Author: Consultant

Oil prices declined for a third day on Wednesday, as investors worried about OPEC+ plans to proceed with output increases in April, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico escalated trade tensions.

Brent futures fell $1.09, or 1.5 per cent, to $69.95 a barrel by 1337 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.36, or 2 per cent, to $66.90 a barrel.

The contracts settled near multi-month lows the previous day, weighed down by expectations the U.S. tariffs and counter-tariffs by the affected countries will slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.

“The imposition of tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico by the U.S. sparked swift reprisals from each nation that increased concerns over a slowdown in economic growth and the consequent impact on energy demand,” Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said.

Canada and China retaliated immediately to Trump’s tariffs on Tuesday, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the country would respond, without giving details.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022, further pressuring crude prices.

The group will make a small increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, the first step in planned monthly increases to unwind its nearly 6 million bpd of cuts, equal to almost 6 per cent of global demand.

“There is a bit of a concern in the market that the OPEC+ decision is the start of a series of more monthly supply additions, but the statement from OPEC+ reiterates an approach in bringing back barrels only if the market can absorb them,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley Research said it was possible OPEC+ would deliver only a few monthly increases, rather than fully unwind the cuts.

The Trump administration also said on Tuesday it was ending a licence the U.S. granted to U.S. oil producer Chevron since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil.

The decision puts 200,000 bpd of supply at risk, ING commodities strategists wrote in a note on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels in the week ended February 28, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Investors await government data on U.S. stockpiles, due on Wednesday.

President Donald Trump went forward with sweeping tariffs at midnight on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, while doubling down on punitive duties on China.

The latest:

• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a 25% levy on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports, effective immediately. Tariffs on another C$125 billion in U.S. goods will take effect in 21 days, he added.
• Mexico’s president said retaliatory tariffs are coming Sunday.
• At midnight, 25% tariffs on two U.S. neighbors — Canada and Mexico — went into effect. The president also imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, doubling the 10% duty he had slapped on Beijing in early February.
• Economists have warned that the president’s aggressive moves could cause negative consequences globally, including triggering inflation that could hurt consumers.
• The stock market suffered a dramatic sell-off after Trump’s announcement Monday. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, its worst day since December, falling into negative territory for the year. Stocks were under pressure yet again Tuesday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite flirting with correction territory.

Pembina Pipeline Corp. PPL-T -1.20%decreasesays it earned $572 million in its fourth quarter.

That’s down from $698 million a year earlier.

The Calgary-based company says revenues for the quarter ended Dec. 31 were $2.15 billion, up from $1.84 billion during the same quarter in 2023.

Earnings per diluted common share were 92 cents, down from $1.21 a year earlier.

Pembina’s earnings and revenues for the full financial year rose from 2023.

Pipeline volumes rose during the quarter and the full financial year.

Shopify SHOP-T +1.23%increase has named a new U.S. executive office in securities filings for the first time, suggesting it could be positioning its shares to be included in major U.S. stock indexes, according to TD Securities.

While Shopify has not stated any intention to reclassify south of the border, it has made several changes to its reporting format, matching what is required of companies entering U.S. indexes, according to Peter Haynes, managing director and head of index and market structure research at TD Securities.

This includes adding a Manhattan-based executive office to its latest annual filing, adding a U.S. Employer Identification Number, adjusting how it reports its assets, and filing its annual report as a 10-K – a form typically used by domestic U.S. issuers – instead of as usual as a 40-F, used by foreign issuers.

This U.S. shift comes during a period of heightened political and market attention on Canadian companies as the country faces a looming trade war with the United States.

As a result of Shopify’s reporting changes, Mr. Haynes said he expects the company will be eligible for inclusion in U.S. indexes, including the Russell 1000 Index, at its next annual reviews. This could generate demand for the stock on the order of 52.2 million shares, worth $6-billion, he told investors.

In an e-mail, Shopify said the changes were made to more closely match the financial reports of its U.S. peers. The company did not say whether it had plans to be included in a U.S index.

“Shopify operates on the internet, everywhere – we’re a global company. We chose to voluntarily file certain SEC forms, such as a 10-K, in order to align our disclosures more closely with other software peers we believe our investors are familiar with,” said Shopify spokesperson Alex Lyons.

