Author: Consultant

  • Calendar: Sept. 15 – Sept. 19

    Monday September 15

    Japan markets closed

    China retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

    Euro zone trade surplus

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders for July. Estimates are month-over-month gains of 1.8 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for July. Estimate is a rise of 1.3 per cent from June.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for July. Estimate is a year-over-year increase of 6.5 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s existing home sales and average prices for August. Estimates are rises of 2.0 per cent and 1.0 per cent year-over-year, respectively.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for August. Estimate is a decline of 3.5 per cent year-over-year.

    Tuesday September 16

    Euro zone labour costs and industrial production

    (8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for August. Estimate is an annualized rate decline of 3.1 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI for August. The Street is projecting an increase of 0.1 per cent from July and up 2.0 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for August. Consensus is a rise of 0.2 per cent from July.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for August. Estimate is a decline of 0.3 per cent from July and a 0.2-per-cent drop year-over-year.

    (9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for August.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for September.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for July.

    Earnings include: Ferguson Enterprises Inc.; NanoXplore Inc.; WildBrain Ltd.

    Wednesday September 17

    Japan trade deficit

    Euro zone CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for July.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for August. The Street is projecting an annualized rate decline of 4.4 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for August. Consensus is an annualized rate increase of 0.6 per cent.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement with press conference to follow.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement and summary of economic projections with press briefing to follow.

    Earnings include: General Mills Inc.

    Thursday September 18

    Japan core machine orders

    Bank of England monetary policy announcement

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for July.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Sept. 13. Estimate is 245,000, down 18,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index for September.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for August.

    Earnings include: Darden Restaurants Inc.; FedEx Corp.; Lennar Corp.

    Friday September 19

    Japan CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for July. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.8 per cent.

  • Barrick sells only Canadian mine to Carcetti Capital for up to $1.09-billion

    Barrick Mining Corp. ABX-T -1.74%decrease is selling Hemlo, its only Canadian mine, to Carcetti Capital Corp. CART-H-X +2.50%increase for up to US$1.09-billion.

    Toronto-based Barrick put Hemlo up for sale earlier in the year, deeming it a “non-core” asset.

    Carcetti will pay Barrick US$875-million, and US$50-million in its shares upfront. Additionally, Barrick stands to receive up to US$165-million contingent on production from the mine and the price of gold over a five-year period.

    Barrick takes $1-billion writedown on Mali operations as government dispute drags on

    Barrick in a release said the proceeds will further strengthen its balance sheet, and support its commitment to return capital to shareholders.

    Earlier this year, it sold its 50-per-cent stake in the Donlin gold project in Alaska for US$1-billion.

    Fahad Tariq, an analyst with Jefferies, said in a note to clients that Barrick is selling at an attractive valuation and that stock buybacks from the Hemlo sale make sense given that its shares trade at a steep discount to its peers.

    Barrick announced the Hemlo sale days after Canada’s Teck Resources Ltd. TECK-B-T +1.34%increase agreed to a takeover by Britain’s Anglo American PLC. NGLOY -1.67%decrease for roughly US$20-billion. Some market watchers have speculated that Barrick could launch a rival proposal for Teck. London-based Anglo is not paying a premium for Teck, leaving an opportunity for other bids to surface.

    Barrick has made no secret of its desire to grow its copper business. The company recently changed the name of the company from Barrick Gold to Barrick Mining as a reflection of its increased focus on copper. Barrick already operates copper mines in Zambia and Saudi Arabia, and it has started construction on a gigantic new copper and gold mine in Pakistan.

    The world’s biggest gold miners are streamlining their portfolios to zero in on their biggest and most profitable operations, and cashing out during a time of record high gold prices.

    Late last year, Denver-based Newmont Corp. NGT-T -0.62%decrease, the world’s biggest gold miner, sold its Musselwhite mine in Ontario to Vancouver-based Orla Mining Ltd. NGT-T -0.62%decrease for around US$850-million.

    Carcetti Capital plans to change its name to Hemlo Mining Corp. after the transaction with Barrick closes. Its management and board includes former Teck geologist Robert Quartermain. Later in his career, he founded gold miner Pretium Resources Inc., which was acquired by Australia’s Newcrest Mining Ltd. He was also previously the CEO of SSR Mining Inc.

