Author: Consultant

  • Donald Trump

    What to expect from the Trump-Putin call on Ukraine war

    President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he will likely be speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, and the White House have since confirmed the call.

    Trump is eager to fulfill his campaign promise by making a deal with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, which he has called a “bloodbath.”

    Here’s what to expect and what not to expect from their conversation.

    Both Trump and Putin will likely remain cordial and respectful to each other, continuing to showcase their skills and talents in diplomacy. Unlike former President Biden and his VP Kamala Harris, who frequently got exasperated by Putin’s recalcitrance, calling him a “killer,” Trump does not insult Putin. The master of the Art of the Deal knows how to dance the waltz of diplomacy. 

    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/what-to-expect-from-trump-putin-call-ukraine-war

  • Canadian breweries face $330-million annual cost hike as aluminum tariffs hit beer cans

    Canada’s beer industry will be hit with a $330-million increase to the annual cost of cans if U.S. President Donald Trump refuses to back down from the 25-per-cent tariff he slapped on Canada’s aluminum industry last week.

    Aluminum beer cans are currently subject to double tariffs, with the United States imposing a 25-per-cent tariff on raw aluminum imports last week, and the Canadian government levying a 25-per-cent tariff on $30-billion worth of goods imported from the U.S. – including finished beer cans or flattened sheets of aluminum that can be made into cans.

    For Canadian breweries, the tariffs by both governments mean the cost of doing business will surge owing to the number of border crossings their cans make before hitting store shelves. Beer Canada president CJ Hélie says tariffs will cost his industry an additional $330-million a year.

    “This is a universal concern among every brewer in the country right now,” said Mr. Hélie, whose association has 50 members who account for 90 per cent of all domestic beer brewed in the country. “Canada used to primarily be a refillable [glass] bottle market, and over the last few decades the market has converted to primarily be an aluminum can market.”

    Today, 85 per cent of packaged beer in Canada is sold in cans, many sourced from a handful of major manufacturers in the U.S.

    Last year, Canada exported more than $10.6-billion worth of unwrought – meaning minimally processed – aluminum to the U.S., which was Canada’s top export market for the product by a long shot.

    In 2024, Canadian brewers used about 3.7 billion cans, of which almost 20 per cent were American-made. Although Canada is the source for much of the raw aluminum that is later used to make beer cans of all sizes, its manufacturing capacity sorely lacks key tooling components widely available in the U.S.

    Mr. Hélie said Canada does not operate any aluminum rolling mills: facilities that produce large, flat sheets of aluminum that are then cut and formed into aluminum beverage cans.

    This interdependence between the two countries means a can is likely to cross the border at least twice on its journey from mine to six-pack, so consumers paying for the final product could see the trickle-down effect of a double tariff.

    Erich Schmidt, a spokesperson for the Canadian Beverage Association, said there are two principal suppliers for aluminum cans in the non-alcoholic market. Both of those companies have manufacturing facilities in Canada, but the aluminum sheets and lids come from the U.S.

    Mr. Schmidt, whose association represents 90 per cent of the non-alcoholic beverage producers in Canada, declined to comment on how much tariffs could add to the price of cans for the sector, but said as “aluminum prices rise, so does the cost of aluminum beverage containers.”

    At Superflux Beer Co. in Vancouver, the specialty brews are served in U.S.-made cans. “Every craft brewery in Canada that you can buy a 16-ounce (473-millilitre) can from, those cans are not made in Canada,” co-founder Adam Henderson said.

    Canadian manufacturers exist for certain sizes of cans, Mr. Henderson says, but their supply is spoken for by brands much larger than his.

    Owing to his brewery’s size, Mr. Henderson said he has to go through a Canadian distributor to buy his tallboy cans, which are made almost exclusively by manufacturers in the U.S.

    “It’s not just that we can’t get cans, but it’s also, as an industry, we’ve been facing a squeeze,” he said.

    Toronto-based craft brewer Steam Whistle Brewing Co. said its 16-oz. tallboy can has become the container of choice among customers. But no Canadian manufacturers make those cans, so the company says it could see $1-million in additional annual costs if the trade war bleeds into the busy summer beer season.

