https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/fed-rate-decision-january-2026.html
Crude oil prices rose Wednesday after President Donald Trump warned Iran that a “massive Armada” is heading in its direction and time is running out to make a deal on its nuclear program.
Global benchmark Brent rose 55 cents, or 0.81%, to $68.12 per barrel by 10:33 a.m. ET. U.S. crude oil was up 63 cents, or 1.01%, to $63.02.
“A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social on Wednesday.
U.S. Central Command said Monday that the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group had arrived in the Middle East “to promote regional security and stability.”
Trump had threatened to attack Iran if it killed protestors during a mass uprising earlier this month. Thousands of people died after the Islamic Republic cracked down on the unrest. But the U.S. president has held back from military intervention so far.
Trump said the fleet deployed to the Middle East is larger than the forces he ordered to the Caribbean before the U.S. captured former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
“Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” Trump said of the carrier strike group Tuesday in the social media post.
He called for Tehran to make a deal on its nuclear program.
“Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL!,” Trump said.
The president warned Iran that a possible attack would be worse than the bombing campaign he ordered last June on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities.
“The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again,” he said.
2026 FIRST QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37253485/metro-reports-2026-first-quarter-results
CGI Inc. GIB-A-T reported a first-quarter profit of $442-million, up from $438.6-million a year earlier, as its revenue rose nearly eight per cent.
The business and technology consulting firm says the profit amounted to $2.03 per diluted share for the quarter ended Dec. 31, up from $1.92 per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue for the three-month period totalled $4.08-billion, up from $3.79-billion.
On an adjusted basis, CGI says it earned $2.12 per diluted share in its most recent quarter, up from $1.97 per diluted share a year earlier.
Earlier this week, CGI announced a collaboration deal with OpenAI that will see it expand the use of artificial intelligence across its business and help clients adopt it in their operations.
CGI has 94,000 consultants and professionals across the globe that provide business and technology consulting services.
The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday and offered little guidance about where monetary policy will go next as U.S. protectionism continues to reshape the Canadian economy.
As widely anticipated, the bank’s governing council kept the policy rate at 2.25 per cent, where it has been since October.
Governor Tiff Macklem said this level “remains appropriate” given the bank’s outlook for slow, but positive economic growth, and subdued inflation. But he was non-committal about how long the bank would remain on hold or what its next move might be.
“Uncertainty around our forecast is heightened and the range of possible outcomes is wider than usual. U.S. Trade policy remains unpredictable, and geopolitical risks are elevated,” Mr. Macklem said, according to the prepared text of his press conference opening statement.
“The consensus was that elevated uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate,” he added.
Financial markets expect the bank to remain on hold through 2026.
Live updates on today’s Bank of Canada rate decision
Mr. Macklem and his team are navigating an unusually complex economic landscape. U.S. tariffs have hammered Canadian exports and undercut business confidence, leading to a slowdown in investment and hiring. Unemployment remains elevated at 6.8 per cent, with young people and workers in tariff-exposed industries bearing the brunt of labour market weakness.
After a healthy rebound in gross domestic product growth in the third quarter of 2025, the bank now thinks GDP growth flatlined in the fourth quarter – with volatility driven by sharp swings in trade and business stockpiling.
The bank’s new forecast, published Wednesday in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, sees muted growth going forward, as economic activity is held back by trade uncertainty and slow population growth.
GDP is expected to grow 1.1 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027, which is largely unchanged from the last projection in October.
This forecast remains highly conditional on U.S. trade policy, particularly the outcome of the upcoming review of the North American free trade pact, which Mr. Macklem flagged as an “important risk to the outlook.”
Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem on lessons from the trade war and what risks he sees ahead
There are also questions about how well, and how quickly, Canadian businesses and consumers can adjust to a world where preferential access to the U.S. market is no longer guaranteed.
“The transition to the new trade environment could be smoother than we expect, with stronger business and household spending,” Mr. Macklem said. “Alternatively, the labour market could weaken further as trade impacts deepen, leading to lower household spending. Financial conditions could also tighten if volatility returns to markets.”
Ultimately, the key question for the central bank is how this economic disruption feeds into consumer prices and inflation. And here, the bank appears relatively sanguine.
