Author: Consultant

Consumer prices in Canada rose at a faster-than-expected pace of 2.4 per cent in December, largely due to the base-year effect from last year’s sales tax break, but ‍closely-watched core ​measures of inflation cooled for the third consecutive month, data showed on Monday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation would hold at the 2.2-per-cent rate recorded in November.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index declined by 0.2 per cent, Statistics Canada ⁠data showed. The monthly decline was less than market expectations of a 0.3-per-cent decrease.

The Canadian central bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, continued to ease and were the lowest since December, 2024. CPI-median – or the value at ‌the middle of the set ‍of price changes in a month – cooled to 2.5 per cent from 2.8 per cent ‍in November, while CPI-trim – which excludes the ‌most extreme price changes – decreased to 2.7 per cent from 2.9 per cent.

The deceleration ⁠in core prices should keep the Bank of Canada at ease after the Bank ​held its key policy rate steady at 2.25 per cent in December, and said this was about the right level to keep inflation close to its 2-per-cent target. Money markets expect rates to stay on hold in 2026.

The rise in headline inflation ​in December was driven by a temporary sales tax break on certain food and children’s items authorized by the previous Liberal government headed by Justin Trudeau in the comparative December, 2024, period.

Restaurant prices, one of the segments affected by the tax holiday, were the largest contributor to the acceleration in the annual inflation rate ⁠in December, 2025.

Opinion: What cost-of-living crisis? The data tell a different story

Moderating the acceleration in the annual rate was a year-over-year ⁠decline in prices for gasoline, which fell 13.8 per cent in December after a 7.8-per-cent decline in ‌November.

Grocery prices, while unchanged month-over-month, rose 5 per cent annually.

Excluding volatile food and energy, inflation rose 2.5 per cent in the month.

Services price inflation rate in December accelerated to 3.3 per cent from 2.8 per cent in November, while goods prices rose by 1.2 per cent after 1.5 per cent in the previous month.

On an annual average ‌basis, prices increased 2.1 per cent last year, following a 2.4 per cent rise in 2024.

📅 Monday, January 19, 2026

🇨🇳 China – Q4 GDP & Activity Data

• China Quarterly GDP (YoY) – Expected ~4.4–4.5% — growth is forecast to slow vs. prior quarter, reflecting weak domestic demand and property sector drag.
• Industrial Production (Dec) – (YoY) consensus not officially published — market watchers expect muted expansion or slight deceleration tied to domestic weak demand.
• Retail Sales (Dec) – (YoY) forecast weaker growth — a key gauge of consumer activity in China.
• Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) – (YTD YoY) data released — often shows investment ebb reflecting slower policy transmission.
  Why it matters for TSX: China is the world’s largest commodity consumer, so weaker activity tends to weigh on metals and energy prices, which can spill over to TSX materials & energy stocks.

🇨🇦 Canada – CPI & BoC Surveys

• Canada Consumer Price Index (Dec)
  • Headline & Core inflation — forecast: Moderation expected but still above 2% (BoC target range). Final consensus isn’t yet published, but the Bank of Canada is widely expected to stay on hold with rates, citing softer consumer demand.
• Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey – qualitative confidence indicator; no numerical consensus but will influence outlook for future policy.

📈 Global Risk Noise: The U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which typically reduces liquidity and can exaggerate moves in commodities and FX.

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📅 Tuesday, January 20, 2026

🇨🇳 China – PBoC Loan Prime Rates (LPR)

• One-year and five-year LPR expected stable — markets aren’t expecting changes in benchmark lending rates even as the economy slows.

🇬🇧 U.K. – Employment Report (Nov)

• Unemployment Rate – Expected ~5.0%
• Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3-Mo/Yr) – Expected softer growth ~4.4%
  These figures impact global sentiment and FX but are less directly impactful on TSX.

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📅 Wednesday, January 21, 2026

🇬🇧 U.K. CPI (Dec)

• Inflation (MoM & YoY) — expected modest deceleration, influences BoE stance.

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📅 Thursday, January 22, 2026

🇺🇸 United States – Key Macro Releases

• GDP Final (Q3) – confirms earlier estimates; no major revisions expected.
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Nov)
  • Core PCE YoY — consensus ~2.6–2.8%
  • Headline PCE YoY — consensus ~2.7%
    These are the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges — markets react strongly if figures deviate notably from expectations.
• Personal Spending & Income (Nov) — spending ahead of holidays is monitored for consumer momentum.

