Author: Consultant

  • Trump team holds ‘constructive’ face-to-face nuclear talks with Iran, will meet again next weekend

    The talks took place on the outskirts of Oman’s capital, Muscat, and lasted just over two hours. Omani Foreign Minister Said Badr hosted the meeting. 

    Iranian state TV later confirmed the sides exchanged several rounds of messages, and there was a short, direct conversation between the American and Iranian diplomats.

    Military pressure appears to be a big reason Iran came to the table. Rebecca Grant, a senior fellow at the Lexington Institute, told the “Fox Report” Saturday the U.S. has sent a clear signal by moving powerful military assets into the region.

    TRUMP DEMANDS DO-OR-DIE NUCLEAR TALKS WITH IRAN. WHO HAS THE LEVERAGE? 

    “All the options are not only on the table. They’re all deployed to the Middle East,” Grant said. “Somewhere between four and six B-2 stealth bombers [are] forward in Diego Garcia, [along with] two aircraft carriers. That has really gotten Iran’s attention.”

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-team-holds-constructive-nuclear-talks-iran-meet-again-next-weekend

  • Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs

    • Smartphones and computers will be exempted from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
    • Trump earlier this month imposed 145% tariffs on products from China, a move that was poised to take a toll on tech companies like Apple, which makes most of its other products in China.
    • The guidance also includes exclusions for other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, flash drives, memory cards and solid-state drives used for storing data.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

  • Calendar: April 14 – April 18

    Monday April 14

    China trade surplus, aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans

    Japan industrial production

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for February. Estimate is a month-over-month rise of 0.4 per cent (versus a gain of 1.2 per cent in January).

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for February. Estimate is a year-over-year drop of 8.0 per cent.

    Earnings include: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; M&T Bank Corp.; PrairieSky Royalty Ltd.; Well Health Technologies Corp.

    Tuesday April 15

    Euro zone industrial production

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for March. Estimate is an annualized increase of 0.4 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s CPI for March. The Street projects a month-over-month gain of 0.7 per cent an a year-over-year rise of 2.7 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canaa’s manufacturing sales and new orders for February. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 0.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices of March. Consensus is a flat reading from February and up 1.4 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s existing home sales and average prices for March. Estimates are year-over-year drops of 10.0 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for March. Estimate is a decline of 1.5 per cent year-over-year.

    Earnings include: Bank of America Corp.; Citigroup Inc.; Groupe Dynamite Inc.; Johnson & Johnson; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; Rio Tinto ADR; United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    Wednesday April 16

    China GDP, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment

    Japan core machine orders

    Euro zone CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for March. Consensus is a gain of 1.4 per cent from February (or 0.4 per cent excluding automobiles)

    (9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for March.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement and Monetary Policy Report with press conference to follow.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for April.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for February.

    (1:30 p.m. TE) U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks to the Economic Club of Chicago.

    (8 p.m. ET) Canada’s federal leaders debate (French)

    Earnings include: Abbott Laboratories; Alcoa Corp.; BHP Group Ltd. ADR; CSX Corp.; Kinder Morgan Inc.; Metro Inc.; Progressive Corp.; Prologis Inc.; U.S. Bancorp.

    Thursday April 17

    Japan trade surplus

    ECB monetary policy meeting

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for February.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s household and mortgage credit for February.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of April 12. Estimate is 226,000, up 3,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for March. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 5.4 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for March. Consensus is an annualize rate drop of 0.6 per cent.

    (7 p.m. ET) Canada’s federal leaders debate (English)

    Earnings include: Blackstone Inc.; Charles Schwab Corp.; DR Horton Inc.; Hermes International SA; L’Oreal ADR; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. Ltd.; Truist Financial Corp.; UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    Friday April 18

    Japan CPI

    Euro zone markets closed

    Canadian markets closed

    U.S. stock markets closed with limited bond market activity

  • China reaches out to other nations as Trump layers on tariffs

    China is reaching out to other nations as the U.S. layers on more tariffs in what appears to be an attempt to form a united front to compel Washington to retreat. Days into the effort, it’s meeting only partial success with many countries unwilling to ally with the main target of President Donald Trump’s trade war.

