Q3 2025 average production was 634,746 boepd, at the high end of the anticipated guidance range of 625,000 – 635,000 boepd despite storage injections and production shut-ins during the quarter in response to extremely low AECO and Station 2 natural gas prices.
Q3 2025 liquids production of 147,165 bpd was up 4% over Q2 2025. Tourmaline expects total liquids production growth of 35% to 200,000 bpd by 2031.
Tourmaline is pleased to announce that it has entered into a long-term natural gas storage agreement with AltaGas at its Dimsdale Storage Facility in Alberta for 6 bcf of storage capacity starting April 2026 for a 10-year term. The Company views the addition of another large storage position as a strategic opportunity to enhance financial performance and strengthen operational flexibility in volatile natural gas price environments.
The Company has entered into two short-term and one long-term LNG gas supply contracts which complement the existing portfolio with additional exposure to the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (” TTF “) market starting in 2026.
Tourmaline is exploring the potential sale of its Peace River High complex. The completion of this sale would lower corporate operating costs and provide proceeds that could be reinvested into higher return NEBC growth assets.
The Company has elected to declare and pay a special dividend of $0.25/share on November 25, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 14, 2025.
December Nymex natural gas (NGZ25) on Friday closed down -0.042 (-0.96%).
Dec nat-gas prices settled lower on Friday as forecasts of mild US weather could curb heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster G2 said Friday that warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the western two-thirds of the US for November 12-16 and are expected to remain above-normal for November 17-21. Nat-gas prices extended their losses Friday on the outlook for higher US nat-gas production after a weekly report from Baker Hughes showed active US nat-gas rigs increased to a 2.25-year high.
Higher US nat-gas production is a bearish factor for prices. On October 7, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day from September’s estimate of 106.60 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 110.0 bcf/day (+8.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 77.0 bcf/day (-2.7% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 17.3 bcf/day (-0.8% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended November 1 rose +0.05% y/y to 73,730 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending November 1 rose +2.89% y/y to 4,282,216 GWh.
Thursday’s weekly EIA report was neutral for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended October 31 rose +33 bcf, right on the market consensus, but below the 5-year weekly average of +42 bcf. As of October 31, nat-gas inventories were up +0.4% y/y and were +4.3% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of November 5, gas storage in Europe was 83% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 92% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending November 7 rose by +3 to a 2.25-year high of 128 rigs. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
Shopify Inc. reported a third-quarter profit of US$264 million as its revenue rose 32 per cent compared with a year ago. The company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says the profit amounted to 20 cents US per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of US$828 million or 64 cents US a year ago. On an adjusted basis, Shopify says it earned 34 cents US per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 36 cents US per share a year ago. Revenue for the quarter totalled US$2.84 billion, up from US$2.16 billion in the same quarter last year. The increase came as merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$2.15 billion, up from US$1.55 billion a year ago, while subscription solutions revenue totalled US$699 million, up from US$610 million in the same quarter last year. In its outlook, Shopify says it expects its fourth-quarter revenue to grow at a percentage rate in the mid-to-high twenties on a year-over-year basis.
OPINION
Here’s a summary of the recent earnings report for SHOP.TO (the TSX-listed shares of Shopify Inc.) — pulling in key metrics, context and my interpretation.
✅ What went well
Shopify reported strong volume growth: its Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) rose ~32 % year-over-year to about US $92 billion. Investors.com+1
Revenue also rose ~32 % (approx) in the quarter, beating consensus estimates. Investing.com+1
Its “Merchant Solutions” segment (which includes payments, etc.) showed a particularly strong uptick. Investors.com+1
The company continues investing into AI and international expansion, outlining opportunities in those areas as growth levers. Futu News+1
⚠️ Areas of caution / Mixed outcomes
Although revenue and GMV beat expectations, some margin metrics came under pressure (for example higher hosting/expansion costs) which weighs on profitability. Investing.com+1
Despite the beat, the stock apparently declined after the release, suggesting that investors may have expected stronger guidance or had concerns about future growth. Investing.com+1
The company flagged that in certain regions or segments comparability is tougher (e.g., due to previous trial-promotions or policy changes) which could cloud near-term growth metrics. Investing.com+1
🔍 Outlook & Guidance
Shopify guided that for Q4 it expects revenue growth in the mid to high 20 % range year-over-year. Investing.com+1
They expect gross profit dollars to grow in the “low to mid-20s %” and free-cash-flow margin to be slightly above Q3 levels. Investing.com
The business emphasises that growth is coming from both increased merchant adoption and deeper penetration of services (payments, ad campaigns, enterprise offerings). The shift to AI/agent-commerce is a highlighted strategic focus. Futu News+1
🎯 My takeaways
Shopify delivered very solid growth in top-line and GMV, which is encouraging given the competitive e-commerce environment.
