent increase to the quarterly dividend, from $0.19 to $0.21 per share ($0.84 per share, per annum).
    • ARC’s annual average realized natural gas price of $3.51 per Mcf was 89 per cent or $1.65 per Mcf greater than the average AECO 7A Monthly Index price. This marks the 13th consecutive year that ARC’s market diversification strategy resulted in a realized natural gas price that exceeded AECO by 20 per cent or greater.
      • Natural gas curtailments at Sunrise due to low natural gas prices during the third and fourth quarters of 2025 reduced full-year average production by approximately 12,000 boe per day (approximately 70 MMcf per day). The curtailments preserved resource for periods when prices were higher, and allowed ARC to defer approximately $50 million of capital.
    • In July 2025, ARC completed the acquisition of condensate-rich Montney assets in the Kakwa area of Alberta from Strathcona Resources Ltd. in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $1.6 billion (5) (the “Kakwa Acquisition”).
    • ARC executed an agreement for the earning and development of up to 36 new contiguous sections in the Montney with the Tsaa Dunne Za Energy Limited Partnership – a limited partnership owned by Halfway River First Nation.
    • In March 2025, ARC announced a long-term sale and purchase agreement with ExxonMobil LNG Asia Pacific (“EMLAP”), an ExxonMobil affiliate, for the supply of liquefied natural gas (“LNG”). Under the agreement, EMLAP will purchase ARC’s LNG offtake from the Cedar LNG Project, approximately 1.5 million tonnes per annum at international pricing. The agreement commences with commercial operations at the Cedar LNG Facility, expected in late 2028.

    2025 Reserves (1)(6)

    https://www.barchart.com/story/news/58667/arc-resources-ltd-reports-year-end-2025-results-and-reserves

  • A comparison of TSX technology stocks vs. U.S. tech stocks,

    1) TSX Tech vs. U.S. Tech — Objective Comparison

    A. Market Size & Weight

    • U.S. Tech: Dominates global markets; tech often accounts for ~25–35% of total market cap of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes.
    • TSX Tech: Represents a much smaller portion of the Canadian market. Even broad Canadian tech ETFs list only ~25–30 names with key exposure concentrated in a handful of companies. The sector weight is much lighter relative to the entire index.

    Implication: U.S. tech has a greater overall influence on index performance and global innovation trends.


    B. Business Models & Profitability

    • U.S. Tech Leaders: Often platform-driven, with strong network effects (e.g., cloud computing, AI, operating systems).
    • TSX Tech: More focused on enterprise software, services, supply-chain tech, and niche technology solutions. Recurring revenue is common, but global network effects are generally weaker.

    Profitability:

    • Many U.S. tech giants have high margins, global moats, and strong cash flow.
    • TSX tech firms often focus on software services or specialized solutions where scale and global reach are more limited.

    C. Valuation Profiles

    Tech valuations depend heavily on earnings growth expectations:

    • U.S. Tech: Large names like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft trade at high multiples due to growth and strong earnings power, though some valuation compression has occurred in 2025 as investors scrutinize growth assumptions.
    • TSX Tech: Valuations tend to be more modest than U.S. big-tech averages. For example, industry PE ratios indicate optimism in Canada but still remain below speculative highs.

    Overall:

    • U.S. tech valuations reflect global leadership and future growth premia.
    • TSX valuations reflect smaller market scale and closer ties to Canadian revenue drivers.

    D. Growth vs. Stability

    FeatureTSX TechU.S. Tech
    Revenue GrowthModerateStrong to explosive
    VolatilityMedium–HighHigh
    Profit MarginsModerateHigher
    Global ExposureLowerVery high
    Influence on Broad MarketLimitedMajor driver

    Conclusion:
    U.S. tech stocks tend to be growth engines with global scale, whereas TSX tech stocks are smaller-cap, niche performers — often profitable services firms but with more muted growth outlooks compared to U.S. counterparts.


    2) Rank: TSX Tech Stocks by Quality vs. Valuation

    This ranking reflects quality metrics (e.g., profitability, recurring revenue, moat) relative to valuation multiples (e.g., P/E, forward earnings) — a framework analysts use to compare stocks.

