Category: Uncategorized

The week was mixed but generally defensive across Asia. The common macro pressures were oil above US$100, sharply higher long-term U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and uncertainty around U.S.–Iran and U.S.–China relations. Reuters noted that longer-dated U.S. yields reached two-decade highs, while Brent was around US$105/bbl.

Index	Sept. 25 close	Weekly move	Main story
ASX 200	8,665	~−0.7%	Oil/yields + weakness in tech, lithium & property
Nikkei 225	66,364	+2.1%	AI/chips + dividend buying
Nifty 50	23,140.50	−0.88%	Oil, yields & foreign outflows
Hang Seng	24,510	~−1.0%	China uncertainty + tech/insurance selling
Shanghai Composite	3,888.37	~−0.6%	Pre-holiday caution & limited U.S.–China breakthrough

Weekly figures are consistent with the Sept. 25 market summaries; Shanghai and Hong Kong were affected by the Mid-Autumn holiday, while Japan’s week was holiday-shortened.

🇦🇺 ASX 200 — defensive pressure

The ASX 200 fell about 0.7% for the week, finishing Friday at 8,665, its lowest level since June. Friday alone was −0.43%. M

The interesting part was the sector split:

• Technology fell 1.66% Friday.
• Consumer discretionary fell 1.37%.
• Utilities fell 1.25%.
• Materials fell 0.84%.
• Financials actually gained 0.27%.
• Lithium miners were hit as Chinese lithium-carbonate futures weakened.
• Wealth-platform stocks were pressured by developments surrounding a First Guardian class action.

What it means: Australia’s market is particularly sensitive to the combination of commodity prices + China + global bond yields. Higher oil helps energy producers but raises inflation concerns; weaker Chinese commodity demand hurts parts of Australia’s materials complex.

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🇯🇵 Nikkei — the standout

Japan was the clear positive outlier.

The Nikkei 225 gained just over 2% for the holiday-shortened week, closing Friday at 66,364.20, after gaining 1.30% on Friday alone. IIndo Premier Sekuritas

Two forces dominated:

1. AI/chip enthusiasm

Tokyo Electron rose 4.82% and Advantest 2.84%, while Ibiden gained 4.2% Friday after a much larger gain the previous session. Semiconductor-related companies were major contributors. IIndo Premier Sekuritas

2. Dividend buying

Investors were buying shares ahead of the deadline for qualifying for Japan’s mid-term dividends. Banks were particularly strong; the TSE banking sector rose 4.08% Friday. IIndo Premier Sekuritas

There was also an important bond-market development: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached 3.075%, its highest since 1996, as Japanese markets reopened after the Silver Week holiday.

Bottom line: Japan’s equity market was able to shrug off the global bond/yield pressure because AI/chip momentum and dividend demand were powerful enough to dominate during the week.

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🇮🇳 Nifty 50 — oil is the problem

The Nifty 50 fell 0.88%, ending at 23,140.50. More importantly, this was its seventh consecutive weekly decline.

The principal macro problem for India is oil.

India imports a substantial amount of its energy, so higher crude prices can:

• increase India’s import bill;
• put pressure on the rupee;
• increase inflation concerns;
• keep Indian bond yields elevated;
• reduce expectations for easier monetary policy;
• squeeze corporate margins and consumers.

At the same time, elevated U.S. Treasury yields encouraged global investors to remain cautious toward emerging-market equities. Reuters specifically highlighted high oil prices, rising bond yields and foreign fund outflows as major pressures on Indian equities. MMarketScreener Canada

The Nifty’s seven-week losing streak is notable: Reuters reported that stretches of seven or more weekly declines had occurred only four times in the preceding 25 years, with the previous episodes including 2020, 2008 and 2001. MMarketScreener Canada

Bottom line: India wasn’t suffering from a China-style growth shock; it was primarily a macro/valuation/liquidity problem, with oil and global yields working against equities.

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🇭🇰 Hang Seng — China uncertainty returns

The Hang Seng fell about 1% for the week, finishing Friday at 24,510.09, its lowest level in two months. Friday’s decline was also about 1%. IIndo Premier Sekuritas

The immediate catalyst was uncertainty following the Trump–Xi summit.

