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Inflation won’t be enough to spur BoC to resume cutting | Financial Post

China’s exports grew more than expected in June on de-escalating trade tension with the US and imports rebounded for the first time this year, signalling a positive contribution from net trade to economic growth in the second quarter, official data revealed Monday.

Exports increased 5.8 percent year-on-year in June, the General Administration of Customs reported. This was stronger than the 4.8 percent increase in May and economists’ forecast of 5.0 percent.

Imports rebounded 1.1 percent from a year ago, following prior month’s 3.4 percent decline. Imports were expected to grow 1.3 percent.

Consequently, the trade surplus rose to $114.7 billion from $103.2 billion in May. The surplus was forecast to remain broadly unchanged at $103.2 billion.

Due to de-escalation of tariff tensions in May, exports to the US declined at a slower pace in June. Exports to the US fell 16.1 percent but much slower than the 34.5 percent drop seen in May.

In response to the new tariff threats of the US administration, Chinese exporters diversified their shipments to other Asian economies and the EU. Recently, there was a surge in ASEAN imports from China suggesting that supply chains are deeply intertwined.

In the first half of the year, China’s exports advanced 5.9 percent, while imports declined 3.9 percent. As a result, the trade surplus surged to $585.9 billion.

Last week, US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on imports from most Asian economies with effect from August 1. Further, Trump said goods transshipped to evade higher tariff will be subject to that higher tariffs.

The US imposed a 20 percent duty on goods from Vietnam and a sharper 40 percent tariff on goods transshipped from China through Vietnam.

In May, Washington and Beijing reached an agreement to suspend a majority of tariffs for 90 days and also to roll back certain restrictive measures. The deadline for China to reach a trade deal ends on August 12.

China is scheduled to release its second quarter GDP data on July 15. Beijing aims to achieve around 5 percent economic growth this year.

ING economist Lynn Song said China benefited from a wave of trade frontloading in the first half of the year. Even a low single-digit annual growth for exports will translate to a smaller drag on 2025 growth than what the market feared at the start of the year, the economist noted.

China’s gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday – beating forecasts for an increase of 0.9 percent after adding 1.2 percent in the three months prior.

On an annualized basis, GDP was up 5.2 percent – again topping expectations for 5.0 percent after rising 5.4 percent in the previous quarter.

The bureau also said that industrial production jumped 6.8 percent in June, topping forecasts for 5.6 percent and up from 5.8 percent in May.

Retail sales rose 4.8 percent on year in June, shy of forecasts for 5.2 percent and down from 6.4 percent in the previous month.

Fixed asset investment was up an annual 2.8 percent in June, missing expectations for 3.6 percent and down from 3.7 percent a month earlier.

The jobless rate was 5.0 percent – unchanged and as expected.

House prices were down 3.2 percent on year in June after slumping 3.5 percent in May.

Canada’s main stock index rose on Monday to a record high, with shares of technology companies leading broad-based gains as investors focused on upcoming corporate earnings rather than the latest U.S. tariff threats.

The S&P/TSX composite index ended up 175.60 points, or 0.7 per cent, at 27,198.85, eclipsing Thursday’s record closing high.

The European Union accused the U.S. of resisting efforts to strike a trade deal and warned of countermeasures if no agreement is reached to avoid the punishing tariffs President Donald Trump has threatened to impose starting August 1.

Investors have accepted that there will be some level of U.S. tariffs but expect the duties will not be as severe as proposed, said Sadiq Adatia, chief investment officer, BMO Asset Management.

“The market is just going to back to pure fundamentals of what’s going on globally and particularly what’s going on in the U.S., where the economy is still moving in the right direction,” Adatia said. “Employment seems to be okay, we’re getting into earnings season with a lot of optimism potentially popping through and there’s still probability-wise rate cuts that are expected to happen soon.”

Wall Street’s banking heavyweights are set to report on Tuesday, kicking off second-quarter earnings season.

Canadian consumer price index data for June is also due on Tuesday, which could guide expectations for the Bank of Canada interest rate decision at the end of the month.

