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  • Jun 3 @ 11 AM E.S.T – Dow falls 400 points as oil prices and bond yields creep higher: Live updates

    Stocks fell on Wednesday as oil prices and Treasury yields moved higher amid worries the U.S.-Iran conflict could keep lifting inflation.

    The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back 403 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 traded down 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.5%

    Oil prices rose following the U.S. and Iran launching new strikes. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1% to around $95 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 1% to around $97 per barrel.

    Late Tuesday, the Kuwait army said in a social media post that air defense systems were “intercepting hostile targets.” U.S. Central Command later said that American forces defeated Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, and they also carried out “self-defense strikes” on Qeshm Island “in response to attempted attacks by Iran across the Middle East.”

    President Donald Trump also said Iran agreed to not having nuclear weapons, but added “they can change their mind.”

    As oil prices gained, U.S. Treasury yields advanced as well, with the 10-year yield last seen approaching 4.5% and the 30-year yield nearing 5%. Yields took a leg higher after the strong ADP report for May.

    Declines in artificial intelligence-related stocks also weighed on the broader market. Nvidia lost more than 2%, while Dell Technologies and Oracle lost 5.5%. Microsoft also shed 2%.

    The major averages notched new record closes on Tuesday. The S&P 500 topped 7,600 for the first time, while the Dow added more than 200 points.

    “The momentum has been incredibly strong. It’s for a lot of good reasons, and a lot of optimism, as well as really strong demand around the AI investment cycles. But still we are moving into a period, sort of moving past earning season, which has been a tremendously positive catalyst for the markets,” Meghan Shue, head of investment strategy at Wilmington Trust, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday afternoon. “Now we are left with kind of the summer lull. Trading activity might slow a little bit, and we still have a lot of geopolitical risk on the horizon.”

    “I’m not necessarily calling for a sharp reversion in the market, but I think it makes a lot of sense to see it pause here, or even pull back slightly and introduce a little bit more volatility as we move into the summer months,” Shue added.

  • US: Private payrolls grew by 122,000 in May, stronger than expected, ADP reports

    • ADP reported said companies added 122,000 workers in May, up from 105,000 in April and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 110,000.
    • Unlike prior months, where job growth was concentrated in healthcare and a few other sectors, gains were more broad-based.
    • Education and health services again led with 57,000 hires, but trade, transportation and utilities added 36,000, professional and business services contributed 11,000, and construction and leisure and hospitality both rose by 8,000.

    Private hiring expanded at a brisk pace in May, providing further indication of a stable labor market, ADP reported Wednesday.

    The payrolls processing firm said companies added 122,000 workers for the month, up from 105,000 in April and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 110,000. May marked the strongest month since January 2025. April’s total was revised down by 4,000.

    Unlike prior months, where job growth was concentrated in healthcare and a few other sectors, gains were more broad-based. Eight of the 10 sectors ADP tracks saw gains, and hiring was spread evenly both by company size and geography.

    Education and health services again led with 57,000 hires, but trade, transportation and utilities added 36,000, professional and business services contributed 11,000, and construction and leisure and hospitality both rose by 8,000.

    Information services lost 9,000, a possible impact from artificial intelligence growth, while natural resources and mining also reported a loss, down 3,000.

    “Hiring was more broad-based in May than we’ve seen in the last few years,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “The labor market continues to show sustained momentum going into the summer hiring season.”

    Companies with fewer than 50 employees led with 67,000 new hires while those with 500 or more added 40,000 and medium-sized firms contributed 17,000.

    On salary, annual pay rose 4.4% for those staying in their jobs, the same as April, while job-switchers saw pay growth edge down to 6.5%.

    Stock market futures were mixed following the release while Treasury yields were higher.

    The report comes two days ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of nonfarm payrolls for May. The Wall Street consensus is for growth of 80,000 after April’s 115,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.

    Federal Reserve officials will be watching the jobs numbers closely ahead of their June 16-17 policy meeting. Markets are pricing in a virtual certainty that the central bank will hold its benchmark interest rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%.