    Steam Whistle president Bromlyn Bethune said the company was lucky enough to stockpile three months’ worth of pretariff priced inventory. However, she has already been notified by its lid supplier that the next invoice will include tariff-affected prices.

    “As a craft brewer, this is extremely challenging,” she said.

    Beer Canada’s Mr. Hélie says many small breweries couldn’t stockpile because of a lack of storage space and cash flow, leaving them vulnerable to tariff pricing. The price of aluminum has already jumped almost 80 per cent since January, he added.

    Ms. Bethune says increasing the price of a six pack is out of the question, particularly for Steam Whistle, which is already a high-end premium craft beer.

    “We don’t want to outprice ourselves on the market during a time when consumers are going to be feeling this all around them.”

    To mitigate costs, Steam Whistle and other breweries want to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers, and have asked the Ontario government to re-examine the taxes paid by craft brewers in the province, which Ms. Bethune said are among the highest in the country.

    Steam Whistle pays $5-million more a year in provincial tax than a brewery of the equivalent size in Quebec, she said.

    “And as a craft brewer, we believe Canadian products should be taxed evenly and fairly across the country when we’re all dealing with what’s coming at us as businesses,” Ms. Bethune added.

    Mr. Hélie is hoping the industry will recoup some of its losses if Ottawa returns a portion of what it receives in countertariffs, as it did in 2018, when Mr. Trump imposed a 10-per-cent aluminum tariff.

    Supply chains for cider and wine are being sucked into the same tariff trap, and producers also want Ottawa to help.

    John Boynton, president and chief executive officer of Arterra Wines Canada, which owns and distributes more than 100 brands, including Growers Cider, and Jackson-Triggs and Open wines, said the cans and bottles used to package these products are made in the U.S.

    He said the tariffs affecting canned products have left him in an impossible situation, and he fears bottles could be next. “It’s too big of a number to absorb,” he said.

    Shifting his supply chain isn’t a viable option because of the limited number of manufacturers and the time it takes to test out new packaging for products, he said.

    For now, his plan involves talking to suppliers and calling on the government for an exemption. Like Steam Whistle, passing on the cost to consumers is out of the question.

    “What we’re telling everybody is hold the line on costs. No increases in costs any more. We don’t think consumers can take it.”

  • Canada’s annual inflation rate jumps to 2.6% in February as GST holiday ends

    Canada’s annual inflation rate showed a surprise jump to 2.6 per cent in February, surpassing expectations as a sales tax break that ended in the middle of last month pushed prices higher amid an already broad-based increase, data showed on Tuesday.

    This is the first time in seven months that the rate of increase of consumer prices has crossed the 2 per cent mark, the midpoint of the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent. In January, inflation was at 1.9 per cent.

    Without the tax break, inflation in February would have been 3 per cent, Statistics Canada said.

    The inflation number expanded currency market bets for a pause in the interest-rate-cutting cycle next month to over 70 per cent from 59 per cent before the numbers were released.

    The Canadian dollar firmed after the data and was trading up 0.06 per cent at 1.4283 to the U.S. dollar, or 70.01 U.S. cents. Yields on the two-year government bond surged by 5.7 basis points to 2.596 per cent.

    On a month-on-month basis, prices rose by 1.1 per cent in February from 0.1 per cent the prior month, Statscan said.

    Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the yearly inflation at 2.2 per cent and 0.6 per cent on a monthly basis in February. The BoC had said last week that it expected inflation to reach 2.5 per cent in March amid price pressures due to tariff-related uncertainty.

    While prices increased across almost the entire CPI basket, the major jump was in food purchased at restaurants, some clothing items and alcohol after the tax reprieve was lifted.

    “Restaurant food prices contributed the most to the acceleration in the all-items CPI in February,” Statscan said.

    Food prices increased 1.3 per cent year over year while clothing and footwear increased by 1.4 per cent on a yearly basis. Other items that added to price pressures in the CPI basket were transportation, which jumped by 3 per cent, and shelter costs, which were up 4.2 per cent.