The two sides extended their trade truce, but investors received limited evidence of breakthroughs on:

• AI and technology;
• trade;
• Taiwan;
• investment;
• Iran/geopolitical issues. IIndo Premier Sekuritas

Technology and insurance stocks led Friday’s decline: AIA fell 2.7% and Alibaba 1.5%. IIndo Premier Sekuritas

An important market-structure issue also mattered: mainland China was closed Friday and southbound Stock Connect trading was shut, producing unusually thin Hong Kong trading.

Bottom line: Hong Kong investors wanted more concrete evidence from the U.S.–China meeting. The extension of the truce reduced some tail risk, but it didn’t remove the underlying technology/trade/geopolitical disputes.

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🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite — quiet, cautious week

The Shanghai Composite finished at 3,888.37, with the weekly change around −0.6%.

The number needs some qualification because mainland Chinese markets were closed Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival. They were scheduled to reopen Monday for only three trading sessions before the National Day holiday.

So Shanghai didn’t get a Friday session in which investors could directly react to the final Trump–Xi developments.

That makes the Hang Seng a more immediate indicator of how investors interpreted the summit at the end of the week.

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The big picture

I’d characterize the week as a three-way split:

Japan = AI + dividends → ↑

Australia/India = oil + yields → ↓

Hong Kong/China = U.S.–China uncertainty + holidays → ↓

The common denominator was the global bond market. U.S. long-term yields surged, with the 10-year around 5.2% and the 30-year around 5.48% late in the week. At the same time, Brent remained around US$105.

That combination is important because it raises the discount rate applied to equities while simultaneously increasing inflation concerns. High-growth/long-duration stocks are particularly sensitive to higher yields, while oil-importing economies such as India face an additional earnings/inflation problem.

One-line takeaway

Asia’s week was not a broad risk-off collapse: Japan’s AI-led rally stood out, while Australia and India were squeezed by oil and yields, and Chinese/Hong Kong equities remained constrained by unresolved U.S.–China issues and holiday-thinned trading.

• U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in a historic state dinner on Thursday, joined by bosses at tech giants including Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI and SpaceX.
• AI was a key topic of conversation during Trump-Xi talks earlier in the day, after safety concerns shot to the top of the global geopolitical agenda in recent weeks.
• While the China camp’s post-meeting readout sounded friendly, there were flashpoints that could’ve made for a tense conversation.

It’s the morning after the night before, as the U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in a historic state dinner. Fricassée, sea bass and crémeux were all on the menu, as presumably, was a whole lot of chatter about AI. 

Seated with the U.S. and Chinese presidential couples were Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and his wife Lori Huang, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and AMD’s Lisa Su, as well as Apple’s Tim Cook. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and president Greg Brockman, Google cofounder Sergey Brin and Microsoft boss Satya Nadella were also all on the guest list.

Warnings around the existential risks of AI reaching fever pitch in recent weeks have pushed AI to the top of the global geopolitical agenda.

Trump posted to Truth Social ahead of his and Xi’s head-to-head.

“Super Intelligence (SI) will be a big topic of discussion, but I want to leave it exactly where it is. That is China’s position also,” he wrote Thursday morning, using the term he recently adopted instead of AI.

So what did they actually discuss?

China pushes AI cooperation

A Chinese readout of the meeting said President Xi pointed out that China and the U.S. “may have competition, but they may cooperate even more” in AI.

“The two sides can continue their dialogue on AI, exchange views on its risks and benefits, and jointly prevent the misuse and abuse of AI,” Xi said, per the readout. “AI must be kept under human control. A people-centered approach should be upheld, and AI should be developed for the positive and for good, so that AI will serve the progress of humanity.”

Trump, the Chinese readout stated, said the two sides should “maintain dialogue and strengthen cooperation on AI.” The U.S. government had not issued its own readout of the summit as we went live.

Those references to cooperation come after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed a “U.S.-China AI dialogue” with his Chinese counterpart, He Lifeng, over the weekend, including a channel for incidents “up to a national security level.”

That has been compared to the Cold War era “red phone” — a direct channel between the U.S. and Russia designed to prevent a nuclear crisis escalating.

Both U.S. and Chinese administrations had already shot down the idea of guardrails or a slowdown in developing the tech, which Altman and Anthropic’s Dario Amodei had called for, alongside a number of their companies’ researchers.

Flashpoints

While more details about the meeting are expected to be released in the days to come, specifics are scant so far.

“It appears we ended up with an intent to continue dialogue, along with a hotline of some sort for emergencies,” Aalok Mehta, director of the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC.

