Category: Uncategorized

​Oil prices were heading on Tuesday for their biggest quarterly loss since ​the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, with investors ‌eyeing potential U.S.-Iran talks in Doha amid a strained interim ceasefire in the four-month-old war.

Brent August crude futures, which expire on Tuesday, were up 0.21 per cent, or 15 US cents, at US$73.30 a barrel ⁠at 9:02 a.m ET. However, the contract was on track for a third straight monthly decline, down about 20 per cent so far in June.

The more actively traded September contract gained 0.61 per cent, or 45 us cents, to US$74.36 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate for August rose 0.51 per cent, or ​36 us cents, to US$71.11 a barrel. However, the contract was ‌down for the second straight month, by about 19 per cent, so far in June.

Brent was down about 38 per cent for the quarter, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude had fallen about 30 per cent. Both Brent and WTI prices are close to where they were trading just before the start of ‌the U.S.-Israel war ​on Iran.

“I wouldn’t say ‌the market has priced out a risk premium, but previously stranded ships have become ​available with the increase in ships moving out of ⁠the Gulf, creating a temporary wave of new supply,” UBS analyst Giovanni ⁠Staunovo said.

Morgan Stanley said it now models an implied global oil market surplus of 4.8 million barrels ​per day in 2027.

Top U.S. envoys who have arrived in Doha will not hold a high-level meeting with Iran, a Qatari official said on Tuesday, casting doubt on the progress of efforts to bring a lasting halt to the Iran war and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Instead, there will ⁠be technical talks this week on issues including regional security that could later be elevated to senior level, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari told a media briefing.

The uncertainty over whether the two sides would meet highlighted the fragility of a June 17 agreement to pause fighting that has disrupted global oil flows through the ⁠Strait of Hormuz and posed a political challenge for ​U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of November’s congressional elections.

Analysts have cut their 2026 oil price ⁠forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, after five straight monthly increases, as the reopening of the ‌strait eased concerns over prolonged supply disruptions, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Iraq’s SOMO ​has offered wide discounts to its official selling prices to encourage term buyers to lift Basrah crude from its terminal inside the Middle East Gulf in July, according to trade sources and a document reviewed by Reuters

The Canadian economy was back in growth mode to start the second quarter, rebounding from a mild contraction in the first three months of 2026.

Statistics Canada said Tuesday that real gross domestic product rose 0.5 per cent in April, the fastest growth rate for the economy since July, 2025. The result topped Statscan’s early estimate for 0.4-per-cent growth in the month.

https://charts.theglobeandmail.com/9ROoY/8

Oil and gas extraction surged in April helped by higher synthetic crude oil production, which rebounded after unscheduled maintenance tempered growth to start the year, the agency said.

But growth was also widespread across industries in April. The manufacturing, construction and transportation and warehousing industries all posted gains, as did the public sector. A 0.7-per-cent gain in the construction industry was the sector’s first increase in five months.

Statscan said real estate agents’ and brokers’ offices were busier in April, marking the subsector’s first growth since August 2025 on the back of stronger home sales in the Greater Toronto Area.

The agency’s early estimates have growth moderating but continuing with an increase of 0.1 per cent in May thanks to growth in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing.

An economic contraction in March dragged real GDP by expenditure into barely negative territory for the first quarter of the year. That sparked rumblings of a recession after two consecutive quarterly contractions, though most economists argued that label was premature.

Multiple economists weighing in Tuesday morning said the April data reinforced that Canada is not in a recession.

BMO chief economist Doug Porter said calls of a recession based on the previous two quarters were a “false alarm.” The broad-based nature of the rebound is also encouraging, but Porter did not declare that a recovery was in full swing.

April’s rebound “is clearly a correction from the prolonged winter lull and is unlikely to persist,” he said in a note to clients. The more modest May gains are also a reminder the economy is still growing below potential.

“April’s GDP rebound shows the economy is still chugging along, even if growth remains sluggish and not especially strong,” said Andrew DiCapua, principal economist for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a media statement.

A separate release from Statscan on Tuesday detailing energy statistics in the economy showed exports of refined petroleum surged 69.7 per cent year-over-year as the war in Iran pushed prices higher globally.

Production of crude oil and equivalents rose 4.2 per cent in April, which Statscan said was the 11th consecutive month of year-over-year increases.

