Category: Uncategorized

Monday September 14

China’s aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans

Japan’s industrial production

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI for August. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.1 per cent but a 3.0-per-cent rise year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders for July. Estimates are drops of 0.1 per cent and 5.0 per cent month-over-month, respectively.

Also: Canada Investment Summit in Toronto (through Tuesday)

Earnings include: Evertz Technologies Ltd.

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Tuesday September 15

China’s retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

Japan’s trade deficit

Euro zone’s trade surplus

(5 a.m. ET) Canada’s existing home sales and average prices for August. Estimates are year-over-year falls of 6.5 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively.

(5 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for August. Estimate is a decline of 3.0 per cent from the same period a year ago.

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP Employment for Aug. 29.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for July. Estimate is a decline of 0.5 per cent from June.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for July. Estimate is a year-over-year slid of 2.0 per cent.

Also: U.S. Fed meeting begins.

Earnings include: NanoXplore Inc.

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Wednesday September 16

Japan’s core machine orders

Euro zone’s industrial production and labour costs.

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canada’s housing starts for August. Estimate is an annualized rate rise of 2.6 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for July. Estimate is a month-over-month drop of 10.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for August. The Street expects a rise of 0.8 per cent month-over-month (versus a fall of 0.4 per cent in July).

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for August. Consensus is a flat reading month-over-month but a gain of 6.1 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for September.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for July. The Street is projecting a gain of 0.2 per cent from June.

(2 a.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement and summary of economic projections with Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press briefing to follow.

(1:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations for Sept. 2 decision is released.

Earnings include: Dollarama Inc.; Lennar Corp.

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Thursday September 17

Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting (through Friday)

Euro zone’s CPI

Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for August.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for August. Estimates are declines of 0.1 per cent from July and 2.1 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for July.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Sept. 11. Estimate is 208,000, up 2,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for August. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 6.4 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for August. The Street is projecting a decline of 2.0 per cent on an annualized rate basis

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index for September.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for August.

Earnings include: Carnival Corp.

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Friday September 18

Japan’s CPI

ECB three-year CPI expectations

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s household and mortgage credit for July.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for August.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.’s net earnings attributable to shareholders came in at US$828.5 million in the first quarter, up from US$782.5 million during the same period last year.     

That amounted to diluted net earnings per share of 90 cents US for the first quarter, compared with 82 cents US in the prior year quarter. 

The Laval, Que.-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says its total revenue came in at US$21.7 billion for the first quarter, rising year-over-year from US$17.3 billion.   

Couche-Tard says its total merchandise and service revenue amounted to US$4.9 billion, compared with US$4.7 billion during last year’s first quarter. 

In July, Couche-Tard made an US$8.6-billion offer for a controlling stake in Polish convenience store operator Zabka Group.

Alex Miller, Couche-Tard CEO, says the company is looking forward to welcoming Zabka into the Couche-Tard family, which will enhance its capabilities in food and digital engagement while expanding its scale in central and eastern Europe.   

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 1, 2026. 

Bank of Montreal BMO-T +0.40%increase
said it will deploy up to $70-billion in new capital over 10 years for sectors considered critical to Canada’s economy.

The bank said its plan is aimed at supporting Canada’s economic security and resilience. It’s the latest move among Canada’s biggest banks targeting sectors Ottawa has deemed essential to reduce dependence on the United States and bolster the economy.

BMO will focus on key industries, including electricity, energy and transportation infrastructure, mining and critical minerals, AI computing, defence and security, and oil and gas.

The capital will be issued through bank financing, debt capital markets activity and the raising of public equity.

Prospectus for Carney’s summit highlights more than 160 projects open for investment

BMO chief executive officer Darryl White said Canada’s growth requires capital to back new ideas.

“The opportunities before us today in these critical economic sectors are the latest chapter in that story,” he said in a statement.

Over the past year, calls have mounted for Canada’s six biggest banks to increase lending for small- and medium-sized business and for pension funds to boost investments in the country. At a Senate committee in June, Canada’s banking regulator cited a fund by JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM-N +0.87%increase
, the world’s biggest bank, saying Canadian banks should “step up and make the same commitment to Canada.”

Last year, U.S.-based JPMorgan said it would invest US$1.5-trillion over 10 years in industries that bolster the U.S. economy’s security and resilience. Earlier this year, the bank said it is expanding that support to Canada, Europe and Britain.

Foreign money is flooding into Canada. But a closer look reveals a U.S.-driven boom

Royal Bank of Canada RY-T +0.10%increase
announced it is launching a $1.4-billion fund aimed at investing in Canadian technology companies, including aerospace and dual-use defence companies. The lender said the fund will focus on sectors where it believes the country’s greatest strengths lie.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T +0.11%increase
is committing $2-billion over five years for small- and medium-sized defence-related and dual-use businesses as Ottawa spends to boost the country’s military base.