While the China camp’s post-meeting readout sounds friendly, there were a number of flashpoints that could’ve made for a tense conversation.

U.S. export controls that restrict China’s ability to import advanced Nvidia chips were set to remain a sticking point. 

Though, as CNBC reported on Wednesday, recent new chip releases and AI models from Chinese tech giants sharpen Beijing’s case that Washington’s restrictions have their limits.

Friction could also have come from Chinese companies’ reported remote access to Nvidia chips, via overseas data centers, and American claims of “distillation.” 

Time will tell if any progress was made on those issues. And if it was, there’s no guarantee if either side will reveal any specific commitments.

But ongoing discussions could lead to agreements around AI with more substance, said Mehta. 

“The hotline itself could become a robust tool when paired with a proper incident reporting system. But that will take real commitment to making it work and high-level engagement from both sides.”

News edit

An OpenAI agent gained unauthorized access to an Australian government website, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said, raising fresh questions about the risks posed by increasingly autonomous systems.

Anthropic and OpenAI on Tuesday each announced new, less costly AI models as both frontier labs continue to face stiff competition from cheaper, open-weight competitors.

AMD stock surged 10% on Monday, pushing shares to a record high and topping a $1 trillion market cap benchmark for the first time.

Qualcomm unveiled its newest Android phone chipsets, which will be tuned for on-device AI and will compete with Apple’s A20 Pro in iPhones.

OpenAI on Monday posted a set of proposals for AI safety with a heavy focus on alignment research and a computing technique known as recursive self-improvement, or RSI.

One more thing

And lastly, we leave you with a hot take from an esteemed colleague. Senior tech correspondent Arjun Kharpal had this to say on Meta’s Muse agent:

Meta’s Muse is more of a challenge to Google than OpenAI and Anthropic. 

The consumer AI market is still up for grabs and the biggest players are going to be those that can produce a useful agent, the type that companies have promised. Plus, they’ll need to earn the trust of users, especially as we have had all of these cybersecurity incidents recently.

Google has all the ingredients to have done this first — control of a mobile operating system in Android, search dominance, a plethora of apps from email to maps. All of that should have allowed it to create a useful agent with Gemini that could potentially be powerful on Android devices, which make up the majority of the world’s smartphones. 

But Meta has beaten it to the punch. 

That’s not to say Google is down and out, but Meta has certainly laid down the gauntlet. To some extent, Meta is also challenging Apple to come up with something strong with Siri to ensure the Cupertino giant can leverage its massive install base of iOS users.

Over and out.

NTR.TO — Why Nutrien’s Share Price Has Declined

Summary

• NTR.TO closed at C$104.67 on Sept. 24, down about 5.3% from C$110.53 on Sept. 17.
• The largest recent catalyst is the proposed U.S. deal to buy lower-priced potash from Belarus, potentially reducing U.S. reliance on Canadian potash. Nutrien dropped about 3.2% on Sept. 21 following the announcement.
• Investors are concerned that additional Belarusian supply could pressure North American potash prices and Nutrien’s margins.
• However, the proposed Belarus deal lacks important details on volume, price, timing and logistics, so its actual impact remains uncertain.
• Nutrien itself continues to describe the global potash market as constructive, forecasting 74–77 million tonnes of global shipments in 2026.

Key Drivers

Driver	NTR.TO impact	Importance
Proposed U.S.–Belarus potash deal	Negative	High
Risk of lower potash prices	Negative	High
U.S.–Canada trade tensions	Negative	High
Q2 earnings below expectations	Negative	Medium
Strong underlying global potash demand	Positive	Medium/Long term
Tight nitrogen market	Positive	Medium
Belarus logistics/supply constraints	Limits downside	Medium

The immediate issue is potash competition. The U.S. currently depends heavily on Canadian potash, and the Trump administration says it is discussing purchasing Belarusian potash at prices below Canadian supplies. That raises the possibility that Nutrien could lose some U.S. market share or have to compete more aggressively on price.

There is an important qualification: analysts have questioned how much Belarus could realistically ship into the U.S. because of transportation constraints, existing supply commitments and logistical complications. That means the market may currently be pricing in a risk that ultimately proves smaller than initially feared.

The decline also comes after weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings. Nutrien missed profit estimates because lower potash and nitrogen sales volumes offset higher fertilizer prices. That makes investors particularly sensitive to anything suggesting future potash volumes could weaken further.