Shares of Thomson Reuters Corp jumped 7.7 per cent to hit a record high, with analysts pointing to potential inclusion of the company in the Nasdaq 100 index.

The industrials sector was up 0.9 per cent and technology added 1.9 per cent, helped by a gain of 4.3 per cent for e-commerce company Shopify Inc.

Consumer staples rose 0.7 per cent and real estate ended 0.8 per cent higher.

Of 10 major sectors only energy ended lower. It lost 0.2 per cent as the price of oil fell 2.3 per cent to $66.91 a barrel.

Meanwhile, Wall Street stocks closed marginally up on Monday as investors sidestepped any meaningful moves following U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, and held steady ahead of a busy week of economic data and the start of earnings season.

Trump ramped up trade tensions over the weekend, vowing to slap a 30 per cent tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico starting August 1 – leaving the clock ticking for last-minute trade deals.

The EU extended its pause on retaliatory measures until early August, holding out hope for a negotiated truce. The White House said talks with the EU, Canada and Mexico are still underway.

Despite the headlines, investor reaction was muted, having grown numb to Trump’s barrage of tariff threats and his frequent last-minute U-turns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 88.14 points, or 0.20 per cent, to 44,459.65, the S&P 500 gained 8.81 points, or 0.14 per cent, at 6,268.56 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 54.80 points, or 0.27 per cent, to 20,640.33.

Trading volume was also subdued, with 15.43 billion shares changing hands, compared with the 17.62 billion average for the last 20 trading days.

Markets have been buoyant in recent weeks even as Trump has rattled his tariff saber.

The Nasdaq Composite ended at a record high, its seventh such achievement since June 27. The S&P 500, which finished a dozen points below last Thursday’s best ever close, has had five records in the same timeframe.

“If anything is holding the market back, it’s the fact we’ve had a pretty good run since April,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy & research at Glenmede.

He noted that despite initial fears that Trump’s tariff policy would hurt the U.S. economy, the levies unveiled so far and the passage of his signature economic legislation last week will broadly offset each other, meaning investors are starting to be more confident about the economy’s growth prospects.

Signs of how Trump’s policies are playing out will come this week, with a raft of new reports on the state of the U.S. economy due up.

Tuesday is also the scheduled release of the latest consumer price data, which is expected to reveal an inflation uptick in June as sellers started passing on the cost of sweeping tariffs.

Wednesday’s producer and import price reports will offer fresh insight into how supply chain pressures are shaping up.

One place where Trump’s tariff rhetoric still moved markets was crude prices, with U.S. benchmark oil dropping 2.2 per cent after he threatened levies on buyers of Russian exports, which may have knock-on effects on global energy supplies.

A majority of the sectors closed in positive territory though, led by the 0.7 per cent advance by communication services . It was helped by gains in Netflix, which reports earnings on Thursday, and Warner Bros. Discovery , whose latest Superman caper had a strong opening weekend at the box office.

Crypto stocks ticked up after Bitcoin topped $120,000 for the first time. Coinbase rose 1.8 per cent, and MicroStrategy gained 3.8 per cent.

Waters Corp dropped 13.8 per cent after the lab equipment maker agreed to merge with rival Becton, Dickinson and Company’s Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions unit in a $17.5 billion deal.

– Reuters

Canada’s trade deficit with the world narrowed in May from a record high the previous month, as tariffs continued to weigh on exports to the United States.

Statistics Canada reported on Thursday that the country’s trade deficit, which reflects the difference between its exports and imports, fell to $5.9-billion from $7.6-billion.

Exports to the United States slipped for a fourth consecutive month, decreasing by 0.9 per cent, as the White House targets some sectors of the Canadian economy with punishing tariffs.

This includes levies on steel, aluminum and automobiles, as well as on all goods that don’t comply with the continental free-trade agreement’s rules of origin. Last month, Mr. Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50 per cent.

U.S. tariffs are already slowing down the Canadian economy and forecasters expect it shrank in the second quarter.

The federal agency noted that the share of exports destined for the U.S. was 68.3 per cent in May, one of the lowest proportions on record. (The monthly average in 2024 was 75.9 per cent.)