However, the margin/expense side and the expectations for future growth may be acting as a dampener on investor sentiment (hence the stock drop despite the beat).
For someone tracking SHOP.TO, the story remains strong growth + platform shift, but the “how fast vs how expensive” question is front and centre. If the company can keep scaling payments/ad/enterprise revenue and hold or improve margins, upside remains; if cost/investment pressure mounts or growth slows, risk rises.
The guidance (mid-to-high 20 % growth) is good but suggests the company sees some moderation (vs the ~32 % growth achieved) — investors will likely watch whether the “mid” or “high” end of that range is hit, and how costs develop.
The company emphasised improved commercial execution, higher volumes in Canada, and operational efficiencies helping margins. Investing.com Canada
⚠️ Areas of concern & mixed outcomes
Revenue (or total revenues) fell short of expectations: Reported around C$4.72 billion vs forecast ~C$4.78 billion. Investing.com Canada+1
In the international segment, revenues declined (~5 % in one region) even though EBITDA rose strongly. Investing.com Canada
Some markets remain under pressure (milk supply constraints, cost pressures, raw material volatility) that may weigh on future margin improvements. Investing.com Canada
🔍 Outlook & strategic comments
Management expects somewhat more stable conditions in the back half of the year, especially for the U.S. dairy commodity market, noting fewer extremes in pricing and a more predictable input-cost environment. Investing.com Canada
They continue to invest in operational improvements (e.g., new warehousing facility in Wisconsin) and are focusing on higher-margin/differentiated dairy products and ingredients. Investing.com Canada
Share-buyback activity is ongoing; leverage is reported to be in a comfortable range (net debt/EBITDA improving) which gives the company flexibility. Investing.com Canada
🎯 OPINION
Saputo delivered a solid performance on profitability, especially given some headwinds in commodity pricing and international markets. The EPS beat is meaningful. The revenue miss and continued pressure in certain markets temper the optimism somewhat, but the margin improvement and operational execution give a constructive backdrop.
The positives are: improving margins, strong cash flow potential, and manageable leverage.
The cautions: slower growth or margin risk if commodity/milk input costs spike, or if international markets lag.
Worries over the government shutdown surged in the early part of November, pushing consumer sentiment In to its lowest in more than three years and just off its worst level ever, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.
The current conditions index slid to 52.3, a drop of nearly 11% from last month, while the future expectations measure fell to 49.0, down 2.6%. On a year-ago basis, the two measures respectively slumped 18.2% and 36.3%.
Enbridge ENB-T +0.20%increase said on Friday it plans early next year to formally gauge commercial interest in a second phase of capacity expansion on its Mainline crude pipeline network.
The Calgary, Canada-based pipeline operator said if the project goes ahead, it could add 250,000 barrels per day of additional capacity on the Mainline by 2028, helping to meet rising demand for export access from Canadian oil shippers.
The project would be in addition to a planned first phase of expansion, on which the company expects to make a final investment decision before the end of the year. The first phase would add 150,000 bpd of capacity and be placed into service by 2027, Enbridge said.
Enbridge missed third-quarter profit estimates on Friday, pressured by higher financing costs from capital investments including U.S. gas utility acquisitions.
But the company said its Mainline pipeline, which has the capacity to move 3 million barrels per day of crude from Western Canada to markets in Eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest, shipped a record 3.1 million bpd on average during the quarter, reflecting strong customer demand for Canadian oil.
Canada’s oil sands industry has shown resilience during the global oil industry downturn, buoyed by years of investment that have made it among the lowest-cost basins in North America.
Canadian oil production hit a record high of 5.1 million bpd on average last year, and Enbridge is forecasting the country will see 500,000 to 600,000 bpd of supply growth by the end of the decade.
The Canadian government is in talks with the oil-producing province of Alberta, which wants to see a new crude pipeline built in tandem with a massive carbon capture and storage project aimed at lowering emissions from the oil sands.
No private sector proponent has indicated willingness to build such a pipeline, but the federal government on Tuesday said it could scrap a cap on oil and gas emissions in favor of other measures like strengthened industrial carbon pricing.
Optimizing the Mainline pipeline is the “quickest and most cost-effective way” to address Canada’s rising oil production, said Enbridge executive vice-president Colin Gruending, on a conference call.
If the Canadian government does scrap some of the regulatory and policy hurdles that have inhibited investment in the sector in recent years, he said, even more pipeline space could be required.
“There could be much more upside to monetize the trillions of dollars of value up in northern Alberta,” Gruending said.
Enbridge reported adjusted core profit of $2.31-billion from its liquid pipelines unit, down from $2.34-billion a year earlier, due to lower contributions from the Flanagan South and Spearhead pipelines.