    Note: Actual multiples can vary over time; current snapshot comes from commonly cited data (e.g., company filings, industry trackers). Numbers are illustrative rather than exact.


    A. High Quality / Better Valuation

    1. Constellation Software
      • Quality: Global SaaS/IT services with strong recurring revenues
      • Valuation: Relatively rich but supported by long runway and profitability
      • Analyst View: Best risk-adjusted quality among TSX tech
    2. Descartes Systems Group (DSG.TO)
      • Quality: Established logistics software, consistent EBITDA growth
      • Valuation: ~28× forward earnings (reasonable given growth)
      • Growth: Analysts expect ~20%+ EPS growth in coming years
    3. Shopify Inc. (SHOP.TO)
      • Quality: One of Canada’s most recognized tech exports
      • Valuation: High multiples due to growth expectations
      • Risk: Growth is strong, but valuation premium is significant

    B. Mid Quality / Mid Valuation

    1. Topicus.com Inc. (TOI.TO)
      • Quality: Vertical software acquirer strategy
      • Valuation: High P/E but revenue growth narrative intact
    2. Celestica Inc. (CLS.TO)
      • Quality: Hardware & supply-chain exposure, AI infrastructure growth story
      • Valuation: Mid-range multiples tied to end-market strength
    3. TECSYS Inc. (TCS.TO)
      • Quality: More niche enterprise software
      • Valuation: Extremely high P/E (reflects low earnings base and growth expectation)

    C. Lower Quality / Mixed Valuation

    1. Telesat Corporation (TSAT.TO)
      • Quality: Satellite tech exposure; cyclical nature and cap intensity
      • Valuation: Lower P/E but riskier cash flows
    2. Smaller TSX/TSXV tech names
      • Many smaller Canadian tech names have limited earnings history and higher volatility.

    Objective Summary Table

    RankCompanyQualityValuationNotes
    1Constellation Software⭐⭐⭐⭐PremiumStrong profit + recurring
    2Descartes⭐⭐⭐☆FairSolid growth + reasonable
    3Shopify⭐⭐⭐☆RichHigh growth, rich valuation
    4Topicus⭐⭐☆RichGood niche, high multiple
    5Celestica⭐⭐☆MidHardware exposure
    6TECSYS⭐⭐Very RichSmall base, high PE
    7Telesat⭐☆Low/ValueRiskier earnings

    What This Tells Us (Neutral Conclusion)

    U.S. tech stocks generally offer higher growth potential and stronger global moats, reflected in higher valuations and larger market caps.
    TSX tech stocks offer more modest valuations and diversified income profiles, but with less embedded growth premium compared to U.S. tech.
    Quality vs. valuation ranking helps identify which TSX tech names offer better risk-adjusted fundamentals rather than pure growth narratives.

  • Fundamentals-driven explanation of technology stocks on the TSX,

    What “Technology” Means on the TSX

    On the Toronto Stock Exchange, the technology sector is structurally different from U.S. tech:

    • It is smaller, more concentrated, and less platform-driven
    • It is dominated by software, IT services, fintech, and e-commerce
    • There is very little hardware or semiconductor manufacturing
    • A handful of names account for most of the index weight

    As a result, TSX tech behaves less like NASDAQ tech and more like a growth-services sector.


    Core Characteristics of TSX Tech Stocks

    1. Business Models

    Most TSX tech companies fall into one of these categories:

    • Enterprise software / SaaS (recurring revenue, long sales cycles)
    • E-commerce enablement & platforms
    • IT services / consulting
    • Fintech & payments
    • Vertical-specific software (supply chain, logistics, HR, retail)

    They generally sell services, not physical products.


    2. Revenue & Profitability Profile

    • Many TSX tech firms do generate revenue, but:
      • Profitability is often thin or inconsistent
      • Cash flow is prioritized over aggressive expansion
    • Compared to U.S. peers:
      • Lower margins
      • Slower growth
      • Less pricing power

    This reflects Canada’s smaller domestic market and fewer global tech champions.


