Author: Consultant

  • CIBC’s third-quarter profit rises on lower loan loss provisions

    Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T -0.84%decrease reported a rise in third-quarter profit on Thursday, as the lender set aside smaller funds to cover potential loan losses.

    Provision for credit losses was $483-million in the quarter, down $253-million compared with a year earlier.

    Credit trends have been improving over the past few quarters in CIBC’s U.S. office portfolio.

    The bank set aside lower provisions in its commercial banking segment in the U.S., a market where it was previously hit by its exposure to office real estate.

    CIBC’s U.S. commercial banking and wealth management business reported a net income of $215-million in the quarter, up 187 per cent compared to last year.

    The bank’s adjusted net income rose to $1.90-billion or $1.93 per share, in the three months ended July 31, from $1.48-billion or $1.52 per share a year earlier.

    https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/cibc-announces-third-quarter-2024-results-881083714.html

  • National Bank reports $1.03B Q3 profit, up from $830M a year ago

     National Bank of Canada reported a third-quarter profit of $1.03 billion, up from $830 million a year ago, helped by strength across its operations.

    The Montreal-based bank says its net income amounted to $2.89 per diluted share for the quarter ended July 31, up from $2.33 per diluted share a year earlier.

    Revenue for the quarter totalled $3.00 billion, up from $2.49 billion in the same quarter last year.

    The bank’s provision for credit losses, the amount it sets aside to cover bad loans, totalled $149 million for the quarter, up from $111 million a year earlier.

    On an adjusted basis, National Bank says it earned $2.68 per diluted share in its most recent quarter, up from an adjusted profit of $2.18 in the same quarter last year.

    The average analyst estimate had been for an adjusted profit of $2.49 per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 28, 2024.

  • RBC tops quarterly profit estimates on smaller bad loan provisions

    Royal Bank of Canada RY-T +0.34%increase on Wednesday beat analysts’ quarterly profit estimates as it set aside a smaller than expected sum to protect against bad loan losses and wrapped in HSBC’s domestic operations.

    The results were also powered by a 17 per cent rise in earnings at its personal and commercial banking segment to $2.49-billion, of which $198-million came from its $13.5-billion acquisition of HSBC’s domestic operations.

    Canada’s biggest bank by market capitalization, RBC has moved to rejig its upper ranks and change its reporting segments while absorbing HSBC’s 780,000 clients and $71-billion loan book in the country.

    “Royal reported a standout quarter … (its) earnings are gaining the lift of a full quarter’s inclusion from HSBC,” Jefferies analyst John Aiken wrote, noting the lender had rebuilt its capital level and was no longer a laggard.

    At the end of July 31, RBC’s Common Equity Tier 1 ratio, a measure of a bank’s resilience that compares its capital against its assets, stood at 13 per cent, well above the Canadian banking regulator’s requirement.

    A resurgence in deal making activity as expectations of a soft landing gave corporate executives the confidence to pursue acquisitions and sell stocks and bonds to raise capital drove a 23 per cent jump in net income at RBC’s capital market business to $1.17-billion.

    Smaller peer National Bank of Canada NA-T -0.61%decrease also reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, helped by a smaller loan-loss provision for the quarter and a 55 per cent rise in net income at its capital markets unit.

    The Montreal-based lender is also focusing on growth at home, expanding from Canada’s east coast to west coast through its $2.5-billion acquisition of Canadian Western Bank. The deal is awaiting regulatory approval.

    The results are in contrast with others from Canada’s big five banks that have reported so far, which were dragged down by credit pressures or provisions for penalties related to U.S. investigations.

    RBC’s net interest income (NII) – the difference between what a bank earns on loans and pays out on deposits – rose 16.5 per cent.

    Provisions for credit losses came in at $659-million, compared with analysts’ estimate of $903-million, according to LSEG data.

    The bank’s adjusted net income rose 16.2 per cent to $4.73-billion. On a per share basis, the bank earned $3.26 compared with the average analyst estimate of $2.95.

    National Bank’s earnings of $2.68 per share were more than the expected $2.49 per share.