    Facing the cratering of global markets, Trump on Wednesday backed off his tariffs on most nations for 90 days, saying countries were lining up to negotiate more favorable conditions.

    China has refused to seek talks, saying it would “fight to the end” in a tariff war, prompting Trump to further jack up the tax rate on Chinese imports to 125 per cent. China has retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods of 84 per cent, which took effect Thursday.

    Trump’s move was seemingly an attempt to narrow what had been an unprecedented trade war between the U.S. and most of the world to a showdown between the U.S. and China.

    “A just cause receives support from many,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a daily briefing on Thursday. “The U.S. cannot win the support of the people and will end in failure.”

    China has thus far focused on Europe, with a phone call between Premier Li Qiang and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “sending a positive message to the outside world.”

    “China is willing to work with the EU to jointly implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of China and the EU, strengthen communication and exchanges, and deepen China-EU trade, investment and industrial cooperation,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

    Analysis: American hypocrisy: Trump attacks countries for ‘cheating’ on trade – but the U.S. does it too

    That was followed by a video conference between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security efovi on Tuesday to discuss the U.S. “reciprocal tariffs.”

    Wang said the tariffs “seriously infringe upon the legitimate interests of all countries, seriously violate WTO rules, seriously damage the rules-based multilateral trading system, and seriously impact the stability of the global economic order,” Xinhua said.

    “It is a typical act of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying,” Wang said quoted as saying.

    “China is willing to resolve differences through consultation and negotiation, but if the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end,” Wang said.

    Wang has also spoken with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while Li, the premier, has met with business leaders. China has “already made a full evaluation and is prepared to deal with all kinds of uncertainties, and will introduce incremental policies according to the needs of the situation,” Xinhua quoted Li as saying.

    In Hong Kong, the spokesperson for the local office of China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated Beijing’s unwillingness to negotiate with the U.S. under current conditions.

    “We must solemnly tell the U.S.: a tariff-wielding barbarian who attempts to force countries to call and beg for mercy can never expect that call from China,” Huang Jingrui wrote in an op-ed appearing in the South China Morning Post.

    If the U.S. is truly sincere about starting a dialogue with China, it should “immediately rectify its wrong practices and adopt the right attitude of equality, respect and mutual benefit,” Huang wrote.

    Despite their unhappiness with Washington, not all countries are interested in linking up with China, especially those with a history of disputes with Beijing.

    “We speak for ourselves, and Australia’s position is that free and fair trade is a good thing,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters. “We engage with all countries, but we stand up for Australia’s national interest and we stand on our own two feet.”

    China imposed a series of official and unofficial trade barriers against Australia in 2020 after the government angered Beijing by calling for an independent inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic.

    India has also reportedly turned down a Chinese call for cooperation, and Russia, typically seen as China’s closest geopolitical partner, has been left out of the Trump tariffs altogether. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Wednesday that his government is preparing for talks on tariffs with the U.S.

    The U.S. imposed a 32 per cent tariff on imports from Taiwan, a close trading and security partner. Taiwan produces most of the high-performing computer chips craved by the U.S. and others and has long enjoyed a trade surplus with Washington.

    Yet, Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and Cambodia find themselves in a particular bind. They benefited when factories moved to their countries from China due to rising costs. They are being hit by punishing tariffs but have few buyers outside the U.S. and are already operating on razor-thin margins.

    Trump had previously denied contemplating a pause, but the drama over his tariffs will continue as the administration prepares to engage in country-by-country negotiations. Meanwhile, tariffs will be 10 per cent for the countries where the larger ones were paused.

    It’s not clear what further steps China will take, but the Foreign Ministry’s Lin said China “will not sit idly by and let the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese people be deprived of, nor will we allow the international trade rules and multilateral trading system to be undermined.” Non-tariff options include bans on American movies, American law firms and other trade in services.