  • Consumer prices rose at annual rate of 2.9% in August, as weekly jobless claims jump

    • The consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%.
    • The Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, the highest since October 2021.
    • The reports provide the final pieces of a complicated data puzzle that central bankers will review at their two-day policy meeting that concludes Sept. 17.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/11/consumer-prices-rose-at-annual-rate-of-2point9percent-in-august-as-weekly-jobless-claims-jump.html

  • Teck agrees to be acquired by Anglo American at crucial time for Canada’s minerals industry

    ck Resources Ltd. TECK-B-T +11.53%increase has agreed to be acquired by British mining giant Anglo American PLC NGLOY +10.87%increase in a deal that could result in one of the last remaining Canadian major critical minerals miners being swallowed up by a foreign buyer.

    Vancouver-based Teck on Tuesday said it had reached a friendly deal to be acquired by London-based Anglo in an all-stock transaction.

    Under the deal, Teck’s shareholders will receive 1.3301 shares of Anglo in exchange for their securities, which equates to an “at the market” deal, meaning no premium is being paid by Anglo.

    The new company will be renamed Anglo Teck, will be worth about $50-billion and will become the world’s fifth-largest copper producer. Anglo shareholders will end up owning 62.4 per cent of the company and Teck shareholders will own 37.6 per cent.

    What Anglo American brings is further world class copper assets, as well as some very high quality iron ore, in combination with the zinc that we have in the portfolio,” said Jonathan Price, CEO of Teck, in an interview.

    “What we’re creating here is a very large and very high quality copper-focused mining company.”

    For the deal to close it must first be approved by the federal government. Ottawa will scrutinize the transaction to make sure there are no national-security concerns, and it must make economic sense for Canada under the net benefit test.

    Eric Reguly: Teck is making the best of a bad situation with the Anglo American deal. But it may never happen

    With Teck potentially falling into foreign hands, Canada’s influence and power in the global critical minerals industry appear to be fading ata time when politicians of all stripes have called for this country to build up its homegrown industries to fight a vicious trade war with the U.S.

    Critical minerals are used in a wide range of technologies, including electric vehicles, fighter jets, wind turbines and consumer electronics.

    Over the past few decades, many of Canada’s biggest mining champions have been acquired by foreign buyers, including Alcan Inc., Falconbridge Ltd., Noranda Inc. and Inco Ltd.

    Pierre Lassonde, co-founder of Franco-Nevada Corp. FNV-T -0.26%decrease, the world’s biggest mining royalty company, said in an interview thatthe sale of Teck is a tragedy for the Canadian mining industry, but one that is largely of Teck’s making, owing to its poor execution over many years.

    “I think that Jonathan Price should be nominated to the Canadian Mining Hall of Shame, and the entire board of Teck should join him,” he said.

    Teck is selling the company during a period of significant operational weakness and share price underperformance, driven by the poor execution at its giant Quebrada Blanca copper mine in Chile, also known as QB2.

    Teck CEO Jonathan Price says the deal would create ‘a very large and very high quality copper-focused mining company.’Marcos Zegers/The Globe and Mail

    Teck put the high-altitude mine in the mountains of northern Chile into production in 2023. But the US$8.7-billion project went 85 per cent over budget, and it has struggled with grade shortfalls, production misses, cuts to guidance and persistent drainage issues at its tailings dam.

    Anglo on paper has a better shot of making QB2 work than Teck on its own. The British company owns 44 per cent of the nearby Collahuasi mine, and it will attempt to combine the two operations. That is expected to add US$1.4-billion a year to earnings,the companies said on Tuesday, including the ability to process high-grade ore from Collahuassi at QB2’s newly constructed plant.

    Teck undertaking major overhaul at QB2 mine in Chile after years of struggles

    This isn’t the first time a foreign buyer has targeted Teck, but the Canadian miner has much less ability to defend itself this time.

    Teck’s history goes back to 1913, when Hughes Gold Mines Ltd. started a gold mine in Teck Township on the shores of Kirkland Lake, Ont. TheKeevil familyhas been involved in the company since the 1950s. Norman B. Keevil, now in his late 80s, is one of Teck’s controlling shareholders.

    Two years ago, when another foreign mining company, Glencore PLC GLCNF +5.58%increase of Switzerland, tried to buy Teck, Mr. Keevil refused to sell, famously telling The Globe and Mail that “Canada is not for sale.”

    But he has no such objections this time around. He told The Globe on Tuesday that he will usehis super voting A shares in support of the takeover, and that Anglo’s scale will help Teck enormously.

    “It makes us both better companies,” he said. “Teck’s future is secured. It will become more resilient.”

    If Anglo succeeds in buying Teck, Anglo’s CEO, Duncan Wanblad, who was born in South Africa, will become the CEO of Anglo Teck. Mr. Price, a Briton who became Teck’s CEO in 2022, will become the deputy CEO. The operational headquarters of the company will be in Vancouver, where both executives, along with the senior management teams, will be based.