  • Scotiabank reports drop in third-quarter profit, boosts loan-loss provisions

    Bank of Nova Scotia reported lower fiscal third-quarter profit as it set aside more money to cover future losses on loans, with customers in Canada and Latin America feeling the strain from higher interest rates.

    Scotiabank reported profit of $1.91-billion, or $1.43 per share, in the three months that ended July 31. That was down from $2.19-billion, or $1.72 per share, in the same quarter last year.

    After adjusting for certain items, Scotiabank said it earned $2.19-billion, or $1.63 per share. On average, analysts expected adjusted profit of $1.62 per share, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.

    The bank earmarked $1.05-billion of provisions for credit losses – the funds banks set aside to cover loans that could default in future – compared with $819-million in the third quarter last year.

    The bank’s provisions for impaired loans, which are already past due, jumped 31 per cent higher to $970-million, as more borrowers fell behind on payments. Many of those customers were in three of Scotiabank’s key markets in Latin America: Colombia, Chile and Peru. Provisions also increased for Canadian banking clients, mostly on car loans as well as credit card balances.

    The ratio of provisions to the bank’s total loan book was 55 basis points, or 0.55 per cent, which is at the high end of the bank’s guidance for the year. But the low level of provisions against performing loans that are still being repaid, at $82-million, suggests the bank expects potential losses from defaults are nearing their peak.

    Scotiabank kept its quarterly dividend unchanged at $1.06 per share.

    Earlier this month, after its fiscal third quarter had ended, Scotiabank announced a US$2.8-billion investment to buy a minority stake in U.S. regional bank KeyCorp., as part of a plan to boost the Canadian bank’s exposure to the American banking market. The deal surprised investors and analysts were skeptical about its merits.

    On Tuesday, Scotiabank explained why it sees the investment as a better alternative to buying back its own shares. The KeyCorp stake is expected to add between $300-million to $350-million to earnings in the first year after closing. By contrast, if the bank repurchased shares, it estimates it would have lost $80-million of profit, which is roughly what it would have earned by keeping the equivalent capital invested in securities. And Scotiabank calculates that the stake in KeyCorp will add more to earnings per share and return on equity.

    In Scotiabank’s Canadian banking division, profit was $1.11-billion, up 6 per cent from the same quarter last year. Loan balances were roughly unchanged, with the mortgage portfolio shrinking by 2 per cent. Deposits increased by 8 per cent, which is a strategic priority for the bank.

    Profit from international banking operations, which are concentrated in Latin America, was up 8 per cent to $669-million. The profit margin on loans increased, though overall loan balances declined by 2 per cent, mostly due to falling business lending.

    Wealth management had a strong quarter, with profit up 11 per cent to $408-million. Capital markets profit of $418-million fell 4 per cent year over year, with weakness in fixed-income trading activity as demand from clients was lower.

    The bank’s capital reserve increased, with its common equity Tier 1 capital ratio – a measure of the bank’s resilience against shocks – rising to 13.3 per cent, from 13.2 per cent, up 0.6 per cent from a year earlier.

  • Bank of Montreal warns of loss provision pressures after quarterly profit miss

    Bank of Montreal BMO-T -5.71%decrease on Tuesday warned it would need to continue to set aside money for loans that are unlikely to be repaid, after the Canadian lender reported lower-than-expected profit for the sixth time in a row.

    The lender however said it would start to see a recovery in 2025 as central banks cut interest rates and unemployment stabilizes which would ease some pressure for consumers and businesses falling behind on their loan repayments.

    Third-quarter loan loss provisions were higher than analysts had forecast, in part due to impaired provisions for two customers, one in the U.S. and one recorded under its Capital Markets business.

    “We’ve investigated the circumstances that led to recent impairments, and the conclusion is, for some customers, the combination of prolonged high interest rates, economic uncertainty and changing consumer preferences had an acute impact,” BMO’s CEO Darryl White told analysts.

    Fifteen accounts drove about half of the year to date impaired provisions in its wholesale portfolio, White said.

    Chief Risk Officer Piyush Agrawal said the increase in loss provisions in the retail sector was “systemic” and in wholesale, he said it was not “thematic to a sector.”

    “I’m confident we’ve looked through our files,” he said about the bank’s loans to larger clients or companies.

