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U.S. job openings barely budged in October, coming in at 7.7 million with ongoing uncertainty over the direction of the American economy.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that employers posted 7.67 million vacancies in October, close to September’s 7.66 million.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which was delayed by the extended government shutdown, also showed that the layoffs rose to almost 1.9 million, most since January, 2023. And the number of people quitting their jobs – a sign of confidence in the labour market – fell in October, suggesting that “businesses seeking to control labour costs will have to pivot to active layoffs, lifting unemployment, rather than rely on natural attrition,” Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon, wrote in a commentary.

Canada’s jobless rate falls to 6.5% driven by rise in part-time, youth employment

Job openings have come down steadily since peaking at a record 12.1 million in March, 2022, when the economy was roaring back from COVID-19 lockdowns. The job market has cooled partly because of the lingering effect of the high interest rates the Federal Reserve engineered in 2022 and 2023 to combat an outburst of inflation.

Overall, it’s a puzzling time for the American economy, buffeted by President Donald Trump’s decision to reverse decades of U.S. policy in favour of free trade and instead impose double-digit tariffs on imports from most of the world’s countries.

Policy-makers at the Federal Reserve are meeting this week to decide whether to cut their benchmark interest rate, and the gathering is expected to be unusually contentious. Inflation remains stuck above the Fed’s 2-per-cent target, partly because importers have tried to pass along the cost of Trump’s tariffs by raising prices. Normally, stubborn inflation would discourage Fed policy-makers from cutting rates. But the job market has looked shaky in recent months, and the Fed is expected to reduce its benchmark rate for the third time this year, though some policy-makers might dissent.

Meanwhile, the 43-day federal shutdown has made a mess of the government’s economic statistics.

Canada’s jobless rate falls to 6.5% driven by rise in part-time, youth employment

The October report on job openings came out a week late, and the September version was not published separately because federal data collectors were on furlough. Instead, September’s JOLTS numbers were folded into Tuesday’s report along with October’s. They showed a hefty increase in openings from 7.23 million in August.

The Labor Department will issue numbers for hiring and unemployment for November next Tuesday, 11 days later than originally scheduled. The department is not releasing an unemployment rate for October because it could not calculate the number during the shutdown. It will release some of the October jobs data – including the number of positions that employers created that month – along with the full November jobs report.

Forecasters surveyed by the data firm FactSet predict that employers added fewer than 38,000 jobs in November and that the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5 per cent from September’s 4.4 per cent. That would be low by historical standards, but the highest in nearly four years.

Canada’s fertilizer giants risk becoming the target of a U.S. price-fixing investigation as the Trump administration tries to tackle high input prices and low profits on American farms.

On Monday, Mr. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports, while accusing foreign companies of anti-competitive behaviour and price fixing. The President has launched a Department of Justice probe examining the matter.

One Canadian company – Saskatchewan-based Nutrien Ltd. – is the largest global producer of potash. Potash is one of three fertilizers critical to all major agricultural operations and the U.S. depends on Canada for more than 80 per cent of its demand.

Mr. Trump’s accusations are misplaced, especially when it comes to potash, analysts and fertilizer industry associations say, but they tap into a real problem unfolding on the American farm.

U.S. eyes high tariffs on Canadian fertilizer, subsidies for farmers

Ottawa, Nutrien to meet to discuss building $1-billion potash export facility in Canada

On Monday, The White House announced US$12-billion in aid for farmers who have faced steep losses this year because of his administration’s trade policy. These funds are unlikely to cover the total costs. They also will not address the problem of farm input costs – the largest of which is fertilizer – outstripping farm revenue.

In 2025, China didn’t buy U.S. soybeans until late October, months into harvest. Soybeans are one of the U.S.’s top agricultural exports, and China has historically been its largest market. The market closed because of the Trump administration’s trade war with the Asian giant.

Despite sales resuming at the end of October, total soybean sales to all destinations through early November were 40 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture.