  • U.S. plans new levies on dozens of countries, including Canada, as Trump looks to rebuild tariff wall

    The United States is proposing a new 10-per-cent tariff on Canada and other trading partners in an attempt to rebuild the tariff wall that was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this year.  

    However, the proposed tariff appears to maintain an exemption for Canadian products that comply with the rules of the continental trade agreement – a carve-out that would significantly reduce the bite of the tariffs. 

    Late Tuesday evening, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office published a statement laying out tariffs of between 10 per cent and 12.5 per cent on 60 countries. The office said the tariffs are being imposed because of countries’ failure to curb imports of products made with forced labour – an allegation Canada and other U.S. trade partners have disputed.

    USTR names Canada among six economies it says have “failed to effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labor.” The other five on the list are Ecuador, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan. These countries face a 10-per-cent tariff. 

    However, the Federal Register document spelling out the proposed tariffs notes that they would not apply to “USMCA-compliant goods of Canada or Mexico.” This echoes the exemption that Canadian and Mexican products had to earlier baseline tariffs the Trump administration imposed. 

    Another 54 countries, which the U.S. says have failed to impose and enforce a forced labour prohibition, face a higher 12.5-per-cent tariff.

    Opinion: Is Canada even serious about confronting forced labour?

    Prime Minister Mark Carney said the “vast, vast, vast majority of Canadian trade” would be unaffected by the new levy and the state of play would be “the same as before.” 

    He also promised changes to Canadian laws and regulations against the use of forced and child labour in the country’s supply chains to make the rules more effective. Such changes, he said, would be unveiled over the coming weeks. “We support the overall objective” of eliminating forced labour, he told reporters before a caucus meeting on Parliament Hill on Wednesday. “We’re working towards making it more effective.”

    The proposed tariffs do not come into force immediately. There will first be a public comment and review period, in which the tariff proposals may change. Written comments are due on July 6 and hearings will happen on July 7. 

    The proposed Section 301 levies are an attempt by the Trump administration to recreate the tariff regime that the U.S. Supreme Court partly dismantled in February. 

    Through much of last year, U.S. President Donald Trump relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to place tariffs on dozens of trading partners in an attempt to restructure the global trading order and squeeze concessions from other countries. 

    But this tool was taken away from the administration in February when the Supreme Court found that Mr. Trump was acting beyond the powers granted to him under the act by Congress.

    The administration responded by implementing a new round of temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allow the President to levy tariffs for up to 150 days. These tariffs, which have maintained the carve-out for USMCA-compliant goods, are set to expire on July 24

    USTR also launched two Sec. 301 investigations: One into forced labour and one into “structural excess capacity” in manufacturing. Canada is not subject to the latter investigation.

    The U.S. has used Sec. 301 tariffs against China for years, and they are seen by trade experts as a more legally durable basis for the administration’s tariff regime.

    Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, before the Sec. 301 tariff announcement, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, said that the possibility of new tariffs was “something that we have been preparing for.”

    “We have made submissions to the United States that we think are very significant in addressing the concerns that the United States has raised [about forced labour] for a number of months,” Mr. LeBlanc said in Washington, after meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer earlier in the day. 

    LeBlanc offers ‘specific proposals’ to end trade war, calls for USMCA to be renewed for 16 years

    In the meeting, he said, he discussed Canada’s commitment to dealing with forced labour with Mr. Greer.

    Mr. LeBlanc would not say how Canada would respond to 301 tariffs, including whether it would retaliate, but said he would continue trying to land a trade deal with the U.S.

    “We don’t get panicked by turbulence. We’re not going to take off our seatbelt, walk around the aisle, break down the cockpit door and start pushing buttons in front of the pilots,” he said.

    Ottawa is negotiating along two lines. It is trying to get the United States to lower sectoral tariffs on autos, industrial metals and wood products, while aiming to successfully renew the USMCA agreement. The trilateral trade deal is up for mandatory review on July 1, although all three countries have said they expect negotiations to continue beyond that date.

    On Wednesday, the Canadian government moved to defuse one trade irritant with the U.S. by backpedalling on requirements that foreign streaming services pay for Canadian content.