    World markets soared on Thursday, with Japan’s benchmark jumping more than 9 per cent, as investors welcomed Trump’s decision Germany’s DAX initially gained more than 8 per cent. It was up 7.5 per cent at 21,141.53 a bit later, while the CAC 40 in Paris gained 7.2 per cent to 7,360.23. Britain’s FTSE 100 surged 5.4 per cent to 8,090.02.

    However, U.S. futures edged lower and oil prices also declined. Chinese shares saw more moderate gains, given yet another jump in the tariffs each side is imposing on each others’ exports.

    The future for the S&P 500 was down 0.4 per while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.2 per cent lower.

  • U.S. crude oil tumbles more than 6%, trades below $56 as China imposes retaliatory tariffs

    April 9/25 at 8.00 AM EST

    U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 6% on Wednesday, as China slapped retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. after President Donald Trump’s sweeping levies took effect.

    The U.S. benchmark dropped $4.01, or 6.7%, to $55.57 per barrel by 7:53 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent tumbled $4.04, or 6.4%, to $58.78.

    The oil sell-off took a leg lower after Beijing announced tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods in response to Trump’s levies. China’s tariffs take effect on April 10.

    Traders are worried the world is descending into a full-blown trade war that will trigger a recession, hitting crude oil demand. OPEC+, meanwhile, has agreed to accelerate output in May, which will bring more oil to a market that was already facing a surplus.

    The collision of recession fears and growing oil supply is a “toxic cocktail,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC on Tuesday.

    The U.S. and Iran are scheduled to hold talks in Oman on Saturday to discuss the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Successful negotiations could result in more Iranian oil entering the global market.

  • Canada to impose tariffs of 25% on vehicles imported from U.S. starting Wednesday

    The federal government said its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. vehicles, which it announced last week with no implementation date, would take effect early Wednesday. The move marks an escalation of the Canada-U.S. trade war in the middle of a federal election campaign, and could increase the price of U.S.-made autos by as much as 25 per cent.

    The countertariffs are the first imposed by Mark Carney since he became Prime Minister, and the first enacted during Canada’s 45th general election campaign, which ends with voting on April 28. Responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his repeated talk of making Canada the 51st state has been central to Mr. Carney’s strategy in the campaign, in which his Liberals are polling ahead of their Conservative competition.

    Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced the retaliatory auto tariffs would apply as of 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday. The federal government had promised this response after Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on foreign-made automobiles, including from Canada, but had not yet followed through until Tuesday’s abrupt announcement.

    “Canada continues to respond forcefully to all unwarranted and unreasonable tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Canadian products,” Mr. Champagne said in a statement. “The government is firmly committed to getting these U.S. tariffs removed as soon as possible, and will protect Canada’s workers, businesses, economy and industry.”

    Canada had already imposed countertariffs on about $60-billion worth of U.S. imports in response to levies enacted by Mr. Trump earlier this year on a broad range of goods, including Canadian steel and aluminum.

    A trade dispute involving the North American auto sector will not only cost consumers more, but also threatens to damage the structure of an industry that relies on an integrated supply chain across the United States, Canada and Mexico.

    Up to 60 per cent of cars purchased in Canada each year are imported from the United States, according to Flavio Volpe, president of the Auto Parts Manufacturers’ Association. He said Canada is the among the largest export markets for American-made cars, and estimated about 1.2 million vehicles are imported from the United States every year.

    The tariffs will be 25 per cent on the portion of each vehicle imported from the U.S. that did not originate in Canada or Mexico, in cases where the manufacturing complies with the rules of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). It will also be 25 per cent on each fully assembled vehicle imported from the U.S. where the automobile’s manufacturing does not comply with USMCA rules.

    These countermeasures will remain in place until the U.S. eliminates its tariffs against the Canadian auto sector, the federal Finance Department said in a statement.

    The government said duties collected will be used to benefit the Canadian auto sector. Vehicle imports from the U.S. totalled $35.6-billion in 2024, Finance said. Last week, Mr. Carney estimated these retaliatory tariffs would collect $8-billion on an annual basis.