Oilsands extraction contributed the most to the stronger activity in April, though offshore production from Newfoundland and Labrador also hit its highest levels since March, 2020.

Crude oil exports to the United States by pipeline rose 8.8 per cent annually in April, while exports to Asia and Europe jumped 46.6 per cent. The agency pointed to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as hampering crude oil supply from the region.

The April and early May GDP estimate put the second quarter of the year on track for growth topping 2 per cent annualized, Porter said, which would overshoot the Bank of Canada’s expectation for 1.5-per-cent growth in the quarter.

https://charts.theglobeandmail.com/yMCN3/6

The central bank is set for its next interest rate decision on July 15.

Thomas Ryan, North America economist with Capital Economics, said in a note the second quarter of the year will also get a lift from activity related to the FIFA World Cup.

Despite signs of second-quarter momentum, Ryan said the first-quarter miss means growth over the first half of 2026 could still fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations.

“While this should put a firm end to any debate about whether the economy is in recession, growth over the first half of the year is still set to average considerably below the Bank of Canada’s forecast, supporting our view that rate hikes are a long way off,” he said.

The biggest source of uncertainty for personal finances in Canada is a certain warmongering U.S. president.

Next comes the state of federal government finances. Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, we have a stated objective of building the economy through strategic investments and substantially increasing defence spending. We also have a persistent yearly gap between government spending and revenues, a.k.a. the deficit.

While the government has made some spending cuts, it’s unclear right now how it will afford its spending agenda without increasing the deficit to worrying levels. Some of the more obvious options include higher taxes, cuts to Old Age Security and spending reductions that download costs to provinces, municipalities and individuals.

Last fall, Mr. Carney told Canadians it would take some sacrifices to address the challenges facing the country. Now, we need details. It’s getting harder to plan for the future without them.

Opinion: What will you sacrifice for Carney and country?

Let’s acknowledge the difficulty of laying out a grand plan for government finances right now. U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran war pushed upenergy prices from year-ago levels, and inflation has kicked higher as a result. Mr. Trump’s trade war is being fought in negotiations over the U.S.–Mexico-Canada Agreement, and it weighs heavy on the economy.

The next federal budget isn’t expected until next fall, though. There’s enough time until then to combine economic policy with at least an outline of changes to taxation and spending on programs like OAS.

Here’s a quick summary of what the government is up against. The federal deficit was $55.3-billion for the period from April, 2025, to March, 2026, compared with $43.2-billion over the same time a year earlier. Meantime, the government has committed to increasing defence spending to 3.5 per cent of economic output in the years ahead from the current 2-per-cent level.

Blowing out the deficit to afford a defence build-up could alarm foreign investors, who would require higher interest rates to continue buying federal government bonds. These interest rate hikes would increase the financial burden on federal finances, and they could trickle down to your household in the form of higher borrowing costs for mortgages and lines of credit.

To balance its budget, or at least contain the deficit, the government likely needs to use a combination of spending cuts and revenue increases. Further to the sacrifice theme, raising the GST a percentage point or two from the current 5-per-cent level is an option. Obviously, such a move requires a more generous sales tax rebate for lower-income people.

A higher GST might discourage consumption at some level, but the affluent have shown a willingness to spend in uncertain times. This is today’s K-shaped economy in action – the financially comfortable, who are seeing their circumstances improve, are the upper arm of the K, while financially struggling households are the lower arm.

Preparing for a higher GST by spending now on high-cost items seems pointless – who knows if the government has the guts to try this obvious revenue source? But it’s not too soon to consider the result of effort to pare the massive cost of OAS.

Modernizing Old Age Security would free billions for Ottawa to address affordability

An increase in the start age for OAS to 67 from 65 was announced and cancelled by previous governments. What hasn’t been tried is a more aggressive clawback of OAS benefits for high-income seniors.

Perhaps the clawback could be calibrated to household income rather than individual. Or, the clawback could be introduced at lower levels than the $93,454 for payments made between July of this year through next June. It seems a no-brainer to lower the income level where OAS is fully clawed back – it sits at $152,062 for retirees aged 65 to 74, and $157,923 for those 75 and up.

Reforming OAS should be done as soon as possible, if that’s a direction the government wants to go. Baby boomers continue to retire in large numbers, and they need hard info on OAS benefits to properly plan their future income flow.

