Author: Consultant

The Bank of Nova Scotia reported $2.30 billion in first-quarter net income, up from $993 million a year earlier.

The bank says the profit amounted to $1.73 per diluted share for the quarter ended Jan. 31, up from 66 cents per diluted share in the same period a year earlier.

Revenue totalled $9.65 billion, up from $9.37 billion.

Scotiabank says its provision for credit losses was $1.18 billion for the quarter, up from $1.16 billion a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, Scotiabank says it earned $2.05 per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from $1.76 a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for an adjusted profit of $1.95 per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 24, 2026.

International Business Machines stock is getting slammed, becoming the latest victim of rapidly developing AI technology, after Anthropic’s Claude announced COBOL capabilities.

Shares of IBM fell 11% in Monday afternoon trading after Anthropic outlined a new use case for its Claude Code product: automating the exploration and analysis work that drives most of the complexity in COBOL modernization.

COBOL, short for Common Business-Oriented Language, is a decades-old programming language used widely in business data processing, which is a core business area for IBM. COBOL continues to power systems responsible for large volumes of transactions, including payment processing and retail transaction systems, making it a prime target for cost-efficient AI disruption.

In a Monday blog post, Anthropic wrote that COBOL handles an estimated 95% of ATM transactions in the U.S., for example.

“Hundreds of billions of lines of COBOL run in production every day, powering critical systems in finance, airlines, and government. Despite that, the number of people who understand it shrinks every year,” the Anthropic blog post reads. “AI excels at streamlining the tasks that once made COBOL modernization cost-prohibitive.”

It then explained that Claude Code can help modernize COBOL codebases by mapping dependencies across thousands of lines of code, documenting workflows and identifying risks that “would take human analysts months to surface.”

“Legacy code modernization stalled for years because understanding legacy code cost more than rewriting it. AI flips that equation,” the blog post says.

IBM is the latest stock to fall on AI fears, which have rattled investors in recent weeks and contributed to a volatile “sell first and ask questions later” trading environment. On Friday, a slew of cybersecurity companies tumbled after Anthropic unveiled a new capability it built into Claude Code, called Claude Code Security, that it said is capable of scanning codebases for security vulnerabilities and finding software vulnerabilities for humans to review. The sector remained under pressure in Monday’s session.

Monday’s sell-off brought IBM shares down nearly 22% year to date.

Canada’s biggest banks are set to post higher profits as elevated trading activity boosted by volatile equity markets is expected to curb the impact of softening loan demand from consumers and businesses.

Analysts broadly expect profits to rise in the mid-single-digit percentage points in the first quarter as the lenders continue to shrug off concerns over the U.S. trade war.

“Notwithstanding the still-unresolved tariff-related uncertainties, the Canadian banks’ business diversification (which resulted in mid-teens percentage earnings growth last year) has benefited their shareholders,” BMO analyst Sohrab Movahedi said in a recent note.

The first quarter “is unlikely to be a major inflection point. As we await resolution around tariffs, we expect a continuation of last year’s earnings drivers.”

On Tuesday, Bank of Nova Scotia BNS-T -1.65%decrease will be the first major bank to report earnings for the three months ended Jan. 31. Bank of Montreal BMO-T -2.63%decrease and National Bank of Canada NA-T -0.02%decrease will report results on Wednesday. Royal Bank of Canada RY-T -1.37%decrease, Toronto-Dominion Bank TD-T -1.54%decrease and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T -0.94%decrease will wrap up earnings week on Thursday.

Canadian bank stocks have edged higher by 4.2 per cent this year, trailing the S&P TSX Composite Index’s 6.5 per cent climb.

Clients continue to turn to the banks’ capital-markets and wealth-management businesses for trading and advisory services to grab a piece of whipsawing equity markets. Analysts expect this elevated activity to offset dampened borrowing in personal and business banking.

Based on regulatory data for the first month of the quarter, loans grew modestly, Bank of Nova Scotia analyst Mike Rizvanovic said in a note to clients.

“We remain positive on the large Canadian banks heading into Q1 earnings season that we suspect will once again feature strong results in market-sensitive businesses, upside to all-bank margins that will help keep [net interest income] growing despite only modest loan volumes, and credit losses remaining in a very manageable range in the absence of any signs of meaningful deterioration in the economic outlook,” Mr. Rizvanovic said.

Analysts expect provisions for credit losses – the money banks set aside to cover sour loans – to edge higher slightly, easing from their stark upward trajectory in recent years amid concerns over an economic downturn. The provisions are a closely watched measure of financial stress among customers.