    If Ottawa allows the deal to proceed, it will be making an exception to its own policies around foreign ownership of Canadian critical minerals assets. Ottawa in 2023 tightened its already stringent rules, saying it would allow acquisitions of large Canadian critical minerals companies only under the most exceptional circumstances.

    In a statement on X on Tuesday, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said that “any new investments must support our core mission of building one economy in the best interests of Canadians.”

    Teck does not appear to have shopped the company widely before agreeing to the takeover by Anglo, which opens the company up to competing bids from other suitors.

    When asked in the interview whether Teck ran an auction for the company, Mr. Price signalled that the company focused its efforts on getting a deal done with Anglo.

    Exchangeable Anglo Teck shares mean Canadian investors could defer capital gains tax

    Tyler Tebbs, founder of event-driven research firm Tebbs Capital, said in an interview that Teck could see competing bids from Vale SA VALE-N -0.96%decrease, Freeport-McMoRan FCX-N -5.94%decrease, or BHP Group Ltd BHPLF +2.05%increase, whose technical and engineering skills he rates highly.

    “QB2 is an engineering debacle,” he said. “Having BHP would be great.”

    Mr. Tebbs said Glencore, which is a part owner of Collahuasi alongside Anglo, may also try again to buy Teck.

    While Glencore a few years ago failed in its attempt to acquire all of Teck, it ended up acquiring a majority stake in Teck’s legacy coal business.

    Anglo didn’t consult with Glencore before launching its Teck takeover proposal and Mr. Wanblad in an interview acknowledged that he has no idea whether the Swiss miner might still have ambitions to buy Teck.

  • Uranium market heats up on nuclear revival hopes

    • Demand for uranium is forecast to rise by nearly a third by 2030 and to more than double by 2040, according to the World Nuclear Association.
    • There’s “momentum in the industry which we have not seen for decades,” Boris Schucht, CEO of uranium enrichment firm Urenco, told CNBC.
    • But accelerated permitting, mining innovations and new explorations of uranium will need to take place to meet growing demand, according to the WNA.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/10/uranium-market-heats-up-on-nuclear-revival-hopes.html

  • China’s consumer prices fall more than expected in August as deflation woes persist

    • The consumer price index dipped 0.4% last month from a year earlier, worse than economists’ forecast for a 0.2% contraction.
    • Core CPI, stripping out the volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.9% from a year earlier.
    • The producer price index dropped 2.9% in August from a year ago, in line with economists’ estimates.

    China’s consumer prices fell more than expected in August while deflation in factory-gate prices persisted, as calls mounted for Beijing to ramp up measures to bolster sluggish domestic demand and cushion weakening exports growth.

    The consumer price index dipped 0.4% last month from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Wednesday, compared with Reuters-polled economists’ forecast for a 0.2% contraction.

    Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.9% from a year earlier, according to the official release.

    The producer price index dropped 2.9% in August from a year ago, in line with economists’ estimates in a Reuters poll.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/10/china-cpi-august-deflation-.html

  • USA: Payrolls rose 22,000 in August, less than expected in further sign of hiring slowdown

    • Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, lower than the 75,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
    • The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June.
    • Health care again led by sectors, adding 31,000 jobs, while social assistance contributed 16,000. Wholesale trade and manufacturing both saw declines of 12,000 on the month.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/jobs-report-august-2025.html

  • Internal government list of 32 potential infrastructure projects includes new oil pipeline

    A draft list of 32 major projects that could be candidates for fast-track approvals under the new Building Canada Act includes a pipeline that would bring Alberta oil through northwest British Columbia to the Pacific Coast.

    Such a project is a priority for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, but the B.C. government has questioned the practicality of a new oil pipeline and said it should not receive any public funding.

    Ms. Smith has said she’s working with oil companies on a new pipeline proposal and that she’s confident she can convince B.C. Premier David Eby of the project’s merits.

    The draft list, a government document obtained by The Globe and Mail, describes potential projects based on proposals Ottawa has received from premiers and other groups in recent months. It is not meant to be a final list, and it does not imply that any of the projects mentioned have been approved for inclusion, but it does provide a sense of the options on the government’s radar.

    One of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s core campaign pledges in this year’s federal election was to identify and fast-track large projects as a way of spurring the Canadian economy, which is facing strong headwinds from U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies.

    Mr. Carney and the country’s premiers have offered examples of projects that could qualify for federal support and potentially be expedited, but this list is the first to mention specific Canadian companies that would benefit and to group numerous options together.