Tax-wise, the last Liberal government tried to increase taxes owing on capital gains above $250,000, but couldn’t find a way to fight the “persecution of the rich” narrative that resulted. The Carney government cancelled this tax hike, but it has to be considering other ways for the wealthiest to contribute more to government tax revenue.

Regardless of where the government comes down on taxes, it would be nice to get a definitive word about future plans.

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Rob Carrick is a personal finance expert and former Globe and Mail staff columnist.

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Monday, with the Dow hitting a record closing high, as ⁠weekend hostilities ​between the United States and Iran eased and as major technology-related shares rose following recent selling.

The TSX, however, ended lower in a relatively broad decline. Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management, said it wasn’t clear why Canadian and U.S. markets diverged, but that it may have to do with the shortened week in Canada and the U.S., with traders “closing out some positions.”

He said the moves in the market appeared to be driven by sentiment, “but where that sentiment is coming from is the real challenge.”

The S&P/TSX Composite index ended down 156.18 points, ​or 0.5%, at 34,823.82.

Just two of the 10 major sectors ended higher, including heavily weighted financials, which added 0.3%.

The price ​of oil settled 2.2% higher at US$70.75 a barrel after attacks by the U.S. and Iran underscored the fragility of their interim peace deal, while cautious hopes of a continued recovery in energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz ⁠limited gains. Even with the higher crude price, the TSX energy sector ended with slight losses.

The materials group, which includes metal mining shares, fell 1.1%. The price of gold was down 1.8%, moving toward the bottom of its ⁠range since November. Consumer discretionary fell 1%, with shares of apparel retailer ​Aritzia Inc down 2.9%, while consumer staples ended 1.7% lower.

The U.S. and Iran on June 17 signed a memorandum ‌of understanding aimed at ending the conflict. Under the document, both sides agreed to cease hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“The fact that we had hostilities between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend really didn’t have a negative effect on the market,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. “The ‌market is ​looking forward and preparing for ‌earnings season, which is not that far away,” he said.

Most S&P 500 companies are set to ​begin reporting second-quarter results after mid-July. Communications services led gains among ⁠S&P 500 sectors.

Shares of Comcast rose 4.5% after the media and cable provider said ⁠it plans to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies through a tax-free spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky.

SpaceX jumped 7.2% ​after Nasdaq said the newly listed company will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7. Google parent Alphabet closed up 4.8% as it kicked off its first day as a Dow component.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 306.63 points, or 0.59%, to 52,182.74, the S&P 500 gained 86.41 points, or 1.18%, to 7,440.43 and the ⁠Nasdaq Composite gained 522.53 points, or 2.07%, to 25,820.14.

Concerns about AI spending had hit shares of artificial intelligence-related companies recently, including semiconductors and many of the Magnificent Seven group of megacap stocks. On Monday, the information technology index gained 1.7%. RBC Capital Markets cited earnings strength and a supportive macro ⁠backdrop as it raised its 12-month target for the ​S&P 500 index to 8,150 from 7,900.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.54-to-1 ratio on the New York Stock Exchange. There were 272 new highs ‌and 114 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 3,017 stocks rose and 1,919 fell as advancing issues outnumbered ​decliners by a 1.57-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted no new 52-week highs and no new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded no new highs and no new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 20.15 billion shares, compared with the 23.50 billion average for the full session over ​the last 20 trading days.

Reuters, The Canadian Press, Globe staff

Several Gulf countries have strongly denounced Iran’s Saturday drone strikes on the island nation of Bahrain, while vowing to stand united against any possible aggression from Tehran in the future.

This escalation poses the greatest threat yet to the memorandum of understanding signed last week by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

After Iran struck a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, the U.S. launched overnight airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone and radar sites. Iran responded Saturday with the drone strikes on Bahrain, which hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/gulf-countries-strongly-condemn-irans-drone-attack-bahrain-rising-tensions-threaten-mou

Executive Summary

• Highest-impact TSX driver: Middle East / Strait of Hormuz risk. Oil sensitivity affects TSX Energy, inflation expectations, CAD, and rate-cut odds. U.S. strikes on Iran followed an Iranian drone attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping crude risk elevated.
• Main economic event: U.S. June payrolls on Thursday, July 2. A strong jobs print would pressure rate-sensitive TSX sectors; a weak print would support bonds, utilities, REITs, and gold.
• Canada data: Canada April GDP is due Tuesday, June 30. This matters for banks, consumer discretionary, industrials, and BoC rate expectations.
• Liquidity risk: TSX is closed Wednesday, July 1 for Canada Day, while U.S. markets are closed Friday, July 3 for Independence Day observed. Expect lower volume and sharper moves around data/geopolitical headlines.
• Trade risk remains a background drag: U.S.–Canada tariff uncertainty continues to affect autos, industrials, materials, and exporters. RBC calls the trade shock a “slow leak,” not a single-day shock.