Why PCE matters: A stronger-than-expected PCE is interpreted as stickier inflation, potentially delaying rate cuts — this can tighten financial conditions and pressure equity valuations globally.

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📅 Friday, January 23, 2026

🇨🇦 Canada – Retail Sales (Nov)

• Retail Sales (MoM) — consensus moderately positive but slowing year-over-year — a key Canadian domestic demand gauge.

🇺🇸 United States – Flash PMIs (Jan)

• S&P Global PMI Flash (Manufacturing & Services) — early big-picture data on business activity.

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🧠 Forecast Summaries / Market Expectations

Release	Consensus / Expected	Market Implication
China Q4 GDP YoY	~4.4–4.5%	Slower growth → weaker commodity demand; may pressure TSX materials & energy.
Canada CPI (Dec)	Moderation but above 2%	BoC likely on hold; soft inflation supports equities.
U.S. Core PCE (Nov)	~2.6–2.8%	If above forecast, delays rate cuts → negative risk sentiment.
Canada Retail Sales (Nov)	Slight moderation	Gauge of domestic demand; better data supports consumer stocks.
U.S. Flash PMIs (Jan)	Mixed but modest growth	A key early growth snapshot into early 2026.

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🔎 Market Interpretation — TSX Focus

📉 Negative Risks

• A China GDP miss vs. forecast → lower metals/oil demand forecasts → negative for TSX materials & energy.
• Stronger U.S. PCE inflation than expected → tighter Fed policy expectations → risk off moves hurting equities.

📈 Positive Drivers

• Moderating Canadian inflation + soft retail sales → keeps BoC on hold, boosting yield-sensitive equities.
• Robust U.S. consumption/spending → supports risk assets broadly, potentially lifting TSX cyclicals.

Monday January 19

U.S. markets closed (Martin Luther King Jr. Day)

China GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

Japan core machine orders and industrial production

Euro zone CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI for December. The Street is projecting a decline of 0.4 per cent from November but a gain of 2.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for November. Estimate is a year-over-year drop of 9.5 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations for Q4 are released.

Earnings include: Fastenal Co.

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Tuesday January 20

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP employment for December of 2027.

(10:30 a.m. ET) Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks at Davos.

Also: Possible U.S. Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs

Earnings include: DR Horton Inc., Fifth Third Bancorp, Interactive Brokers Group Inc., Netflix Inc., U.S. Bancorp, 3M Co.

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Wednesday January 21

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at Davos.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for November.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for December. Estimate is a month-over-month decline of 1.0 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for October. Consensus is a month-over-month rise of 0.1 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for December.

Earnings include: Charles Schwab Corp., Johnson & Johnson, Kinder Morgan Inc., Prologis Inc., TE Connectivity Ltd., Travelers Companies

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Thursday January 22

Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting (through Friday)

Japan trade balance

Euro zone consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price indexes. Analysts expect a decline of 0.1 per cent month-over-month and 2.0 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Jan. 17. Estimate is 205,000, up 7,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP for Q3. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 4.3 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. pre-tax corporate profits for Q3. The Street expects a year-over-year gain of 9.1 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for November. The consensus projections are month-over-month gains of 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for November. The Street is forecasting a month-over-month gain of 0.2 per cent and year-over-year rise of 2.7 per cent.

Earnings include: Abbott Laboratories, Alcoa Corp., Capital One Financial Corp., CSX Corp., GE Aerospace, Intel Corp., Intuitive Surgical Inc., Novagold Resources Inc. Procter & Gamble Co., Southwest Airlines Co., Visa Inc.

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Friday January 23

Japan CPI and PMI

Euro zone PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for November. The Street is projecting a gain of 1.2 per cent from October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales for December.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for January.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Earnings include: NextEra Energy Inc.

Canada could boost exports of oil, natural gas and uranium to China under agreements reached during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing.

Mr. Carney announced Canada would welcome Chinese investments in areas including energy, agriculture and consumer products as part of a joint “economic and trade cooperation roadmap” released by Beijing and Ottawa Thursday.

Ottawa and Beijing also signed a memorandum of understanding on “strengthening energy co-operation,” a deal that comes amid rising petroleum exports to China from Canada. Chinese companies have taken delivery of liquefied natural gas from Canada’s first LNG export facility in 2025 and have ramped up purchases of Canadian oil over the last year.

Canada-China talks on reducing canola tariffs have been fruitful, Anand says

Canadian flags flew over Tiananmen Square on Thursday as the Prime Minister was received by Chinese Premier Li Qiang at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. China’s foreign minister Wang Yi declared that Mr. Carney’s first visit to China marked a “turning point” in relations after years of strained ties.