    Carney lays out federal criteria for fast-tracking infrastructure projects

    Opinion: A nation-building project list alone won’t build a nation

    Western premiers have been pushing for a Western trade and economic corridor, which is included on the list of 32 projects. The conversations have focused on road and energy infrastructure, with Ms. Smith saying she would like pipelines included.

    The document describes the corridor project as being in the “concept” phase and says a Northwest Coast Oil Pipeline project “could be pursued within an economic corridor.”

    The list describes the pipeline project as one that would link “Canadian heavy crude to markets in Asia.”

    Coastal First Nations in B.C. have called on Ottawa to reject any new oil pipeline to the northwest coast.

    Bill C-5, approved by Parliament in June, brought in the Building Canada Act. It allows the government to designate specific projects as being in the national interest, meaning they can then qualify for a faster approval process. Inclusion on the list does not necessarily mean the project would receive public funding from the federal government.

    The process will be overseen by a new Major ProjectsOffice. The government recently announced that it will be based in Calgary and led by veteran energy executive Dawn Farrell. She is a former president and chief executive officer of Trans Mountain, who oversaw the completion of the pipeline project linking Alberta and the B.C. Coast.

    The document was circulated within the department of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada. It is not clear who created the list.

    What federal Bill C-5, the One Canadian Economy Act, is all about

    The department referred questions about the document to the office of Dominic LeBlanc, the Minister responsible for Canada-U.S. Trade, Intergovernmental Affairs and One Canadian Economy. Mr. LeBlanc’s office provided a statement that did not comment directly on the document.

    “Throughout the summer, Canada’s new government has been working with provinces, territories, industry, and Indigenous proponents to identify potential projects of national interest per the criteria of the Building Canada Act,” said Mr. LeBlanc’s spokesperson Gabriel Brunet. “In the coming weeks, the federal government will be announcing an initial set of projects that are under consideration for a national interest designation, or for a general referral to the Major Projects Office.”

    Mr. Brunet said that before any final decisions are made, the Major Projects Office will undertake consultations with Indigenous peoples and other relevant parties.

    “We are confident that the designated projects will help diversify our trading relationships and unlock Canada’s full economic potential,” he said.

    The list in the document includes two projects that were recently mentioned by Mr. Carney, who said that an announcement on some major projects would be made within two weeks.

    Ottawa to back port expansions as part of infrastructure push

    Speaking in Berlin on Aug. 26, Mr. Carney said his government will make investment announcements related to building new infrastructure for ports, including those at Churchill, Man.; the Port of Montreal in Contrecoeur, Que.; and on the East Coast. He softened his language later in the day, saying it was a possibility that those projects could be among the first to be listed under C-5.

    The list obtained by The Globe includes the Contrecoeur and Churchill port projects, as well as upgrades to the Port of Saint John and the Port of Belledune in New Brunswick.

    The list of projects covers all provinces and territories. In addition to several port projects, it includes transportation projects such as roads, bridges, various mines and a range of energy projects, including oil and gas, nuclear, hydroelectric and offshore wind power projects and major new transmission lines. Some of the projects on the list are already in development. It also names specific companies that are behind various proposals.

    Most projects on the list also include an estimate of the total cost of capital expenditures, or CAPEX, that would be involved.

    The eight mining projects on the list include the Teck Strategic Minerals Initiative and the Red Chris Copper and Gold Mine expansion in B.C.; Saskatchewan’s Foran McIlvenna Bay and Rook Uranium projects; the Minago Nickel Project in Manitoba; the Crawford Nickel Project and the Ring of Fire in Ontario; and the Strange Lake Torngat Metals Ltd. rare earths mine in Quebec.

    The 14 energy-related projects feature a heavy focus on Western Canada. The list includes a 750-kilometre transmission line linking Yukon and B.C. Other B.C. projects include LNG Canada Phase 2, which would expand the liquefied natural gas facility in Kitimat, B.C.; Ksi Lisims LNG, backed by the Nisga’a Nation; the North Coast Transmission Line that would help power critical-mineral mines; a dredging project at the Port of Vancouver that would accommodate fully loaded oil tankers in Burrard Inlet; and the Northwest Coast Oil Pipeline.

    In Alberta, the list includes the Pathways Alliance proposal for a carbon capture and storage project.

    Analysis: Carney tied carbon capture to new pipelines. Here’s how it could finally get built

    The Taltson Hydro Expansion project in the Northwest Territories is on the list, as is the Iqaluit Hydroelectric Project for Nunavut.

    A plan to build new small modular reactors at Ontario’s existing Darlington Nuclear Generating Station – recently estimated to cost $20.9-billion – is included.