Key Drivers for TSX — Week Ending July 3, 2026

Date	Factor	TSX Impact Channel	Sectors Most Exposed
Mon–Fri	Middle East / Strait of Hormuz	Oil up = TSX Energy support; oil spike = inflation/rate risk	Energy, pipelines, airlines, consumer
Tue, Jun 30	Canada April GDP	Weak GDP = BoC cut expectations; strong GDP = less rate relief	Banks, REITs, consumer, industrials
Tue, Jun 30	U.S. consumer confidence / housing	U.S. demand signal for cyclicals	Industrials, materials, discretionary
Wed, Jul 1	TSX closed, Canada Day	No Canadian trading; risk can gap into Thursday	All sectors
Wed, Jul 1	U.S. ADP, ISM Manufacturing	Manufacturing strength supports cyclicals but may lift yields	Materials, industrials, tech
Thu, Jul 2	U.S. nonfarm payrolls	Strong jobs = higher yields; weak jobs = defensive/rate-cut bid	Banks, REITs, utilities, gold
Fri, Jul 3	U.S. markets closed	Lower liquidity; TSX open but U.S. price discovery limited	All sectors

What to Watch by Market Driver

1. Oil and Middle East risk

Bullish for TSX Energy: If WTI/Brent rises on renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption, Canadian energy names and pipelines may outperform.

Bearish for broader TSX: A sharp oil spike also lifts inflation risk, pressures consumers, and can push yields higher. That hurts REITs, utilities, consumer discretionary, and rate-sensitive growth stocks.

WTI was reported around US$69–70 after-hours following the U.S. retaliatory strike, with Brent near US$72–73. The issue is not just price level; it is volatility and shipping risk.

2. U.S. payrolls — Thursday, July 2

This is the week’s cleanest macro catalyst.

Payroll Outcome	Likely Market Read	TSX Bias
Strong jobs / sticky wages	Fed stays tighter for longer	Negative for REITs, utilities, gold; mixed for banks
Soft jobs, not recessionary	Rate-cut expectations rise	Positive for REITs, utilities, gold, quality growth
Very weak jobs	Recession concern	Defensive bid; cyclicals and banks under pressure

Consensus cited by Kiplinger was about 100,000 jobs and unemployment around 4.3% for June.

3. Canada GDP — Tuesday, June 30

Canada April GDP matters because the TSX has heavy exposure to banks, consumers, industrials, and housing-linked sectors.

GDP Result	Read-Through
Above expectations	Supports banks/cyclicals; may reduce urgency for BoC cuts
Below expectations	Supports rate-cut narrative; negative for domestic growth stocks
Weak GDP + high oil	Worst mix: stagflation risk

S&P Global recently described Canada as “resilient, not strong,” noting the economy stalled in Q1 2026 with real GDP down 0.1% annualized after a 1.0% annualized contraction in Q4 2025.

4. U.S.–Canada trade and tariff risk

Watch for headlines on autos, steel, aluminum, copper, lumber, and CUSMA/USMCA positioning. This is most relevant to:

Sector / Group	Risk
Autos / parts	MG.TO, LNR.TO, suppliers exposed to U.S. demand and tariffs
Materials	Steel, aluminum, copper, lumber exposure
Industrials	Export demand, margins, supply-chain costs
Consumer	Higher import costs, weaker household confidence

CFIB notes that CUSMA-compliant goods remain exempt from some tariffs, but steel, aluminum, copper, some auto parts, lumber, and wood products remain exposed under other U.S. rules.

5. Gold, CAD, and rates

Gold should be watched as both a geopolitical hedge and a real-rate trade.