Mr. Carney is in China this week seeking more foreign investment and markets for Canada to offset the damage Donald Trump’s protectionist tariffs are doing to the Canadian economy.

The pact, signed by Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson for Canada, said both countries “recognize that conventional energy continues to play an important role in the energy transition” and agree to “strengthen exchanges in areas such as oil and gas resources development, including crude oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas trade.”

Campbell Clark: Carney needs to be wary of the same old China ‘reset’ mirage

The agreement said both countries recognize Canada as an “important potential partner in responsibly produced and reliable global oil, LNG, and LPG supply and will explore opportunities for mutually beneficial co-operation based on market principles.” LPG refers to liquefied petroleum gas.

The pact, which builds on previous agreements, also promotes Canadian uranium sales to China, saying the two countries aim to “strengthen cooperation in natural uranium trade.”

As he introduced the delegation to Premier Li, Mr. Carney pointed to Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and said his province has lots of uranium.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. CNQ-T +1.70%increase, the country’s largest energy company, is poised to purchase a $1-billion-plus portfolio of Alberta natural gas properties from Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU-T -0.05%decrease

Canadian Natural filed the paperwork for federal Competition Bureau approval of a transaction with Tourmaline on Dec. 30, according to arecent notification published by the bureau. However, the regulator and the Calgary-based companies did not disclose details of the potential deal.

Canadian Natural is in talks to acquire a natural gas business in Alberta’s Peace River region that Tourmaline put up for sale in November, according to two sources familiar with the negotiations. The Globe is not naming the sources because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the talks.

Last year, analysts estimated the portfolio could fetch up to $1.4-billion. Canadian Natural also owns gas wells and energy infrastructure in the area.

Tourmaline’s Peace River operations include 2,428 horizontal wells, 34 gas plants and 15,500 kilometres of pipelines.

Opinion: Tourmaline’s billion-dollar natural gas sale will show oil patch sentiment on political promises

Canadian Natural is seeking preliminary regulatory feedback on a potential acquisition of the Tourmaline assets prior to announcing a purchase, the sources said.

Tourmaline said it would not comment on the sale process of its Peace River assets before its first-quarter report, which is slated for March 4.Canadian Natural also declined to comment on the regulatory filing.

Canadian Natural is the largest player in Alberta’s oil sands, with a $95-billion market capitalization. The company is also one of the country’s largest natural gas producers after a series of acquisitions in recent years.

Canadian Natural uses a significant amount of natural gas – 32 per cent of what it produces – in its oil sands refineries. It exports 33 per cent of its natural gas production and sells the remainder in domestic markets.

In a recent investor presentation, the company said the combination of improvements in drilling technology, and its Alberta network of pipelines and other energy infrastructure, offers a “significant opportunity to grow its liquids-rich natural gas assets.”

The application to the federal competition watchdog suggests that the scale of Canadian Natural’s potential acquisition requires regulatory approval, a relatively common development when companies in mature sectors such as energy buy businesses from peers.

CEO Mike Rose and others continue to buy as Tourmaline Oil rallies

Tourmaline, one of the country’s largest natural gas producers, is selling the Peace River assets to raise money for expansion of its operations in northeastern British Columbia’s Montney region. The area has the largest potential reserves of any North American natural gas play, with 45 years of drilling inventory at current rates of exploration.

Tourmaline, which has a $17-billion market capitalization, is working on one of the largest expansion projects in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, of which the Montney region is a part of, and aiming to increase total production to 850,000 barrels a day by early next decade.

Tourmaline’s sale of its Peace River assets is expected to lower its operational expenses this year by roughly 7 per cent, ATB Financial said in its 2026 oil and gas outlook.

Output from the liquids-rich Montney basin, which straddles northeastern B.C. and northwestern Alberta, has helped Canadian natural gas production hit record highs over the past few years. In 2024, average daily production was 18.3 billion cubic feet a day.

Interest in the Montney basin has been piqued by the launch of the LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat, B.C., in June, 2025, combined with the fact the basin provides some of the most economic production in Canada.

While ATB forecast a slowdown in mergers and acquisitions in the Canadian oil and gas sector in 2026, it said that value is still being recognized in transactions in the Montney basin, including Kiwetinohk Energy Corp.’s corporate sale to Cygnet Energy Ltd. late last year in a transaction with an enterprise value (equity and debt) of $1.4-billion.

