Premier Danielle Smith says Alberta will hold a referendum in October focused on wresting more control over immigration from the federal government and limiting access to education and health care for some newcomers – measures she argues are necessary as economic conditions in the province worsen.
Ms. Smith announced the referendum, which she said would take place on Oct. 19, in a televised prime-time address on Thursday night.
She said the referendum will also include questions about the possibility of negotiating with like-minded provinces on amendments to the Constitution. Albertans will be asked about their opinions on abolishing the federal Senate, giving permission to provincial governments to advocate for control over appointing members of the judiciary and allowing provinces to opt out of federal programs without losing the funding tied to them.
“Although there are some politicians and commentators that fear direct democracy, such as referendums, I do not. I trust the judgment of Albertans,” Ms. Smith said in her televised remarks.
“I know that as a province, we will thoughtfully ponder, debate and ultimately come to a wise decision on these questions.”
Ms. Smith also warned of a large deficit that is expected to headline the provincial budget, which will be tabled next week.
The United Conservative Party government’s referendum questions focus on two issues that have recently dominated Ms. Smith’s agenda: immigration and greater Alberta autonomy. Last summer, Ms. Smith convened a group to travel the province, holding town halls to gauge residents’ interest in how the provincial government could alter its relationship with Ottawa.
That exercise informed the nine questions that will appear in the October vote, Ms. Smith said.
The referendum exercise is happening at a time when Alberta and Ottawa have been working to resolve long-standing disputes between the two over resource development and environmental regulations − part of an effort to unite the country in response to tariffs and other U.S. trade threats. But any financial gains the province might realize from future resource projects remain distant.
Despite the renewed spirit of co-operation between the two governments, Ms. Smith’s willingness to push back on Ottawa still has political purchase in her province.
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Alberta could also be facing an independence question on the October ballot if a current citizen-led effort to collect the nearly 178,000 signatures required to force a vote succeeds.
The movement captured headlines this year after independence leaders met with U.S. State Department officials, while some U.S. political officials have spoken publicly of the campaign. Immigration is one of the galvanizing topics behind the Alberta independence movement.
Ms. Smith, on Thursday evening, described her immigration proposals as “a significant departure from the status quo” requiring consent from a majority of Albertans.
It’s not yet clear whether the immigration referendum questions would be binding.
The sweeping proposals would dramatically alter how, and if, services are delivered to certain immigrants in Alberta. One question asks if voters support mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and those with an “Alberta approved immigration status” should be eligible for provincially funded programs, including health and education.
Another asks if residents support charging “a reasonable fee or premium” for health care and education to people with non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta.
“The fact is, Alberta taxpayers can no longer be asked to continue to subsidize the entire country through equalization and federal transfers, permit the federal government to flood our borders with new arrivals, and then give free access to our most-generous-in-the-country social programs to anyone who moves here,” Ms. Smith said.
The proposals mark a significant shift in thinking for the Premier who, as recently as two years ago, said her government was preparing to more than double Alberta’s population to 10 million by 2050.
Droves of people have moved to Alberta over the past five years, from inside and outside Canada.
Alberta’s population hit five million in 2025, up 14 per cent compared with the province’s headcount of 4.4 million in 2020, according to data compiled by the Alberta government, based on federal statistics.
Net migration climbed sharply between early 2021, when it was essentially flat, to peak at around 58,649 in the third quarter of 2023. Since then, Alberta’s net migration has been on a slide. The province absorbed 37,625 migrants in the first three quarters of 2025, down 73 per cent compared with the 140,490 people who came to Alberta in the same timeframe in 2024.
Just 197 international migrants landed in the province in the third quarter of 2025, a drop of 99 per cent compared with 32,046 in the same quarter in 2024.
The significant growth was partly abetted by the province’s highly successful Alberta is Calling advertising campaign, which used billboards and transit ads across Canada, tax credits and promises of a lower cost of living in an effort to entice people to move there.
The Premier described the potential program cuts to immigrants as her “short-term plan” as the province works to grow its Heritage Savings Trust Fund to $250-billion by 2050, with the goal of limiting Alberta’s reliance on resource revenues.
Ms. Smith justified the proposed immigration changes as a way to deal with Alberta’s grim economic picture without drastic cuts to social services for all citizens. In November’s fiscal update, Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner projected a $6.4-billion deficit.
“To sum up our budget challenge – low oil prices combined with out-of-control federal immigration policies are together driving unsustainable budget deficits – not just here but across the country,” Ms. Smith said.
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The Premier, in her fourth year leading the province, has long said she wants to see oil production in Alberta double by 2035 so it can pull in greater resource revenues, and last year major producers such as Suncor Energy Inc. and Cenovus Energy Inc. pumped record amounts of crude into the market.
But the fact remains that Alberta’s economy remains at the whim of international commodity prices – no matter how many barrels are pumped from the ground. Provincial coffers take an approximately $750-million hit for every $1 drop in the price of oil.
Benchmark oil prices fell by almost 20 per cent in 2025, the biggest annual loss since the height of the pandemic in 2020. And analysts expect weakened oil prices to drag through 2026 and perhaps into 2027.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said this month that it expects global benchmark oil prices to fall further in 2026 and remain under US$60 a barrel in 2027, in large part because of a massive global supply glut. It forecasts the price of West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, to fall to US$53 this year and US$49 in 2027.
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Ms. Smith said her UCP government’s budget will cut “unnecessary bureaucracy,” improve efficiencies and prioritize “needs before wants.”
Ms. Smith’s government has encouraged Albertans to take part in what she calls “direct democracy,” a type of governance – long used in Switzerland and some U.S. states including California – that allow residents to have a say on policy.
The October referendum will be among the first to tackle consequential policy in Alberta. The first-ever policy-focused vote happened in 2021, when Albertans narrowly voted against year-round Daylight Saving Time.
In that same referendum, 61 per cent of Alberta residents voted to remove equalization payments from the Canadian Constitution, but the vote was widely viewed as a political stunt because constitutional amendments require the support of at least seven provinces and 50 per cent of Canada’s population.
