Author: Consultant

Monday March 9

China’s CPI, PPI, foreign reserves, aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans

Japan’s real cash earnings and bank lending

Germany’s factory orders and industrial production

(11 a.m. ET) U.S. New York Fed’s one-year inflation expectations

Earnings include: Constellation Software Inc., Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co., Oracle Corp.

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Tuesday March 10

China’s trade surplus

Japan’s GDP and machine tool orders

Germany’s trade surplus and CPI

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for February.

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP Employment for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales. The Street expects an annualized rate decline of 1.2 per cent.

Earnings include: Altius Minerals Corp., CES Energy Solutions Corp., Franco-Nevada Corp., Peyto Exploration & Development Corp., Transcontinental Inc.

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Wednesday March 11

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for February. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.2 per cent month-over-month and 2.3 per cent year-over-year

Earnings include: Bird Construction Inc., Descartes Systems Group Inc., Freehold Royalties Ltd., Hammond Power Solutions Inc., Lumine Group Inc., Paramount Resources Ltd., Tourmaline Oil Corp., Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.

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Thursday March 12

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of March 7. Estimate is 215,000, up 2,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade balance for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for January. Consensus is a 4.6-per-cent decline on an annualized rate basis.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for January. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 4.3 er cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. quarterly services survey for Q4.

Earnings include: Adobe Systems Inc., Ballard Power Systems Inc., Empire Co. Ltd., Premium Brand Holdings Corp., Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

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Friday March 13

Euro zone’s industrial production.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s employment for February. Consensus is a gain of 10,000 jobs with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 per cent to $6.6 per cent and average hourly wages rising 3.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s capacity utilization for Q4.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for January. The Street is expecting month-over-month gains of 0.3 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for January. Consensus is a rise of 0.4 per cent from December and up 3.1 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable and core orders for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. GDP for Q4.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. job openings for January. Estimate is 6.75 million, up 208,000 from the previous month.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March.

Earnings include: Lithium Americas Corp., Neo Performance Materials Inc., Perpetua Resources Corp., Westshore Terminals Investment Corp.

Kinaxis ^® (TSX:KXS), a global leader in end-to-end supply chain orchestration, reported record results for its fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. All amounts are in U.S. dollars. All figures are prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards (IFRS) unless otherwise indicated.

“Our team delivered a record fourth quarter and fiscal 2025. The results demonstrate the growing need for organizations to manage unprecedented levels of volatility in demand and supply with Maestro, our market-leading AI-enabled supply chain planning, decision-making and orchestration platform,” said Razat Gaurav, chief executive officer at Kinaxis . “Our improved focus on large, global organizations that run complex supply chains is paying off, including new wins with leaders in semiconductors, data storage, oil and gas, among others. We also had a record year expanding with our installed base, reflecting enhanced focus and execution in that key go-to-market motion and a much broader set of capabilities in Maestro. Our customers are strategically partnering with Kinaxis to reimagine their supply chain planning, leverage state-of-the-art data and semantic architectures, and rapidly innovate with our composable agentic orchestration capabilities.”

Q4 2025 Highlights

$ USD thousands, except as otherwise indicated	Q4 2025	Q4 2024	Change
Total Revenue(constant currency 2 )	144,235140,786	123,935	16%14%
SaaS(constant currency 2 )	97,15394,974	81,856	19%16%
Subscription term licenses	1,716	1,592	8 %
Professional services	39,951	35,092	14 %
Maintenance and support	5,415	5,395	—%
Gross profit Margin	94,259 65%	75,102 61%	26%
Profit (loss) Per diluted share	19,501 $0.68	(16,316) $(0.58)	— (1)
Adjusted EBITDA 2 Margin	37,575 26%	31,462 25%	19%
Cash flows from operating activities	29,942	24,117	24%

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/569471/kinaxis-inc-reports-record-fourth-quarter-2025-results

 George Weston Ltd. (WNGRF) on Wednesday reported profit of $200.9 million in its fourth quarter.