Trendy fashion retailer Aritzia Inc. ATZ-T -0.55%decrease reported a nearly 90-per-cent jump in its third-quarter profit and hiked its full-year sales forecasts as the company’s continuing U.S. expansion and growing digital presence stoked demand among shoppers.

The Vancouver-based clothing brand on Thursday reported net income of $138.9-million or $1.16 per diluted share in the third quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025, compared to $74.1-million or 63 cents per share in the same quarter the year prior.

Aritzia’s hot streak continued through the all-important holiday shopping season. The company saw record-breaking sales during the period, which will apply to its fourth-quarter results, chief executive officer Jennifer Wong said on Thursday.

“I think our product looks absolutely fantastic, and what’s even more, we’ve been in an excellent inventory position to meet the demand,” Ms. Wong told analysts during a conference call to discuss the results.

Aritzia reported net revenue of $1.04-billion – its first quarterly sales report above $1-billion in the company’s history. That represented a 43-per-cent jump compared to the same quarter last year, led by the U.S. market, where Aritzia has been opening new locations.

The results significantly outpaced analysts’ expectations, which had forecast third-quarter revenue of $934.8-million and net income of $102-million, according to the consensus estimate from S&P Capital IQ.

Comparable sales – an important metric that tracks sales growth at stores open for more than one year, to exclude sales increases resulting from new store openings – grew by 34 per cent.

New store openings and increased investments in advertising contributed significantly to sales growth, as did a new mobile app. Ms. Wong called the app’s early performance “wildly successful,” noting that it has reached 1.4 million downloads since its launch in late October.

While the majority of the app downloads came from existing Aritzia customers, it also drew in a good portion of new shoppers to the brand, as well as some who had not shopped at the store in some time, Ms. Wong added.

On Thursday, the company boosted its sales forecasts for its results for the fiscal year. Aritzia now expects its full-year net revenue to grow by approximately 33 per cent compared to the prior year to around $3.6-billion. The company had previously forecasted that figure to land somewhere between $3.3- to $3.5-billion, or 21- to 22-per-cent growth.

The company is now on track to reach revenue targets it had initially set for its next fiscal year one year early, chief financial officer Todd Ingledew said on Thursday.

During the call, Ms. Wong also indicated that the company’s international e-commerce website, which went live in August, is drawing significant interest from countries such as Britain, Australia and China, and parts of Central Europe, such as Switzerland and Germany.

“We’re gaining lots of good information for future expansion of the Aritzia brand.”

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. MFI-T +3.86%increase is raising its quarterly dividend as it expects a mid-single-digit increase in revenue for fiscal 2026 compared with 2025.

The company says its adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $520-million and $540-million, driven by revenue growth and margin improvement from various initiatives.

Maple Leaf is also planning to spend about $160-million to $180-million on maintenance, productivity improvements and automation.

The protein packaging company says it is raising its quarterly dividend by approximately 10 per cent from 19 cents per share to 21 cents.

The company says its outlook is supported by sustained progress on key initiatives, which also included its recent move to separate its pork business.

Last year, Maple Leaf spun off its pork business as Canada Packers Inc.

Inflation cooled a bit last month as prices for gas and used cars fell, a sign that cost pressures are slowly easing.

Consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent in December from the prior month, the Labor Department said Tuesday, the same as in November. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 0.2 per cent, also matching November’s figure. Increases at that pace, over time, would bring inflation closer to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 per cent.

Even as inflation has eased, the large price increases for necessities such as groceries, rent, and health care have left many American households feeling squeezed, turning “affordability” issues into high-profile political concerns. Food prices have jumped about 25 per cent since the pandemic.

U.S. consumer confidence plummets to lowest level since Trump’s April tariffs

Tuesday’s report is the first clear measure of inflation since September. The six-week government shutdown last fall suspended the collection of price data used to compile the inflation rate, and the government didn’t issue a report in October and November’s figures were partially distorted by the impact of the closure.

Most prices in November were collected in the second half of the month, after the government reopened, when holiday discounts kicked in, which may have biased November inflation lower. And since rental prices weren’t fully collected in October, the agency that prepares the inflation reports used placeholder estimates in November, that may have biased prices lower, economists said.

Still, Tuesday’s report suggested that inflation didn’t change even with newer, more comprehensive figures. Consumer prices rose 2.7 per cent in December, compared with a year ago, the same figure as November, while core prices increased 2.6 per cent from a year earlier, also unchanged.