The “Farmer Bridge Assistance Program” announced Monday is intended to help farmers market this year’s harvest and plan for next year’s crop. It has earmarked US$11-billion for row crop farmers.

But this won’t cover US$15-billion in nationwide losses accrued from trade war, and mounting input costs.

Fertilizer is one of the most costly inputs for a farm, accounting for more than 35 per cent of all operating costs for corn and wheat producers between 2006 and 2023. The three essential fertilizers are nitrogen, phosphate and potash.

The event that supercharged fertilizer prices was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said Veronica Nigh, chief economist at the Fertilizer Institute. Russia is the largest fertilizer producer in the world.

In 2021, China also imposed export restrictions on phosphate and cut shipments by 40 per cent. China supplies around 40 per cent of global processed phosphate.

The costs have since come down from peaks in 2021 however have not fallen at the same rate as crop prices. Continued geopolitical instability has driven volatility. For example, Iran and Egypt are major exporters of urea (a nitrogen fertilizer), and conflict in the Middle East disrupted supply chains and forced prices high, Ms. Nigh said.

As a result of these low crop prices and high inputs, this year farmers across the U.S. are expected to lose on average US$150 per acre, with total nationwide losses eclipsing US$15-billion, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. The USDAalso expects these costs to stay at elevated levels going into 2026.

According to a statement from the American Soybean Association, this perfect storm of low crop prices, high production costs and loss of markets will lead to the longest stretch of substantial production losses for farmers of the crop in two decades.

While more competition would be a good thing in the fertilizer sector, which is consolidated, price fixing is unlikelyto be happening, said Josh Linville, vice-president of fertilizer at StoneX, a financial services company. Global commodity prices respond to global demand.

Mr. Trump’s focus on Canadian potash is also especially misplaced, he said. Nitrogen and phosphate prices are substantially higher. Potash has remained fairly stable over the past year. Supply is matching demand.

Sovereign fertilizer production would be good for farmers, Ms. Nigh said, noting the geopolitical instability of the past five years. Growth has stalled across thesector in the past three years, she said. This is largely because of permitting challenges.

But nitrogen and phosphate would be a better focus for growth than potash, Ms. Nigh said. In 2024, the U.S. produced 14,000 tonnes of nitrogen, 5,734 tonnes of phosphate and just 420 tonnes of potash.

Potash production is tied to geography and geology. Potash is a rock mined from deposits thousands of metres under the ground. Very few places have abundant deposits. The U.S. has very little. Saskatchewan has the largest known reserves globally. And traditionally the U.S. and Canada have had very few trade disruptions, Mr. Linville said.

“We look at it as a North American market because, typically speaking, we get along quite well … a place where we truly need to place investment and increased production, it’s more on the phosphate side and nitrogen side.”

olicy volatility in the form of tariffs and trade wars is also unlikely to drive investment, Ms. Nigh said. Expanding or building new fertilizer plants costs billions of dollars and can take years.

Instead, the White House should follow the course charted over the past few months, she said. On Nov. 14, Mr. Trump issued an executive order to eliminate tariffs on imports of fertilizers.

These were good moves to bolster investment in fertilizer production, Ms. Nigh said, adding: Tariffs and accusations of price fixing are not.

“There is an underlying desire for some additional self-sufficiency or buffer,” Ms. Nigh said. “It’s about how we get there and we don’t want to cause harm to the domestic industry and to our important trade partners and to our growers.”

Monday December 8

China foreign reserves, trade surplus, aggregate yuan financing new yuan loans

Japan real cash earnings, real GDP and bank lending

Germany industrial production

Earnings include: Toll Brothers Inc.

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Tuesday December 9

Japan machine tool orders

Germany trade surplus

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey for October.

Also: U.S. Fed meeting begins

Earnings include: AutoZone Inc.; Ferguson Enterprises Inc.; Groupe Dynamite Inc.

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Wednesday December 10

China CPI and PPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. employment cost index for Q3. The Street expects a rise of 0.9 per cent from Q2 and up 3.7 per cent year-over-year.