On a per-share basis, the Toronto-based company said it had profit of 52 cents. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, were 87 cents per share.

The baked goods maker and parent of the conglomerate Loblaw posted revenue of $11.86 billion in the period.

For the year, the company reported profit of $817.3 million, or $2 per share. Revenue was reported as $46.17 billion.

Linamar Corp. reported net earnings of $110.7 million during the fourth quarter, up from a loss of $232.3 million during the same period a year earlier.

The company says its earnings amounted to $1.85 per diluted share, up from a net loss per diluted share of $3.78.

The Guelph, Ont.-based auto parts manufacturer says its sales totalled $2.52 billion during the period ended Dec. 31, up from $2.38 billion during the prior year quarter.

Linamar says the vast majority of its products into the U.S. continue to be free from tariffs, due to compliance with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement.

Linda Hasenfratz, Linamar’s executive chair, says distressed acquisitions continue to create opportunities for the company to strengthen its portfolio at reasonable costs.

In December of last year, Linamar closed its roughly $72-million acquisition of an iron casting plant in Germany.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 4, 2026.

• Nonfarm payrolls in February fell by 92,000, compared with the estimate for 50,000 and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. It was the third time in five months that the economy lost jobs.
• Health care, the primary growth driver in payrolls, saw a loss of 28,000, due largely to a strike at Kaiser Permanente that sidelined more than 30,000 workers in Hawaii and California.
• Wages rose more than expected. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both 0.1 percentage point above forecast.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html

Here’s a rundown of the key things to watch for when forecasting the TSX for the week of March 2–6, 2026:

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🇺🇸 U.S. Jobs Report (Friday, March 6) The first major event for global markets comes with February’s U.S. Employment Situation report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 6. These numbers have the power to jolt bond yields — and that usually spills over to impact the mood in TSX banks, tech, and commodity stocks. TS2

📉 Canada’s Economic Momentum Statscan data showed the economy shrank at a 0.6% annualized pace in Q4 2024, with 2025 growth easing back to 1.7% as firms cut inventories instead of stepping up production. The economy was “hardly thriving” given tariff and trade uncertainty. TS2 This soft backdrop heading into the week will weigh on rate-sensitive TSX sectors.

🔁 Tariff Policy Volatility Rapid shifts in U.S. tariff policy — including a proposed 15% across-the-board levy — are adding to business and investor uncertainty. Capital is rotating from high-multiple technology stocks toward tangible assets such as utilities, pipelines, and infrastructure. BNN Bloomberg

🏦 Bank Stocks & Sector Rotation Bay Street doubled down on its old standbys — banks and resources — earlier in the week, and that classic strategy delivered, with TD Bank and CIBC both beating profit expectations. TS2 Watch whether this momentum in bank earnings continues.

🛢️ Energy & Materials Sensitivity The sectors most exposed to tariffs in the near term are energy and materials. For these sectors, however, commodity prices — not tariffs — are likely to be the primary driver of performance. Edward Jones Keep an eye on crude oil prices in particular, as rising oil feeds directly into inflation concerns.

🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD) Pressure The Canadian Dollar held well throughout the prior week but after a streak of softer CPI and Retail Sales, has started to see some outflows. MarketPulse A weaker loonie can benefit TSX exporters but also signals broader macro worry.

⚖️ Post-SCOTUS Tariff Landscape For Canada, the more relevant tariffs remain the Section 232 tariffs — including sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber products — which remain intact after the Supreme Court struck down the broader IEEPA-based tariffs. Edward Jones The CUSMA review slated for July 2026 is an important longer-term backdrop to monitor.

📅 Coming Up After the Week There are still two key dates ahead in March: the February labour force survey drops March 13, followed by the Bank of Canada’s policy-rate decision set for March 18. If the jobs numbers show weakness, rate-sensitive names on the TSX could take another hit. TS2

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Bottom line for forecasters: The week is dominated by tariff headline risk, the Friday U.S. jobs report, and ongoing macro softness in Canada. Banks and energy remain the key sectoral bellwethers. Expect continued volatility driven by trade policy news out of Washington rather than domestic fundamentals alone.