    Culture Minister Marc Miller ordered the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission to review an order issued last month for foreign streamers and Canadian broadcasters to spend money to either buy or produce Canadian-made programs.

    The Online Streaming Act of 2023, under which the CRTC issued its requirements, has been a source of complaint for the U.S. government. The law was meant to update Canadian content requirements for the age of digital media.

  • FIRST READING: Is the technical recession recession just a technicality, technically?

    On Monday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre rejected reports that Canada was in “technical recession,” saying that the country’s economic malaise was not a “technicality.”

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    “(Prime Minister Mark) Carney says we’re not in a real recession, as he sent out his Liberal commentators and economists to say it’s just a technicality,” said Poilievre at a press conference announcing that Canada was in the grip of a “full-blown Carney Recession.”

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    On Friday, Statistics Canada announced that GDP had gone down in the first quarter of 2026. This indeed marks Canada’s official entry into the generally accepted definition of “recession,” but only by one of the smallest possible margins in Canadian economic history.

    Recessions are generally “called” after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. In other words, a country’s economy has shrunk for at least six months.

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    In the final quarter of 2025, the Canadian economy shrunk by one per cent. And then, in the first quarter of 2026, it contracted again by the razor thin margin of 0.1 per cent.

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    In December 2025, Canadian GDP was pegged at $2,339,770,000,000 in 2017 dollars. At the end of March, it came in at $2,339,730,000,000 in 2017 dollars. A difference of about $400 million is what delivered the 0.1 per cent decline, and thus tipped Canada into recession.

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    Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to investors that the decline in the Canadian economy seen over the last six months is “barely a scratch in GDP terms.”

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    The 0.1 per cent decline in the first quarter of 2026 is such a tight margin that it’s entirely possible that if the end of March had come a few days later or earlier, the stats would not have shown a recession at all.

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    In February, the Canadian economy had actually been growing; GDP grew by an average of about $150 million per day. But in March, all these gains were reversed by an average daily GDP decline of about $113 million.

    A May 29 note by RBC economist Nathan Janzen, for instance, suggested that the 0.1 per cent decline may already be gone. Although Janzen warned that estimates are “highly revision prone,” the early GDP estimates for April were showing a 0.4 per cent increase, driven in part by high oil prices.

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    The Conservatives’ point, however, is that Canada’s entry into recession is only the latest indicator of ill health for an economy that was supposed to be running at full speed.

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    Poilievre noted that insolvencies are currently at highs not seen since 2009, Canadian household debt remains the highest in the G7, and unemployment is currently the second worst in the G7.

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    The latest Statistics Canada figures show unemployment at 6.9 per cent, slightly worse than the 6.8 per cent Canada was posting when Carney was first sworn in as prime minister in March 2025.

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    Canada is also the only developed country whose last two quarters have been defined by contraction, however slight.

    “Why is it that only Canada, after a year of Mark Carney, is in a recession today?” said Poilievre on Monday.

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    The term “technical recession” has been used among financial circles for at least the last 100 years. As early as 1917, a report in the Vancouver Sun noted that the auto sector was experiencing “technical recessions” as a result of U.S. entry into the First World War.

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    But it’s only been within the last few decades that “technical recession” has entered heavy usage within the Canadian political lexicon as politicians began litigating economic contractions based on fractions of a per cent.

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    The first recorded mention of “technical recession” in the House of Commons was in 1990 by Geoff Wilson, minister of finance under then prime minister Brian Mulroney. When the Liberal opposition accused Wilson of what he called the “r-word,” Wilson replied, “If there is that decline in output in the current quarter then we would have a technical recession.”

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    In the midst of the 2008 Great Recession, then prime minister Stephen Harper used the term “technical recession” to describe Canada’s relatively mild experience of the downturn.

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    Harper’s final months in office would come to be characterized by two consecutive quarters of decline driven in part by plummeting oil prices, leading to years of Liberal claims that they took power amidst a “technical recession.”

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    “When we took office in 2015, the Canadian economy was sluggish, and Canada was in a technical recession,” Liberal MP Joël Lightbound said in one typical 2019 statement to the House of Commons.

