Author: Consultant

Gold prices rose to touch a new record high on Tuesday, as investors turned to the safe-haven asset ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned announcement of sweeping tariffs on countries that have a trade imbalance with the U.S.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,128.99 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $3,148.88 earlier in the day.

U.S. gold futures were 0.3% higher at $3,160.2.

Robust central bank purchases, as well as a combination of geopolitical and economic uncertainty driven by Trump’s tariff plans, are supporting gold, said Ryan McIntyre, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.

“The uncertainty is probably going to prevail for quite a while. We’ll have to see what comes out tomorrow,” McIntyre added.

Markets and consumers are waiting for details of Trump’s planned tariffs, set to be announced on Wednesday. White House aides have drafted plans for tariffs of around 20% on most U.S. imports, the Washington Post reported Tuesday.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, closed out its strongest quarter since 1986 on Monday, and climbed over $3,100/ounce, marking one of the most significant upswings in the precious metal’s history.

Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% from 20% on Monday, and said it expected more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Non-yielding bullion thrives in a low-interest rate environment.

“We continue to see the gold prices moving higher,” due in part to increasing gold holdings by physically backed ETFs, McIntyre added.

On a technical basis, gold’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above 70, indicating the metal is overbought.

Job openings fell to 7.568 million by the end of February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a Tuesday report, compared with economists’ expectation of 7.616 million. Investors’ are also awaiting Friday’s non-farm payrolls report for cues on the Fed’s rate cut trajectory.

Silver fell 0.5% to $33.92 an ounce, platinum was down 0.9% at $983.64. Palladium was marginally higher at $983.20.

Oil prices steadied near five-week highs on Tuesday as threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and attack Iran countered worries about the impact of a trade war on global growth.

Brent futures were up 7 cents, or 0.1%, at $74.84 a barrel, after rising to above $75 a barrel earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 4 cents, or less than 0.1%, to $71.52.

The contracts settled at five-week highs a day earlier.

“While stricter sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia could constrain global supply, the U.S. tariffs are likely to dampen global energy demand and slow economic growth, which in turn will affect oil demand further out on the curve,” SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said.

“As a result, betting on a clear direction for the market has been – and remains – challenging,” he added.

Trump on Sunday told NBC News that he was very angry with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on Russian oil buyers if Moscow tried to block efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Tariffs on buyers of oil from Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, would disrupt global supply and hurt Moscow’s biggest customers, China and India.

Trump also threatened Iran with similar tariffs and bombings if Tehran did not reach an agreement with the White House over its nuclear program.

A Reuters poll of 49 economists and analysts in March projected that oil prices would remain under pressure this year from U.S. tariffs and economic slowdowns in India and China, while OPEC+ increases supply.

Slower global growth would dent fuel demand, which might offset any reduction in supply due to Trump’s threats.

Prices found some support after Russia ordered Kazakhstan’s main oil export terminal to close two of its three moorings amid a standoff between Kazakhstan and OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus allies led by Russia – over excess production.

Kazakhstan will have to start cutting oil output as a result, two industry sources told Reuters. Another source said that repair work at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal will take more than a month.

The market will be watching an April 5 OPEC+ ministerial committee meeting to review policy. told Reuters OPEC+ was on track to proceed with a production hike of 135,000 barrels per day in May. OPEC+ had already agreed a similar hike in production for April.

Meanwhile, five analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that U.S. crude inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels in the week to March 28.

Monday March 31

Japan industrial production and retail sales

China PMI

Germany retail sales and CPI

Earnings include: Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp.; Sigma Lithium Resources Corp.

—

Tuesday April 1

Japan jobless rate and manufacturing PMI

Euro zone CPI, manufacturing PMI and jobless rate

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for March.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for February. The consensus estimate on the Street is a rise of 0.2 per cent month-over-month.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February.

Also: Canadian and U.S. auto sales for March

Earnings include: NovaGold Resources Inc.

—

Wednesday April 2

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for March.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for February. The Street is projecting a gain of 0.4 per cent from January.

Earnings include: BlackBerry Ltd.; Foran Mining Corp.; Sailpoint Inc.

—

Thursday April 3

Japan, Euro zone and U.K. services and composite PMI

(7:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Challenger Layoff Report for March.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of March 29.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade balance for February.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for March.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services PMI for March.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for March.

Earnings include: Conagra Brands Inc.; Constellation Brands Inc.; Dollarama Inc.; Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

—

Friday April 4

China markets closed

U.K. GDP, retail sales and trade balance

Germany factory orders and manufacturing production

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment report for March. The consensus forecast is a gain of 15,600 jobs (versus 1,100 in February) with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 per cent to 6.7 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. employment report for March. The Street is projecting a gain of 135,000 jobs (versus 150,000 in the previous month) with the unemployment rate remaining 4.1 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for March.

Earnings include: Corus Entertainment Inc.; MTY Food Group Inc.

U.S. President Donald Trump wrote in a social media post that he and Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke this morning, describing the conversation as “extremely productive.”

In a Truth Social post, Mr. Trump wrote, “It was an extremely productive call, we agree on many things, and will be meeting immediately after Canada’s upcoming Election to work on elements of Politics, Business, and all other factors, that will end up being great for both the United States of America and Canada. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

The Canadian federal election is April 28.