    Mr. Volpe said Canadians could end up paying 15 per cent to 25 per cent more for a vehicle imported from the United States depending on what portion of the automobile is not Canadian or Mexican content.

    On April 3, Mr. Trump imposed tariffs of 25 per cent on Canadian automobiles and light trucks and vowed another 25-per-cent tariff on some Canadian auto parts starting May 3. The tariffs on Canadian-made autos will be reduced based on their U.S.-made content. Most of the vehicles assembled at Ontario’s plants have about 50-per-cent U.S. content.

    Mr. Volpe said he believes Canada’s retaliation is justified, even though it will increase prices for cars in Canada. “It will hurt,” he said, but he added that the U.S. will feel the pressure too. “It’s important not to leave these things unanswered,” he said of U.S. protectionism.

    He noted that Ottawa’s retaliation, at least for now, does not include counter-tariffs on U.S. auto parts.

    The caretaker convention guides the federal government after Parliament has been dissolved and an election called. This means government is supposed to limit itself to routine matters or urgent events but generally not take steps that bind a future government.

    Brian Clow, who served as deputy chief of staff to then-prime minister Justin Trudeau, defended Mr. Carney’s decision to impose tariffs during an election campaign.

    The Prime Minister was responding to new U.S. tariffs imposed on Canada during the campaign, he noted.

    “It’s well-established that the Prime Minister and cabinet can act during a crisis, and I would say that this is a clear crisis,” Mr. Clow said.

    Vic Fedeli, Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, was in Washington on Monday and Tuesday, lobbying for an end to all the tariffs imposed on Canadian cars and trucks, steel and aluminum – and for the scrapping of the American plan, set to go into effect May 3, to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on non-U.S. auto parts.

    In an interview, Mr. Fedeli said he met with automotive industry representatives from both sides of the border and two Republican members of Congress – New York’s Claudia Tenney and Indiana’s Rudy Yakym. He also met with officials in the office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

    He says that in addition to making the case against all of the President’s tariffs on Canada, he is also focusing in the short term on convincing the U.S. to leave Canadian auto parts untouched by additional levies.

    Mr. Fedeli says his message to U.S. officials is that this will be far too complicated and too damaging to the auto industry’s integrated supply chains that see some car parts cross the border multiple times.

    “Nobody can figure out how to do that. It’s so complicated that what we’ve said to them is ‘Look, leave the parts the way they are.’ This is really our message,” Mr. Fedeli said. “You really can’t delve into trying to unscramble that omelette.”

    He said so far, the U.S. officials he has met with seem receptive and understand Ontario’s point of view.

    Echoing Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s comments last week, Mr. Fedeli said he supported Mr. Carney’s move to impose retaliatory 25-per-cent tariffs on the non-Canadian portion of U.S.-made cars and trucks.

    “The people of Canada expect that. We did that last time, in Trump 1.0, we put reciprocal tariffs, we fought back,” Mr. Fedeli said. “And I think they’re a step in the right direction, of course.”

  • North American stock market volatility continues after China retaliates with an 84% tariff on U.S. goods

    North American stock markets were sinking again in early trading on Wednesday after massive U.S. tariffs against China kicked in overnight, followed by China retaliating with a huge tariff increase on U.S. imports. Oil prices tumbled to their lowest level in more than four years and a huge sell-off in U.S. Treasuries sent bond yields soaring.

    Canada’s main stock index opened lower on Wednesday, with energy stocks leading the losses.

    At 9:31 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 0.7% at 22,361.22 points.

    TSX Composite Index

    22,506.90-1,873.81 (-7.69%)

    Past month

    March 10

    24,380.71

    April 8

    22,506.90

    SOURCE: BARCHART

    In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 257.7 points, or 0.68%, at the open to 37,387.91. The S&P 500 fell 17.5 points, or 0.35%, at the open to 4,965.28, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 27.5 points, or 0.18%, to 15,295.441 at the opening bell. (

    In contrast to the rest of the world, markets in China reversed toward small gains Wednesday after that country responded with an 84% tariff on U.S. goods, in retaliation for U.S. President Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy that went into effect at midnight Wednesday.

