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Gold raced past $4,000 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday as investors piled into a record-breaking rally in the safe-haven asset to hedge against global economic uncertainty, while also betting on U.S. interest rate cuts.

Spot gold was up 1.3% at $4,036.22 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 1.3% to $4,058. Silver also latched on to gold’s rally, gaining 2.4% to $48.97 per ounce, and just shy of its all-time high of $49.51.

Traditionally, gold is seen as a store of value during times of instability. Spot gold is up about 54% year-to-date, after gaining 27% in 2024. It is one of the strongest-performing assets of 2025, outpacing advances in global equity markets and bitcoin, while the U.S. dollar and crude oil are down for the year.

The rally has been driven by a cocktail of factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts, ongoing political and economic uncertainty, solid central bank buying, inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a weak dollar.

“Background factors are much the same as before, in terms of geopolitical uncertainty, with the added spice of the (U.S.) government shutdown,” StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell said.

“The latter is not impeding strong equities but nonetheless there will be a degree of risk mitigation via bullion.”

The U.S. government shutdown, into its eighth day on Wednesday, has delayed the release of key economic data, forcing investors to rely on non-government sources to assess the timing and scope of Fed rate cuts.

Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, with a similar reduction expected in December.

Global crises, including the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine, have also contributed to increased demand for bullion, with political turmoil in France and Japan further amplifying the rush for safe-haven assets.

Renewed accumulation of developed-market ETFs for the first time in five years is also among the factors boosting this rally, said Michael Hsueh, precious metals analyst at Deutsche Bank.

Globally, inflows into gold ETFs hit $64 billion year-to-date, according to data from the World Gold Council, with a record $17.3 billion in September alone. Analysts expect strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs, central bank buying and lower U.S. interest rates to support gold prices in 2026 as well. Major banks have turned bullish on this rally.

“We had expected gold to reach the ($4,000) level closer to the end of the year, but the direction of travel remains consistent with our broader outlook,” said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, reiterating its forecast that prices would hit $4,530 an ounce by the end of the third quarter of 2026.

A “fear of missing out” is also boosting the rally, analysts said.

“One headwind for gold would be the Fed getting more hawkish on gold, but for the time being, Trump wants to see lower U.S. interest rates and that should keep increasing the appeal of gold,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

HSBC on Wednesday raised its average silver price forecasts for 2025 to $38.56 per ounce and for 2026 to $44.50, citing expectations for high gold prices, renewed investor demand and anticipated volatile trading. Gold’s momentum also seeped into other precious metals, with platinum gaining 2.4% to $1,652.80, while palladium climbed 4.1% to $1,392.26.

Teck Resources Ltd. TCK-N +3.55%increase has cut its production forecast yet again at its QB2 mine as it continues to grapple with engineering problems at the high-altitude operation in Chile.

Vancouver-based Teck announced the latest QB2 guidance cut as it tries to convince its investors to vote for the takeover of the company by Anglo-American PLC NGLOY +3.45%increase. 

Teck on Wednesday said that it is reducing its guidance to roughly 180,000 tonnes of copper from about 220,000 tonnes. The company had already cut its QB2 guidance in July and January. 

QB2 has been a problem asset for Teck for years. The US$8.7-billion project went 85 per cent over budget. After going into production in 2023, the ramp up didn’t go well either, with grade shortfalls, unscheduled maintenance shutdowns, and persistent technical issues.

This year, slow water drainage in the tailings dam has repeatedly dragged down production. Teck on Wednesday said it will spend an additional $420-million on the tailings dam in 2026, as it tries to achieve steady state production at the mine.

Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina said in a note on Wednesday that the updated QB2 guidance was worse than expected and that makes it less likely that Anglo will need to increase its offer for Teck.

“This makes the Anglo-Teck merger more likely to close without Anglo needing to bump,” he said.

Bay Street reaps the rewards from a deluge of takeovers, stock sales and debt deals

Opinion: Wanna bust up the Anglo American-Teck merger? Anglo looks easier to buy than Teck

London-based Anglo in September said it intended to pay no premium to buy Teck, in an all-stock deal worth about $20-billion. 