Canada’s unemployment rate improved in January, suggesting that Canadian consumers and businesses will continue to withstand economic shocks. But credit card trust data – an indicator of consumer credit strength – pointed to rising delinquencies, according to CIBC analyst Paul Holden.

Overall, the banks have ample provisions to weather an economic downturn, and Mr. Holden said there is room for reserves to be released in the U.S. as regional banks recently set aside fewer provisions than expected. Lenders unwind reserves when confidence increases in the ability of consumers and businesses to pay off their loans. The release of built-up reserves also bolsters the banks’ profits.

“In Canada, however, given the still-uncertain macro backdrop, we believe it is still too early to see releases,” Mr. Holden said.

“The banks have updated their forecasts for 2026 unemployment and GDP growth, which have improved from last quarter. This would typically indicate the possibility to release performing provisions, but we believe it is still too early given heightened uncertainty in the outlook.”

Loblaw Cos. Ltd. L-T +2.14%increase says it plans to spend $2.4-billion to expand and renovate its store network and supply chain capabilities this year as it looks to open 70 new stores.

The grocery and drugstore retailer says its plan includes 34 new Shoppers Drug Mart/Pharmaprix pharmacies and care clinics and 31 No Frills and Maxi stores.

The new stores will come as the company also renovates 191 stores.

The parent company of Loblaws and Shoppers Drug Mart is also expected to continue work on a new automated distribution centre in Caledon, Ont.

The spending is part of the company’s five-year plan to spend $10-billion by 2030.

Loblaw is expected to report its fourth-quarter and full-year results on Wednesday.

The S&P/TSX Composite climbed 2.3 per cnet for the trading week ending with Friday’s close and stands 6.9 per cent higher for 2026 including dividends. The benchmark’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 63 leaves it in the upper reaches of technically neutral territory, much closer to the overbought RSI sell signal of 70 than the oversold buy signal of 30.

There are six index constituents with attractive RSIs below the buy signal this week. Thomson Reuters Corp. is the most oversold company followed by Allied Properties REIT, CGI Inc., Enghouse Systems Ltd., Kinaxis Inc and Superior Plus Corp.

There are 18 benchmark stocks with RSIs above the overbought warning at 70. Winpak Ltd. is the most overbought company followed by Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd., ATCO Ltd., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Canadian Utilities Ltd.

The list of S&P/TSX Composite stocks trading at new 52-week highs is enormous at 39 and they are ranked by market cap in a table below. The biggest companies making new highs are Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Bank of

BANK WEEK:  The Big Five Canadian banks are set to report this week with Scotiabank BNS-T -1.63%decrease first out of the gates Tuesday, BMO BMO-T -2.71%decrease and National Bank NA-T -0.04%decrease Wednesday, and RBC RY-T -1.47%decrease, CIBC CM-T -1.06%decrease and TD TD-T -1.61%decrease Bank reporting on Thursday. The earnings come as the group is trading at a record high and a premium to their historical average. This might seem counterintuitive considering the concerns about Canada’s economy, but the group is forecast to put up double-digit earnings growth this year. “Strong fundamentals … continue to support elevated multiples,” wrote TD Securities analyst Mario Mendonca in a preview note to clients. Indeed, the banks do seem to be humming along. They are all buying back stock at the same time – a rarity, Mr. Mendonca said. Credit quality isn’t a major issue, U.S. loan growth is papering over softness in Canada, net interest margins aren’t under pressure, cost discipline has been a key focus. High valuations could be one of the main risks. “While banks are not directly connected to the tech sector,” Mr. Mendonca said, “a shift from tech to value stocks should support [insurers] over the banks.”

‘Nertia: Nvidia NVDA-Q +0.11%increase will report results Wednesday after the bell as the chipmaker’s stock has stagnated. The results used to be appointment viewing – people were gathering at bars to watch their release. But the trading action on the stock after earnings has been downright pedestrian for the last three earnings reports – moving less than 4 per cent. The stock is still hugging its record high but hasn’t really done much in the last six months. The business, on the other hand, continues to go gangbusters. Sales are expected to surge 67 per cent from last year and free cash is expected to double to US$33-billion. While this is eyewatering growth for a US$4.6-trillion company, investors have seemingly grown wary of the tech trade with the sector underperforming the broader market. There are also concerns about the impending competition. Just last week there were reports Google wants to take on Nvidia and sell their own artificial-intelligence chips. But all those headwinds could be a positive set-up into earnings. “Given middling stock performance, supply chain signals that remain bullish, and a management team that seems frustrated with the prevailing doubts around growth and margin sustainability, the earnings set-up here seems positive,” wrote UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri.