Short-Term vs. Longer-Term

Short term: sentiment is likely to remain sensitive to announcements about Belarus, Canadian-U.S. trade relations and potash pricing.

Longer term: Nutrien’s underlying fertilizer fundamentals have not clearly deteriorated. Management continues to expect strong potash demand, healthy affordability and global shipments of 74–77 million tonnes in 2026. Nitrogen markets are also expected to remain relatively tight.

What to Watch

The most important indicators now are potash prices, whether the U.S.–Belarus deal becomes a binding commercial agreement, the actual Belarusian tonnage entering North America, Nutrien’s potash sales volumes, and whether NTR.TO can stabilize around its recent C$102–105 area.

The thesis that this is mainly a news-driven correction rather than a fundamental deterioration would weaken if Belarus begins delivering significant low-cost volumes into the U.S., potash prices fall materially, or Nutrien reduces its shipment/earnings outlook.

Bottom line: the recent NTR.TO decline is primarily about the market pricing in new competition for Canadian potash from Belarus, amplified by existing U.S.–Canada trade uncertainty and some concern following weaker Q2 volumes. So far, Nutrien’s broader potash-demand outlook remains considerably stronger than the share-price reaction alone might suggest.

NTR.TO — 5-Day Levels & 3-Month Scenario

Price basis: C$104.67 at the Sept. 24, 2026 close. NTR has fallen about 5.3% over five trading days, largely around the Belarus-potash announcement.

Executive Summary

• 5-day bias: neutral-to-bearish while NTR remains below roughly C$107–108.
• Key support: C$102.50–103.00.
• Key resistance: C$107–108, followed by C$110.50–113.75.
• 3-month base range: approximately C$104–112.
• The biggest variable is no longer current operating performance; it is whether the proposed U.S.–Belarus potash arrangement becomes commercially significant.

1. Five-Day Technical View

Recent TSX trading provides fairly clear reference points:

Level	Range	Interpretation
Resistance 2	C$110.50–113.75	September highs
Resistance 1	C$107–108	First recovery hurdle
Current reference	C$104.67	Sept. 24 close
Support 1	C$102.50–103.00	Critical near-term support
Support 2	C$99.50–101.50	Next support zone if C$102.50 fails

On Sept. 21, NTR traded as low as C$102.56 following the Belarus announcement. It rebounded to C$106.23 the next session, with volume rising to about 6.85 million shares, suggesting buyers appeared around the C$103 area.

The technical interpretation is therefore:

Above C$108: recent selling pressure starts to weaken materially.

C$103–108: consolidation/range trading.

Below C$102.50: raises the possibility of a move toward approximately C$100.

A recovery above roughly C$110.50 would be more significant because that would take NTR back above the level where the latest decline accelerated.

2. Fundamental Position

The recent decline should be distinguished from Nutrien’s underlying operating performance.

Nutrien reported Q2 adjusted EBITDA of US$2.43 billion and adjusted EPS of US$2.61. Management also said first-half potash sales volumes reached record levels.

Management expects global 2026 potash shipments of approximately 74–77 million tonnes, citing fertilizer affordability, low inventories in markets including China and Brazil, and continued global demand growth.

This matters because the Belarus issue currently represents primarily a future pricing/market-share risk, rather than evidence that Nutrien’s existing global demand has collapsed.

3. Why Potash Prices Matter So Much

Nutrien provides a useful sensitivity:

Change	Estimated Nutrien impact
Potash price +$25/tonne	EBITDA +$280M
Potash price −$25/tonne	EBITDA −$280M
EPS sensitivity	approximately ±US$0.45/share

That explains the sharp market reaction. Investors do not need Belarus to take enormous market share for the issue to matter. If additional supply pressures North American potash prices, Nutrien’s earnings sensitivity is meaningful.

However, Reuters reports substantial uncertainty around the Belarus proposal, including transportation limitations, existing contracted Belarusian supply and logistical difficulties.

4. Three-Month Scenarios

Bull Case — C$115–122

Approximately +10% to +17% from C$104.67.

This range would become more plausible if the Belarus arrangement proves small or difficult to execute, global potash pricing remains firm, Nutrien maintains strong shipment expectations, and NTR recaptures C$110–111.

NTR’s 52-week high is approximately C$116.95, so this scenario assumes a retest and possible modest breakout above that level.