Doubt exists in some quarters about whether Teck shareholders will approve the deal in a vote that is likely to happen in December, given the lack of a premium and questions over the timing of the transaction. 

“While the industrial logic of an Anglo-Teck combination is sound and the significant expected corporate/operational synergies are compelling, we continue to believe that the proposed transaction under the current terms appears unlikely to succeed,” Orest Wowkodaw, analyst with Scotia Capital, said in a note to clients on Wednesday. “As securing the minimum required Teck class B shareholder approval of 66 2/3 is likely to prove challenging.” 

About a week before the Anglo deal was announced, Teck launched a major overhaul at QB2 and cut ties with its chief operating officer, the second COO to leave the company amid problems at the mine.  

Still, despite years of problems, some analysts believe the problems at QB2 will get ironed out over time. 

“QB2 appears bent but not broken,” Mr. Wowkodaw said in his note. 

“Although the near-term guidance revisions are slightly weaker than we anticipated, our biggest takeaway is that QB2 does not appear to be a structurally broken asset,” he added.

Anglo chief executive Duncan Wanblad told The Globe and Mail last month he was confident the company would be able to fix any outstanding technical issues at QB2. He said that Anglo had overcome similar problems at one of its mines in the past. 

Teck owns 60 per cent of QB2 and is the operator. Japan’s Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd. and Sumitomo Corp. hold a 30-per-cent stake, and Chile’s National Copper Corporation owns 10 per cent.

novus Energy Inc. CVE-T +1.05%increase boosted its offer for MEG Energy Corp. MEG-T +5.52%increase to $8.6-billion in an attempt to win a hotly contested Alberta oil sands takeover battle.

Early Wednesday, Cenovus announced a cash-and-share bid of $29.80 per MEG share, up $1.32 per share from the offer the two companies announced in late August. The increased offer is meant to trump a hostile, all-share offer from Strathcona Resources Ltd. SCR-T +1.75%increase

Strathcona owns 14 per cent of MEG and has said it planned to vote against the Cenovus offer.

In recent weeks, institutional investors in MEG pressed Cenovus to sweeten its friendly bid ahead of a shareholder meeting originally scheduled for Oct. 9. MEG announced on Wednesday the meeting to vote on the offer is being pushed back to Oct. 22.

On Wednesday, Calgary-based Cenovus said the new deal represents its “best and final offer for MEG.”

MEG’s board of directors recommended shareholders vote in favour of the takeover. In a press release, MEG chair James McFarland said: “This marks the third enhancement to the terms originally put forward by Cenovus, delivering a significant increase to an already attractive transaction.”

The Cenovus offer represents the highest price any buyer has ever paid for oil sands assets, MEG chief executive Darlene Gates said in a press release. She said the improved terms of the deal “enables MEG shareholders to benefit from greater upside through a significant increase to the proportion of share consideration, while also raising the initial transaction consideration.”

Opinion: MEG Energy bidding war sets the stage for oil patch takeovers

Cenovus is offering $29.50 in cash or 1.240 Cenovus common shares for each MEG share, with a maximum payout of $3.8-billion in cash and 157.7 million Cenovus common shares.

The offer now consists of 50 per cent cash and 50 per cent Cenovus common shares. Previously, Cenovus’s bid was structured as 75 per cent cash and 25 per cent stock.

Strathcona initially launched a hostile takeover for MEG in May. In September, after the company announced a board-approved marriage with Cenovus, Strathcona increased its bid.

The offer is for 0.8 Strathcona shares per MEG share, valuing the company as of the Sept. 8 offer date at roughly $30.86 per share, or approximately $7.85-billion.

Two influential proxy advisory firms – Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. and Glass Lewis & Co. – have both endorsed the Cenovus bid over Strathcona. However, the ISS endorsement was tepid, offering “cautionary support” for a deal it described as “neither compelling nor opportunistic.”