Bank of Nova Scotia BNS-T +0.63%increase is planning to issue Canadian defence bonds to help raise capital for companies.

National Bank of Canada NA-T +0.47%increase
tapped former top general Rick Hillier to advise on defence and assist with the lender’s efforts to grow its client base in the defence and security industry, as well as among dual-use companies.

BMO said its efforts should support national priorities to help Canadian businesses compete as the global economy shifts. This could include initiatives proposed to the Major Projects Office, as well as projects related to Canada’s national electricity strategy, the province of Alberta and the oil sands, sovereign AI, and analysis related to the defence and oil and gas sectors.

Enbridge ENB-T -3.29%decrease is further expanding its reach into the U.S. market with a US$2.55-billion deal to buy the crude oil business of Tallgrass Energy LP.

The acquisition announced Wednesday includes a 75 per cent interest in the Pony Express Pipeline, a 460,000-barrel-per-day system that connects oil from the Rockies region to Cushing, Okla., a major storage hub. It also includes a US$300 million plan to expand Pony Express to 515,000 barrels per day of capacity.

Also through the deal, Enbridge gets a 51 per cent interest in the Powder River Gateway system in Wyoming, about 8.4 million barrels of storage capacity across nine terminals and a crude marketing business.

The Tallgrass deal comes two weeks after Enbridge announced plans to buy Salt Creek Midstream’s crude oil gathering business in Texas for US$600 million.

“Both acquisitions … represent the types of opportunities that do not come along very often, and even more rarely meet our disciplined evaluation criteria,” chief executive Greg Ebel said on a conference call on Wednesday.

In a news release, Enbridge said it believes U.S. crude oil production will continue to play a critical role in meeting global energy demand for decades, and the Tallgrass deal “positions the company to lead this mission.”

The Tallgrass deal is expected to close later in 2026, subject to closing conditions that include U.S. antitrust provisions.

The acquisition was announced a day after Ebel said he plans to retire at year end, handing the reins to the current head of Enbridge’s gas utilities business, Michele Harradence.

“Our continued momentum on these strategically important transactions during a time of CEO succession reflects the strength of Enbridge’s planning, deep bench strength and execution capabilities,” Ebel told the call.

SUMMARY: Wholesale inflation re-accelerated in August, driven by energy. Headline PPI rose 0.4% MoM / 5.4% YoY, up from 0.1% and 4.8% in July. Core (ex food and energy) rose 0.2% MoM / 4.6% YoY.

What moved

• Energy was the main driver: final-demand goods +1.1%; energy +4.2%. Diesel jumped 24.1% MoM (~78% YoY) and accounted for more than a third of the goods increase. Gasoline, jet fuel, and heating oil also rose. Electric utility prices fell.
• Transportation and warehousing +2.3% MoM (truck freight up), which feeds into shipping costs for goods.
• Food only +0.1% MoM.
• Services overall +0.1%. Other hot spots in the article (airfares, hospital care, electronic components tied to AI data-center demand) fit the “broader than just oil” concern.

Why it matters PPI is an upstream input into PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (Sept. 30). Friday’s CPI is the bigger market event. Officials split: Chair Warsh said the Fed must be “confident that underlying inflation is moving” to 2% or “we have work to do.” Waller and others have said a cool CPI would support a hold next week. Headline heat is energy/geopolitics (Iran conflict, oil >$100); the open question is whether it is spreading. Core and PPI ex food/energy/trade (+0.3% MoM / 4.7% YoY) are still well above target.

Context Tariffs (including Canada) and high energy keep cost-push risk alive. Food cooling is the one soft signal for grocery prices. Political overlay: elevated prices into midterms.

Bottom line: Energy shock re-lit headline PPI. Core did not accelerate on the month, but the annual

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-us-wholesale-prices-ppi-august

CGI GIB-A-T +0.04%increase says it has acquired U.S. technology consulting firm Callibrity.

Financial terms of the deal, which closed Tuesday, were not immediately available.

Founded in 2007, Callibrity brings experience in financial services, insurance and manufacturing.

CGI says Callibrity adds 120 consultants and strengthens its presence in the Cincinnati market.

Vijay Srinivasan, president of U.S. commercial and state government operations at CGI, says Callibrity brings deep technical expertise, a strong consulting mindset and a culture of curiosity and collaboration.

CGI has 94,000 consultants and professionals around the world.

• The White House has discussed the possibility that the Iran war could drag on past Inauguration Day in January 2029, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal.
• The report contradicts President Donald Trump’s claim on Wednesday that the war would end immediately after the midterm elections.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/iran-us-oil-hormuz-supply-trump-military-brent-wti.html

Summary

• WTI is approximately US$95–96/bbl as of September 9, 2026, driven mainly by escalating U.S.–Iran conflict and impaired Middle East shipping.
• My base case is for the geopolitical premium to decline gradually, taking WTI toward US$80–90 by early December.
• Estimated average over the next three months: US$86–92/bbl.
• Futures support a declining path: October is near US$96, November US$92 and December US$89—strong backwardation.
• The forecast carries unusually high uncertainty because developments around Iran, Saudi infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz outweigh normal supply-demand factors.