Consumer Price Index inflation came in at 2.4 per cent in December, slightly above the bank’s 2-per-cent target. But the uptick in headline inflation was driven mostly be unusual year-over-year price comparisons due to the 2024 GST and HST tax holiday.
The bank expects inflation to ease further in the coming months and to remain around 2 per cent through the year, as ongoing slack in the economy makes it hard for companies to pass along cost increases due to tariffs and other supply-chain disruptions.
Importantly, the bank expects food price inflation to ease thanks to a recent slowdown in input cost growth across food supply chains.
“Most cost indicators are now rising at a pace broadly consistent with inflation around 2 per cent,” the bank said in its MPR. “For example, growth in unit labour costs has been modest, and most import prices are now rising at a pace close to their historical averages.”
Mr. Macklem said that the bank remains prepared to adjust interest rates if the outlook for inflation or economic growth changes. But reiterated the refrain that monetary policy is not well equipped to deal with the kind of economic disruption Canada is currently facing.
“Monetary policy cannot compensate for the structural damage caused by tariffs, and it cannot target hard-hit sectors of the economy. But it can play a supporting role, helping the economy through this period of structural change, while maintaining inflation close to the 2 per cent target,” he said.
Shares of gold miners jumped in morning trading on Monday, as bullion prices surged to a record high of US$5,100 an ounce, extending a historic rally driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility.
Gold rose about 64 per cent in 2025, its steepest annual increase since 1979, fuelled by U.S. monetary policy easing, robust central bank buying and investor flows into ETFs as a hedge against global policy risks and macro uncertainty.
A low-interest-rate environment and economic uncertainty traditionally favour non-yielding assets such as gold.
“We now see gold reaching $6,000 per ounce by year-end, with the caveat that this is probably a conservative estimate and it could well go higher,” said analysts at Societe Generale.
Bullion prices have set consecutive record peaks over the past week and have already risen more than 18 per cent this year.
A higher gold price environment typically boosts miners’ revenues and margins, strengthens cash flows and balance sheets, and gives companies more room to fund expansion, dividends or debt reduction.
Top miners Newmont NEMCL +1.80%increase rose 2.4 per cent and Barrick Mining ABX-T +3.44%increase climbed 2.6 per cent.
Market expectations of potential interest cuts in the U.S. in 2026 have also contributed to the upward momentum in gold prices.
Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines AEM-T +3.57%increase rose nearly 2 per cent and Kinross Gold K-T +4.67%increase gained nearly 3 pet cent.
Tracking the bullion rally, silver prices scaled a new high above US$100 an ounce on Friday, building on its record 147-per-cent rise last year.
“We expect a period of ’stronger for longer’ silver prices to persist in the near to medium term,” said Scotiabank analysts.
Shares of Hecla Mining HL-N +4.68%increase and Coeur Mining CDE-N +2.91%increase rose 4.7 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively.
Canada-based Endeavour Silver EDR-T +5.95%increase, Silvercorp Metals SVM-T +6.11%increase and Wheaton Precious Metals WPM-T +4.63%increase added between 4.1 per cent and 7.3 per cent.
In addition, ETFs abrdn Physical Silver Shares and iShares Silver Trust each up jumped 7.8 per cent.
Franco-Nevada Corp. FNV-T says it is raising its quarterly dividend by about 16 per cent.
The gold royalty and streaming company says it will now pay a quarterly dividend of 44 US cents, up from 38 US cents.
The company also announced that chair David Harquail will become chair emeritus, effective as of its May 12 annual meeting.
The company says he will be replaced as chair by Tom Albanese, who is currently Franco-Nevada’s lead independent director.
Before becoming chair in 2020, Harquail was Franco-Nevada’s chief executive for more than 13 years.
Albanese is a former chief executive of Rio Tinto.
Canadian gold miner Allied Gold Corp. AAUC-T +4.02%increase has agreed to be acquired by China’s Zijin Gold International Co. for $5.5-billion in cash.
Zijin Gold, which is indirectly owned by the Chinese government, is paying $44 per share in cash, a 5.4-per-cent premium to Friday’s close, representing an all-time high for the stock.
Toronto-based Allied was taken public in 2023 by former Yamana Gold Inc. founder Peter Marrone. Mr. Marrone, who became the company’s CEO, put US$30-million of his own money into Allied at the time. Allied operates three mines in West Africa, and produces about 375,000 ounces of gold a year.