MEG and Cenovus have massive neighbouring oil sand properties in the Christina Lake region of Northern Alberta. Cenovus said combining the two operations will generate operational savings, or synergies, of more than $400-million per year by 2028.

Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened in August to $6.32-billion as exports fell faster in both value and volume than the rise in imports on a monthly basis, official government statistics showed on Tuesday.

The trade deficit in August was led by drop in exports not only to its top trading partner the U.S. but also because its shipments to the rest of the world shrank in the month.

Canada’s international trade numbers took a beating early this year as U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sectoral tariffs on the country, forcing businesses to reorient supply chain from its biggest trading partner. But the shift has been volatile and erratic.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the August trade deficit at $5.55-billion, up from a upwardly revised $3.82-billion in the prior month.

Total exports dropped by 3 per cent while imports increased 0.9 per cent, Statscan said.

Opinion: We need to worry more about Canada’s economic growth

In August, exports to the U.S. were at $44.18-billion, down 3.4 per cent from July, StatsCan said, adding it was primarily led by unwrought gold exports. But even other product categories contributed to the decline including lumber, machinery and equipment.

Canada’s share of exports to the U.S. has been volatile but gradually shrinking. It had fallen below 70 per cent a few months ago before recovering to 73 per cent in August as compared with 75 per cent during the same period last year.

Prime Minister Mark Carney will be meeting with Trump on Tuesday as he comes under pressure to address the impacts of U.S. tariffs on critical sectors such as steel, cars and lumber. But experts have warned against the likelihood of any major deal.

Imports from the U.S. were down 1.4 per cent in August on a monthly basis, shrinking the total trade surplus with its southern neighbor to $6.43-billion from $7.42-billion in July.

Exports to countries other than the United States were down 2 per cent in August, a third consecutive monthly decline, Statscan said. Lower exports of crude oil and nuclear fuel contributed the most to the monthly decrease.

However, its imports from the rest of the world barring the U.S. rose 4.2 per cent, reaching a record in August, Statscan’s data showed, pushing Canada’s trade deficit with countries other than the United States to a record high of C$12.8 billion in August from $11.2-billion in July, Statscan said.

Oil prices rose more than 1 per cent on Monday after OPEC+’s planned production increase for November was more modest than expected, tempering some concerns about supply additions, though a soft outlook for demand is likely to cap near-term gains.

Brent crude futures climbed nearly US$1, or 1.5 per cent, to US$65.52 a barrel by 09:05 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at US$61.83, up 95 cents US, or about 1.6 per cent.

“The market was expecting a somewhat larger increase from OPEC+ as shown in the structure last week,” said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad.

“However the modest 137,000 bpd (barrels per day) bloats the already-oversupplied balance for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026.”

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers said it would raise production from November by 137,000 bpd, matching October’s figure, amid persistent concern over a looming supply glut.

In the run-up to the meeting, sources said although Russia was advocating for an increase of 137,000 bpd to avoid pressuring prices, Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even four times that to quickly regain market share.

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The modest production update also comes at a time of rising Venezuelan exports, the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey, and the presence of unsold Middle Eastern barrels for November loading, PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said.

Saudi Arabia kept unchanged the official selling price for the Arab Light crude it sells to Asia.

While refining sources in Asia surveyed by Reuters had expected a slight increase, those expectations diminished as concerns about rising Middle Eastern crude supply felled the premium to a 22-month low last week.

In the near term, some analysts expect the refinery maintenance season starting soon in the Middle East to also help cap prices.

Rystad’s Shah added that Chinese stockpiling of oil, along with the geopolitical risk premiums and inefficient trade routes and sanctions, were also supporting the benchmarks.

Expectations of weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter are another factor limiting the market’s upside.

U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected in the week ended September 26 as refining activity and demand softened, the Energy Information Administration said last week, with total product supplied – a proxy for demand – falling by 627,000 barrels per day in that week.

“If we see a steadier rise in production then the downside in oil prices may be contained. Much now depends on whether the U.S. economy can reaccelerate over the rest of 2025 and into 2026, which would help demand immensely,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group.