SaaS-pocalypse: One of the biggest victims of the software selloff, Salesforce CRM-N -5.29%decrease, reports Wednesday afternoon. The sales management software provider has been cut roughly 40 per cent over the past year on fears that AI will replace its offering and their attempts to fight back aren’t strong enough. “We continue to hear about underwhelming Agentforce usage and core product demand,” wrote Citi analyst Tyler Radke in a preview note referencing Salesforce’s AI platform. Mr. Radke’s checks include talking with customers and tracking Salesforce website visits and notes that both have been negative. He’s an outlier, however. Most analysts still rate Salesforce a buy and expectations are for double-digit top-line growth, which the company hasn’t managed to achieve since 2024.

Down the aisle: Loblaw L-T +2.04%increase reports results Wednesday morning with the stock trading near record levels. Food inflation has been supportive with CPI for food stores up nearly 5 per cent in January. “Food CPI backdrop continues to favour grocers with strong value proposition and likely to keep shaping consumer shopping patterns,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Irene Nattel in a preview note to clients. “Loblaw is earning its place in that group, with a disciplined operating model and commitment to its financial framework, notably bookended by sustainable top-line growth and return of capital to shareholders.”

GDP and Me: Canadian GDP for the fourth quarter and December will be out Friday and is expected to show a softening economy. The fourth-quarter consensus estimate is that the economy contracted 0.4 per cent after growing 2.6 per cent in the previous quarter. “The silver lining to a soft-looking quarter is that most of the weakness was concentrated in October and November with industry reports for December mostly positive,” wrote RBC Economics. Of course, key for Canada’s economy will be the future of tariffs. Investors will be watching for U.S. President Donald Trump’s response to the U.S Supreme Court ruling that tariffs enacted under emergency measures were illegal. Most of Canada’s exports were already exempt because of the continental free-trade agreement, but that could be upended this year. “We continue to view maintaining CUSMA-related exemptions more important for Canada than the [Supreme Court] ruling itself,” wrote RBC.

THIS IS AN OPINION

Executive Summary (next week: Feb 23–27, 2026)

• Starting point: S&P/TSX Composite closed 33,817.51 on Feb 20 (record high) after a +2.25% weekly gain, helped by reduced tariff uncertainty plus strength in financials and materials.
• Base case (most likely): Range-bound to modestly higher for the week (~0% to +1%) as the index digests the rally into Canada’s Q4 & Dec GDP and key U.S. data.
• Main macro catalyst: Canada GDP (Fri)—a downside surprise would likely hit banks, consumer, and domestically exposed cyclicals; an upside surprise supports risk appetite but could push yields higher.
• Main geopolitics tail risk: Middle East energy risk (Strait of Hormuz disruptions, even temporary) can re-price oil quickly—benefits energy producers, pressures transport/consumer via inflation expectations.
• Where TSX has support: Current leadership remains materials/energy/industrials, consistent with major Canadian strategy views that stay modestly constructive on those sectors.

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Key Drivers (macro → sector)

1) Macro: Growth + rates impulse (Canada vs U.S.)

• Canada: The week culminates with Quarterly GDP (Q4) plus Monthly GDP (Dec) (Fri). These prints can move Canadian front-end yields and re-price the “BoC path,” which usually transmits most to financials and rate-sensitive domestic cyclicals.
• U.S.: Consumer confidence (Tue), jobless claims (Thu), and PPI (Fri) can shift global risk sentiment and USD—important because TSX leadership has been commodity-heavy, and commodities often react to USD and real rates.

2) Sector mechanics: TSX is still commodity + banks heavy

• Materials: Still the “swing factor” on many days—recent TSX strength has been tied to gold/copper momentum.
• Energy: Geopolitical supply risk can lift crude; however, de-escalation can unwind the risk premium quickly. Iran’s temporary Strait of Hormuz closure for drills underscores this two-way volatility.
• Financials: A GDP downside surprise typically hurts credit expectations; upside surprises can lift growth but also lift yields (mixed for banks depending on curve dynamics).

3) Geopolitics & trade: two-sided shock potential

• Trade policy sensitivity is elevated: TSX’s latest push to highs was partly tied to reduced tariff uncertainty after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling limiting unilateral tariff actions (as reported).
• Supply-chain disruption risk persists: Russian strikes affecting Ukraine’s Black Sea port throughput have raised export costs and reduced capacity—relevant for global grains/industrial supply chains (and can indirectly influence Canadian resource and fertilizer narratives via price effects).

