Category: Uncategorized

March 25

After a bright start, the Canadian market retreated a bit, but remains in positive territory about an hour past noon on Tuesday, thanks to gains in materials, healthcare, consumer staples and energy sectors.

The mood is positive amid optimism about some tariff exemptions by the Trump administration. The U.S. President said on Monday that not all proposed levies would be enforced by April 2, with some countries potentially receiving exemptions.

The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index, which climbed to 25,454.86 at the start, was up 89.80 points or 0.35% at 25,393.91 a little while ago.
+89.80(+0.35%)

Sandstorm Gold is rising nearly 7.5%. Eldorado Gold is up 6.5%, while Ngex Minerals, Torex Gold Resources, Birchcliff Energy, New Gold, Oceanagold, Wesdome Gold Mines and Equinox Gold are up 4 to 5%.

Lundin Mining, SSR Mining, Osisko Gold, Baytex Energy, B2Gold Corp, Alamos Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines, Brookfield Business Partners, Dundee Precious Metals and Peyto Exploration are gaining 2 to 3.1%.

Descartes Systems Group is up by about 2.5% after the company said that it has acquired 3GTMS, a provider of transportation management solutions, for approximately $115 million.

• Belgium Business Confidence Unexpectedly Erodes FurtherMarch 25, 2025 11:46 ETBusiness confidence in Belgium continued to fall in March, driven by the weakness in all sectors except trade, survey data from the National Bank of Belgium showed on Tuesday.
• UK Retail Sales Decline Sharply In March: CBIMarch 25, 2025 07:44 ETUK retail sales declined sharply in March amid weaker confidence, the Distributive Trades survey results from the Confederation of British Industry showed on Tuesday. The retail sales balance fell to -41 percent in March from -23 percent in February. The balance was worse than forecast of -28 percent….
• Polish Jobless Rate Remains Stable At 3.4%March 25, 2025 06:58 ETThe unemployment rate in Poland remained stable in February after rising in the previous three months. The unemployment rate came in at 5.4 percent in February, the same as in the previous month. In the corresponding month last year, the unemployment rate was also 5.4 percent. The number of registered unemployed people rose to 846,600 in February from 837,600 in January.
• German Ifo Business Confidence At 8-Month HighMarch 25, 2025 06:31 ETGerman business confidence improved to an eight-month high in March as defense and infrastructure spending plans offset concerns about US trade policies, survey data from ifo Institute showed on Tuesday. The business climate index hit 86.7 in March, up from 85.3 in the previous month. The score was seen at 86.8. The reading was the strongest since last July.
• Spain Producer Price Inflation At 2-Year HighMarch 25, 2025 05:19 ETSpain producer prices increased at the fastest pace in two years in February on higher energy prices, the statistical office INE reported Tuesday. Producer price inflation advanced to 6.6 percent in February from 2.6 percent in January. This was the fastest growth since February 2023, when prices…
• Sweden’s Producer Price Inflation Slows Slightly To 3.4%March 25, 2025 04:44 ETProducer prices in Sweden decreased somewhat in February from a nearly 2-year high in the prior month. Producer prices in Sweden decreased somewhat in February from a nearly 2-year high in the prior month. Prices for energy-related products alone grew 8.4 percent from last year, and those for capital and consumer goods rose by 1.6 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.
• Finland Jobless Rate Falls To 9.4%March 25, 2025 02:46 ETFinland’s unemployment rate decreased marginally in February after rising to an 8-month high in the previous month. The jobless rate among the 15-74 age groups dropped to 9.4 percent in February from 9.5 percent in January. In the same month last year, the unemployment rate was 7.8 percent.
• Europe New Car Registrations Fall For Second MonthMarch 25, 2025 02:39 ETEurope’s new car registrations declined for the second straight month in February due to sharp reductions in Germany and Italy, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, or ACEA, said on Tuesday. New car sales were down 3.4 percent on a yearly basis in February, after a 2.6 percent drop in January. The German market reported the biggest monthly fall of 6.4 percent.
• European Economic News Preview: German Ifo Business Confidence DueMarch 25, 2025 01:53 ETBusiness confidence survey data from Germany is the top economic news due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news. At 4.00 am ET, Spain’s INE publishes producer prices for February. Prices had increased 2.6 percent annually in January.