The impact of the trade spat is particularly apparent in the automotive sector, where tariffs are slowing down trade in both directions.

Imports of motor vehicles and parts fell by 5.3 per cent, following an even sharper decline in April.

Imports of passenger vehicles and light trucks decreased to their lowest level in two years, falling by 9.7 per cent in May, as Canada implemented reciprocal auto tariffs on the U.S.

Meanwhile, exports to countries other than the U.S. continued to rise last month, increasing by 5.7 per cent and reaching a record high.

A sharp rise in gold exports drove up total exports to the world by 1.1 per cent, while imports fell by 1.6 per cent, marking the third consecutive decrease.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to negotiate an economic and security agreement with the United States by July 21, in hopes of securing a break from tariffs for Canadian businesses.

U.S. President Donald Trump broke off talks last week over Canada’s implementation of a digital services tax targeting tech giants like Google and Netflix. However, talks have since resumed after Mr. Carney announced that the federal government would rescind the tax.

• Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000 and just above the upwardly revised 144,000 in May.
• Market pricing shifted strongly following the payrolls report, with traders all but taking the chance of a July rate cut off the table.
• Government employment posted a large gain, leading all categories with an increase of 73,000 due to solid boosts in state and local hiring.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/jobs-report-june-2025.html

U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly cut off all trade negotiations with Canada on Friday, citing Ottawa’s Digital Services Tax (DST) for the decision. The tax, enacted last June, targets U.S. technology companies that operate in Canada but pay little tax here. Under the new tax regime, the first payments are set to be collected on Monday, June 30. The Financial Post breaks down what you need to know about the DST and why it is infuriating Trump and Americans.

https://financialpost.com/technology/canada-digital-services-tax-infuriating-donald-trump

Will Canada maintain it?

For months, executives of U.S. tech giants have pressured American policymakers over Canada’s DST. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Canadian business groups have also pressed the Carney government to abandon the DST. And while businesses and industry groups were holding out for a last-minute suspension of the DST, finance minister François-Philippe Champagne reconfirmed last Thursday that Canada is “going ahead” with the tax. “The (DST) is in force and it’s going to be applied,” he said. Parliament Hill’s firm stance on maintaining the DST comes despite a recent Group of Seven (G7) agreement that succeeded in axing the Section 899 “revenge tax” provision from Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” that would have taken aim at businesses from countries that the U.S. views as unjustly targeting American firms. Ottawa hasn’t ruled out shutting down DST discussions completely. “Obviously, all of that is something that we’re considering as part of broader discussions that you may have,” Champagne said last week, suggesting that the DST could be renegotiated given the ongoing trade talks between Canada and the U.S.

OTTAWA – Canada will proceed with a digital services tax (DST) on technology companies, which President Donald Trump called “a direct and blatant attack on our country” in a Truth Social post on Friday in which he said that his administration was “terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada effective immediately.”

On Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office issued a one-line response to the president’s announcement.

“The Canadian government will continue to engage in these complex negotiations with the United States in the best interests of Canadian workers and businesses,” it said.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/fox-news-world/canada-responds-after-trump-halts-trade-talks-over-digital-services-tax

Monday June 30

China PMI

Japan industrial production

ECB forum on central banking in Sintra, Portugal (through Wednesday)

–

Tuesday July 1

Canadian markets closed

Japan manufacturing PMI

Euro zone CPI and manufacturing PMI

Germany unemployment

(9:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in a policy panel at ECB forum in Portugal.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for June.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for May.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey for May.

–

Wednesday July 2

Euro zone jobless rate

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for June.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June.

Also: U.S. and Canadian auto sales for June.

–

Thursday July 3

Japan and Euro zone services and composite PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for May.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June. The Street is expecting a gain of 113,000, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of June 28. Estimate is 242,000, up 6,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for May.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services/Composite PMI for June.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for May. Estimate is a gain of 8 per cent from April.

Earnings include: Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

–

Friday July 4

U.S. markets closed (Independence Day)

Japan household spending

Germany factory orders

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for June.