    Economists have said that the sales tax break had distorted overall inflation numbers, and that core inflation was a more accurate gauge of consumer price trends.

    The BoC has two preferred measures of core inflation: CPI-median and CPI-trim.

    CPI-median, or the centremost component of the CPI basket when arranged in an order of increasing prices, rose to 2.9 per cent in February. CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, was also up to 2.9 per cent. Both were at 2.7 per cent in January.

  • Economic Calendar: Mar 17 – Mar 21

    Monday March 17

    China industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment

    (8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for February. Estimate is an annualized rate rise of 4.3 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s construction investment for January.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for January.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for February. The Street is forecasting a rise of 0.7 per cent from January and up 0.4 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canadian existing home sales and average prices for February. Estimates are year-over-year declines of 11.0 per cent and 1.0 per cent. respectively.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for February. Estimate is a flat reading year-over-year.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for January. Consensus is a month-over-month increase of 0.3 per cent.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for March.

    Earnings include: Cardinal Energy Ltd.; K92 Mining Inc.

    Tuesday March 18

    Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting (through Wednesday)

    Euro zone trade surplus

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s CPI for February. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.6 per cent from January and up 2.2 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for February. Consensus is an annualized rate increase of 0.7 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for February. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 1.6 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for February. The Street is expecting a gain of 0.1 per cent from January and up 1.5 per cent year-over-year.

    (9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for February. Consensus is a rise of 0.2 per cent from January with capacity utilization remaining 77.8 per cent.

    Also: U.S. Fed meeting begins

    Earnings include: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.; Ivanhoe Electric Inc.; Orla Mining Ltd.

    Wednesday March 19

    Japan trade balance, core machine orders, industrial production and machine tool orders

    Euro zone CPI and labour costs

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s population estimates from Q4 of 2024.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement with chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.

    Earnings include: General Mills Inc.; Power Corp. of Canada; Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.

    Thursday March 20

    China’s markets closed

    ECB economic bulletin is released

    Bank of England monetary policy meeting

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s IPPI and RMPI for February.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for January.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of March 15. Estimate is 225,000, up 5,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. current account deficit for Q4.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for February. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 3.4 per cent.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for February.

    (1:05 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem speaks to Calgary Economic Development.

    Earnings include: Accenture PLC; Cintas Corp.; FedEx Corp.; Lennar Corp.; Micron Technology Inc.; Nike Inc.; Skeena Resources Ltd.

    Friday March 21

    China CPI

    Euro zone consumer confidence

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for January. Estimate is a decline of 0.4 per cent from December (or flat excluding automobiles).

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for February. Estimates are 0.1-per-cent declines from January and year-over-year.

    Earnings include: Dentalcorp Holdings Ltd.

  • The U.S.-Canada trade war could signal a shift in economic ties, experts say

    • President Donald Trump has escalated a trade dispute with Canada by implementing a blanket 25% tariff on Canadian goods imported into the United States, with some exceptions.
    • The United States and Canada have long been allies and trading partners due to shared global interest and physical proximity.
    • Experts warn that shifting trade policies could make the U.S. an unreliable partner, impacting future economic ties with Canada.

    The future of U.S.-Canada trade after tariff escalation

  • America is not Canada,’ Prime Minister Mark Carney says in rebuke to Trump

    • Canada’s new prime minister rejected the idea repeatedly voiced by President Donald Trump that the nation would become the 51st U.S. state.
    • “We will never, ever, in any way, shape or form, be part of the United States,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said after being sworn in in Ottawa.
    • Carney’s comments came after weeks of suggestions by Trump that Canada would be absorbed into the United States, and as the U.S. president imposes stiff tariffs on the neighboring country.

    Trump rebuked by Canada PM Mark Carney on joining U.S.

  • Mar 13: Tariff uncertainty, rate cut bets keep gold near record levels

    Gold prices gained on Thursday, holding near all-time high levels, as elevated tariff uncertainty and bets on monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve kept bullion’s appeal strong.