Gold prices touched an all-time high on Monday, soaring above the US$3,900-per-ounce level, as investors flocked to safe-haven bullion amid the U.S. government shutdown, broader economic uncertainty and prospects of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Spot gold was up 1.5 per cent at US$3,942.59 per ounce, as of 09:10 GMT, after hitting US$3,949.34 earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery climbed 1.5 per cent to US$3,967.10.

Washington will start mass layoffs of federal workers if U.S. President Donald Trump decides negotiations with congressional Democrats to end a partial government shutdown are “absolutely going nowhere,” a senior White House official said on Sunday.

“Appetite for gold remains heavily stimulated by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

“There may be some FOMO buying on the current price but for others there is likely a sense that this particular financial lifeboat has sailed,” said independent analyst Ross Norman.

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Gold has climbed nearly 50 per cent so far this year, underpinned by strong central bank buying, increased demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds, a weaker dollar and growing interest from retail investors seeking a hedge amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions.

This rally, characterized by low participation and primarily driven by central banks with a long-term outlook and steady investors rather than speculative buyers, indicates that any pullback might be milder than expected, Norman said, adding that this could present a buying opportunity on dips while the rally maintains its momentum.

Alternative data from both public and private sources indicate signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market amid the government shutdown.

Investors are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed meeting this month, with an additional 25 bp cut anticipated in December.

“We see both fundamental and momentum-based reasons for gold to rally further, and now expect bullion to reach $4,200/oz by the end of this year,” UBS said in a note.

Non-yielding gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment and during economic uncertainties.

Spot gold broke the US$3,000-per-ounce level for the first time in March.

Many brokerages have turned bullish on the rally.

Spot silver climbed 1.5 per cent to US$48.68 per ounce, hitting its highest level in more than 14 years. Platinum rose 0.5 per cent to US$1,613.75 and palladium gained 0.7 per cent to US$1,269.06.

Sunday October 5

OPEC+ meeting

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Monday October 6

10 am ET: U.S. global supply chain pressure index

Earnings include: Constellation Brands Inc.

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Tuesday October 7

Prime Minister Carney meets U.S. President Trump in Washington

830 am ET: Canada merchandise trade balance for August. Consensus is for a deficit of $5.7 billion

830 am ET: U.S. goods and services trade balance for August. A $61.0 billion deficit is expected (tentative)

10 am ET: Canada’s Ivey PMI for September

Several Fed members expected to speak throughout the day

Earnings include: McCormick & Co. Inc.

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Wednesday October 8

2 pm ET: FOMC minutes from Sept. 16-17 policy meeting

Several Federal Reserve members scheduled to speak during the day

Earnings include: Trilogy Metals Inc.

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Thursday October 9

8 am ET: Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Rogers speaks in Toronto

830 am ET: U.S. initial jobless claims for last week (tentative)

830 am ET: Fed Chair Powell gives pre-recorded welcome remarks at the Fed’s Community Bank Conference

Several Fed members expected to speak during the day

Earnings include: Aritzia Inc.; Delta Air Lines Inc.; Louis Vuitton ADR; PepsiCo Inc.; Progressive Corp.; Tilray Inc.

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Friday October 10

830 am ET: Canada employment report for September. Consensus is for a net loss of 2,500 jobs, an improvement from August’s decline of 65,500 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.2% from 7.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to be up 3.2% from a year earlier, a steady reading.

10 am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment for October, which is expected to see a modest improvement from last month.

2 pm ET: U.S. budget balance (tentative)

Earnings include: BlackRock Inc.; MTY Food Group Inc.

Monday September 29

China industrial profits and current account balance

Euro zone consumer and economic confidence

Germany retail sales

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for August. The Street is forecasting a month-over-month increase of 0.1 per cent.

Earnings include: Carnival Corp.

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Tuesday September 30

Canada’s National Day for Truth and Reconciliation (stock per

Earnings include: Dye & Durham Ltd.; Nike Inc.; Paychex Inc.