Signal	TSX Read
Gold up + yields down	Positive for TSX gold miners
Gold up + oil up + yields up	Inflation shock; miners may rise but broader TSX weakens
CAD strengthens	Helps foreign investor confidence but can pressure exporters
CAD weakens	Supports exporters/energy translation, but may signal risk-off

Scenarios for the Week

Scenario	Conditions	Likely TSX Movement
Bull	Oil stable, U.S. payrolls soft but not recessionary, Canada GDP decent	TSX grinds higher; REITs/utilities/gold improve; banks stable
Base	Mixed data, oil volatile but no Strait closure	Choppy/range-bound TSX; sector rotation dominates index level
Bear	Iran/Hormuz escalation + strong U.S. payrolls or inflation scare	Energy may outperform, but broad TSX sells off on yield/inflation risk

What Would Disprove the Base Case

• WTI breaks sharply higher on verified shipping disruption through Hormuz.
• U.S. payrolls are much stronger than expected, pushing yields higher.
• Canada GDP materially disappoints, increasing recession concern.
• Trade headlines hit autos, metals, lumber, or broader CUSMA-sensitive exporters.
• Gold fails to rise despite geopolitical stress, suggesting real yields/USD are dominating safe-haven demand.

Actionable Takeaways

• Watch oil first, then U.S. payrolls, then Canada GDP.
• Expect lower-liquidity trading because of the Canada Day and U.S. Independence Day observed closures.
• Energy strength may not mean the whole TSX is healthy; it could reflect geopolitical risk.
• A soft U.S. jobs report is supportive only if it does not look recessionary.
• Best risk barometer: oil + yields + CAD + gold moving together. If oil and yields rise while CAD weakens, TSX risk increases.

Monday June 29

China industrial profits and Japan retail sales for May

Euro area economic confidence survey

Earnings include: Tecsys Inc.

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Tuesday June 30

China purchasing manager surveys for June. Japan employment and industrial production data for May

Germany employment and inflation data. France inflation and consumer spending data. Italy inflation data and UK GDP data

830 am ET: Canada monthly real GDP for April. Consensus is for a rise of 0.4%

9 am ET: U.S. house price indexes

10 am ET: U.S. job openings & labour turnover survey

10 am ET: U.S. conference board consumer confidence index

Earnings include: Constellation Brands Inc.; Nike Inc.

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Wednesday July 1

Japan manufacturing PMIs and consumer confidence data

Euro area inflation data for June and manufacturing PMIs

Canadian markets closed for Canada Day

USMCA trade pact review day

815 am ET: U.S. ADP national employment report for June

9 am ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Fed Chair Warsh join a panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

945 am ET: U.S. S&P global manufacturing PMI for June

10 am ET: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June

10 am ET: U.S. construction spending for May

Earnings include: General Mills Inc.

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Thursday July 2

Euro area employment data

930 am ET: Canada S&P global manufacturing PMI for June

830 am ET: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June. Consensus is for job gains of 115,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Initial weekly jobless gains also to be released.

10 am ET: U.S. factory orders for May.

Canada auto sales for June

Earnings include: Levi Strauss & Co.

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Friday July 3

China and Japan services PMIs

Euro area services PMI; France industrial and manufacturing data; Italy retail sales

U.S. markets closed for Independence Day

Summary

• Gold fell over the past ~10 days: about US$4,338.86/oz on Jun. 16 → US$4,087.01/oz on Jun. 26 = -US$251.85 / -5.8%.
• Main driver: stronger U.S. dollar + higher Fed rate-hike expectations.
• Gold briefly fell below US$4,000/oz on Jun. 24 as hawkish Fed signals pressured non-yielding assets.
• It rebounded on Jun. 25–26 after U.S. inflation data softened the dollar and yields, but still finished the week down about 3% and marked a fourth straight weekly decline.
• Bottom line: short-term gold trend was negative, with a late bounce that has not yet reversed the downtrend.

Price Action

Date / Point	Gold Price	Move
Jun. 16	~US$4,338.86/oz	Rally on lower rate-hike fears
Jun. 23	~US$4,131.24/oz	Fell as USD hit one-year high
Jun. 24	Below US$4,000/oz intraday	Hawkish Fed pressure
Jun. 26	US$4,087.01/oz	Rebound, but still weak

Why Gold Fell

1. U.S. dollar strengthened

Gold is priced in USD. When the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for non-U.S. buyers. Reuters said the dollar hit a one-year high on Jun. 23, which pressured gold.