  • US: Job openings in April surged to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years

    • The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that available employment hit 7.6 million for April, a surge of 731,000 from the prior month and the highest level since May 2024.
    • While openings jumped, the hiring rate slipped. Companies hired a total 5.12 million workers during the month, a decline of 419,000 from March.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/02/job-openings-april-2026.html

  • Oil jumps more than 4% as Trump tells CNBC he doesn’t care if Iran negotiations are over

    • President Donald Trump told CNBC’s Eamon Javers in a phone interview that he doesn’t care if talks with Iran are over.
    • Iranian state media reported earlier that Tehran will halt talks with the U.S. in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
    • Trump subsequently posted on social media that talks with Iran are continuing.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/oil-prices-wti-brent-crude-israel-lebanon-hezbollah-iran-trump-us.html

  • Provinces that receive equlization payments

    The Canadian provinces currently receiving equalization payments (for 2025–26 and 2026–27 fiscal years) are:

    • Quebec (by far the largest recipient, ~$13.9 billion for 2026–27)
    • Manitoba (~$5.0 billion)
    • Nova Scotia (~$3.5 billion)
    • New Brunswick (~$3.3 billion)
    • Prince Edward Island (~$723 million)
    • Ontario (smaller amount, around $400 million)
    • Newfoundland and Labrador (smaller amount, around $180–200 million)

    Key Notes

    • These are the seven “have-not” provinces that qualify based on the federal formula, which measures fiscal capacity (ability to generate revenue from taxes like personal income, corporate, and sales taxes).
    • Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan do not receive equalization payments, as they are considered “have” provinces with stronger fiscal capacity (mainly due to natural resources).
    • Equalization is an unconditional federal transfer meant to help less wealthy provinces provide reasonably comparable public services at reasonably comparable tax rates. The total program is around $26–27 billion annually.

    Amounts can change slightly year to year based on economic data, but the list of recipient provinces has been stable in recent years (with Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador receiving smaller/occasional amounts)

  • June 1: Oil prices rise as U.S., Iran trade strikes, Israel moves further into Lebanon

    Oil prices rose more than 3 per cent on Monday ​after Iran and the U.S. traded strikes ‌and Israel ordered troops to move further into Lebanon in its battle with Tehran-backed Hezbollah.

    Brent futures were up US$2.68 or 3 per cent at US$93.80 a barrel at 7:21 a.m. ET. U.S. ​crude futures rose US$3.03 or 3.5 per cent to US$90.39 a barrel.

    Over May, Brent and WTI lost around 19 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively. It was both contracts’ biggest monthly fall in absolute terms since March 2020 when the ​coronavirus pandemic slashed energy demand.

    The fighting in ‌the Middle East, after Washington hosted Israel-Lebanon peace talks on Friday, dimmed hopes that the U.S. and Iran could soon announce an extension to their ceasefire.

    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he would soon decide on a proposed ‌deal to ​extend a ceasefire announced ‌in early April.

    Israel would be key to any such deal, and ​Iran has said repeatedly that Hezbollah and Lebanon ⁠must be included. The U.S. has proposed a “gradual de-escalation” plan, ⁠a U.S. official said on Sunday.

    Concerns are rising about mines in the Strait of ​Hormuz, a key oil and gas shipping lane, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. “Even if an agreement is reached, it won’t deliver a flood of supply,” Sycamore said.

    An Axios reporter said on X on Friday that Iran had dropped ⁠more mines in the strait earlier last week.

    Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday the delay in the diplomatic process to end the war can be explained by a lack of trust, Washington’s contradictory positions and Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.

    Concerns over supply outweighed weekend ⁠economic data from China which showed stalling factory ​activity. This added to concerns the world’s second-largest economy is losing momentum.

    Saudi ⁠Arabia is likely to cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude oil to Asia in July ‌for a second month, a Reuters survey showed.

    Goldman Sachs said on Sunday that ​weak oil demand in China and Europe poses a major downside risk to its fourth-quarter Brent crude forecast of US$90 a barrel and WTI forecast of US$83, although Middle East supply disruptions could still ​push prices higher.