Monday March 2

Japan and Euro zone’s manufacturing PMI

Germany’s retail sales

(9 a.m.) Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki speaks in Oslo, Norwway

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February.

Also: Canadian and U.S. auto sales for February.

Earnings include: Capstone Mining Corp.; InterRent REIT; K92 Mining Inc.; MongoDB; Wajax Corp.

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Tuesday March 3

Japan’s jobless rate and capital spending

Euro zone’s CPI

Earnings include: Alibaba ADR, Baytex Energy Corp., CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., Macy’s Inc., Pet Valu Holdings Ltd., Topaz Energy Corp.

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Wednesday March 4

China’s PMI

Japan and Euro zone’s services and composite PMI

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian labour productivity for Q4. Estimate is a decline of 0.2 per cent from Q3.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for February.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services/Composite PMI for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for February.

(10:20 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Toronto.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Beige Book is released.

Earnings include: Athabasca Oil Corp., Broadcom Inc., Capital Power Corp., George Weston Ltd., Ivanhoe Electric Inc., Freehold Royalties Ltd., Kinaxis Inc., Linamar Corp., Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd., Vermilion Energy Inc.

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Thursday March 5

Euro zone’s retail sales

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Feb. 28. Estimate is 217,000, up 5,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity and unit labour costs for Q4. The Street expects annualized rate increases of 1.6 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for January. Consensus is a rise of 0.2 er cent from December and down 0.1 per cent year-over-year.

Earnings include: Aecon Group Inc., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Canfor Corp., Costco Wholesale Corp., Endeavour Mining Corp., Ero Copper Corp., Headwater Exploration Inc., Maple Leaf Foods Inc., Marvell Technologies Inc., Merck ADR, Methanex Corp., Parex Resources Inc., Spin Master Corp.

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Friday March 6

Euro zone’s GDP

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February. Consensus is a rise of 60,000 jobs month-over-month with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3 per cent and average hourly wages rising 0.3 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for January. The Street expects a decline of 0.3 per cent from December.

(10 a.m. ET) Canada’s Ivey PMI for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for December.

(3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for January.

Earnings include: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp., AltaGas Ltd., Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp., Nexus REIT

BRAMPTON, Ontario, Feb. 25, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Loblaw Companies Limited (TSX: L) (“Loblaw” or the “Company”) announced today its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter ended January 3, 2026⁽¹⁾.

Unless otherwise indicated, all comparisons of results for the fourth quarter of 2025 (13 weeks ended January 3, 2026) are against results for the fourth quarter of 2024 (12 weeks ended December 28, 2024) and all comparisons of results for the full-year of 2025 (53 weeks ended January 3, 2026) are against the results for the full-year of 2024 (52 weeks ended December 28, 2024).

Loblaw delivered solid fourth quarter results, demonstrating strong execution against its strategic plan. On a comparable 12-week basis, revenue increased 3.5%, gross profit percentage improved by 10 basis points, SG&A as a percentage of sales was flat and adjusted net earnings per common share increased 10.9%. Customer visits increased in the fourth quarter as Canadians recognized the differentiated value, quality, service, and convenience the Company offers across its nationwide network. This increased traffic resulted in continued market share gains across its banners. E-commerce sales experienced robust growth, as omnichannel convenience remained a customer priority. The Company continued to expand its offering, catering to customer demand for rapid delivery, prepared meals, and favourite PC^® products. The Company continued to focus on providing value to Canadians by expanding its Hard Discount network this quarter, opening 15 No Frills^® and Maxi^® stores, providing convenient access to nutritious food at great prices for more Canadian families. The Company’s Super Market banners, including high-performing Fortinos and T&T^® Supermarkets, attracted shoppers seeking full-service shopping with a focus on Canadian products, multicultural offerings, and innovative PC^® Insider Report™ products, enhanced by personalized PC Optimum™ loyalty offers and competitive prices. Food Retail same-store sales growth steadily improved through the quarter. Across Shoppers Drug Mart and Pharmaprix^(MD), the Company continued to demonstrate momentum in front store, driven by strong beauty and over-the-counter (“OTC”) sales. Pharmacy and healthcare services was again led by strong growth in specialty prescriptions and healthcare services.