Inflation has come down significantly from the four-decade peak of 9.1 per cent that it reached in June, 2022, but it has been stubbornly close to 3 per cent since late 2023. The cost of necessities such as groceries is about 25 per cent higher than it was before the pandemic, and other necessities such as rent and clothing have also gotten more expensive, fueling dissatisfaction with the economy that both President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden have sought to address, though with limited success.

The Federal Reserve has struggled to balance its goal of fighting inflation by keeping borrowing costs high, while also supporting hiring by cutting interest rates when unemployment worsens. As long as inflation remains above its target of 2 per cent, the Fed will likely be reluctant to cut rates much more.

The Fed reduced its key rate by a quarter-point in December, but Chair Jerome Powell, at a press conference explaining its decision, said the Fed would probably hold off on further cuts to see how the economy evolves.

The 19 members of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee have been sharply divided for months over whether to cut its rate further, or keep it at its current level of about 3.6 per cent to combat inflation.

Trump, meanwhile, has harshly criticized the Fed for not cutting its key short-term rate more sharply, a move he has said would reduce mortgage rates and the government’s borrowing costs for its huge debt pile. Yet the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, which are set by financial markets.

In a move that cast a shadow over the ability of the Fed to fight inflation in the future, the Department of Justice served the central bank last Friday with subpoenas related to Powell’s congressional testimony in June about a US$2.5-billion renovation of two Fed office buildings. Trump administration officials have suggested that Powell either lied about changes to the building or altered plans in ways that are inconsistent with those approved by planning commissions.

In a blunt response, Powell said Sunday those claims were “pretexts” for an effort by the White House to assert more control over the Fed.

“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President,” Powell said. “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

U.S. stocks have kicked off 2026 on a strong note, but could face turbulence in the coming days with the start of corporate earnings season, fresh inflation data and rising geopolitical uncertainty.

The S&P 500 is up nearly 2% already in ‍January, on ​the heels of the benchmark index in 2025 closing out its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains. Stocks jumped on Friday after mixed jobs data that saw traders maintain expectations for more interest rate cuts this year.

The market’s recent strength has defied an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape. After a U.S. military operation that seized Venezuela’s leader, officials in President Donald Trump’s administration spoke of acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the military. Investors point to a strong ⁠outlook for corporate profits, easing monetary policy and coming fiscal stimulus as supports for a bull market that is in its fourth year.

“On balance for this year, the foundation for the market is solid,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management.

“As we’re starting January, the market may be underappreciating some of the events on the horizon that could likely produce higher volatility,” Arone said. “It just seems a little too quiet.”

While geopolitical ‌events have boosted the safe-haven appeal ‍of gold, stocks have largely shrugged off the uncertainty, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. The Cboe ‍Volatility Index on Friday was not far above its low point from 2025.

“The ‌market’s a bit numb to it,” Miskin said. “But this is a time where everything is priced near ⁠perfection and it’s a time where you can take out some insurance or think about some defensive options just in case another geopolitical event hits the headlines.”

Major banks kick off fourth-quarter earnings season in the coming week, with strong profit growth this year a crucial source of optimism for stock investors. Analysts expect that overall earnings from S&P 500 companies climbed 13% in 2025, and they estimate a further rise of over 15% in 2026, according to LSEG IBES. JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. lender, reports on Tuesday, with Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs ​among those reporting later in the week. Financial sector earnings are expected to have climbed about 7% in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period.

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers, will be looking to bank results for insight into the health of the consumer, such as on credit card payment defaults, with consumer spending accounting for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

“The banks are going to be telling you something that is going to be pretty important because they’re on the front lines,” Juszkiewicz said.

Investors have been struggling to get a full picture of the economy because ⁠the 43-day government shutdown late last year delayed or canceled key reports, with data flow now returning to normal.

That could raise the ⁠stakes for Tuesday’s release of December’s Consumer Price Index, closely followed for inflation trends. It will be one of the last key releases before the Federal Reserve’s next monetary ‌policy meeting at the end of January.

The U.S. central bank lowered interest rates in each of its last three meetings of 2025 in response to a weakening labor market, but investors are unsure when it might cut further.

Fed easing is adding “a sense of calm to risk markets,” said Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investment strategist at Hartford Funds. “All the inflation numbers are going to be critical to what Fed policy is going to look like,” Abuhoff Jacobson said. “If the mosaic is suggesting that ‌inflation is inching higher, then there are going to be questions about whether the Fed is going to ease in 2026 or how much they can ease.