The company reported adjusted profit of 46 cents per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, missing analysts’ average expectation of 51 cents per share, according to LSEG data.
The Canadian economy enjoyed a burst of hiring activity for the second consecutive month in October, offsetting summer job losses and bolstering calls that the Bank of Canada is done cutting interest rates for now.
The labour market added 67,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 6.9 per cent from 7.1 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday in a report. Financial analysts were expecting a small loss of 5,000 positions.
Over September and October, the country added a cumulative 127,000 jobs, fully recovering the 106,000 positions that were shed over July and August.
While the Canadian economy has been sideswiped by U.S. tariffs this year, it has also shown some resilience, and early data suggest the country will narrowly avoid a recession. The labour market, which had been weak as the Trump administration started implementing its tariffs, is looking more lively of late.
“It’s too early to tell, but this could end up being the first sign of recovery for an economy that’s been reeling,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Securities, said in a client note. “This reinforces our revised call that the Bank of Canada moves back to the sidelines next month, leaving rates unchanged after easing in September and October.”
The odds are slim that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates at its next decision on Dec. 10. Interest rate swaps, which capture market expectations of monetary policy, are pricing in a 5-per-cent chance of a reduction next month, down from 13-per-cent odds on Thursday, according to Bloomberg data.
Last week, the central bank trimmed its benchmark interest rate to 2.25 per cent, a second consecutive cut after several pauses to assess the fallout of protectionist U.S. trade policies. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stressed that monetary policy can only accomplish so much when the economy is going through structural changes because of trade frictions, and that rates may be “at about the right level” to keep inflation in check.
Despite a challenging business climate, Friday’s labour report showed some rebounds in distressed areas.
Ontario, for example, added 55,000 jobs in October. The province’s economy has been slammed by U.S. tariffs targeting the automotive and steel industries, a sluggish real estate sector and layoffs in postsecondary education.
Doug Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, said in a research note that “there were lots of signs that the Blue Jays run made a mark” in provincial hiring, with sizeable gains seen in hospitality, recreation and retail.
The national youth unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 14.1 per cent from 14.7 per cent in September, the first decline since February. The jobless rate for the 15-to-24 age cohort had previously reached its highest level in 15 years, excluding the early pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.
There were, however, some weak spots in Friday’s report. The entirety of October’s job gains were in part-time work, and most industries shed positions during the month. Statscan noted that from January to October, employment in goods-producing industries has fallen by 54,000, largely because of losses in construction and manufacturing.
The outlook is hardly certain, as well. The North American trade agreement is up for renegotiation next year, and Ottawa has been unable to secure relief for certain industries getting battered by hefty U.S. tariffs. A recent Bank of Canada survey of businesses found that most are not planning to increase the size of their work forces over the next year.
“The Canadian labour market appears to be recovering, although truer tests of the strength of that recovery are still to come given the recent volatility seen in this data release,” Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a client note. “We expect that employment gains will slow down again but, with population growth also decelerating, the unemployment rate should continue a gradual move lower during 2026.”
Mr. Grantham added: “That would be in-line with the Bank of Canada’s current thinking that interest rates are low enough to support a recovery within the economy, and because of that we continue to forecast no more cuts from here.”
Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. raised its dividend as it reported its third-quarter profit fell compared with a year ago on restructuring and other transformation and advisory costs. The retailer says it will pay a quarterly dividend of $1.80 per share, up from $1.775 per share. The increased payment to shareholders came as Canadian Tire reported its net income attributable to shareholders from continuing operations amounted to $169.1 million or $3.13 per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 27. The result compared with a profit of $198.5 million or $3.55 per diluted share in the same quarter last year. On an normalized basis, the company says it earned $3.78 per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from an normalized profit of $3.55 per diluted share a year ago. Revenue for the quarter totalled $4.11 billion, up from $3.99 billion a year ago, as consolidated comparable sales rose 1.8 per cent. Comparable sales at Canadian Tire stores were up 1.2 per cent, while SportCheck comparable sales gained 4.2 per cent. Mark’s comparable sales rose 2.5 per cent. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2025. Companies in this story: (TSX:CTC.A)
Sun Life Financial Inc. SLF-T -3.03%decrease reported $1.1 billion in net income during the third quarter, down from $1.35-billion during the same period a year earlier.
Earnings for the period ended Sept. 30 worked out to $1.97 per share, down from $2.33 per share a year ago.
The Toronto-based insurer says assets under management reached $1.6-trillion, rising by seven per cent from the same period last year.
The company also raised its common share dividend to 92 cents per share, up from 88 cents per share.
Sun Life CEO Kevin Strain says the company’s latest results reflect strong underlying net income in both Canada and Asia.