A lead representative of Canada’s automotive parts sector is warning that U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff plans would decimate vehicle production on both sides of the border, causing business to dry up for hundreds of supplier companies.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump said automobiles and auto parts imported to the U.S. will face 25-per-cent tariffs. Vehicles imported under the USMCA will be taxed at the same amount, and the rate will be calculated based on their non-U.S. content. Auto parts under the trade agreement will face tariffs at a later date, also calculated based on non-U.S. content.

“He may just be crazy enough to take the entire industry over the ledge,” said Flavio Volpe, the president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association, in an interview Thursday.

Even before the announcement, Mr. Volpe’s members were struggling with a series of punitive trade policies introduced or threatened by Mr. Trump this winter. That particularly applied to companies hit by tariffs imposed on Canadian steel and aluminum exports.

But the newest measure, Mr. Volpe suggested, would affect all suppliers even if they weren’t directly targeted and would weaken the North American industry at large – a concern echoed by representatives on both sides of the border.

“This is all stacking up to not bode well,” said Glenn Stevens, executive director of MichAuto, Michigan’s automobile industry association.

Canada’s auto sector could face layoffs, shutdowns due to Trump tariffs, say industry experts

The share price for major Canadian parts manufacturer Magna International Inc. MG-T -2.14%decrease dropped by 6.9 per cent on Thursday.

The concern from industry is not that auto makers would quickly shift from Canadian to U.S. suppliers, which seems to be Mr. Trump’s aim in threatening tariffs on imported parts. This is not feasible because such relationships – often involving products customized to the auto makers’ needs – are too locked in for that.

Because auto manufacturing in North America is a “very inelastic industry,” Mr. Volpe said, the tariffs on parts would make vehicle assembly so expensive that auto makers would have to slow or even stop their operations, and cancel or postpone orders.

This wheel is, however, already in motion, and began as soon as Mr. Trump threatened North American free trade.

Jahn Engineering is a Canadian company based in Oldcastle, Ont., that sends orders to auto manufacturers across the border. They haven’t received an order in around six months. They typically receive between five and 10 new contracts per month.

The company is likely not subject to the latest U.S. tariffs on vehicles and parts. It builds the equipment used to manufacture parts and – based on the White House release Wednesday night – automobile and auto parts will be targeted by the new tariffs.

Unifor president Lana Payne calls for job protections for auto workers in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement, which imposes 25 per cent tariffs on auto imports. Payne said any company that wants to sell vehicles in Canada should have a footprint in the country or face another set of rules.

The Canadian Press

However, facing uncertainty from Mr. Trump’s on-and-off-again trade war, major auto manufacturers have delayed manufacturing new car models, said Louis Jahn, the company’s chief executive officer.

Overall, around 75 per cent of the projects for new models are on hold and have been since before Mr. Trump’s inauguration, said Mr. Jahn, who is also president of the Canadian Tooling & Machining Association. Orders are down 80 per cent for the Canadian sector, he added.

Manufacturing new models isn’t the only disruption impacting the production cycles of major auto manufacturers. The latest tariffs build on layers of complexity that make it particularly difficult for companies to make informed choices, Mr. Stevens said.

The auto sector is also contending with problems such as steel and aluminum tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from other nations and Mr. Trump’s pull back on electric vehicles.

For these reasons, auto manufacturers have also delayed capital expenses and cut back on their work force, Mr. Stevens said, adding that it is hard to predict how the next few weeks will play out but uncertainty is not good for business.

“I fear we’re going to see more paralysis as this shakes out,” he said.

Mr. Trump, by undermining the interconnected nature of North America’s auto industry and threatening the fiscal feasibility of every company along the value chain, could drive higher prices and lower selection for consumers. It will make the sector less competitive precisely when other industries across the globe – notably China – are aggressively growing and expanding.

“If anything, this weakens us,” Mr. Stevens said, adding that “it will be very disruptive to an industry that took decades to develop.”

U.S. consumer spending rebounded in February, likely lifted by higher prices, which could amplify fears that the economy was facing a period of tepid growth and high inflation amid an escalation in trade tensions.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, climbed 0.4 per cent after a revised 0.3 per cent decline in January, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending rising 0.5 per cent after a previously reported 0.2 per cent fall in January.

President Donald Trump has announced a slew of tariff actions since taking office in January. On Wednesday, Trump unveiled a 25 per cent levy on imported cars and light trucks starting next week. Economists say the size and manner in which the tariffs are being handled were detrimental to economic growth.

Business and consumer sentiment have deteriorated considerably, raising the risks of a recession, with the United States’ trade partners expected to retaliate through duties of their own. The well telegraphed tariffs have sharply widened the trade deficit as businesses rushed to secure imports.

Consumers, also eager to avoid higher prices, front-loaded their spending, much of which took place in December. The ebb in pre-emptive buying as well as unseasonably cold temperatures and snowstorms cooled spending at the start of the year.

Before the data, gross domestic product estimates for the first quarter were mostly around a 1.0 per cent annualized rate and the odds of a contraction have risen. The economy grew at a 2.4 per cent pace in the October-December quarter.