The company said there are no changes to operations.

Shopify already has executive leaders and staff operating out of New York, and across the U.S.

“While SHOP has not made any statement to our knowledge on the reasons for enhanced disclosure, the proof is in the pudding – or in this case the filings,” Mr. Haynes said, referring to the stock symbol.

He added that such corporate decisions are not about the “the heart strings” but rather the interest of shareholders. If an issuer can gain demand for its stock by switching headquarters to the U.S., he said, “such a move appears to be a no brainer.”

Almost half of Canadian businesses plan to shift more investments and operations to the U.S. to mitigate potential tariffs and maintain market access, according to a February report by accounting firm KPMG.

Some Canadian companies are expanding production south of the border to avoid tariffs or take advantage of tax benefits. Others are considering plans to redomicile to the U.S., though some of those plans have been walked back because of added concerns from investors around the effect on Canadian jobs and the economy.

Last fall, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. BAM-T +0.70%increase confirmed plans to move its head office to New York as part of its effort to attract a broader array of shareholders.

Last week, Canadian trucking company TFI International Inc. TFII-T +1.86%increase announced its own plans to move its headquarters south, but reversed that plan Monday after pressure from investors.

Meanwhile, Barrick Gold’s ABX-T -0.04%decrease chief executive officer Mark Bristow recently mused about the possibility of moving from Canada to the U.S. – the second time in five years he has made such a suggestion, according to Mr. Haynes.

“This is likely only the beginning of the migration south. After all, there is limited downside to issuers to become headquartered in the U.S. But make no mistake, the move hurts Canada’s capital markets as it will shift a significant percentage of volume to the U.S.,” Mr. Haynes said.

In January, Shopify’s founder and chief executive Tobi Lütke criticized the federal government’s decision to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States, saying the move is “simply the wrong choice” and that better options were available.

“Hitting back will not lead to anything good. America will shrug it off. Canada will decline,” Mr. Lütke posted to X.

Monday March 3

China and Japan manufacturing PMI

Euro zone CPI and manufacturing PMI

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for January.

Also: U.S. and Canadian auto sales for February.

Earnings include: Curaleaf Holdings Inc.; Hut 8 Corp.; Okta Inc.

Tuesday March 4

Japan jobless rate, capital spending and consumer confidence

Euro zone jobless rate

(9 p.m. ET) U.S. president Donald Trump addresses joint session of Congress.

Also: B.C. budget

Earnings include: AutoZone Inc.; Baytex Energy Corp.; CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.; First National Financial Corp.; Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.; Sea Ltd.; Secure Energy Services Inc.; Winpak Ltd.

Wednesday March 5

Japan, China and Euro zone services and composite PMI

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s labour productivity for Q4.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for February.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services/Composite PMI for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for January. The Street is projecting a month-over-month rise of 1.4 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for February.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Beige Book is released.

Earnings include: Aecon Group Inc.; Campbell Soup Co.; Descartes Systems Group Inc.; Linamar Corp.; Marvell Technology Inc.; Minto Apartment REIT; Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT; NuVista Energy Ltd.; Paramount Resources Ltd.; Parex Resources Inc.; Parkland Fuel Corp.; South Bow Corp.; Vermilion Energy Inc.

Thursday March 6

China foreign reserves and trade surplus

Euro zone retail sales

ECB monetary policy meeting

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of March 1. Estimate is 255,000, up 13,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity and unit labour costs for Q4. The Street is projecting annualized rate increases of 1.2 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for January.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for January.

Earnings include: Broadcom Inc.; Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.; Canfor Corp.; CES Energy Solutions Corp.; Costco Wholesale Corp.; Denison Mines Corp.; Endeavour Mining Corp.; Ero Copper Corp. Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.; Merck ADR

Friday March 7

Euro zone GDP

Germany factory orders

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for February. The Street is expecting an increase of 0.1 per cent, or 15,000 jobs, from January with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 per cent to 6.7 per cent and average hourly wages rising 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February. Consensus is a rise of 158,000 jobs from January with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.0 per cent and average hourly wages increasing 0.3 per cent (or 4.1 per cent year-over-year.

(12:30 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks to the University of Chicago’s 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum.

(3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for January.