    Spot gold firmed 0.7% to $2,953.39 an ounce, just shy from the record high of $2,956.15 scaled in February. U.S. gold futures were up 0.6% at $2,963.20.

    “Gold is in a secular bull market. We forecast prices to trade between $3,000-$3,200 this year,” said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

    U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest trade policies have helped gold gain 12% so far this year, an asset preferred by investors amid geopolitical and economic turmoil. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a recession would be “worth it” to get Trump’s economic policies in place.

    Data from the U.S. Labor Department showed producer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in February, while consumer price index rose 0.2% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January.

    Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but sharp government spending cuts and an escalating trade war threaten labor market stability.

    “The Federal Reserve is going to be at a point where they might be forced to lower interest rates. A drop in interest rates is viewed as a positive for gold because the opportunity costs drops when yields drops,” Ebkarian added.

    The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range next Wednesday, having reduced it by 100 basis points since September. Traders expect the U.S. central bank to resume cutting borrowing costs in June after it paused its easing cycle in January.

    Spot silver rose 0.1% at $33.26.

    “A strong breakout above $33.30 could open the doors toward $34 for silver,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

    Platinum lost 0.2% to $981.90, while palladium dropped 0.6% to $943.24.

  • Canada’s major stock index drops more companies than it adds in quarterly changes

    S&P Dow Jones Indices announced late Friday that it is adding two stocks and deleting four from the S&P/TSX Composite Index, the broadest measure of the Canadian market.

    No changes are being made to the S&P/TSX 60, a selection of most of the largest companies in the composite.

    S&P Dow Jones uses “float” – the value of shares that aren’t held by insiders and that therefore trade frequently and are easily available to the public – to judge whether a company should be included in its indexes. The index provider does not release its proprietary float calculations.

    S&P said it will add Endeavour Silver Corp. EDR-T +3.60%increase and gold miner G Mining Ventures Corp. GMIN-T +3.68%increase.

    S&P said it will delete forestry company Interfor Corp.IFP-T -0.79%decrease; energy-equipment seller Mattr Corp. MATR-T -2.10%decrease; restaurant owner MTY Food Group Inc MTY-T -2.93%decrease and real estate company Storagevault Canada Inc. SVI-DB-T +0.25%increase.

    The changes will be effective at the open of markets on March 24.

    The stocks S&P Dow Jones removed aren’t the worst performers of the year – they just have fallen enough since thelast quarterly rebalancing in December, to make them too small to stay in.

    Mattr shares have fallen 19.7 per cent since the end of November, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Interfor has fallen 16.0 per cent, MTY is down 6.2 per cent, and StorageVault is down 1.0 per cent.

    To get into the composite, a company’s float-adjusted market capitalization must be 0.04 per cent, or four-hundredths of a percentage point, of the total value of the index. To stay in the composite, a company’s float must not drop below 0.025 per cent, or 2.5 hundredths of a percentage point, of the total value of the index.

    With the growth of index funds and other passive investing strategies, whether a stock is part of a major index can have a meaningful effect on share prices. Fund managers who track an index need to hold shares in the underlying companies. Canadian stocks added to the composite – which has about 220 to 250 members, depending on the quarter – can see price bumps before and after inclusion. Similarly, companies removed from the index lose a source of demand for their shares.

    Research by Morningstar Direct for The Globe and Mail found Canadian mutual funds and exchange-traded funds with assets under management amounting to $265-billion had returns that were 95 per cent or more correlated with the S&P/TSX Composite over the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2024. This included funds that explicitly say they track the index.

    This week, S&P Dow Jones said it will consider a significant change that would allow some companies to appear in multiple countries’ indexes, paving the way for companies such as Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. BAM-T -2.50%decrease, Shopify Inc. SHOP-T -3.85%decrease, and the former Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Inc. to be both Canadian and American.

    S&P Dow Jones says it could allow companies “with significant ties to Canada” to stay in a Canadian index even if it normally would consider the company “domiciled” in another country. The company would need to be incorporated in Canada to be eligible.

    Until now, S&P Dow Jones has said a company can have just one country of domicile – and that country’s stock indexes are where it needs to be.