    Meanwhile, peer Bank of Nova Scotia BNS-T +2.13%increase, Canada’s fourth largest bank by market capitalization, reported better than expected profit powered by strong growth at its businesses at home and overseas, which spans across North America, Latin America and the Caribbean.

    BMO’s shares sank 6 per cent in early trading in Toronto, while those of Scotiabank rose about 2.5 per cent.

    Canadian banks have sought growth south of the border expanding through acquisitions or brick by brick as opportunities in a saturated an highly regulated market at home were limited.

    BMO purchased U.S. regional lender Bank of the West for $16.3-billion last year, while Scotiabank looked further down, expanding in largely underbanked areas in South America and Latin America, focusing on the Pacific Alliance trade bloc.

    Scotiabank is now betting on the $1.6-trillion North American trade, concentrating on Mexico, and U.S. Most recently, Scotiabank invested $2.8-billion in U.S. regional bank KeyCorp, its first exposure to the region.

    But BMO and other Canadian banks that have a U.S. presence have faced many challenges in a competitive U.S. banking market, forcing them to spend more to retain deposits and boost loan growth.

    BMO, Canada’s third-largest lender, said provision for credit losses jumped to C$906-million ($672.8-million) in the third quarter, from C$492-million a year earlier. Analysts were expecting C$734-million, according to LSEG data.

    “The weakness was widespread with all segments showing some deterioration,” TD Securities analyst Mario Mendonca wrote in a note.

    Adjusted net income at its U.S. personal and commercial banking segment fell 7 per cent. Overall, adjusted net income fell to C$1.98-billion, a 7.8 per cent decline from a year earlier.

    BMO earned C$2.64 per share, compared with analysts’ expectations of C$2.76.

    Scotiabank booked a 0.7 per cent fall in adjusted income to C$2.19-billion and earned C$1.63 per share, 1 Canadian cent more than estimates.

    “The stability in earnings shown in its International operations should generate some support,” Jefferies analyst John Aiken said.

  • Canada imposes a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles, matching the U.S.

    Canada’s government on Monday announced it is imposing a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles that matches U.S. tariffs and follows similar plans announced by the European Commission.

    The announcement followed encouragement by U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and cabinet ministers on Sunday. Sullivan is set to make his first visit to Beijing on Tuesday.

    Trudeau said Canada also will impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum.

    “Actors like China have chosen to give themselves an unfair advantage in the global marketplace,” he said.

    There was no immediate response from China.

    Chinese officials are likely to raise concerns about American tariffs with Sullivan as Beijing continues to repair its economy after the Covid-19 pandemic. U.S. President Joe Biden in May slapped major new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum and medical equipment.

    “The U.S. does believe that a united front, a coordinated approach on these issues benefits all of us,” Sullivan told reporters on Sunday.

    Biden has said Chinese government subsidies for EVs and other consumer goods ensure that Chinese companies don’t have to turn a profit, giving them an unfair advantage in global trade.

    Chinese firms can sell EVs for as little as $12,000. China’s solar cell plants and steel and aluminum mills have enough capacity to meet much of the world’s demand. Chinese officials argue their production keeps prices low and would aid a transition to the green economy.

    “We’re doing it in alignment, in parallel, with other economies around the world that recognize that this is a challenge that we are all facing,” Trudeau said of the new tariffs. “Unless we all want to get to a race to the bottom, we have to stand up.”

    The only Chinese-made EVs currently imported into Canada are from Tesla, made at the company’s Shanghai factory.

    Canada “had to go with the U.S. position, when you think about the economic integration that we have with the U.S. More than 75% of our exports go to the U.S.,” said a former Canadian ambassador to China, Guy Saint-Jacques. “This reflects the fear that the next president of the United States might be Donald Trump, and so they know we have to be pretty much aligned in all of this.”

    Saint-Jacques said Canada can expect retaliation from China in other industries, adding that barley and pork are candidates because the Chinese can get it from other countries.

    “China will want to send a message,” he said.

  • Calendar: Aug 26 – Aug 30

    Monday August 26

    U.K. markets closed

    Germany business sentiment

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable and core orders for July. The Street is projecting month-over-month increases of 4.2 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively.