Earnings include: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.; AltaGas Ltd.; Constellation Software Inc.; Westshore Terminals Investment Corp.

George Weston Ltd. WN-T +2.24%increase reported a profit in its fourth quarter compared with a loss a year ago.

The company, which is the controlling unitholder of Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust CHP-UN-T +0.22%increase and the controlling shareholder of Loblaw Companies Ltd. L-T -0.12%decrease, says it earned a profit attributable to common shareholders of $664 million or $5.05 per diluted share for the three months ended Dec. 31.

The company says the result compared with a loss of $38 million or 30 cents per diluted share in the last three months of 2023.

On an adjusted basis, George Weston says it earned $3.15 per diluted share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $2.51 per diluted share a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $15.1 billion, up from $14.7 billion a year earlier.

Chairman and chief executive Galen Weston says the results were driven by the consistent and positive performance of its operating businesses.

“Loblaw’s focus on retail excellence provided unmatched quality and value to Canadians, and Choice Properties’ necessity-based portfolio generated stable and growing cash flows,” Weston said in statement.

“Our businesses are well-positioned to deliver on their strategy and financial objectives in 2025.”

National Bank of Canada NA-T -4.74%decrease reported higher first-quarter profit that beat analysts’ expectations as capital markets and wealth management activity surged amid market volatility, offsetting a jump in provisions for loan defaults.

Major Canadian bank earnings have received a boost this quarter from strong performance in trading activity as equity markets whipsawed in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election in November. National Bank’s net income rose 8 per cent to $997-million, or $2.78 per share, in the three months that ended Jan. 31.

Adjusted to exclude certain items, including which costs related to the acquisition of Canadian Western Bank, the bank said it earned $2.93 per share. That edged out the $2.66 per share analysts estimated, according to Refinitiv.

“In a context of heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty and an evolving credit cycle, we remain committed to maintaining our usual discipline regarding credit, capital and costs,” National Bank chief executive officer Laurent Ferreira said in a statement.

National Bank set aside higher provisions for credit losses – the funds banks reserve to cover loans that may default.

The bank reserved $254-million in provisions, higher than analysts anticipated and more than double the amount the bank allocated in the same quarter last year. This included $196-million against loans that the bank believes may not be repaid – a 33-per-cent increase from the previous year quarter.

The boost was driven by deteriorating loans in commercial and retail banking.

Analysts had anticipated that banks would start increasing provisions to mitigate the impacts of a potential trade war with the United States. When Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova reported results Tuesday, both banks pointed to the threat of tariffs and escalating tensions with the United States, which is also causing clients to delay borrowing and investing plans.

National Bank is the third major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal first quarter. Scotiabank and BMO posted profit that beat analyst estimates. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce will close out the week for major bank earnings on Thursday.

In early February – after the first quarter closed – Canada’s sixth-largest lender closed its deal to take over the Canadian Western Bank, allowing National Bank to significantly expand its footprint in Alberta and British Columbia.

Prior to the deal, 80 per cent of National Bank’s personal and commercial business was in Quebec, with 20 per cent outside of the province. By acquiring CWB, 40 per cent of its business comes from outside Quebec.

The bank kept its quarterly dividend unchanged at $1.14 per share.

Total revenue jumped 17 per cent in the quarter to $3.18-billion. Expenses rose 14 per cent to $1.65-billion, driven by a 22-per-cent jump in variable compensation, higher salaries and benefits and technology investments.

Profit from Canadian personal and commercial banking was $290-million, down 14 per cent as provisions surged.

The wealth management division generated $242-million of profit, up 23 per cent as fee-based revenue increased amid market volatility.

Profit from the capital markets division rose 35 per cent to $417-million on higher revenue in global markets.

West Fraser Timber (WFG) reported Q4 2024 results with sales of $1.405 billion and a loss of $62 million, or $(0.80) per diluted share. The company’s Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $140 million, representing 10% of sales. For the full year 2024, sales reached $6.174 billion with a loss of $5 million.

Key segment performance in Q4 included Lumber Adjusted EBITDA of $21 million, North America Engineered Wood Products at $127 million, and Europe EWP at $2 million, while Pulp & Paper recorded $(10) million. The company repurchased 311,523 shares for $27 million in Q4 and paid $26 million in dividends.

