Author: Consultant

Executive Summary

• TSX ended last week slightly negative (~-1.3% weekly) after a 4-week run → momentum cooling
• Market now driven by geopolitics (oil), rates, and earnings transition
• Bank of Canada expected to hold (~2.25%), anchoring financials
• Industrial and energy signals mixed → higher volatility regime
• Upcoming week = macro + earnings + commodities interplay

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1) Macro Drivers (Primary Layer)

Interest Rates / Central Banks

• Global central banks (Fed, ECB, BoC) expected to hold rates
• Market focus:
  • Forward guidance (inflation vs growth trade-off)

Implication (TSX):

• Stable rates → supports banks (RY, TD, BMO)
• But caps upside (no multiple expansion catalyst)

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Inflation / Growth Data

• Canada inflation ~2.4% (within target band)
• Factory sales trending +3.5% MoM (industrial strength)

Watch:

• Any upside inflation surprise → bearish for equities
• Weak growth data → cyclical sectors (industrials/materials) risk

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2) Geopolitics & Commodities (Dominant Short-Term Driver)

Oil / Middle East (Critical)

• Oil volatility tied to Iran / Strait of Hormuz tensions
• Oil recently fluctuating ~$90–$96/bbl range

Market Sensitivity:

• ↑ Oil → Energy ↑, inflation risk ↑
• ↓ Oil → Energy ↓, broader TSX stabilizes

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Gold & Metals

• Gold recently declined (~-2.6%) with USD strength
• Materials sector weak → drag on TSX

Watch:

• Bond yields + USD direction (key drivers)

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3) Sector-Level Watchlist

Financials (Largest TSX Weight)

• Supported by:
  • Stable rates
  • Earnings positioning (May cycle upcoming)

Watch:

• Bond yields (10Y Canada/US)
• Credit risk headlines

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Energy

• Most sensitive sector next week
• Direction entirely dependent on:
  • Geopolitical headlines
  • Oil price swings

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Industrials (TTIN context)

• Mixed signals:
  • Strong factory sales
  • But macro uncertainty

Watch:

• Rail volumes
• Infrastructure announcements

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Technology

• Recently weak (AI disruption concerns)
• High sensitivity to:
  • Rates
  • Risk sentiment

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4) Earnings Calendar (Early Cycle Signals)

• Light TSX earnings next week, but:
  • Industrials + materials names reporting (e.g., Aecon, West Fraser)
• Broader trend:
  • Banks report in May → positioning phase now

Implication:

• Market trading more on expectations than actual results

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5) Key Market Indicators to Track Daily

Indicator	Why It Matters	Bull Signal	Bear Signal
Oil price	TSX weighting driver	>$100	<$90
Bond yields	Bank margins	Rising gradually	Falling sharply
USD strength	Commodities inverse	Weak USD	Strong USD
VIX / volatility	Risk appetite	<15	>20
TSX Financials Index	Leadership signal	Outperformance	Breakdown

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6) Scenarios (Next Trading Week)

Bull Case

• TSX +1–2%
• Drivers:
  • Oil stable / rising
  • No escalation in geopolitics
  • Stable yields

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Base Case (Highest Probability)

• Flat (±1%)
• Drivers:
  • Market digestion after rally
  • Mixed sector signals

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Bear Case

• TSX −2–4%
• Triggers:
  • Escalation in Middle East
  • Sharp drop in commodities
  • Risk-off rotation

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7) What Would Change the Outlook (Disconfirmers)

• Sudden ceasefire → oil collapse → sector rotation
• Unexpected rate shift (BoC/Fed tone change)
• Earnings pre-announcements (banks or energy)

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Actionable Takeaways

• Market regime = macro-driven, not company-specific
• Focus areas:
  • Oil (primary driver)
  • Bond yields (secondary driver)
  • Financials leadership (confirmation signal)
• Expect higher volatility + lower directional conviction vs prior weeks

Monday April 27

Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting (through Tuesday)

China’s industrial profits

Germany’s consumer confidence and retail sales

(10:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity index for April.

Earnings include: Celestica Inc., Nucor Corp., TFI International Inc., Verizon Communications Inc.

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Tuesday April 28

Japan’s jobless rate

ECB’s three-year CPI expectations

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP employment for April 11.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Cotality Case-Schiller Home Prince Index (20 city) for February.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for February. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.1 per cent from January and up 1.6 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April.