  • TSX Outlook — Week Ending June 5, 2026

    1. Economic Events To Watch

    A. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday, June 5)

    Highest impact event of the week.

    Why it matters:

    • Determines expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
    • Influences bond yields.
    • Impacts risk appetite globally.
    • Often drives TSX direction for several days.

    TSX Impact

    If Jobs StrongIf Jobs Weak
    Banks ↑Utilities ↑
    Industrials ↑Gold ↑
    Technology ↑REITs ↑
    Gold ↓Bond-sensitive sectors ↑

    Stocks most sensitive:

    • Royal Bank of Canada
    • Toronto-Dominion Bank
    • Shopify
    • Kinaxis

    B. Canadian Labour Market

    The labour market remains a concern.

    Recent data showed:

    • rising unemployment,
    • slowing hiring,
    • weaker employment growth.

    TSX Impact

    Positive:

    • Supports lower interest rates.

    Negative:

    • Signals weaker consumer spending.
    • Negative for discretionary retailers.

    Watch:

    • Canadian Tire Corporation
    • Loblaw Companies
    • Alimentation Couche-Tard

    C. Bank of Canada Expectations

    Markets increasingly expect the Bank of Canada to remain cautious after weak GDP data. The next BoC meeting is June 10, so investors will be positioning ahead of it all week.

    Beneficiaries

    • Banks
    • Utilities
    • REITs
    • Telecoms

    2. Geopolitical Events To Watch

    A. USMCA Trade Negotiations

    The U.S. and Mexico have begun discussions on revisions to USMCA, with Canada expected to be drawn into negotiations over the coming weeks. Automotive content rules, steel, aluminum and supply chains are key issues.

    TSX Exposure

    Most exposed:

    • Canadian National Railway
    • Canadian Pacific Kansas City
    • Magna International

    Bullish:

    • Constructive negotiations.

    Bearish:

    • New tariff threats.

    B. Middle East / Oil

    Markets continue to monitor:

    • Iran developments,
    • Strait of Hormuz shipping,
    • ceasefire implementation.

    Recent progress on a ceasefire reduced oil prices, but risks remain elevated.

    TSX Impact

    If oil > US$95:

    • Energy sector likely leads.

    If oil < US$85:

    • Energy underperforms.
    • Consumer and transportation sectors benefit.

    Watch:

    • Canadian Natural Resources
    • Suncor Energy
    • Imperial Oil
    • Enbridge

    C. China Economic Data

    Manufacturing PMI releases from China are important for commodity demand expectations. Weak data would pressure industrial metals and resource names.

    TSX Impact

    Affected sectors:

    • Copper
    • Base metals
    • Materials

    Watch:

    • Teck Resources
    • First Quantum Minerals
    • Lundin Mining

    TSX Sector Scorecard For The Week

    SectorOutlook
    GoldBullish
    UtilitiesBullish
    TelecomBullish
    BanksNeutral to Bullish
    EnergyNeutral (oil dependent)
    Consumer StaplesNeutral
    Consumer DiscretionaryNeutral to Bearish
    IndustrialsTrade-headline dependent
    TechnologyU.S. jobs dependent
    MaterialsChina-data dependent

    Key Levels To Watch

    TSX Composite

    • Resistance: ~35,000
    • Major Resistance: ~35,500
    • Support: ~34,250
    • Major Support: ~33,750

    WTI Crude

    • Bullish above: US$90
    • Strongly bullish above: US$95

    Gold

    • Bullish above: US$4,400/oz
    • Strong breakout above: US$4,500/oz

    Most Important TSX Catalysts This Week (Ranked)

    1. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (June 5)
    2. Middle East / Oil developments
    3. USMCA / tariff headlines
    4. China PMI data
    5. Bank of Canada rate expectations ahead of June 10 meeting

    Base Case (60% Probability)

    • TSX trades sideways to modestly higher.
    • Gold remains firm.
    • Banks stabilize.
    • Energy consolidates.
    • Investors position cautiously ahead of the June 10 Bank of Canada decision.