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Data & Evidence (what hits the tape next week)

Date	Release/Event	Why it matters for TSX	TSX sensitivity (typical)
Mon Feb 23	US: Chicago Fed Nat Activity; Factory Orders	Early read on U.S. growth tone	Moderate (sentiment, USD)
Tue Feb 24	US: Consumer Confidence; Case-Shiller; Wholesale Trade Sales	Risk appetite + rates expectations	Moderate
Thu Feb 26	CA: Current Account (Q4); CA: SEPH (Dec); US: Jobless Claims	Canada external balance + labour/earnings proxy; U.S. labour pulse	Moderate–High for banks/CAD
Fri Feb 27	CA: Quarterly GDP (Q4) + Monthly GDP (Dec); US: PPI (Jan); CA: BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey	Primary macro catalyst for Canada; inflation pipeline for U.S.; credit conditions	High (index-level)
Ongoing	Middle East / Hormuz risk	Oil risk premium affects inflation expectations	High (energy-led)

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Valuation Logic (how the market is likely to “score” the week)

This is a 1-week horizon, so “valuation” mostly transmits through rates + commodities + risk premium, not long-term DCF changes.

• If Canada GDP is weak: markets typically price more easing / slower growth → banks + domestic cyclicals underperform; bond proxies may catch a bid; TSX can still be cushioned if gold stays strong.
• If oil spikes on geopolitics: TSX can outperform global peers short-term (energy weight), but the second-order effect is inflation risk → higher yields → pressure on rate-sensitive equities.

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Risks (what can break the base case)

• Event risk into Friday: With both Canada GDP and U.S. PPI on the same day, cross-asset volatility (rates/FX/commodities) can rise.
• Oil tail risk is binary: Even “temporary” Hormuz disruptions can force a fast repricing of energy and inflation hedges.
• Crowding at highs: TSX is at/near record levels—good news may already be partially priced, increasing sensitivity to “less-bad vs good” surprises.

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Scenarios (weekly total return on TSX; probabilities are subjective)

Bull (25%) — +1% to +2.5%

• Canada GDP prints better than feared and U.S. data doesn’t re-ignite inflation anxiety; commodities hold firm; risk premium stays contained.

Base (50%) — 0% to +1%

• Mixed macro prints; TSX consolidates near highs; leadership remains materials/financials, with energy reacting to headlines.

Bear (25%) — -1.5% to -3.5%

• Canada GDP disappoints and/or U.S. inflation pipeline (PPI) surprises higher, lifting yields; or a sharp geopolitical escalation sparks broad risk-off (even if oil up).

What would disprove the base case quickly

• A decisive breakout above highs with broad participation (not just materials/energy) would argue for stronger risk appetite than assumed.
• A >~2% down day on benign data would signal positioning/technical fragility rather than macro-driven pricing.

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Actionable Takeaways (no advice language)

• Treat Fri (Canada GDP + U.S. PPI) as the week’s main volatility window; most other releases are secondary unless they surprise sharply.
• Expect TSX leadership to remain commodity-and-bank influenced; watch oil and gold as the quickest real-time “explainers” for intraday moves.

THIS IS AN OPINION

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) on Friday closed down -0.04 (-0.06%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) closed down -0.0093 (-0.46%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices settled lower on Friday amid concerns about energy demand after the US Q4 GDP grew at a slower-than-expected pace.  However, losses in crude were limited due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Friday’s weaker-than-expected US economic news was bearish for energy demand and crude prices.  Q4 GDP rose +1.4% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of +2.8%.  Also, the Feb S&P manufacturing PMI fell -1.2 to 51.2, weaker than expectations of no change at 52.4.  In addition, the University of Michigan US Feb consumer sentiment index was revised lower by -0.7 to 56.6, weaker than expectations of no change at 57.3.

Crude prices jumped to a 6.5-month high on Thursday amid mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East.  President Trump on Friday ramped up pressure on Iran to strike a deal over its nuclear program, saying he’s considering a limited military strike on Iran to force it to accept a deal over its nuclear program.  On Thursday, Mr. Trump said 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the “maximum” he would allow for negotiations to continue, and “We’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them.”  