    (10:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for August.

    Earnings include: BHP Group Ltd.; Heico Corp.

    ==

    Tuesday August 27

    China industrial profits

    Germany GDP

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for July.

    (9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 city) for June. Consensus is a gain of 0.3 per cent from May and 6.2 per cent year-over-year.

    (9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for June. Estimate is a month-over-month increase of 0.1 per cent and 5.2-per-cent gain from the same period a year ago.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index for August.

    Earnings include: Bank of Montreal; Bank of Nova Scotia

    ==

    Wednesday August 28

    Euro zone private sector credit

    Germany and France consumer confidence

    Earnings include: CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.; EQB Inc.; HP Inc.; National Bank of Canada; Nvidia Corp.; Royal Bank of Canada

    ==

    Thursday August 29

    Euro zone consumer and economic confidence

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian current account balance for Q2.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s Payroll Survey: Job Vacancy Rate for June.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Aug. 24. Estimate is 235,000, up 3,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and GDDL price index for Q2. The Street expects annualized rate increases of 2.8 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for July.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for July.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for July. Consensus is a gain of 0.4 per cent from June.

    Earnings include: Autodesk Inc.; BRP Inc.; Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce; Dell Technologies Inc.; Dollar General Corp.; Lululemon Athletica Inc.; Marvell Technology Inc.

    ==

    Friday August 30

    Japan jobless rate, retail sales and industrial production

    Euro zone CPI and jobless rate

    Germany unemployment and retail sales.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s real GDP for Q2. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 1.9 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian monthly real GDP for June. The Street expects a month-over-month increase of 0.1 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for June. The Street is forecasting month-over-month gains of 0.5 per cent and 0.2 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for July. Consensus is a rise of 0.2 per cent from June and up 2.7 per cent year-over-year.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago PMI for August.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for August.

    Earnings include: Canadian Western Bank

  • Union issues new strike threats as railways await word on arbitration

    Canada’s unionized railway workers on Friday urged the federal labour tribunal to back their right to strike, adding more risk that Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. and Canadian National Railway Co. could face further shutdowns of service across the country.

    Officials with the companies and union argued their cases at a hearing before the Canada Industrial Relations Board as a range of industries warned of severe financial impacts from stalled supply chains amid a potentially protracted work stoppage. There was no indication on Friday when the board would issue its decision.

    The country’s rail network shut down at midnight on Wednesday when CN locked out employees after months of separate contract talks failed to yield agreements. CPKC train crews and dispatchers went on strike at the same time. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference represents almost 10,000 workers at the two companies.

    Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon on Thursday directed the CIRB to order the railways to resume service, the workers to get back their duties and bargaining committees to enter binding arbitration.

    CN declared its lockout over, but the union on Friday issued a strike notice at the Montreal-based rail carrier for Monday at 10 a.m. ET.

    Despite the government’s move, CPKC workers remained off the job, and the union said it was consulting with its legal team about how to press its case that members should retain their constitutional right to strike.

    “We’re here and we’re going to stay here,” François Laporte, national president for Teamsters Canada, told reporters at a picket line outside CPKC’s headquarters in Calgary. “We have a strike and we have a constitutional right to be here. That’s what we’re exercising.”

    The union is considering challenging the Minister’s decision in Federal Court should the CIRB order an end to the labour dispute as per his direction, Mr. Laporte said.

    The Teamsters, which has opposed company demands to let an arbitrator settle the contracts, called the Minister’s directive to the CIRB “shameful” and an attempt to appease the companies.

    CPKC said it is ready to resume operations once its receives the board’s order to do so. “CPKC is disappointed by this delay, which will affect our ability to resume serving the Canadian economy,” the railway said in a statement.

    The companies and union remain far apart in negotiations over many issues, including working conditions. The Teamsters said CPKC’s contract offers risked safety and did not address issues that included fatigue management and quality of life. The union said the railways were trying to overcome a labour shortage by making employees work longer days and farther from home.

    Those accusations were flatly denied by the companies, which say their offers ensured safety, offered higher wages and included scheduling changes that would let employees spend more time with their families.

    The Minister’s directions to the labour board do not make the outcome certain, said Bruce Curran, an associate law professor at the University of Manitoba.