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Wednesday October 1

China’s Golden Week begins (markets closed through Oct. 8)

Japan manufacturing PMI

Euro zone CPI and manufacturing PMI

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for September.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for August.

(1:30 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s summary of deliberations from Sep. 17 meeting are released.

(2:05 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers holds fireside chat in Ottawa.

Also: U.S. and Canadian auto sales for September expected.

Earnings include: Acuity Brands Inc.; NovaGold Resources Inc.; RPM International Inc.

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Thursday October 2

Japan consumer confidence

Euro zone jobless rate

(7:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Challenger Layoff Report for September.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Sept. 27. Estimate is 230,000, a rise of 12,000 from the previous week.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for August.

(1:25 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes speaks at the Ivey Business School in London, Ont.

Earnings include: Richelieu Hardware Ltd.; Tilray Inc.

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Friday October 3

Japan jobless rate and services and composite PMI

Euro zone services and composite PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. employment report for September. The Street is projecting a gain of 50,000 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining 4.3 per cent.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for September.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services PMI for September.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for September.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday took aim at a broad range of imported goods in announcing a new round of punishing tariffs, saying the U.S. will impose 100 per cent duties on imported branded drugs, 25 per cent tariffs on heavy-duty trucks and 50 per cent tariffs on kitchen cabinets.

Trump has launched numerous national security probes into potential new tariffs on a wide variety of products during his second term, casting a shadow over the global economic outlook and paralyzing business decision-making.

Trump also said he would start charging a 50 per cent tariff on bathroom vanities and a 30 per cent tariff on upholstered furniture next week, with all the new duties to take effect from October 1.

The new 100 per cent tariff on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product will apply to all imports unless the company has already broken ground on building a manufacturing plant in the United States, Trump said.

He said the new heavy-duty truck tariffs were to protect manufacturers from “unfair outside competition” and said the move would benefit companies such as Paccar-owned Peterbilt and Kenworth and Daimler Truck-owned Freightliner.

You’re a mean one, Mr. Trump: Decoding the impact of tariffs on toy imports from China

The new tariffs on kitchen, bathroom and some furniture were because of huge levels of imports which were hurting local manufacturers, Trump said.

“The reason for this is the large scale “FLOODING” of these products into the United States by other outside Countries,” Trump said on Truth Social.

The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America opposed new drug tariffs, saying earlier this year that 53 per cent by value of the US$85.6-billion in ingredients used in medicines consumed in the United States was manufactured in the United States with the remainder from Europe and other U.S. allies.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged the department not to impose new truck tariffs, noting the top five import sources are Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland “all of which are allies or close partners of the United States posing no threat to U.S. national security.”

Mexico is the largest exporter of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the United States. A study released in January said imports of those larger vehicles from Mexico have tripled since 2019.

Higher tariffs on commercial vehicles could put pressure on transportation costs just as Trump has vowed to reduce inflation, especially on consumer goods such as groceries.

Tariffs could also affect Chrysler-parent Stellantis which produces heavy-duty Ram trucks and commercial vans in Mexico. Sweden’s Volvo Group is building a US$700-million heavy-truck factory in Monterrey, Mexico, due to start operations in 2026.

Mexico is home to 14 manufacturers and assemblers of buses, trucks, and tractor trucks, and two manufacturers of engines, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration.

The country is also the leading global exporter of tractor trucks, 95 per cent of which are destined for the United States.

“We need our Truckers to be financially healthy and strong, for many reasons, but above all else, for National Security purposes!,” Trump added.

Mexico opposed new tariffs, telling the Commerce Department in May that all Mexican trucks exported to the United States have on average 50 per cent U.S. content, including diesel engines.

Last year, the United States imported almost US$128-billion in heavy vehicle parts from Mexico, accounting for approximately 28 per cent of total U.S. imports, Mexico said.

The Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association also opposed new tariffs, saying Japanese companies have cut exports to the United States as they have boosted U.S. production of medium- and heavy-duty trucks.