Base Case — C$104–112

Approximately −1% to +7%.

This assumes Belarus remains a headline risk but does not materially alter 2026 supply immediately, while potash demand and Nutrien operating results remain relatively strong.

The stock would essentially consolidate after its substantial earlier rally: NTR is still about 24% higher year-to-date, despite the recent decline.

Bear Case — C$92–100

Approximately −12% to −4%.

This becomes more relevant if the U.S.–Belarus agreement turns into meaningful physical shipments, North American potash prices weaken, Nutrien’s expected sales volumes deteriorate, or C$102.50 technical support breaks decisively.

5. Important Catalysts

Two scheduled items matter over the three-month period.

Nutrien’s next quarterly earnings are expected around November 4, while the company has announced an Investor Day for November 30.

There is also a US$0.55 quarterly dividend, with shareholders of record on September 29 receiving payment October 16. Canadian holders receive the CAD equivalent based on the Bank of Canada exchange rate.

What Would Change the View

The key distinction is:

Headline risk: Trump announces cheaper Belarusian potash → NTR sells off.

Fundamental deterioration: Belarus actually ships substantial volumes into the U.S. → North American potash prices decline → Nutrien margins/EPS estimates decline.

At present, the first has happened. The second has not yet been demonstrated. Reuters specifically notes uncertainty about supply availability and logistics.

Train2Invest Tracking Levels

C$102.50 → C$108 → C$110.50 → C$116.95

Those are the levels I would use to determine whether the current move is developing into a deeper correction or simply a pullback within NTR’ s broader 2026 uptrend.

3-month working range: C$104–112 base / C$115–122 bull / C$92–100 bear.

Canada’s six biggest banks are working together to develop tokenized deposits as part of an initiative meant to keep pace with global developments in digital money.

Tokenized deposits are digital representations of traditional bank deposits, recorded on a blockchain or a distributed ledger.

Royal Bank of Canada RY-T -1.23%decrease, Toronto-Dominion Bank TD-T -1.42%decrease, Bank of Nova Scotia BNS-T -1.07%decrease, Bank of Montreal BMO-T -1.20%decrease, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T -1.70%decrease and National Bank of Canada NA-T -1.48%decrease announced the initiative in a joint press release Tuesday.

The announcement follows the passing of Canada’s Stablecoin Act, which received royal assent in March and created the necessary regulatory framework, and similar developments south of the border. The largest U.S. banks are working to launch a tokenized deposit network next year, and JPMorgan Chase JPM-N -0.69%decrease has started offering a deposit token called JPM Coin to its institutional clients.

The Canadian government has been pushing to strengthen the country’s economic sovereignty in response to escalating tensions with its largest trading partner, the United States.

The first phase of the joint project announced Tuesday will involve moving tokenized deposits denominated in Canadian dollars between financial institutions. Experts said the technology can speed up bank-to-bank settlements by using a shared blockchain.

“It’s an efficient way for the banks to settle amongst themselves,” said Todd Roberts, senior partner of national payments and market infrastructure at Deloitte Canada.

Opinion: Why Canada needs a digital dollar

The lenders said their longer term goal is to “connect with other emerging digital assets initiatives,” but did not specify which ones.

BMO, RBC, CIBC, TD Bank and Scotiabank all declined to comment further on the project, while National did not respond to a request for comment.

Canada’s banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, said in a statement earlier this month that tokenized deposits are “not legally distinct from traditional deposits.”

“The underlying technology of a financial product or service does not determine its legal nature. To be clear, we focus on what the product or service is, not how it is built or delivered,” the statement said.

Cristián Bravo, professor and Canada Research Chair in Banking and Insurance Analytics at Western University, said tokenized deposits differ from stablecoins, which are virtual currencies pegged to more stable assets like the U.S. dollar.

“A tokenized deposit is a bank deposit, so it’s protected by all the legislation that supports what banks can do with deposits,” Prof. Bravo said.

The key difference between a tokenized deposit and a regular deposit is that “there will be a blockchain tied to that deposit that will be able to settle automatically,” he noted.

Prof. Bravo said tokenized deposits could serve as an alternative to Canada’s Real-Time Rail payment system, a network thatwill send and receive payments instantly, which has faced delays.

Canadian financial institutions have onlystarted to dabble in digital assets recently.