Also: Ottawa’s spring update and U.S. Fed meeting begins.

Earnings include: Aecon Group Inc., Booking Holdings Inc., Coca-Cola Co., General Motors Co., Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., Robinhood Markets Inc., Spotify Technology SA, Starbucks Corp., T-Mobile US Inc., Toromont Industries Ltd., United Parcel Service Inc., Visa Inc., Winpak Ltd.

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Wednesday April 29

Japan’s markets closed

Euro zone economic and consumer confidence

Germany’s CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable and core orders for March. The Street expects month-over-month increases of 0.5 per cent for both.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for March (first reading).

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for March.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for March.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for March.

(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s policy announcement and the release of its Monetary Policy Report with Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference to follow.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement with Chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.

Earnings include: Alamos Gold Inc., Alphabet Inc., Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP, Canadian National Railway Co., Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd., Capital Power Corp., Capstone Mining Corp., Centerra Gold Inc., CGI Inc., Choice Properties REIT, Ebay Inc., FirstService Corp., GFL Environmental Inc., Kinross Gold Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Methanex Corp., Microsoft Corp., Qualcomm Inc., West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., Whitecap Resources Inc.

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Thursday April 30

China’s PMI

Japan’s retail sales and industrial production

Euro zone’s GDP and CPI

Germany’s GDP and unemployment

ECB’s monetary policy meeting

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly real GDP for February. Consensus is a rise of 0.2 per cent from January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. GDP and GDP price index for Q1. The consensus projections are annualized rate increases of 2.1 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for March. The Street expects month-over-month rises of 0.9 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for March. Consensus is a gain of 0.3 per cent from February and up 3.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. employment cost index for Q1. Consensus is a rise of 0.8 per cent from Q4 and up 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of April 25. Estimate is 212,000, down 2,000 from the previous week.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago PMI for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for February.

Earnings include: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Air Canada, AltaGas Ltd., Apple Inc., Aritzia Inc., Bombardier Inc., Caterpillar Inc., Cenovus Energy Inc., Eldorado Gold Corp., Eli Lilly and Co., Endeavour Mining Corp., Gildan Activewear Inc., Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp., Lumine Group Inc., Mastercard Inc., Merck & Co. Inc., NextGen Energy Ltd., Spin Master Corp., Trisura Group Ltd.

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Friday May 1

China and Euro zone markets closed

Japan’s CPI, consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s provincial GDP for 2025.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for April.

Also: U.S. and Canadian auto sales for April.

Earnings include: Arc Resources Ltd., Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP, Chevron Corp., Colgate-Palmolive Co., Exxon Mobil Corp., Hudbay Minerals Inc., Imperial Oil Ltd., Magna International Inc., Premium Brands Holdings Corp., Sprott Inc., TC Energy Corp., Telus Corp., Westshore Terminals Investment Corp.

CALGARY – Federal Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson says the government has approved Enbridge Inc.’s $4-billion Sunrise project in B.C.

The plan will see an expansion of the company’s Westcoast natural gas pipeline system.

The project includes the addition of about 139 kilometres of new pipeline by constructing 11 pipeline looping segments, parallel to the existing line.

It will add up to 300 million cubic feet per day of transportation capacity on B.C.’s major natural gas transmission system.

The government says the increase will help ensure B.C. has enough gas supply as LNG export facilities like Woodfibre LNG come online.

Construction is expected to begin this summer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 24, 2026.

TORONTO , April 20, 2026 /CNW/ – MDA Space Ltd. (TSX: MDA) (NYSE: MDA), a leading provider of advanced technology and services to the rapidly expanding global space industry, has been selected by Airbus to design and build more than 880 Ka-band steerable antennas and 440 Ku-band user replacement antennas for the OneWeb low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation owned by the global operator Eutelsat. This award follows an initial order to supply close to 2,000 antennas to the constellation, the second largest in lower Earth orbit with approximately 650 satellites, given to MDA Space by OneWeb in 2016.

With a heritage of delivering high-quality antenna systems for over 350 satellite missions, MDA Space leverages its expertise in high-volume production and capabilities as a leading supplier of innovative antenna systems to support the deployment of large-scale constellations like OneWeb. MDA Space antennas received a performance award from OneWeb for the original deployment.