    Beijing also added an array of countermeasures after Trump’s massive tariffs on China kicked in.

    “If the U.S. insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end,” the Ministry of Commerce wrote in a statement introducing its white paper on trade with the U.S.

    Massive share buybacks by big state-run investment funds and other state companies that often are instructed to support Chinese markets in times of crisis helped boost stock prices.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.7%, while the Shanghai Composite index closed 1.3% higher.

    Prices for U.S. crude oil skidded more than 5% to $56.38 per barrel, their lowest level since the February of 2021 when the U.S. and global economies were still emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. Rapidly falling oil prices often signal investor pessimism about economic growth and can signal a recession ahead.

    Brent crude, the European standard, gave back $3.29 to $59.53 per barrel.

    A sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries compounded the gloom around Trump’s tariffs and the damage they’re expected to cause the global economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury — normally considered a safe haven during volatile equity markets — jumped 17 basis points to 4.44% early Wednesday.

    Delta Air Lines pulled its guidance for 2025 Wednesday as the trade war scrambles expectations for business and household spending and depresses bookings across the travel sector.

    “With broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled,” CEO Ed Bastian said in a statement on Wednesday. “In this slower-growth environment, we are protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what we can control.”

    The airline’s profit for the most recent quarter came in better than Wall Street expected, sending Delta shares up 4.7% in early trading.

    The airline sector has been battered this year as investors, anticipating rising tariffs, put their money elsewhere. Shares are down 41% this year for the nation’s most profitable airline, which is better than rivals American and United.

    Shares of pharmaceutical companies were also hit hard after Trump said Tuesday night that he plans tariffs on pharmaceuticals so that more medications would be made in the U.S.

    Pfizer and Merck each lost more than 2.5%. Most other big drugmakers were also down, including Johnson & Johnson, Bristol Myers Squib and Eli Lilly.

    The escalating global trade war — particularly between the U.S. and China — has sent markets careening this year with uncertainty about how the global economy would hold up to America’s new isolationist trade policy.

    Analysts predict that markets will have more swings up and down given uncertainty over how long Trump will keep the stiff tariffs on imports, which will raise prices for U.S. shoppers and slow the economy. If they persist, economists and investors expect them to cause a recession. If Trump lowers them through negotiations relatively quickly, the worst-case scenario might be avoided.

    Hope still remains on Wall Street that negotiations may be possible, which helped drive the morning’s rally. Trump said Tuesday that a conversation with South Korea’s acting president helped them reach the “confines and probability of a great DEAL for both countries.”

    Trump’s trade war is an attack on the globalization that’s shaped the world’s economy and helped bring down prices for products on store shelves but also caused manufacturing jobs to leave for other countries. Trump has said he wants to narrow trade deficits, which measure how much more the United States imports from other countries than it sends to them as exports.

    Markets in Europe also extended their losses, with Germany’s DAX sliding 4.1%. In Paris, the CAC 40 declined 3.9% and Britain’s FTSE 100 gave up 3.8%.

    Elsewhere, markets remained gloomy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 3.9% lower, at 31,714.03 and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba convened a meeting of top financial ministers to reiterate his call for them to do what they can to mitigate the damage from tariffs to Japanese auto makers and other manufacturers.

    Taiwan led the losses in Asia, as its Taiex plunged 5.8%. Big Tech industries were among the biggest decliners. Computer chip giant TSMC Corp. dropped 3.8% while iPhone maker Hon Hai Precision Industry plunged 10%.

    In India, the Sensex declined 0.5% as the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate, while Bangkok’s SET shed 0.8%.

    South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.7% to 2,293.70, and the government said it would provide help for its beleaguered auto makers. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia declined 1.8% to 7,375.00. Shares in New Zealand also fell.

    The Associated Press and Reuters