    Since 2007, the courts have significantly strengthened labour and collective-bargaining rights, which Prof. Curran said helps to bolster the union’s counterarguments at the hearing.

    He said the CIRB will have to consider carefully the now constitutionally entrenched right to strike when deciding whether to accept the government’s requests. And even if the board sides with the government, that might not resolve the dispute as the Teamsters could challenge the CIRB decision in court, Prof. Curran said.

    “There are plenty of, unfortunately, twists and turns left to come on this, and it’s not exactly possible to tell exactly how everything’s going to play out,” he said.

    Jean-Daniel Tardif, director of dispute resolution services at the CIRB, said the Minister’s referrals are being handled “with utmost urgency,” but he declined to say how long it might take to respond. “Case management conferences were held last evening, and a hearing is proceeding” on Friday, Mr. Tardif said in an e-mail.

    Business groups welcomed the Labour Minister’s attempt to end the stoppages, and urged the parties to abide by his directives to return to work.

    Grain farmers will continue to lose $50-million a day with the continuance of a total shutdown of our national railways,” the Grain Growers of Canada said.

    The shutdown has halted movements of grain, imported goods at the ports and chemicals. Some commuter railways near Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal that run on CPKC tracks remained suspended on Friday.

    Even before the lockouts, the railways began winding down operations to ensure trains and goods would be parked safely. This meant most shipments within and destined for Canada were not being picked up. U.S. railways that interchange freight with CN and CPKC also saw a drop in cargo volumes.

    Anthony Hatch, a rail analyst at AHB Consulting in New York, said the change across most of the U.S. was not noticeable. “But if you were in Minnesota, it’s going be an issue. And if you’re a farmer, potentially it’s an issue, and it could be a positive one,” because U.S. wheat prices rose slightly in response.

    Still, he said, the global supply chain is accustomed to disruptions, whether it’s port strikes, the two biggest wheat growers at war (Russia and Ukraine) or Houthis attacking freighters in the Red Sea. “There’s always something,” he said, “and this is our version of something.”

    In Calgary, Sean O’Brien, general president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, said the Washington-based union is offering whatever backing the Canadian members need as the dispute proceeds. He declined to give specifics about potential cross-border actions to disrupt the companies’ operations.

    “It may have an impact on supply chain, it may have an impact on recessions in both respective countries. So they have got a lot of decisions they need to make,” he said.

  • Canada moves to end rail shutdown quickly; CN workers to return to work Friday

    Workers at Canadian National Railway will begin returning to work on Friday, the Teamsters union said, hours after the Canadian government moved to end an unprecedented rail stoppage.

    The union said the work stoppage at Canadian Pacific Kansas City would continue pending an order from the Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB). The union and company officials are scheduled to meet with the board on Friday morning.

    Canada’s top two railroads, Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City had locked out more than 9,000 unionized workers earlier on Thursday, triggering a simultaneous rail stoppage that business groups said could inflict hundreds of millions of dollars in economic damage.

    The Canadian government on Thursday announced that it would ask the country’s industrial relations board to issue a back-to-work order that should come soon.

    The CIRB, which is independent, will now consult the companies and unions before issuing an order.

    CN had said it would end its lockout on Thursday at 6 p.m. ET (2200 GMT). CPKC said it was preparing to restart operations in Canada and further details on timing would be provided once it received the CIRB’s order.

    “I assume that the trains will be running within days,” Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon told reporters.

    As well as requesting a back-to-work order, MacKinnon asked the board to start a process of binding arbitration between the Teamsters union and the companies, and extend the terms of the current labor agreements until new agreements have been signed.

    The sides blamed each other for the stoppage after multiple rounds of talks failed to yield a deal.

    In a new statement during the early hours on Friday, the Teamsters union posted on X that it had taken down picket lines at CN.

    CN spokesperson Jonathan Abecassis told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp it could take the company a week or more to catch up on shipments.

    MacKinnon’s decision marked a change of mind by the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which had said it wanted to see the matter settled at the bargaining table.

    “We gave negotiations every possible opportunity to succeed … but we have an impasse here,” MacKinnon said.

    “And that is why we have come to this decision today.”