The Company’s performance in the fourth quarter capped a successful 2025. Loblaw continued to invest in its future growth by opening 77 new stores across its banners, and successfully ramping the first of two automated, one million square foot distribution centres. The previously announced sale of PC Financial to EQ Bank will streamline the Company’s operations, and the associated long-term strategic relationship as the exclusive financial partner of the PC Optimum loyalty program is expected to result in expanded growth of high-value, loyalty-based financial services customers. 2025 also marked significant growth rates in the Company’s margin accretive logistics as a service, retail media and Lifemark businesses. Loblaw is confident that its best-in-class assets, resilient business model and investments for the future position it well to meet the evolving needs of Canadians, creating a foundation for consistent and sustainable growth.

“We are pleased to deliver another year of consistent operational and financial performance, reflecting our continuous focus on retail excellence, strategic execution, leading digital engagement and adoption of Agentic AI,” said Per Bank, President and Chief Executive Officer, Loblaw Companies Limited. “Our success reflects our commitment to being where our customers need us most, delivering unparalleled value and convenience across our many banners, combined with exceptional service from our dedicated colleagues coast-to-coast.”

2025 FOURTH QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

As announced on December 3, 2025, the Company entered into an agreement with EQB Inc. (“EQB”) pursuant to which EQB will acquire President’s Choice Bank (“PC Bank”) and certain other affiliated entities (collectively, “PC Financial”) (the “Sale of PC Financial”). Closing is expected to occur within calendar 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. Accordingly, PC Financial results are presented as discontinued operations. Retail represents the continuing operations of the Company.

• Retail revenue was $16,382 million, an increase of $1,657 million, or 11.3%.
  • On a 12-week comparable basis, revenue increased by 3.5%.
  • Food Retail (Loblaw) same-store sales⁽⁵⁾ increased by 1.5%.
  • Drug Retail (Shoppers Drug Mart) same-store sales⁽⁵⁾ increased by 3.9%, with pharmacy and healthcare services same-store sales growth⁽⁵⁾ of 5.6% and front store same-store sales growth⁽⁵⁾ of 2.2%.
  • E-commerce sales⁽⁵⁾ increased by 19.6%.
• Retail gross profit percentage⁽²⁾ was 30.8%, a decrease of 10 basis points.
  • On a 12-week comparable basis, gross profit percentage⁽²⁾ was 31.0%, an increase of 10 basis points.
• Retail operating income was $1,134 million, an increase of $341 million, or 43.0%.
• Retail adjusted EBITDA⁽²⁾ was $1,775 million, an increase of $180 million, or 11.3%.
  • Selling, general and administrative expenses (“SG&A”) as a percentage of sales was 20.0%, a decrease of 10 basis points. On a 12-week comparable basis, SG&A as a percentage of sales was flat at 20.1%.
• Net earnings available to common shareholders of the Company were $656 million, an increase of $194 million or 42.0%. Diluted net earnings per common share were $0.55, an increase of $0.17, or 44.7%.
• Adjusted net earnings available to common shareholders of the Company⁽²⁾ were $794 million, an increase of $125 million, or 18.7%. Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share⁽²⁾ were $0.67, an increase of $0.12 or 21.8%.
  • On a 12-week comparable basis, adjusted diluted net earnings per common share⁽²⁾ increased by 10.9%.
• Net capital investments were $677 million, which reflects gross capital investments of $722 million, net of proceeds from property disposals of $45 million.
• Repurchased for cancellation 9.8 million common shares at a cost of $592 million. Free cash flow⁽²⁾ from Retail

Loblaw Reports Adjusted Diluted Net Earnings Per Common Share Growth of 10.9% in the Fourth Quarter on a 12-Week Comparable Basis

The numbers first: TRI hit a 52-week high of $218.42 USD on July 14, 2025, and crashed to a 52-week low of $85.02 on February 5, 2026 Million Dollar Journey — a drop of roughly 61% peak to trough. That is not a dip. That is a collapse.