Opinion: The era of blind pursuit of stability over growth in Canadian banking is finally ending

In May, BMO announced that it hired Imran Ibrahim, the former head of cross-border payment products and new initiatives at CIBC, to a newly created role leading its digital assets and tokenization strategy.

And Wealthsimple Financial Corp. and Visa Canada V-N +0.33%increase recently experimented with using stablecoin to settle payments more quickly.

“There is a bit of an arms race to ensure that major currencies are present in digital tokenized form,” Deloitte’s Mr. Roberts said.

He believes that having a tokenized form of the Canadian dollar is important for the country’s monetary sovereignty. Otherwise, demand for tokenized deposits will go elsewhere – for instance, to U.S.-dollar digital assets.

“The ability to have an interchangeable digital fiat within Canada, and over time looking at exchanging our digital fiat with other nations’ digital fiat, is an important part of how we reinforce our sovereignty,” he said.

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 rose on Tuesday, with the former hitting a fresh all-time intraday high, as oil prices eased for another day.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq was last up 0.4%, supported by a 7% gain in shares of Sandisk following a bullish call from Rosenblatt. The S&P 500 traded up 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 47 points, or 0.1%.

Oil prices moved lower after Iran reportedly offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. To be sure, the reports have not been independently verified by CNBC. Saudi Arabia is also reportedly planning to restart its East-West pipeline as early as this week.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures were last down 1% at roughly $98 per barrel. U.S. crude futures traded 1% lower at around $94 a barrel. Oil prices were pacing for their fifth straight day of losses.

Tuesday’s moves follow a strong session on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 posting its best day since Aug. 4 and the Nasdaq notching its first closing record since June.

A decline in oil prices fueled the stock market’s gains, while Treasury yields pulled back as well. Even prior to the Federal Reserve’s move to hike its key interest rate by a quarter point last week, Treasury yields have been trending higher as the economy contends with rising debt, elevated oil prices and stubborn inflation.

Traders’ attention will turn to this week’s summit in Washington, DC between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Artificial intelligence, the Iran war, tariffs and rare earth metals are expected to be among the key topics covered in the meeting. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent convened with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng prior to Xi’s visit to the U.S.

Heading into Tuesday, traders will watch for the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey, as well as speeches from New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

Cameco Corp. CCO-T +1.39%increase shareholders are expected to share in the company’s massive win on an investment in Westinghouse Electric Co., with the Saskatoon-based uranium miner poised to boost dividends after a planned Westinghouse initial public offering.

Pittsburgh-based Westinghouse, one of the world’s leading nuclear reactor manufacturers, is moving forward on an IPO this fall that analysts estimate will value the company at between US$30-billion and US$50-billion.

Westinghouse is going public as global demand for nuclear power soars. In July, the company reported utilities around the world have ordered up to 91 of its flagship Advanced Passive 1000 reactors, known as the AP1000, for delivery over the next two decades.

The stock market debut and premium valuation will mean major gains for joint owners Brookfield Renewable Partners and Cameco, which acquired Westinghouse in 2023 for US$8.3-billion, including assumed debt.

Chris Cassin: Nuclear reactors produce one byproduct that is key to our future. Canada must stockpile it

In late July, the two owners announced plans to list Westinghouse on a U.S. stock exchange. The company hired at least five investment banks to lead the offering, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

Brookfield Renewable, a subsidiary of Brookfield Corp., owns a 51-per-cent stake in Westinghouse and Cameco holds 49 per cent.

Westinghouse had filed for bankruptcy before Brookfield’s private equity arm bought the company from Toshiba Corp. for US$4.6-billion in 2018.

If Westinghouse does go public, analysts say Cameco is expected to return part of the proceeds from any sale of its stake to shareholders, by raising its common stock dividend.

Cameco doubled its common stock dividend between 2023 and 2025,boosting the payout from 12 cents per share to 24 cents. The increase came a year ahead of the company’s target.

Cameco’s board of directors said it raised dividends in part because Westinghouse made its first cash payment to its owners in 2025, with the miner receiving US$220.5-million. Early this year, Westinghouse handed an additional US$49-million to Cameco.

“We anticipate further improvements to dividends ahead,” said analyst Orest Wowkodaw at Bank of Nova Scotia in a recent report. He projected Westinghouse’s reactor sales and Cameco’s rising uranium production will result in a fivefold increase in the mining company’s free cash flow, to $1.3-billion in 2028.