(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement with Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference to follow.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement and summary of economic projections with Chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.

Earnings include: Lennar Corp.; Major Drilling Group International Inc.; Synopsys Inc.; TerraVest Industries Inc.; Transcontinental Inc.

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Thursday December 11

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for September.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s national balance sheet and financial flow accounts for Q3.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Dec. 6. Estimate is 215,000, up 24,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for September.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for September.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. quarterly services survey for Q3.

Earnings include: Adobe Systems Inc.; Broadcom Inc.; Costco Wholesale Corp.; Dollarama Inc.; Empire Co. Ltd.; Lululemon Athletica Inc.

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Friday December 12

Japan industrial production

Germany CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s capacity utilization for Q3.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s wholesale trade for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new

Avid PC Optimum points users might be wondering what will become of the loyalty program as EQB Inc. plans to take over PC Financial from Loblaw Cos. Ltd. and become the exclusive financial partner of the loyalty program. Loblaw spokeswoman Catherine Thomas assures loyalty program members will continue to be able to earn, hold and redeem points as usual and that their points will not be affected.  She also said the PC Optimum app will not change.  EQB Inc., the company behind the online-only EQ Bank, is buying PC Financial from Loblaw Cos. Ltd. for $800 million in shares and cash. Loblaw will continue to own and operate the PC Optimum loyalty program.  EQB chief executive Chadwick Westlake says PC Financial customers will also not see any immediate changes as the deal awaits regulatory approvals.  He says the bank will communicate with customers about how it will integrate the two brands and what users can expect from their everyday banking products after the deal is approved. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 4, 2025.

A key inflation measure was lower than expected in September, the Commerce Department said Friday in a report delayed by the government shutdown that gives a further green light for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, indicated a 0.2% monthly rise while the annual rate was 2.8%. The monthly rate was in line with the Dow Jones consensus, but the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

In addition, headline PCE increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate also at 2.8%, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Both of those readings were in line with expectations.

Federal Reserve officials use the PCE price index as their primary policy tool for inflation. While officials look at both measures, they generally consider core a better indicator of longer-term inflation trends.

The report was put off several weeks by the government shutdown, which had caused a halt to all data collection and economic reports.

Canada’s unemployment rate once again defied expectations and fell to a 16-month low in November as a solid gain in part-time jobs boosted the number of people employed for the third time in a row, data showed on Friday.

The unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points in November to 6.5 per cent, the lowest since July 2024, Statistics Canada said, adding it was led by 53,600 net job gains in November mainly among youth.

The job gains were driven by a 63,000 net additions in part-time work force linked to healthcare and social assistance sector, Statscan said.

With three months in a row of job gains, the Canadian economy has now added 181,000 new jobs since September, offsetting an almost no change in jobs for the first eight months when U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty choked hiring.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast employment to reduce by 5,000 jobs in November and the jobless rate to tick up to 7 per cent.

The improvement in unemployment rate was also helped by a reduction in total labour force as immigration curbs instituted by the government sent less people into the job market.

Canada’s unemployment rate had been steadily climbing since March, when U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed a raft of tariffs on critical sectors such as steel, aluminum, cars and every other industry that did not comply with a free trade deal.

https://charts.theglobeandmail.com/zssR9/2

The impact has been more acute among the youth, or those aged between 15 and 24 years.

But November and October were the outlier. Employment in this category was up by 50,000 in November, and with October, these were the first jumps in youth employment since the start of the year, Statscan said.

Economy was on stronger footing heading into trade war, Statscan revisions show

The youth unemployment rate fell 1.3 percentage points to 12.8 per cent in November, following a slight decline in October. In September the youth unemployment rate had peaked at a 15-year high.

Employment among the core-aged group, which account for two-thirds of the total labor force, was little changed in November.

The average hourly wage of permanent employees – a gauge closely tracked by the Bank of Canada to ascertain inflationary trends – stayed at 4 per cent in November, same as the previous month.