“The selection of MDA Space for this repeat order underscores our company’s reputation as a reliable partner in enabling advanced satellite communications and connectivity around the world,” said Mike Greenley, CEO of MDA Space. “With the growth of satellite constellations continuing to accelerate, MDA Space is ideally positioned to meet full constellation life cycles from the initiation to expansion to the replacement of satellites, antennas and subsystems.”

Eutelsat awarded Airbus the contracts to build the OneWeb constellation extension in December 2024 and December 2025, for 100 and 340 satellites respectively. The antennas from MDA Space will be built, assembled and tested at the company’s state-of-the-art high-volume satellite production facility in Montréal, and integrated into Arrow telecommunications satellites manufactured by Airbus.

A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck off the northeastern coast of Japan on Monday, prompting authorities to urge residents to stay away from coastal areas where tsunami waves of up to 3 meters (10 ft.) were expected.

Two hours after the tremor, which struck at 4:53 p.m. (0753 GMT), tsunami waves as high as 80 cm had been detected. A tsunami warning was later downgraded to a tsunami advisory.

There were no immediate reports of casualties or major damage, Japan’s top government spokesperson Minoru Kihara told a news conference as night fell in the capital Tokyo.

Getty Images

Several port towns including Otsuchi and Kamaishi — both hard-hit by a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011 — earlier issued evacuation orders for thousands of residents, according to public broadcaster NHK. Bullet train services were halted and some motorways were closed due to the tremors.

Following the quake, the government issued a warning of a heightened risk of a megaquake.

Normally, the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 8 or stronger striking along the Japan Trench and Kuril Trench in the Pacific off northern Japan in a week is about 0.1%, but during the week that follows Monday’s quake, it will be higher at around 1%, a government official told a press conference.

“Please take anti-disaster steps, while embracing the idea that one must protect one’s own life,” the official said.

No abnormalities reported at idled nuclear plants

The quake measured an “upper 5” on Japan’s seismic intensity scale — strong enough to make it difficult for people to move around and cause un-reinforced concrete-block walls to collapse. The tremor had an epicenter in the Pacific Ocean and was 20 km deep, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

A 3-meter tsunami could cause damage to low-lying areas by flooding buildings and carrying off anybody exposed in its currents, according to JMA.

Located in the “Ring of Fire” of volcanoes and oceanic trenches partly encircling the Pacific Basin, Japan is one of the world’s most earthquake-prone countries, with a tremor occurring at least every five minutes.

It accounts for about 20% of the world’s earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or more, such as the 2011 disaster that caused nuclear meltdowns at a Fukushima power plant.

There are no nuclear power plants currently in operation in the affected areas and Hokkaido Electric Power and Tohoku Electric Power said there were no abnormalities reported at their idled facilities there.

Canadian gold miner Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM-T -3.06%decrease is bulking up considerably in northern Finland by unveiling three acquisitions worth roughly $3.8-billion.

Toronto-based Agnico on Monday announced it has reached agreements to buy Rupert Resources Ltd. RUP-T +64.16%increase for up to $2.9-billion in stock and cash, Aurion Resources Ltd. AU-X +43.82%increase for $481-million in cash, and B2Gold Corp.’s BTO-T -1.31%decrease 70-per-cent stake in Fingold Ventures Ltd. for US$325-million.

By buying all three, Angico will consolidate its presence in Lapland. The company’s Kittilä mine has been in operation since 2009 and is one of the biggest gold operations in Europe. Kittilä is located 150 kilometres north of the Arctic Circle.

Under the agreement, Toronto-based Rupert’s shareholders will receive a mix of Agnico shares and up to $3 in cash payable over 10 years for each of their securities. The cash portion will be paid out depending on the company’s minerals projects hitting certain milestones. The offer equates to a 67-per-cent premium to Rupert’s closing price on Friday. Rupert’s flagship project is Ikkari in northern Finland. Production at the site is targeted for 2030, and the mine is expected to have a 20-year life.

U.S. allows mining near Minnesota wilderness area, with waters flowing into Canada

The acquisition of St. John’s-based Aurion Resources will see Agnico take ownership of several exploration projects held by the company in Lapland, including its 100-per-cent owned Risti property and its 30-per-cent stake in Fingold.

By buying B2’s stake in Fingold, Agnico will control 100 per cent of the project.

Agnico is Canada’s biggest gold company by market value and the second biggest globally after Colorado-based Newmont Corp.

Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4 per cent in March, with prices jumping 0.9 per cent on the month, as higher crude oil costs drove up gasoline prices, data showed on Monday.