Brookfield Renewable is also expected to benefit from Westinghouse’s public market debut. In a report, analyst Nelson Ng at RBC Capital Markets said the company will “benefit from growing demand for carbon-free baseload generation and potential valuation uplift from an IPO.”

Westinghouse is going public with orders for 22 AP1000 reactors from U.S. clients, including two units earmarked for the restart of the V.C. Summer power plant in South Carolina, a Brookfield-led project. The company has also sold seven of the reactors to customers in Poland, Bulgaria and Ukraine.

“Timelines and valuation remain uncertain at this point, but we do recognize the potential for a significant valuation should the stated new build pipeline materialize in the 2030s,” mining analyst Katie Lachapelle at Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets said in a report. She predicted an “uplift” in Cameco’s stock price as more details emerge on Westinghouse’s IPO plans.

Westinghouse is also rolling out new power plant technology, including small modular reactors and micro reactors. In a report on Cameco, analyst Andrew Wong at RBC Capital Markets said the development costs on these projects are “relatively moderate” at roughly US$1.2-billion.

“We view Westinghouse as a unique asset with no direct publicly-traded peer which justifies a premium valuation,” Mr. Wong said. Since Mr. Wong published his report, RBC Capital Markets has placed Cameco on what is known as a restricted list and stopped releasing research reports, a common move when an investment bank is doing corporate finance work for a client, such as advising on an IPO.

Westinghouse selected Wall Street banks Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to lead its IPO, along with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the investment banking arms of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Royal Bank of Canada, according to media reports.

U.S. President Donald Trump says the United States is working on a deal to buy potash from Belarus in a bid to reduce dependence on Canadian fertilizer.

In a social media post Monday morning, Trump said prices would be “substantially less” than American buyers pay to Canadian exporters.

The president touted the would-be agreement with the authoritarian state — a close Russian ally — as “very good news” for American farmers and ranchers.

Potash prices skyrocketed after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 but have came down since, though they remain above prewar levels.

America relies heavily on Canadian potash, with Saskatchewan-based producer Nutrien Ltd. saying Canada supplies more than 80 per cent of the potash used on U.S. farms. 

Natural Resources Canada says the United States imported $4.2 billion worth of potash in 2025, or nearly half of Canada’s potash exports.

Still exempt from U.S. tariffs, potash is a key component in fertilizers, and Canada produced about a third of the world’s supply in 2023, followed by Russia and Belarus.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 21, 2026

Priority	Factor	Potential TSX impact
1	Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz	Further supply disruptions could lift WTI and support CNQ, SU and IMO, but intensify inflation and pressure consumer, transportation and industrial stocks.
2	WTI crude above US$100	Positive for energy earnings; negative for fuel-intensive businesses and consumer purchasing power. A sharp oil reversal would weaken the energy-heavy TSX.
3	U.S. interest-rate outlook	Markets will assess whether the Fed’s September rate increase begins a larger tightening cycle. Higher bond yields would pressure technology, utilities, REITs and highly leveraged companies.
4	U.S. inflation and growth data	PCE inflation, GDP revisions, durable-goods orders and weekly jobless claims could change rate expectations. Strong inflation would generally be negative for valuations.
5	U.S.–Canada tariffs	Watch for new exemptions, retaliation or negotiation developments. Greatest risk remains with autos, manufacturing, lumber and consumer goods; energy and potash remain relatively protected.
6	Canadian retail-sales data	Weak spending would pressure consumer discretionary and bank stocks; value retailers could remain comparatively resilient.
7	Global PMI reports	U.S., Canadian, European and Chinese activity indicators will influence expectations for copper, oil and industrial demand.
8	Gold and precious metals	Persistent geopolitical risk and inflation could support AEM, FNV, WPM and ABX. Higher real yields or a stronger U.S. dollar would be negative.
9	Canadian dollar	Further CAD weakness benefits companies earning U.S. dollars but raises imported costs for retailers and manufacturers.
10	Quarter-end positioning	Institutional portfolio adjustments ahead of September 30 may increase volatility, especially in recent winners such as energy, gold and technology.

Base case: A volatile, sector-divergent week—energy and gold supported, while consumer, real estate, utilities and technology remain sensitive to bond yields.

Main falsifier: De-escalation in the Middle East combined with falling oil prices and bond yields would reverse this pattern, weakening energy while supporting rate-sensitive sectors.