2. Fed rate-hike expectations rose

Gold pays no yield. When markets expect higher rates, bonds and cash become more competitive. Reuters noted that hawkish Fed signals increased rate-hike expectations and hurt gold.

3. Middle East risk premium faded

Earlier, gold was supported by U.S.-Iran uncertainty. But peace-deal optimism lowered oil prices and reduced inflation fears. That reduced gold’s safe-haven bid.

4. Late rebound was dollar/yield driven

Gold rose on Jun. 25–26 because U.S. inflation data pushed the dollar and Treasury yields lower. But the bounce was not enough to erase the weekly loss.

Key Levels

Level	Meaning
US$4,000	Psychological support
US$4,087	Jun. 26 level
US$4,130–4,150	Near-term resistance
US$4,338	Recent 10-day high area

Scenarios

Scenario	Trigger	Gold implication
Bull	USD weakens, yields fall, Fed hike odds decline	Reclaim US$4,150–4,250
Base	Mixed inflation/rate signals	Range US$4,000–4,150
Bear	Dollar strengthens, Fed stays hawkish	Break below US$4,000

Actionable Takeaways

Gold’s 10-day move was mainly a rates-and-dollar selloff, not a collapse in long-term gold demand. The key signal is US$4,000/oz: holding above it keeps gold range-bound; breaking below it confirms more downside pressure.

Summary

• TTTK fell over the past 10 trading sessions: 307.50 on Jun. 15 → 296.55 on Jun. 26 = -10.95 points / -3.6%.
• Weakness was concentrated on Jun. 16–18, especially Jun. 18: -2.51%.
• The index rebounded on Jun. 24: +3.26%, but gave back part of that move on Jun. 25: -1.31%.
• Driver: tech volatility + valuation pressure, not a broad TSX collapse.
• TTTK remains well below its 52-week high of 372.44, with current level around 296.55.

10-Day Price Action

Date	Close	Daily Move
Jun. 15	307.50	+1.21%
Jun. 16	303.45	-1.32%
Jun. 17	299.67	-1.25%
Jun. 18	292.16	-2.51%
Jun. 19	293.05	+0.30%
Jun. 22	291.43	-0.55%
Jun. 23	290.38	-0.36%
Jun. 24	299.85	+3.26%
Jun. 25	295.92	-1.31%
Jun. 26	296.55	+0.21%

Source: Investing.com historical data.

Why It Moved

1. Tech sold off mid-period

TTTK dropped from 307.50 to 292.16 between Jun. 15 and Jun. 18, a -5.0% move. That was the main damage. The sector was hit by risk-off trading and pressure on growth/tech names.

2. Broader TSX volatility added pressure

Reuters reported TSX weakness around Jun. 23 was driven partly by a technology selloff on Wall Street and lower commodity prices. That hurt sentiment toward Canadian tech as well.

3. Jun. 24 rebound was a technical bounce

TTTK rose +3.26% on Jun. 24, recovering part of the previous decline. But the next day it fell -1.31%, so the bounce was not a clean breakout.

4. Valuation remains a constraint

The iShares XIT ETF, which tracks the same benchmark, showed a P/E ratio of 43.96 and P/B ratio of 6.17 as of Jun. 25. That means the sector is still priced for growth, making it sensitive to earnings expectations, rates, and AI/tech sentiment.

Valuation Logic

Factor	Impact
High P/E	Negative when risk appetite weakens
AI/tech sentiment	Supports long-term interest
Short-term volatility	Negative
Jun. 24 rebound	Supportive, but not confirmed
Still below 52-week high	Shows sector has not fully recovered

Key Levels

Level	Meaning
290	Recent support zone
300	Near-term resistance
307–308	Previous 10-day high area
372.44	52-week high

Scenarios

Scenario	Trigger	TTTK implication
Bull	Breaks back above 300–308	Momentum improves
Base	Holds 290–300	Range-bound
Bear	Breaks below 290	Further downside risk

Actionable Takeaways

TTTK’s past 10-day move was a tech-sector pullback, not a collapse. The index fell mainly from Jun. 16–18, bounced on Jun. 24, then stalled below 300. The key signal is whether it can reclaim 300–308; failure keeps it range-bound or vulnerable.