Three distinct causes drove this:

1. Valuation was stretched to begin with TRI spent 2024–early 2025 being priced as an AI winner — the market rewarded it for CoCounsel and its legal AI push. That premium was built on expectations of massive AI monetization. When reality set in that growth was solid but not spectacular, the premium evaporated fast.

2. Earnings were fine — but “fine” wasn’t enough Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance were broadly in line with consensus. It didn’t matter — shares still fell 6% after the earnings release on February 5. CNBC Revenue grew 3% for the full year. Earnings actually fell 32% year-over-year. The Globe and Mail The market had priced in an AI growth company; it got a steady information services business.

3. Anthropic’s legal AI tool triggered a panic sell-off — in a single day This is the biggest single event. When Anthropic released productivity tools for lawyers in late February, data providers and legal software companies took massive hits globally, as investors grew more skeptical of software providers facing AI disruption. Two ETFs tracking software and financial data stocks lost a combined US$300.6 billion in market value. Yahoo Finance TRI experienced its largest ever single-day intraday drop, falling as much as 17%. Simply Wall St

The core fear investors had: “These applications that are simply a wrapper around what already exists in an LLM, I do not understand what the enduring moat is” Yahoo Finance — meaning if Anthropic can do legal research directly, why does anyone need Westlaw?

The specific concern is that Claude’s legal plugin threatens TRI’s new client growth by potentially shifting budgets and workflow ownership away from TRI’s core research products. StockAnalysis

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Is the Fear Actually Justified?

Partially — but the market likely overreacted. Morningstar analysts argue TRI’s business is not likely to be eliminated by AI, noting the plugin “has nothing to do with legal research, which is the core value proposition and wide-moat foundation” of TRI’s legal business. Yahoo Finance

What TRI actually has that pure AI can’t easily replicate: decades of proprietary legal databases, trusted case law, regulatory filings, and professional relationships. Those are not easily reproduced by a chatbot. But the market is pricing in the risk that clients may not see it that way.

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Forecast: Next 3 Months (Mar – May 2026)

The partial recovery has already started. On February 24, TRI shares rose 11.66% in a single day, driven by the Anthropic-Thomson Reuters partnership announcement and Q4 EPS of $1.07 beating expectations. INDmoney That rebound was the market repricing the Anthropic relationship from “threat” to “partner.”

What analysts are saying now:

• 11 analysts have an average “Buy” rating with a 12-month price target of $164.55 The Globe and Mail — roughly 48% above where it sits today (~$111 USD)
• 2026 guidance calls for organic revenue growth of 7.5–8%, EBITDA margin expansion of 100 basis points, and free cash flow of ~$2.1B CNBC
• TRI announced a $600M share buyback program, signaling management’s confidence that the stock is undervalued The Motley Fool Canada

Realistic 3-month outlook:

The stock will likely recover toward the $120–$135 USD range, but not back to $218. Here’s why the recovery will be slow:

• The AI disruption debate is not resolved — every new AI legal tool announcement will re-ignite selling pressure
• The valuation multiple won’t re-rate meaningfully until the AI debate resolves — structural uncertainty over terminal growth limits upside StockAnalysis
• The $600M buyback provides a floor — management buying their own stock puts a bottom under the price

Bottom line: TRI got obliterated by a combination of stretched valuation, modest earnings, and a panic sell-off triggered by an AI tool that is arguably not even a direct competitor to their core product. The business itself is intact and profitable. The next 3 months should see a partial recovery — but don’t expect the 2025 highs anytime soon. The AI disruption narrative will hang over this stock until TRI proves CoCounsel is genuinely growing revenue, not just user numbers.