Executive Summary

• S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index gained approximately +2.9% for the week ending May 8, 2026
• Sector materially outperformed the broader S&P/TSX Composite Index (+0.6%)
• Performance was driven mainly by:
  • Retail earnings strength
  • Consumer resilience
  • Select apparel and discount retail names
• Major contributors included:
  • Aritzia Inc.
  • Dollarama Inc.
  • Restaurant Brands International Inc.
• Volatility remained elevated due to oil-price pressure on consumers and concerns around economic slowing

---

TTCD Performance — Week Ending May 8, 2026

Metric	Result
Weekly Performance	~+2.9%
May 1 Close	~395.96
May 8 Close	~399.05
Weekly Range	387.83 – 401.34
Weekly Trend	Positive / volatile

S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index

Based on historical data:

• May 1 close: ~395.96
• May 8 close: ~399.05
• Intraworkweek rebound from May 4 weakness drove positive weekly performance

---

Daily Performance Snapshot

Date	Close	Daily Move
May 8	399.05	+1.10%
May 7	394.70	-0.19%
May 6	395.46	+0.39%
May 5	393.92	+1.57%
May 4	387.83	-2.05%

---

Key Drivers

1) Strong Retail Earnings

The biggest catalyst was earnings:

• Aritzia Inc. rose ~4.5% after beating estimates
• Discount and branded retail continued outperforming

This helped offset broader market volatility.

---

2) Consumer Spending Resilience

Despite:

• higher oil prices
• elevated borrowing costs
• weaker employment data

Canadian discretionary spending held up better than expected.

Strong areas:

• discount retail
• apparel
• restaurants

---

3) Rate Expectations Stabilized

Canadian employment weakness reduced concerns about additional rate hikes:

• Lower yields supported consumer-sensitive equities
• Improved sentiment toward retail and discretionary spending names

---

4) Shopify Volatility Limited Gains

The sector could have performed even better, but:

• Shopify Inc. fell sharply (~15.6% on May 5) after soft guidance

That weighed heavily on:

• TSX technology
• broader growth sentiment

Importantly:

• SHOP is not a core TTCD constituent, but sentiment spillover impacted consumer-growth names.

---

Major TTCD Constituents (Representative)

Company	Theme
Dollarama Inc.	Defensive consumer
Restaurant Brands International Inc.	QSR resilience
Magna International Inc.	Auto cyclicals
Aritzia Inc.	Apparel momentum
Gildan Activewear Inc.	Consumer apparel

---

Valuation Logic

The weekly move was driven mainly by:

• Earnings revisions
• Lower-rate expectations
• Rotation into selective consumer names

Not driven by:

• Broad economic optimism
• Strong wage growth
• Broad consumer acceleration

---

Risks

Risk	Impact on TTCD
Higher oil prices	Reduces consumer spending power
Weak employment trend	Retail slowdown risk
Sticky inflation	Margin compression
Consumer credit deterioration	Discretionary demand risk
Weak housing market	Consumer confidence pressure

---

Bull / Base / Bear Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)

Bull

• Rates stabilize
• Consumers remain resilient
• TTCD retests highs near 405–410

Base

• Sideways volatile trading
• Defensive retail outperforms cyclical retail

Bear

• Consumer spending weakens materially
• TTCD retraces toward 380–385

---

What Would Disprove Current Strength

• Discount retailers begin missing earnings
• Consumer credit losses rise materially
• Oil prices remain elevated while retail margins weaken
• Wage growth slows further

---

Actionable Takeaways

• TTCD outperformed the TSX this week largely due to:
  • apparel earnings
  • defensive retail
  • falling rate fears
• Leadership remains selective, not broad
• Watch:
  • Canadian employment data
  • oil prices
  • consumer spending trends
  • retail earnings revisions