• Hong Kong Trade Gap Narrows In FebruaryMarch 25, 2025 06:43 ETHong Kong’s trade deficit decreased in February from a year ago as exports grew faster than imports. The trade shortfall dropped to HK$36.3 billion in February from HK$41.6 billion in the same month last year. In January, the trade balance showed a surplus of HK$2.1 billion. The annual rise in exports was 15.4 percent in February versus only a 0.1 percent rise in January.
• Taiwan Industrial Output Growth Quickens, Retail Sales FallMarch 25, 2025 05:14 ETTaiwan’s industrial production growth rebounded sharply in February, while retail sales fell for the first time in four months. Industrial production advanced 17.91 percent yearly in February, much faster than the 4.87 percent growth in January. Retail sales fell 3.84 percent in February, in contrast to a 5.51 percent in January.
• Malaysian Leading Index Rises In JanuaryMarch 25, 2025 03:53 ETMalaysia’s leading index continued to improve in January, indicating that the economy remains on a positive trajectory. The leading index for Malaysia, which measures future economic activity, improved by 0.4 percent annually to 112.5 in January from 112.1 in December. The double-digit risess in the real imports of semiconductors and the number of housing units approved were the contributors.
• BoJ Minutes On Tap For TuesdayMarch 24, 2025 17:59 ETThe Bank of Japan will on Tuesday release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting on January 23-24, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. At the meeting, the central bank raised its short-term interest rate to the highest in 17 years, aiming for a price stability target…
• South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index Ebbs In March – BoKMarch 24, 2025 17:14 ETSouth Korea’s Composite Consumer Sentiment Index for March stood at 93.4, the Bank of Korea said on Tuesday – dipping from 95.2 in February. Consumer sentiment for current living standards was unchanged at 87, and the outlook was at 92, one point lower than in February. Consumer sentiment for future…

Monday March 24

Japan, U.K. and Euro zone PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for March.

Earnings include: BYD ADR; Diversified Royalty Corp.; Logan Energy Corp.

—

Tuesday March 25

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 city) for January. The Street expects a rise of 0.3 per cent from December and up 4.9 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for January. Consensus is a month-over-month increase 0.3 per cent andd year-over-year gain of 5.1 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for February. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 3.2 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March.

Also: Quebec budget

Earnings include: Canadian Solar Inc.; McCormick & Co. Inc.

—

Wednesday March 26

China current account surplus

U.K. CPI and Spring Budget

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable orders for February. The Street expects a decline of 1.1 per cent for January with core orders rising 0.2 per cent.

(1:30 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations for the March 12 decision.

Earnings include: BRP Inc.; Cintas Corp.; Dollar Tree Inc.; Mag Silver Corp.; Seabridge Gold Inc.

—

Thursday March 27

China industrial profits

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey: job vacancy rate for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of March 22. Estimate is 227,000, up 4,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and GDP deflator for Q4. The Street expects annualized rate rises of 2.4 per cent for both.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S goods trade deficit for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for February.

Earnings include: Lululemon Athletica Inc.; Telesat Corp.; Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.

—

Friday March 28

ECB three-year CPI expectations

Euro zone economic and consuumer confidence

Germany unemployment

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly real GDP for January. The Street expects a gain of 0.3 per cent from December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for February. Consensus is month-over-month gaims of 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for February. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.3 per cent from January and up 2.7 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March.

Earnings include: Aya Gold & Silver Inc.; Lassonde Industries Inc.

Chart Panel for Tue, Mar 25th, 2025

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans for next week that could potentially boost inflation.

Spot gold was up 0.4% to $3,024.56 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were up 0.5% to $3,029.30.

“Investors are concerned about the state of the world, especially with U.S. policies being what they are, and so they’re buying gold as an alternative asset because they’re concerned that the U.S. government may throw the world into a global recession,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, has risen more than 15% this year and reached an all-time peak of $3,057.21 on March 20.

Trump has said not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks. The Financial Times said the president is considering a two-step tariff regime next week.

Trump’s tariff policies are widely expected to weigh on economic growth, trigger further trade tensions, and drive up inflation.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he expected just one quarter-percentage-point reduction in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate by the year-end, following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision last week to keep rates on hold while hinting at half-percentage-point cut later this year.

“The odds of rate cuts are seem to be backing off a little bit and I think overall it’s still really bullish for (an)inflationary metal like gold … I would say next level up is probably around $3,125,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian and U.S. delegations are scheduled to meet on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia following Russia-U.S. talks there a day earlier on a limited Black Sea ceasefire proposal that Washington hopes will open the way for broader peace negotiations.