Axios reported Wednesday that there’s no evidence of a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran on a nuclear deal, and any military operation against Iran would likely be a joint US-Israeli campaign that could last for weeks and be much broader in scope than last month’s US operation in Venezuela.  Meanwhile, the US Department of Transportation recently issued a maritime advisory stating that American-flagged ships should stay as far as possible from Iranian waters when navigating the Strait of Hormuz.  Iran is OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, and a US attack on the country could disrupt its 3.3 million bpd of crude production and potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes.  

Wednesday’s US-brokered meeting in Geneva to end the war between Russia and Ukraine ended early as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy accused Russia of dragging out the war.  Russia has said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved with Ukraine, and there’s “no hope of achieving a long-term settlement” to the war until Russia’s demand for territory in Ukraine is accepted.  The outlook for the Russia-Ukraine war to continue will keep restrictions on Russian crude in place and is bullish for oil prices.

Mounting crude supplies in floating storage are a bearish factor for oil prices.  According to Vortexa data, about 290 million bbl of Russian and Iranian crude are currently in floating storage on tankers, more than 50% higher than a year ago, due to blockades and sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude.  Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell by -8.2% w/w to 86.95 million bbl in the week ended February 13.

An increase in crude exports from Venezuela is also boosting global oil supplies and is bearish for prices.  Reuters reported last Monday that Venezuelan crude exports rose to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December.

Last Tuesday, the EIA raised its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.60 million bpd from 13.59 million bpd last month, and raised its US 2026 energy consumption estimate to 96.00 (quadrillion btu) from 95.37 last month.  The IEA last month cut its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.7 million bpd from last month’s estimate of 3.815 million bpd.  

On February 1, OPEC+ said it would stick to its plan to pause production increases through Q1 of 2026.  OPEC+ at its November 2025 meeting announced that members would raise production by +137,000 bpd in December, but will then pause the production hikes in Q1-2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus.  OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of production left to restore.  OPEC’s January crude production fell by -230,000 bpd to a 5-month low of 28.83 million bpd.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past six months, limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies.  Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea.  In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Thursday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of February 13 were -6.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +3.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -5.8% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending February 13 rose +0.2% w/w to 13.735 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd from the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended February 20 was unchanged at 409, just above the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19.  Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
 

Monday February 23

Japanese markets closed

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for December. The Street is projecting a month-over-month increase of 1.0 per cent.

Earnings include: Dominion Energy Inc., Emera Inc., Oneok Inc., Ovintiv Inc., Whitecap Resources Inc., Winpak Ltd.

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Tuesday February 24

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report Estimate for Feb. 7.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December. Analyst estimate is a rise of 0.3 per cent from November and up 1.2 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for December. Analyst estimate is a rise of 0.3 per cent from November and up 1.8 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale trade for December.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for February.

Also: U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address

Earnings include: Bank of Nova Scotia, Exchange Income Corp., GFL Environmental Holdings Inc., Home Depot Inc., HP Inc.

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Wednesday February 25

Euro zone and Germany’s CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for January.

Also: Canada’s Capital Expenditure Survey for 2026

Earnings include: Bank of Montreal, CCL Industries Inc., Ebay Inc., EQB Inc., Hut 8 Corp., Loblaw Companies Ltd., Lowe’s Companies Inc., National Bank of Canada, Northland Power Inc., Nvidia Corp., Snowline Gold Corp., Stantec Inc., TJX Companies Inc., WSP Global Inc.

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Thursday February 26

Japan’s machine tool orders

Euro zone economic and consumer confidence

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board CEO Confidence Index for Q4.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s current account balance for Q4.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours for December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Feb. 21.

Also: Alberta’s provincial budget is released.

Earnings include: Atco Ltd., Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Canadian Utilities Ltd., Chartwell Retirement Residences, Dell Technologies Inc., Denison Mines Corp., Gildan Activewear Inc., Pembina Pipeline Corp., Quebecor Inc., Royal Bank of Canada, Salesforce Inc., Stella-Jones Inc., Toronto-Dominion Bank

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Friday February 27

Japan’s retail sales, industrial production and Tokyo’s CPI

ECB’s three-year CPI expectations

Germany’s unemployment, CPI and retail sales

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s Real GDP for Q4. The Street is projecting a decline of 0.4 per cent on an annualized basis.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly Real GDP for December. The consensus is a month-over-month gain of 0.1 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI for January. The Street is expecting a rise of 0.3 per cent from December and up 2.9 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for December.

Also: Ottawa’s Fiscal Monitor for December is expected.

Earnings include: Boralex Inc., Endeavour Silver Corp., Energy Fuels Inc., Laurentian Bank of Canada, TransAlta Corp.