Key Drivers

1. Strait of Hormuz and Iran — dominant short-term driver

WTI has risen roughly 20% over the past month. The immediate cause is concern about Middle East oil production, tanker movements and attacks on regional infrastructure. WTI traded near US$95.70, while Brent moved above US$100 on September 9. Reuters

A ceasefire or material improvement in tanker traffic could remove US$10–20/bbl of risk premium relatively quickly. Damage to major Saudi or Gulf infrastructure could instead push WTI above US$110.

2. Futures curve anticipates lower prices

Contract	Approximate price, September 9
October 2026	US$95.72
November 2026	US$92.45
December 2026	US$88.96

The downward curve indicates that the market expects current shortages and geopolitical risks to ease. It does not guarantee that outcome. MarketWatch futures data

3. EIA expects supply recovery

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average approximately US$78/bbl in Q4 2026, based on recovering Strait of Hormuz traffic, restarted production and eventually rebuilding inventories. WTI normally trades below Brent, although the spread is unusually uncertain during shipping disruptions. U.S. EIA

My base forecast is higher than the EIA model because the current conflict remains active and December WTI futures are still close to US$89.

4. Demand and OPEC+

OPEC currently forecasts only about 0.6 million barrels per day of global demand growth in 2026, limiting fundamental support once the geopolitical premium fades. OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

OPEC+ could support prices by delaying production increases. Conversely, increased Gulf production or weak Chinese demand would accelerate a decline.

Scenarios

Scenario	Probability	Three-month WTI outcome	Conditions
Bull	25%	US$105–125	Hormuz disruption worsens; Saudi/Gulf facilities damaged; OPEC+ cannot compensate
Base	50%	US$80–90 by December	Shipping gradually improves; outages recover; conflict remains contained
Bear	25%	US$65–78	Ceasefire, rapid supply restoration, weaker global demand and inventory rebuilding

TSX Implications

WTI level	Likely Canadian market effect
Above US$100	Strong cash flow for CNQ, SU and IMO; positive for the TSX Energy sector, but inflation and interest-rate risks rise
US$80–90	Still constructive for major producers; supports dividends and buybacks without as severe an inflation shock
Below US$70	Pressure on smaller, higher-cost producers; integrated producers and pipelines remain relatively more resilient

What Would Disprove the Base Case

• WTI holds above US$100 for several weeks despite attempted supply restoration.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic deteriorates rather than improves.
• Verified damage materially reduces Saudi or other Gulf production.
• December futures move above October futures, signalling expected shortages rather than normalization.
• Conversely, a ceasefire combined with rapid inventory rebuilding could push WTI below the base range much sooner.

Base conclusion: WTI is likely to remain elevated and volatile during September, but the balance of evidence points toward US$80–90 by early December, with a three-month average around US$89/bbl.

Educational analysis only; geopolitical developments can invalidate commodity forecasts quickly.

Crude Oil – NEW 52W High

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-bank-of-montreal-becomes-first-big-five-bank-to-eliminate-most-online

Summary

• BMO InvestorLine will introduce unlimited commission-free online trading on stocks, ETFs and options starting September 14.
• Options will carry no trading commission, although the per-contract fee is being reduced rather than eliminated.
• BMO is also eliminating brokerage account administration and transfer-out fees.
• The strategy targets younger investors and responds to competition from Wealthsimple, Questrade and National Bank Direct Brokerage.
• The immediate revenue loss appears manageable: InvestorLine represents about 9% of BMO Wealth Management revenue, while its broader value is bringing clients into banking, advisory and private-wealth services.

Strategic Impact

BMO is sacrificing transaction-fee revenue to attract more customers, increase assets under administration and deepen relationships across the bank. InvestorLine’s assets grew at a 14% compound annual rate from 2020 to 2025, with clients under 35 its fastest-growing segment.

The move is strategically positive for customer acquisition but could pressure competitors—particularly other major-bank brokerages—to lower their commissions. National Bank already offers commission-free trading, although it is Canada’s sixth-largest bank and therefore outside the Big Five.

Implications for BMO

Short term: Slightly negative for fee revenue and potentially higher technology and platform costs.

Long term: Potentially positive if BMO converts InvestorLine users into mortgage, deposit, advisory, private-banking and wealth-management clients.

Key risk: Zero commissions will not create lasting customer loyalty unless BMO’s platform, research, execution quality and customer service remain competitive.

Bottom line: This is more of a customer-acquisition and cross-selling strategy than a material near-term earnings event for BMO. It raises competitive pressure across Canadian discount brokerages but is unlikely, by itself, to materially affect BMO’s overall valuation.