Trump, who sees tariffs as a tool to raise revenue to offset his promised tax cuts and to revive a long-declining U.S. industrial base, is planning to unveil a wave of reciprocal tariffs next week. Economists, however, argue that the duties will be inflationary in the short-run.

Consumers’ inflation expectations have sky-rocketed.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged last week that inflation had started to rise “partly in response to tariffs,” adding that “there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year.”

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3 per cent in February after advancing by an unrevised 0.3 per cent in January. Economists had forecast the PCE price index gaining 0.3 per cent. In the 12 months through February, prices increased 2.5 per cent, matching January’s rise.

Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.4 per cent after an unrevised 0.3 per cent advance in January. In the 12 months through December, core inflation increased 2.8 per cent after rising 2.7 per cent in January.

The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE price measures for its 2 per cent inflation target. The Fed last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25 per cent-4.50 per cent range. Financial markets expect it to resume its easing cycle in June.

Canada’s gross domestic product grew by 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis in January as economic activity continued the momentum of the last few of months, data showed on Friday.

Economists said part of the growth was helped by an increase in demand for cross-border trade by companies seeking to avoid the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Canada’s economic activity has grown at a brisk pace in the last two quarters, registering an annualized growth of well over 2 per cent, indicating that seven rounds of interest rate cuts has helped boost consumer spending and investment.

But the Bank of Canada has warned that there was a significant gap between the robust hard data seen so far and a survey data of businesses and consumers.

With U.S. tariffs coming on a wide range of products and retaliatory tariffs, spending and investments in Canada could dip considerably, hurting economic growth, the BoC and economists have said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had estimated January growth to be 0.3 per cent from an upwardly revised 0.3 per cent growth in December from an initial 0.2 per cent growth. A flash estimate from Statscan showed that growth in February was likely to be unchanged.

The flat February growth was probably due to the offsetting impacts of growth in manufacturing, finance and insurance and contraction in real estate rental, leasing, oil and gas extraction and retail trade, Statscan said.

The Canadian dollar pared some losses after the data and was trading down 0.1 per cent to 1.4318 against the U.S. dollar, or 69.84 U.S. cents. Yields on the two-year government bond fell 3.6 basis points to 2.521 per cent.

January’s economic activity was boosted by both goods and services sectors, with expansion seen in 13 out of 20 areas, the statistics agency said. Goods-producing industries grew by 1.1 per cent, its largest growth since October 2021.

The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and manufacturing sectors were the largest contributors to growth. The oil and gas extraction subsector registered the biggest growth amongst them with 2.6 per cent expansion in January.

The manufacturing sector was up 0.8 per cent in January after contracting for two consecutive months. Construction activity continued to expand in January, led by residential construction, which hit its highest level since November 2023.

Retail trade was the only major dampener for January, data showed.

U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum earlier this month and on Wednesday slapped 25 per cent tariffs on auto parts and car imports. He has vowed more import duties from next month.

This is likely to wipe off almost all growth projected by the central bank, the BoC has said. It had forecast 2025 growth at 1.8 per cent.

Currency swap markets are seeing a 62 per cent chance of a pause in rate cuts on April 16 after the BoC slashed rates by 225 basis points to 2.75 per cent in the space of nine months.

“Given recent developments on the tariff front this is clearly now old news, and the Bank of Canada will be carefully judging downside risks to growth against a stronger near-term profile for inflation as it makes its next policy decisions,” said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets.

Statscan said that exports to the United States accounted for 16.8 per cent of Canada’s GDP and over 2.6 million local jobs.

Gold prices rose on Thursday as U.S. auto tariffs ratcheted up global trade tensions ahead of an April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs from the world’s largest economy.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,030.47 an ounce as of 0247 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $3,036.00.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting next week, widening the global trade war.

Investors feared that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, expected to take effect on April 2, might fuel inflation, slow economic growth and heighten trade tensions.

Concerns over Trump’s tariff policies catapulted gold to a record high of $3,057.21 on March 20.

Aakash Doshi, global head of gold at SPDR ETF Strategy, expects gold will breach $3,100 in the second quarter and “the market could potentially push another 8%-10% higher by end-2025 if the current macro and physical market tailwinds sustain for the yellow metal.”

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce from $3,100, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank demand.

Investors await the U.S. personal consumption expenditures data, due on Friday, which could shed more light on the U.S. interest rate path.

Last week, the U.S. central bank held benchmark interest rate steady, but indicated it could cut rates later this year. Non-yielding bullion tends to thrive in a low interest-rate environment.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said that while the U.S. central bank has made a lot of progress bringing inflation down, “we have more work to do” to get inflation to the Fed’s 2% target.

Spot silver eased 0.1% to $33.69 an ounce, platinum firmed 0.1% to $975.25 and palladium lost 0.4% to $964.56.

• U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose “far larger” tariffs on the European Union and Canada if they work together to combat trade tariffs.
• “If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!,” Trump posted on social media platform Truth Social on Thursday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/27/trump-threatens-far-larger-tariffs-on-eu-and-canada-.html