    3. Valuation Sensitivity

    TSX tech stocks are highly sensitive to interest rates because:

    • A large portion of value is based on future earnings
    • Higher rates compress valuation multiples
    • Lower rates expand multiples

    This makes the sector macro-driven, even when company fundamentals are unchanged.


    Why TSX Tech Has Been Volatile

    A. Interest Rate Environment

    • Rising rates (2022–2024) caused multiple compression
    • Even profitable companies saw share prices fall
    • Rate-cut expectations tend to drive sharp rebounds

    This volatility is structural, not company-specific.


    B. Earnings vs Expectations

    TSX tech stocks often decline not because:

    • Revenues are falling
      but because:
    • Growth is slower than previously priced in

    The sector is expectation-driven, not momentum-driven.


    C. Currency Exposure

    Many TSX tech firms:

    • Earn revenue in USD
    • Report in CAD

    This creates FX-driven earnings variability, which can:

    • Help margins when CAD is weak
    • Hurt comparability quarter-to-quarter

    Structural Strengths of TSX Tech

    Despite its challenges, the sector has real strengths:

    ✔ Recurring Revenue

    • High proportion of subscription or contract revenue
    • Better visibility than cyclical sectors

    ✔ Capital Discipline

    • Less “growth at all costs” behavior
    • Earlier focus on profitability than U.S. peers

    ✔ Global Niche Leaders

    • Several firms dominate specific verticals
    • Sticky customer relationships
    • High switching costs

    Structural Weaknesses of TSX Tech

    ✖ Limited Scale

    • Few companies reach true global platform status
    • Growth often plateaus earlier than U.S. peers

    ✖ Customer Concentration

    • Some firms rely on a small number of large clients
    • Creates earnings volatility

    ✖ Valuation Ceiling

    • Canadian tech rarely sustains extreme multiples
    • Institutional investors rotate out faster than in U.S. markets

    How TSX Tech Performs in a Portfolio

    From an asset-allocation perspective:

    RoleReality
    Growth engineModerate
    Dividend incomeLow
    Inflation hedgeWeak
    Rate-cut beneficiaryStrong
    VolatilityHigh

    TSX tech works best as:

    • A satellite allocation
    • Not a core defensive holding
    • Paired with financials, energy, or infrastructure

    Bottom Line (Unbiased View)

    TSX technology stocks are not broken, but they are structurally constrained.

    They:

    • Offer selective growth, not explosive growth
    • Require patience and valuation discipline
    • React strongly to rates, sentiment, and earnings expectations
    • Reward investors who focus on cash flow, balance sheets, and niche dominance

    This is a sector for analysis, not storytelling.

  • Calendar: Feb 9 – Feb 13

    Monday February 9

    China’s aggregate yuan financing, new yuan loans and foreign reserves

    Japan’s real cash earnings and bank lending

    (10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s market participants survey for Q4.

    Earnings include: Apollo Global Management Inc., Becton Dickinson and Co., Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., PrairieSky Royalty Ltd., Silvercorp Metals Inc.


    Tuesday February 10

    (6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for January.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for December. The Street is projecting a gain of 0.5 per cent from November and up 0.4 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. employment cost index for Q4. Consensus is a rise of 0.8 per cent from Q3 and 3.5 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for December.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for November.

    Earnings include: Allied Properties REIT, AstraZeneca PLC, Coca-Cola Co., Crombie REIT, Finning International Inc., First Capital Realty Inc., Ford Motor Co., Gilead Sciences Inc., Intact Financial Corp., Lyft Inc., Marriott International Inc., Robinhood Markets Inc., S&P Global Inc.; Spotify Technology SA, Toromont Industries Ltd.


    Wednesday February 11

    China’s CPI and PPI for January.

    Japanese markets closed

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for December.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls and revisions for January. Consensus is a rise of 70,000 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4 per cent.

    (1:30 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations for the Jan. 28 decision is released.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for January.

    Earnings include: AppLovin Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., Dayforce Inc., Kraft Heinz Co., Morguard REIT, Southern Copper Corp., T-Mobile US Inc.


    Thursday February 12

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Feb. 7. Estimate is 220,000, down 11,000 from the previous week.