    Five other projects are in Eastern Canada, including the Gull Island Power Plant that is part of the Quebec-Newfoundland and Labrador new energy partnership; Newfoundland’s Bay du Nord offshore oil and gas project; transmission lines linking Prince Edward Island to the New Brunswick-Nova Scotia power grid; and proposed wind energy projects off the coast of Nova Scotia.

    The five ports projects on the list also include the construction of a deep-water port and all-season roads linking Yellowknife to the Arctic Ocean, and a new Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project at the Port of Vancouver.

    Speaking last week in Berlin, the Prime Minister said a “new port, effectively, in Churchill” would open up “enormous” liquefied natural gas and other opportunities. However, energy industry experts have questioned the merits of a Churchill port expansion, given the limited shipping seasons because of Arctic ice.

    The document says the Port of Churchill expansion would be a multimodal rail and port trade corridor that could potentially include transmission lines to Nunavut and funding for icebreakers.

    “With investments, the port has the potential to develop facilities for grain, minerals, potash, LNG and crude oil exports,” the document states.

    Rounding out the list are five projects related to transportation. They include the Mackenzie Valley Highway project in NWT; various proposals to twin the Trans-Canada Highway; rehabbing the century-old New Westminster Rail Bridge in B.C.; the Alto High-Speed Rail project linking Toronto and Quebec City; and the proposed Western trade and economic corridor.

  • Canada: August unemployment rate reaches nine-year high outside of pandemic

    The Canadian economy shed 66,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.1 per cent, the latest signs that the labour market is reeling from prohibitive U.S. tariffs.

    Outside of the pandemic, the unemployment rate now resides at the highest level since 2016, Statistics Canada said Friday in a report, rising from 6.9 per cent in July. The numbers show that the bulk of job losses in August were in part-time work.

    U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods have been squeezing the economy for several months, with gross domestic product tumbling at a 1.6-per-cent annualized rate in the second quarter. Combined with Friday’s weak labour numbers, the Bank of Canada could be pushed to cut its benchmark interest rate – currently at 2.75 per cent – at its next meeting in under two weeks.

    “The ugly employment numbers released today should be enough to push those who had been in the ‘no cut’ camp to reassess their outlooks,” said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Bank, in a Friday morning note. He predicted that the bank would cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month, and ultimately reduce them to 2 per cent.

    Doug Porter, Bank of Montreal’s chief economist, said the weak jobs report “reinforces any bias” for the central bank to ease rates. But he also cautioned that the next inflation report – released a day before the BoC’s decision on Sept. 17 – will be influential.

    https://charts.theglobeandmail.com/RrDlW/6

    Ontario led employment declines last month, with 26,000 jobs lost, followed by British Columbia with 16,000 fewer jobs.

    Much like previous months, the highest unemployment rates in Ontario were concentrated in manufacturing hubs. Windsor had an unemployment rate of 11.1 per cent in August, compared to 9.1 per cent in January, before the start of the trade war. Oshawa’s unemployment rate climbed to 9 per cent in August from 8.2 per cent in January. Toronto’s unemployment rate stood at 8.9 per cent, relatively unchanged since January.

    The data also suggested a more concerning trend: that employment decreases have spread beyond manufacturing and resources – directly hit by tariffs – to the broader service sector. In particular, the professional and scientific sectors saw 26,000 job losses, or a 1.3-per-cent decline in employment.

    “Following mixed signals from labour data throughout 2025, the August numbers are the clearest signal that the job market has stalled,” wrote Brendon Bernard, senior economist at the job search company Indeed Canada, in a note. Mr. Bernard emphasized that only some job weakness represented the trade war’s impact on the economy, but there continues to be significant difficulty finding new work among those who are already unemployed, building off last year’s trend.

    Returning students are facing the worst job market in 16 years (excluding the pandemic), according to youth unemployment data from Statscan. Between May and August this year, the unemployment rate for that demographic stood at 17.9 per cent. It was 18 per cent in the summer of 2009.

    The number of self-employed workers also fell drastically in August, with 43,000 job losses, a decline of 1.6 per cent. Self-employment has been sliding for months now, a sharp contrast to the job gains amongst self-employed individuals recorded in the second half of 2024.

    Mr. Porter noted that the weakening job market was having an impact on wage growth. Average hourly wages grew by 3.2 per cent in August, a slight year-over-year decline.

    The U.S. job market also continued its summer stall, adding just 22,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3 per cent last month, the highest it has been since November, 2021. Job losses were concentrated in goods-producing sectors, with the manufacturing industry losing roughly 12,000 jobs last month.

    Mr. Mendes, of Desjardins, predicts that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025.