Gold bullion is in a historical bull market, fuelled in large part by geopolitical uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump. Gold over the past 24 hours has traded above US$5,000 an ounce for the first time.
In early trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday,Allied’s shares traded up by about 3.5 per cent, signaling some uncertainty over whether the deal will close.
The transaction will undergo both a national security review and net benefit review by the Canadian federal government.
Over the past few years, Ottawa has cracked down on Chinese ownership in the Canadian critical minerals sector, even when the assets in question have been overseas.
However, the government has mostly permitted Chinese investment in Canadian gold assets, owing to it not being a critical mineral. One exception was in 2020 when the government blocked the attempted acquisition of TMAC Resources Ltd. by Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd. The mine in question is located in the Canadian Arctic, and the deal was rejected because of national security concerns.
Canada’s trade relations with China were once again brought to the fore on the weekend when Mr. Trump threatened to put 100 per cent tariffs on Canada if this country strikes a deal with China, although it is unclear what he exactly he was referring to.
Canada doesn’t currently have a comprehensive free trade deal with China, and Prime Minister Mark Carney on Sunday reiterated that he has no intention of striking such a pact either.
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However, since taking office Mr. Carney has improved Canada’s relationship with China in a bid to diversify trade away from reliance on the U.S. during the trade war.
Mr. Carney recently announced a material reduction in tariffs on Canadian imports of Chinese electric cars. He also said that Canada was open to significantly more inbound investment from China in an array of sectors, although mining wasn’t mentioned specifically.
What to know about the Canada-China tariff deal on EVs and canola
Zijin Gold trades on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and is controlled by Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd., which is partly owned by the state.
Allied’s assets are all in Africa, ostensibly presenting no national security threat to Canada. The company operates gold mines in Mali and Côte d’Ivoire. It also has a project in Ethiopia.
Allied says it expects the deal to close by late April, indicating that it doesn’t anticipate the transaction to be blocked by Ottawa.
The deal requires at least two-thirds of votes cast by Allied shareholders to be in favour for it to proceed.
Yamana Gold, which was founded by Mr. Marrone in the early 2000s, was sold in 2023 to Canada’s Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Pan American Silver Corp. for US$4.8-billion.
Monday January 26
Germany’s business sentiment
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s annual revisions to Labour Force Survey (2023-2025)
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable goods orders for November. The consensus projection on the Street is an increase of 3.0 per cent from the previous month.
Earnings include: Nucor Corp., Steel Dynamics Inc.
Tuesday January 27
China’s industrial profits
Japan’s machine tool orders
Germany’s retail sales
(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report estimate for Jan. 10.
(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for November.
(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for November. Consensus is a month-over-month rise of 0.2 per cent and year-over-year gain of 1.1 per cent.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for January.
Also: U.S. Fed meeting begins
Earnings include: AGF Management Ltd., Boeing Co., General Motors Co., Metro Inc., NextEra Energy Inc., Texas Instruments Inc., UnitedHealth Group Inc., United Parcel Service Inc.
Wednesday January 28
(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s policy announcement and release of its Monetary Policy Report with press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem to follow.
(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement with Chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.
Earnings include: ASML ADR, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd., Celestica Inc., CGI Inc., IBM, Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp., Starbucks Corp.; Tesla Inc.
Thursday January 29
Japan’s jobless rate and retail sales
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for November.
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours for November.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Jan. 24.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade balance for November.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity for Q3. The consensus is a PPI increase of 0.3 per cent from the previous quarter.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for November.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale trade for November.
Earnings include: Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Blackstone Inc., Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP, Caterpillar Inc., Champion Iron Ltd., Lockheed Martin Corp., Mastercard Inc., Rogers Communications Inc., Southern Copper Corp., Visa Inc.
Friday January 30
China’s manufacturing PMI
Euro zone’s GDP and unemployment rate
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly real GDP for November. The Street is projecting a month-over-month increase of 0.1 per cent.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. product price index for December.
Also: Ottawa’s Fiscal Monitor for November is expected.
Earnings include: American Express Co., Brookfield Business Partners LP, Brookfield Renewable Partners LP, Canadian National Railway Co., Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Imperial Oil Ltd., Verizon Communications