    (8:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers joins fireside chat in Toronto.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for January. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 3.2 per cent.

    Earnings include: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Airbnb Inc., Air Canada, Applied Materials Inc., Bombardier Inc., CAE Inc., Canadian Apartment Properties REIT, Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., Definity Financial Corp., Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., Fortis Inc., H&R REIT, IGM Financial Inc., Keyera Corp., Mullen Group Ltd., New Gold Inc., Restaurant Brands International Inc.


    Friday February 13

    Euro zone’s real GDP and trade surplus

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for December. Estimate is a year-over-year decline of 8.5 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for January. Consensus is a rise of 0.3 per cent from December and up 2.5 per cent year-over-year.

    Earnings include: Colliers International Group Inc., Enbridge Inc., Magna International Inc., TC Energy Corp.

  • Saputo reports $220M profit in the third quarter, reversing last year’s $518M loss

    Saputo Inc. says its net earnings came in at $220 million during the third quarter, up from a loss of $518 million during the same period a year earlier.       

    The Montreal-based company attributed the swing in profit to the absence of an impairment charge recorded in its U.K. dairy division in the third quarter of last year. 

    On a per share basis, Saputo says its earnings amounted to 53 cents, up from a loss of $1.22 during the prior year quarter. 

    Saputo’s quarterly revenue came in at $4.89 billion, down from $4.99 billion a year earlier. 

    The company attributed the decline in revenue to lower U.S. dairy commodity pricing. 

    Saputo CEO Carl Colizza says in a news release that efficiencies from its modernized network drove robust cash generation during the quarter. 

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 5, 2026.

  • TTCS Is Driven by a Few Heavyweights

    Here’s a clean, data‑driven breakdown of which TTCS components are contributing the most to the index’s uptrend, using the freshest available component and weight information from the search results.

    📊 1. TTCS Is Driven by a Few Heavyweights

    The S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index is extremely top‑heavy. Based on the iShares XST ETF (which directly tracks TTCS), the top weights are:

    CompanyWeight in TTCSImpact on Index
    Loblaw (L)25.46%#1 driver — any move in L heavily influences TTCS
    Alimentation Couche‑Tard (ATD)25.36%#2 driver — nearly equal influence to Loblaw
    Metro (MRU)14.89%#3 driver — meaningful but smaller
    George Weston (WN)12.75%#4 driver — solid contributor
    Saputo (SAP)8.56%Moderate contributor
    Remaining 8 companies~13% combinedMinimal impact

    Together, L + ATD + MRU + WN = ~78% of the entire index.

    So the uptrend is overwhelmingly driven by four stocks.

    📈 2. Which Stocks Are Actually Rising?

    From the TradingView component snapshot:

    • Loblaw (L): Slight daily pullback in the snapshot, but long‑term trend remains strong.
    • Alimentation Couche‑Tard (ATD): Also showed a small daily dip, but its multi‑year trend is one of the strongest in the TSX.
    • Metro (MRU): Typically stable, defensive, and steadily rising.
    • George Weston (WN): Historically strong performer tied to Loblaw.
    • Saputo (SAP): More volatile, but improving after prior weakness.

    Even if one of these names dips on a given day, the multi‑month trend for the group is upward — and because they dominate the index, TTCS rises with them.

    🧩 3. Contribution Summary

    Here’s the real impact hierarchy:

    Major Drivers (≈80% of index movement)

    1. Loblaw (L) — largest weight, steady long‑term uptrend
    2. Alimentation Couche‑Tard (ATD) — strong multi‑year compounder
    3. Metro (MRU) — stable, defensive, consistent
    4. George Weston (WN) — benefits from Loblaw’s strength

    Secondary Driver

    1. Saputo (SAP) — smaller but still meaningful

    Minimal Contributors

    Everything else in TTCS combined contributes less than any one of the top two stocks.

    🎯 Bottom Line

    The TTCS uptrend is almost entirely explained by:

    • Loblaw (L)
    • Alimentation Couche‑Tard (ATD)
    • Metro (MRU)
    • George Weston (WN)

    These four names account for nearly 80% of the index and have been in sustained long‑term uptrends, pulling TTCS upward with them.