The annual inflation rate was last at this level in December. The monthly inflation spike was the highest in 14 months, Statistics Canada said.

The war in Iran, which began at the end of February, has disrupted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, removing nearly a fifth of global supply. The shock has pushed up pump prices and strained household budgets.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast annual inflation of 2.6 per cent from 1.8 per cent in the prior month, and monthly inflation at 1.1 per cent, up from 0.5 per cent in February.

https://charts.theglobeandmail.com/0CIph/35

Canada’s inflation has been benign for well over a year and has stayed around the mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1 to 3 per cent.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said last week that the central bank was not concerned about a short-term spike in inflation expectations.

Gasoline prices were up by 5.9 per cent on a yearly basis and drove a 21.2-per-cent surge on a monthly basis in March. The year-over-year figure was partly muted due to higher gasoline prices during the same period last year due to a carbon levy which was dropped in April, 2025.

Canadians likely to save 10 cents per litre as federal tax break on gas and diesel takes effect

Higher fuel prices increased the cost of transportation, which is the second biggest contributor to the CPI basket, by 3.7 per cent in March from a year ago.

Food prices were another major contributor to the increase in headline annual inflation, data from the statistics agency said.

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.4 per cent annually in March, after increasing 4.1 per cent in February. Prices for fresh vegetables increased 7.8 per cent, the largest increase since August, 2023, Statscan said.

Since headline inflation could be volatile, the BoC and economists also monitor core inflation metrics to gauge the underlying trend of inflation.

Its closely tracked measure, the CPI-median, the centermost component of the CPI basket, stayed unchanged from the prior month at 2.3 per cent, while CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, edged down to 2.2 per cent in March.

“Pass-through from higher energy prices into core measures of inflation may become more evident closer to the summer months, particularly as higher air fares are picked up more fully,” said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets.

He, however, added that the slack within the Canadian economy should prevent those measures from re-accelerating too much.

The Canadian dollar was slightly firm and was trading up 0.04 per cent to $1.3687 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.06 U.S. cents. Yields on the two-year government bonds were down 1.6 basis points to 2.755 per cent.

Money markets do not expect any change in interest rates by the BoC this month and are pricing in a 25 basis point hike in December. 

Published Sun, Apr 19 20266:07 PM EDT

Crude oil prices surged Sunday, as the U.S. and Iran teetered on the brink of a renewed war after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery rose about 7% to $89.85 per barrel by 6:09 p.m. ET. International benchmark Brent for June delivery advanced nearly 7% to $96.57.

The U.S. Navy on Sunday fired on an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman, and the Marines later took custody of the ship, President Donald Trump said. The ship had tried to get past the U.S. naval blockade of Iran’s ports, Trump said in a Truth Social post.

The U.S. seizure of the ship came after Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Revolutionary Guard gunboats fired on the tanker and a containership was hit by an unknown projectile, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Operations Centre.

Trump on Sunday threatened again to blow up every power plant and bridge in Iran if its leaders do not accept a deal with the U.S. The ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran will expire this week.

It is unclear whether the U.S. and Iran will meet for a second round of peace negotiations in Pakistan.

Trump said the U.S. and Iran would hold talks in Islamabad on Monday. But Iran said it would not attend due to the ongoing U.S. naval blockade, among other grievances, according to state news agency IRNA.

The sudden escalation in tensions over the weekend came after the U.S. and Iran appeared to be nearing an agreement at the end of last week.

Oil prices tumbled on Friday after Iran suddenly declared the strait completely open to commercial traffic in response to the U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. But it quickly became clear that Tehran was imposing the same conditions for transit through the strait as before.

Trump, meanwhile, refused to lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iran. Tehran reversed course and said the strait would remain closed until the blockade is lifted.

Executive Summary

• As of April 17–18, 2026, the market has moved from full blockade pricing toward partial-reopening pricing: Brent fell to $90.38/bbl on April 17 and WTI to $83.85/bbl, after truce hopes and some tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The key near-term fact is that shipping is not yet normalized. Reuters reported only limited, managed passage, and officials are still pressing for full resumption.
• EIA’s April outlook still assumes a meaningful risk premium: it expects Brent to peak around $115/bbl in Q2 2026 before easing as Hormuz flows resume.
• My base case for the next 3 weeks is range-bound but volatile: Brent $86–$98, WTI $80–$92. That reflects partial reopening, persistent transit risk, and no full return to pre-crisis shipping conditions yet. Supported by current spot moves and EIA’s reopening framework.
• The market is now trading the probability of renewed disruption, not just the disruption itself. Any evidence of stable multi-day tanker flow pushes prices down; any renewed firing, closure language, or failed convoy transit pushes prices up quickly.