The company noted continued resilience in NA Engineered Wood Products business, supported by solid new home construction demand. However, high mortgage rates remain an affordability challenge, and potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports add uncertainty. For 2025, capital expenditures are expected to be $400-450 million.

West Fraser’s Q4 2024 results reflect the company’s resilience amid challenging market conditions, with the North America Engineered Wood Products segment delivering robust $127 million in Adjusted EBITDA, offsetting weakness in other segments. The 10% EBITDA margin on $1.405 billion in sales demonstrates maintained operational efficiency despite market headwinds.

The balance sheet remains exceptionally strong, with $641 million in cash even after retiring $300 million in senior notes. This financial flexibility positions the company well for both defensive and opportunistic moves in 2025. The continued share repurchases and steady dividend payments signal management’s confidence in sustainable cash flow generation.

Looking ahead to 2025, the operational guidance suggests cautious optimism. The targeted SPF shipments of 2.7-3.0 billion board feet and SYP shipments of 2.5-2.8 billion board feet indicate expectations of stable demand, though potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports remain a key risk factor. The $400-450 million projected capital expenditure demonstrates commitment to strategic mill modernization while maintaining financial discipline.

The $70 million non-cash impairment of Europe EWP goodwill reflects ongoing challenges in European markets, but the segment’s gradual recovery potential remains intact as interest rates begin to decline and OSB continues to gain market share from plywood. The company’s portfolio optimization strategy, shifting production from higher-cost to lower-cost mills, shows promise in improving overall cost position and operational efficiency.

Monday February 24

Japanese markets closed

Euro zone CPI

Germany business climate

(8:15 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle speaks at the Bank of England Annual Research Conference in London.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index.

(10:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity.

Earnings include: Domino’s Pizza Inc.; GFL Environmental Holdings Inc.; InterRent REIT; Spin Master Corp.; Topaz Energy Corp.; Zoom Video Communications Inc.

—

Tuesday February 25

Japan machine tool orders

Germany GDP

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales for January.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 city) for December. Estimate is a rise of 0.3 per cent from Novemer and up 4.4 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for December. Estimate is an increase of 0.2 per cent from November and a rise of 4.3 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for February.

Earnings include: Bank of Montreal; Bank of Nova Scotia; EQB Inc.; Home Depot Inc.; Intuit Inc.; Leon’s Furniture Ltd.; Maple Leaf Foods Inc.; Stantec Inc.; Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.

—

Wednesday February 26

Germany consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s wholesale trade for January.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for January. The Street is projecting an annualized rate decline of 2.9 per cent.

Also: Canada’s capital expenditures survey.

Earnings include: Capital Power Corp.; Exchange Income Corp.; George Weston Ltd.; Kinaxis Inc.; Lowe’s Companies Inc.; National Bank of Canada; Northland Power Corp.; Nvidia Corp.; Ovintiv Inc.; Salesforce Inc.; TJX Companies Inc.; WSP Global Inc.

—

Thursday February 27

Euro zone economic and consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s current account balance for Q4.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey: job vacancy rate for December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Feb. 22. Estimate is 225,000, up 6,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and GDP deflator for Q4. Consensus projections are annualized rate increases of 2.3 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable and core orders for January. Consensus estimates are month-over-month rises of 2.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for January. Estimate is a decline of 2.0 per cent from December.

Also: Alberta’s budget and Ontario election.

Earnings include: Atco Ltd.; Athabasca Oil Corp.; Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce; Canadian Utilities Ltd.; Chartwell Retirement Residences; Parkand Fuel Corp.; Pembina Pipeline Corp.; Royal Bank of Canada; Stella-Jones Inc.; Toronto-Dominion Bank

—

Friday February 28

China manufacturing and composite PMI

Japan CPI, retail sales and industrial production

ECB’s three-year CPI expectations

Germany retail sales and employment

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s real GDP and chain prices for Q4. Consensus estimates are annualized rate increases of 1.8 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly GDP for December. The Street expects a rise of 0.3 per cent from November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for January. Consensus projections are month-over-month rises of 0.3 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for January. The Street is forecasting a rise of 0.3 per cent from December and 2.6 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for January.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago PMI for February.

Earnings include: Boralex Inc.; Docebo Inc.