  • Global software, data firms slide as AI disruption fears compound jitters over $600-billion capex plans

    Global technology and data stocks slid again on Friday, as ​a rout showed no signs of abating ‍on worries over the impact of powerful new AI models on their business and the billions hyperscalers plan to spend on their tech roll out this year.

    The risks to ‍software and ​data and analytics firms following the release of a new plug-in from Anthropic’s Claude has jolted world markets this week, just as some of the so-called hyperscalers unveil plans to spend over US$600-billion on their various AI rollouts this year.

    Amazon shares dropped 8 per cent in premarket trading ⁠on Friday after the company’s hefty capital expenditure plans deepened investor worries over Big Tech’s AI spending spree.

    London-listed data and analytics firm RELX, meanwhile, slid almost 5 per cent, while Sage fell nearly 4 per cent and Experian fell over 2 per cent.

    Shares in London Stock Exchange Group also fell further and ‌was set for a second ‍straight week of steep losses. The stock is down 7 per cent this week.

    Europe’s Capgemini ‍fell 3 per cent and Wolters Kluwer was down nearly ‌4 per cent.

    This week’s drawdown in AI-exposed shares has weighed on broader equity ⁠markets.

    Global shares are on track for the worst week since November, down 1.6 per cent.

    The broad S&P 500 ​index is off 2 per cent this week, while U.S. software and data services companies have burned around US$1-trillion in market value since January 28 alone.

    “Fresh AI bubble fears are surfacing after big tech companies massively increased their capex spending for the year – about US$650-billion across the four ​hyperscalers who have reported earnings over the last fortnight,” said Neil Wilson, Saxo UK Investor Strategist, in a note.

    The rout has been particularly acute in India. Indian software exporters plunged another 2 per cent on Friday and looked set to end a tumultuous week that has seen US$22.5-billion in market value losses.

    India’s IT index has shed almost 7 per cent this week.

    Investor nerves over potential ⁠AI‑driven disruption are coinciding with a growing tendency to punish big tech firms ⁠for signaling even heavier spending on the technology.

    Google parent Alphabet also upped its spending plans on Thursday, sending ‌its stock down as much as 8 per cent intra-day though they ended Thursday largely flat. Shares were trading flat in premarket trading on Friday.

    “A recurring theme is emerging: both Alphabet and Amazon delivered strong underlying business performance, driven by better-than-expected growth in cloud. But that hasn’t been enough to distract markets from ‌their ballooning capital investment plans,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

  • Canada loses 24,800 jobs in January, unemployment rate dips to 6.5%

    Canada unexpectedly lost 24,800 jobs in January but the unemployment rate dipped to a 16-month low of 6.5 per cent as fewer people looked for work, Statistics Canada indicated on Friday.

    Analysts had forecast a gain of 7,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.8 per cent.

    Full-time employment in January rose by 44,900 jobs while part time employment fell by 69,700 positions.

    The unemployment rate – the lowest since the 6.5 per cent recorded in September, 2024 – fell across most major demographic groups, largely reflecting declines in the number of job searchers.

    The manufacturing sector lost 27,500 positions, most of them in the industrial heartland of Ontario, where some key industries have been hit by U.S. tariffs.

    Overall job losses in the manufacturing, educational services and public administration sectors outweighed gains in the information, business, agriculture and utilities sectors.

    Macklem says economy undergoing structural change, plays down chance of further rate cuts

    The Bank of Canada says the labour market is softening after the economy added a total of 181,000 new jobs from September through November. Canada created 10,100 jobs in December.

    The employment rate in January fell 0.1 percentage points to 60.8 per cent, the first such decline since August, 2025.

    The average hourly wage of permanent employees – a gauge closely tracked by the Bank of Canada to ascertain inflationary trends – dipped to a seven-month low of 3.3 per cent, down from the 3.7 per cent recorded in December.

    The central bank held its key policy rate steady at 2.25 per cent last week and said this was about the right level to keep inflation close to its 2-per-cent target. Money markets expect rates to stay on hold for the rest of the year.