Key Drivers

Macro
The market is balancing two opposing forces:

1. Geopolitical de-escalation after ceasefire signals.
2. Physical supply-chain fragility because Hormuz traffic is only partially restored.

Sector / physical market
Hormuz is the bottleneck. The most important short-term variable is not global demand; it is whether Gulf barrels can move reliably for several consecutive days. Iraq’s restart of exports is constructive, but that only matters if shipping access holds.

Market structure
EIA explicitly says the Brent-WTI spread peaks in April because disruption is largest now, then narrows as flows resume. That matters because Brent remains the cleaner geopolitical benchmark for this event.

Data & Evidence

Item	Latest signal	Implication for next 3 weeks
Brent settlement	$90.38/bbl on Apr. 17	Market has removed some panic premium, but not all.
WTI settlement	$83.85/bbl on Apr. 17	U.S. crude also repriced lower on truce/reopening hopes.
Earlier stress point	Brent $109.27, WTI $112.95 on Apr. 7	Shows how fast prices can re-spike if disruption escalates.
Ceasefire repricing	Brent $94.75, WTI $94.41 on Apr. 8	Initial reopening hope caused sharp downside reset.
EIA Q2 Brent outlook	$115/bbl peak in Q2 2026	Official baseline still embeds elevated geopolitical premium.
Shipping status	Limited/managed passage, not full normalization	Keeps near-term volatility high.
Export recovery	Iraq says exports from all fields to resume within days	Downside pressure on oil if transit holds.

Valuation Logic

I am using a short-horizon event-driven framework, not a long-cycle supply-demand valuation.

Base arithmetic

• Current market anchor: Brent around $90, WTI around $84.
• Event premium still embedded because:
  • shipping is incomplete, not normalized;
  • EIA still assumes elevated Q2 pricing and a gradual easing path, not a snap return to normal.

Interpretation

• If transit reliability improves each day, the market should keep compressing the risk premium.
• But because the Strait is still operationally uncertain, oil is unlikely to fully revert to pre-conflict pricing over just 3 weeks unless there is a clear and durable restoration of shipping.

Risks

Upside risks to oil

• Fresh attacks on shipping or renewed declaration of closure.
• Failure of convoy/transit arrangements.
• Broader escalation involving Iranian export flows or regional infrastructure.

Downside risks to oil

• Several consecutive days of normal tanker movement.
• Confirmed restart of Gulf exports at scale, including Iraq and other producers.
• Market conclusion that worst-case disruption has passed.

Scenarios

Bull case for oil over next 3 weeks

Assumption: managed reopening fails or shipping is interrupted again.
Brent: $100–$115
WTI: $94–$108

Why:

• The market has already shown it can price Brent above $109 and WTI above $112 during peak stress.
• EIA’s Q2 Brent peak assumption near $115 remains a credible upper reference in a renewed disruption case.

Base case

Assumption: partial reopening continues, but shipping remains fragile and uneven.
Brent: $86–$98
WTI: $80–$92

Why:

• This is broadly consistent with Friday’s close, limited passage through Hormuz, and gradual rather than full normalization.

Bear case for oil over next 3 weeks

Assumption: full reopening becomes credible and export restarts broaden.
Brent: $78–$86
WTI: $72–$80

Why:

• Much of the remaining geopolitical premium would compress quickly if market participants believe the shipping corridor is durable again.
• Iraq export normalization would reinforce that view.

What would disprove this base case

My base case is wrong if either of these happens:

1. Full, stable Hormuz transit resumes sooner than expected
   Then Brent likely breaks below the mid-80s and WTI below $80.
2. Shipping restrictions re-tighten materially
   Then the market likely re-tests the high-$90s to low-$100s for Brent quickly, with WTI following.

Actionable Takeaways

Watch these indicators daily:

• Number of tankers transiting Hormuz without interruption.
• Confirmation that Gulf exports are resuming at scale, especially Iraq.
• Whether official language shifts from “limited/managed passage” to “normal commercial transit.”
• Brent-WTI spread direction; narrowing would support the “reopening is real” thesis.