Spot silver gained 1.9% to $33.61 an ounce, platinum added 1.1% to $983.56 and palladium added 1.2% to $959.75.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday for a fifth day on concerns global supply will tighten after the U.S. announced tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan crude.

Brent crude futures were up 27 cents to $73.27 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 26 cents to $69.37.

Both benchmarks gained more than 1% in the previous session after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela. Oil is Venezuela’s main export and China, which is already the subject of U.S. tariffs, is its largest buyer.

This move could mean a fairly sizeable tightening in the global oil balance, ING analysts wrote in a note on Tuesday.

They added oil, along with broader risk assets, also benefited from suggestions the Trump administration may take a more targeted approach with reciprocal tariffs the U.S. is set to enact on April 2.

“Investors fear Trump’s various tariffs could slow the economy and curb oil demand, but the prospect of tighter U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian oil constraining supply, along with his swift policy shifts, make it difficult to take large positions,” said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

“We expect WTI to stay around $70 for the rest of the year, with potential seasonal gains as the U.S. and other countries enter the driving season,” he added.

Last week, the U.S. issued new sanctions intended to hit Iranian oil exports.

The Trump administration also on Monday extended a deadline to May 27 for U.S. producer Chevron to wind down operations in Venezuela.

The withdrawal of Chevron’s license to operate could reduce production in the country by about 200,000 barrels per day, according to ANZ analysts.

Trump also said automobile tariffs are coming soon even as he indicated that not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks, a move Wall Street took as a sign of flexibility on a matter that has roiled markets for weeks.

Meanwhile, OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, will likely stick to its plan to raise oil output for a second consecutive month in May, four sources told Reuters, amid steady oil prices and plans to force some members to reduce pumping to compensate for past overproduction.

• The Conference Board’s measure for future expectations tumbled 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years.
• The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/consumer-confidence-in-where-the-economy-is-headed-hits-12-year-low.html

​The impending U.S. tariffs, scheduled to take effect on April 2, 2025, are poised to have significant repercussions on the Canadian economy. Key anticipated impacts include:​

Economic Growth and Potential Recession:

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised Canada’s economic growth forecasts downward, projecting a growth rate of 0.7% for both 2025 and 2026, a decrease from previous estimates. The OECD warns that sustained tariffs could push Canada into a recession within six months, with potential job losses reaching up to 100,000 positions in provinces like Quebec. ​MarketWatchWikipedia

Inflationary Pressures:

The Bank of Canada is actively monitoring the situation to prevent tariff-induced price increases from becoming widespread. In February 2025, Canada’s inflation rate rose to 2.6%, surpassing expectations. The central bank acknowledges that tariffs could exacerbate inflationary trends, complicating efforts to maintain its 2% inflation target. ​WSJ

Currency Volatility:

The Canadian dollar has experienced fluctuations amid tariff uncertainties. For instance, on March 21, 2025, the loonie saw a slight decline against the U.S. dollar, influenced by falling retail sales and ongoing tariff concerns. Despite these challenges, the currency managed a modest gain for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly increase. ​Reuters+1Reuters+1

Government Response and Trade Diversification:

In reaction to the tariffs, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized the need to bolster internal trade and reduce reliance on the U.S. market. The government aims to achieve free internal trade by July 1, 2025, to mitigate the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs. Additionally, relief packages are being prepared for those affected by the trade conflict, and efforts are underway to expedite resource projects, including a proposed oil pipeline from Alberta to Eastern Canada. ​Reuters+1Financial Times+1AP News

Sector-Specific Impacts:

• Agriculture: The tariffs are expected to increase input costs for Canadian farmers, particularly for fertilizers like potash, which are subject to new U.S. duties. This could lead to reduced profitability and shifts in crop selection. ​Midland Daily News
• Manufacturing: Industries such as steel and aluminum are directly targeted by the tariffs, potentially leading to increased production costs and reduced competitiveness in international markets. ​New York Post
• Consumer Goods: The tariffs may result in higher prices for various consumer products, including groceries and household items, as increased import costs are passed on to consumers. ​Business Insider

In summary, the April 2 U.S. tariffs are expected to pose substantial challenges to the Canadian economy, affecting growth, inflation, currency stability, and specific sectors. The Canadian government’s proactive measures aim to mitigate these impacts through internal trade enhancements and strategic economic policies.​Reuters